Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -6.3 270
Results Rating -7.7 287
Consistency 0.17 271
Pace 63.8 307
Improvement -5.4 351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 191 D+ C- B- D D+
Defense D 321 D D D+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 265 D- 51% 334 -4.2 326
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 69 C- 37% 207 +1.3 112
Three Pointers 40% 208 C+ 35% 117 +0.3 165
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 283 D+ -2.0 251
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 263
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 151 D+ 0.96 290 C- 0.30 196
Opponents' Steals B 8.1% 55
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 223
Turnovers B- 15.7% 108
Freethrows D 0.27 295 C- 71% 239 D 0.19 300
Total Offense C -0.9 191

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 35% 345 C- 11.7% 225
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 349 C+ 4.3% 133
Three Pointers F 72% 353 F+ 1.9% 347
Total F 42% 359 C- 6.0% 225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 21 D+ 62% 297 +5.9 349
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 272 D 42% 308 -0.4 156
Three Pointers 37% 295 D+ 36% 273 -0.9 146
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 329 D +3.5 313
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 326
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 266 D 1.12 305 D 0.36 305
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 255
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 230
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 258
Freethrows D- 0.37 339 C- 73% 217 D- 0.27 335
Total Defense D -5.4 321

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 274 D 7.6% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 97 C- 4.3% 203
Three Pointers D+ 86% 255 D+ 0.5% 252
Total C- 57% 213 D+ 4.4% 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.0 330 16.8 83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 290 0.24 349
Consistency 0.15 328 0.18 365
Improvement -1.7 276 -3.7 338

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 287 271 252
Results Rating Rank 307 281 255
Conference Record 6 - 16 7 - 15 8 - 14
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 18% 1% 35%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 42 - 11
Quad 47 - 89 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 8% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -25 D -6 D- F A+ F -21 F F D
 Sun, Nov 16 40 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  12% 0 - 2 B +8 D+ -3 C D+ B A +10 A+ C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 338 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 70% +8  98% 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 B+ D+ B- F -11 F B+ F+
 Sat, Nov 22 94 High Point L 80 - 91 13% -5  37% 1 - 3 D+ -5 A- +10 D- A+ A+ F -16 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 85 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 17% +5  96% 2 - 3 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 B+ A C B+ +6 C+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 253 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 34% -3  17% 2 - 4 1 - 1 D -9 D -5 F A A- D -5 D- B- F+
 Mon, Dec 8 193 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 24% -8  1% 2 - 5 1 - 2 C +0 B+ +8 B+ A- C- F+ -8 F B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 50 @TCU L 65 - 69 4% +4  76% 2 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B+ D+ B- B+ +5 A F D
 Sun, Dec 21 310 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 70% +10  93% 3 - 6 B+ +12 B+ +9 B- B- A+ B +4 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 290 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 66% +4  87% 4 - 6 2 - 2 C -2 C- -2 C- B- B+ C -0 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 294 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 67% +9  96% 5 - 6 3 - 2 B- +6 D -5 D- F A+ A+ +12 B A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 17% -8  1% 5 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 C- -1 F D+ A F+ -9 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @Lamar L 51 - 63 28% -5  5% 5 - 8 3 - 4 D- -12 F -16 C- F D B- +2 C- B A
 Mon, Jan 12 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 11% -7  6% 5 - 9 3 - 5 C- -3 F -23 F F C- A+ +20 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 61% -4  14% 6 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -7 C+ +2 D- A+ D F+ -9 F C+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 308 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 70% -11  12% 6 - 10 4 - 6 F -34 F -12 F C A+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 46% -10  2% 6 - 11 4 - 7 D- -13 D+ -3 B D F F -11 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 294 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 45% +6  75% 6 - 12 4 - 8 D -11 D -5 C- D F D -6 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 144 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 34% -7  13% 6 - 13 4 - 9 F+ -15 A +14 A+ D- D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 25% +4  90% 7 - 13 5 - 9 C+ +3 B- +4 A- F B- C -1 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 85 @McNeese St. L 64 - 81 7% -6  2% 7 - 14 5 - 10 D+ -7 C+ +2 B- A- F F -11 F A- F+
 Mon, Feb 9 290 @SE Louisiana L 62 - 74 43% -12  6% 7 - 15 5 - 11 F+ -17 D+ -4 F D B- F -14 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 253 Nicholls St. L 83 - 91 57% -9  0% 7 - 16 5 - 12 F+ -16 B+ +9 D- A- A+ F -26 F B- F
 Mon, Feb 16 193 New Orleans L 64 - 78 45% -8  4% 7 - 17 5 - 13 F -19 F+ -10 D+ F D F -10 B+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 308 @East Texas A&M W 82 - 73 48% +5  94% 8 - 17 6 - 13 C+ +3 A+ +24 C+ A+ B+ F -19 F F F
 Mon, Feb 23 269 @Northwestern St. L 49 - 54 38% -0  44% 8 - 18 6 - 14 D -8 F -19 F F C- A +10 B A- D+
 Sat, Feb 28 220 Lamar W 70 - 69 50%
 Mon, Mar 2 103 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 75 24%
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 15 -6 C -1 F D+ D+ D -5 C+ C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D- C- C+ D+ 36% 48% 40% D+ D+ C+ D+ C- B- D C- D D D+ D D+ D 45% 18% 37% D D D+ D D D+ D- C- D-
1.07 51% 37% 35% -2 -1 0.97 31% 1.0 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.16 62% 42% 36% +3 +1 1.11 32% 1.1 .36 15% .37 73% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado St. D C- A- F D- 26% 28% 46% D D- F F F A+ A- F C F F F F F 32% 18% 50% B- F F+ F F D F F F
0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20 1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49
Nov
16		 Indiana D+ F+ F A+ C+ 26% 41% 33% F C D- C+ D+ B F B F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 7% 45% D- A+ F A- C- B- F A F
0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33
Nov
20		 Southern Indiana B- B B+ A+ A- 55% 27% 18% C- B+ C+ D- D+ B- A+ F A F F F A+ F 42% 21% 37% D F A C- B+ F+ D+ F F+
1.19 64% 43% 44% +7 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30 1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25
Nov
22		 High Point A- F+ B+ D D 32% 22% 46% D- D- B+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ F D F B+ D+ 56% 8% 35% F D F F F D+ F F F
1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31 1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45
Dec
1		 McNeese St. C+ A F A+ A 26% 28% 46% F B+ B+ A- A C A+ D+ A B+ B F A+ C+ 42% 29% 29% A- C+ A- F D A+ B- F C-
1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34 1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23
Dec
6		 Nicholls St. D F+ F F F 42% 31% 27% F+ F A- B- A A- A+ D A+ D A A+ F D 49% 10% 41% F D- A- F+ B- F+ F D- F
1.03 53% 29% 8% -16 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41 1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47
Dec
8		 New Orleans B+ F A+ A A 22% 28% 50% F B+ C A+ A- C- C D+ C F+ F+ F F F 50% 24% 26% D F D+ A+ B+ A+ F D- F
1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26 1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41
Dec
15		 TCU B- C- F A+ B+ 43% 18% 39% B- B+ D+ C- D+ B- F F F B+ F A A+ A 44% 24% 31% B- A A- F F D F C- F
1.01 52% 22% 47% +2 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10 1.08 70% 27% 14% -7 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32
Dec
21		 Northern Arizona B+ D+ C- A+ B- 34% 15% 51% D+ B- B C- B- A+ A+ F+ A+ B D A- F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ C
1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33 0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19
Dec
30		 SE Louisiana C- F F A+ C- 31% 22% 47% C- C- D A+ B- B+ F C F C B- A+ A+ A 50% 16% 34% F B F+ A C+ D+ C F D-
1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20 0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26
Jan
3		 Houston Christian D B- A- F D- 36% 20% 45% D D- F D F A+ F C+ F+ A+ B+ B+ A A- 53% 19% 28% F+ B D+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A
1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15 0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11
Jan
5		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F D- B- F 40% 26% 34% C- F B+ F D+ A C+ C- C F+ D- F B+ C+ 35% 8% 58% D- C F D F D+ D F F
1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25 1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24
Jan
10		 Lamar F A F C- D+ 44% 22% 33% C+ C- C- F F D D- F F B- A F D+ C+ 47% 22% 31% F C- D- A+ B A F C+ F
0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12 1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23
Jan
12		 Stephen F. Austin F D F+ F F 53% 24% 22% C+ F F+ F F C- C- F D A+ B A A+ A+ 39% 27% 33% C- A+ D+ D+ D+ A- F A+ F+
0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18 0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22
Jan
17		 Northwestern St. C+ F A+ B D 35% 28% 37% F+ D- C A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ F F C F 47% 19% 35% F F B D C+ B+ F C- F
1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42 1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36
Jan
19		 East Texas A&M F F B F F 39% 24% 37% D- F B- D+ C A+ C- A+ B F D- F F F 51% 9% 40% F F F F F F F+ D F
0.96 37% 42% 17% -17 0 0.67 35% 1.1 .38 10% .29 88% .26 1.33 65% 50% 39% +8 +2 1.22 32% 1.6 .52 10% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ C- B+ A- B 39% 18% 43% C B B F D F F F F F B- F F F 55% 20% 25% D- F F F F A- F A F
1.03 58% 44% 38% +4 0 1.10 33% 0.7 .22 25% .29 60% .17 1.15 50% 50% 50% +4 +1 1.13 39% 1.2 .45 22% .67 58% .39
Jan
27		 Houston Christian D F A+ A+ C- 39% 18% 43% C- C- A- F D F A+ F B+ D B- A- A B 61% 15% 24% F C+ F F F B- F F F
1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25 1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50
Jan
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley A A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 27% 40% D A+ A- F D- D- B A- B+ F F F F F 42% 14% 44% D F B+ F F F F F+ F
1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29 1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27
Feb
2		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- B F A+ A- 52% 18% 30% B A- F F F B- B C- B- C D B+ D+ D- 43% 28% 30% B D A A+ A C- F F F
1.08 65% 25% 46% +7 +1 1.18 20% 0.5 .10 18% .45 71% .32 1.05 60% 31% 36% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.7 .16 17% .42 74% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 McNeese St. C+ F D+ A+ C+ 39% 9% 52% B+ B- A+ F+ A- F A+ F A+ F F A+ F F 53% 9% 37% F F A- B+ A- F+ F A+ F
1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41 1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36
Feb
9		 SE Louisiana D+ C- F C- F 29% 33% 38% F F B- F D B- D- A+ C+ F B- F D F 32% 26% 43% C+ F+ F+ F F F B- B+ B
1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30 1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18
Feb
14		 Nicholls St. B+ F A+ D+ F+ 49% 7% 44% A- D- B- A- A- A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F 65% 6% 29% F F A- F+ B- F F D+ F
1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17 1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25
Feb
16		 New Orleans F+ D D+ C- D+ 38% 17% 46% C D+ C F F D A+ D- A- F A F A B+ 35% 26% 39% B- B+ C- F F F F B+ F
0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32 1.21 44% 50% 28% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42
Feb
21		 East Texas A&M A+ F A+ A- B- 31% 21% 48% F+ C+ A A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F F+ D F F 31% 20% 49% B F F F+ F F A B A-
1.43 46% 56% 40% +4 -1 1.10 43% 2.1 .91 14% .33 94% .30 1.28 67% 40% 42% +9 -1 1.18 40% 1.1 .43 10% .16 63% .10
Feb
23		 Northwestern St. F F F F F 40% 24% 36% D+ F F+ D- F C- D+ D- D A D A+ B- B- 34% 36% 30% B+ B B- A+ A- D+ D- C D-
0.82 44% 27% 25% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 67% .20 0.90 60% 25% 31% -6 -2 0.86 21% 0.9 .18 15% .37 74% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7.4 7.4 7th
8th 4.8 4.8 8th
9th 37.9 0.4 38.3 9th
10th 26.1 10.8 36.9 10th
11th 11.7 0.2 11.9 11th
12th 0.7 0.7 12th
Total 38.4 48.9 12.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
7-15 48.9% 48.9
6-16 38.4% 38.4
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 1.8% 16.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 38.4%