Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#192
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#212
Pace62.8#338
Improvement+2.2#32

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#120
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#250
Layup/Dunks-0.3#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement+2.2#26

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#302
First Shot-4.4#321
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#145
Layups/Dunks-5.8#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#63
Freethrows-1.7#284
Improvement+0.0#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 11.9% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.0
.500 or above 50.3% 68.0% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 82.2% 60.8%
Conference Champion 5.9% 14.1% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.0% 4.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round6.9% 11.9% 4.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 87 @Colorado St. L 64-98 15%     0 - 1 -24.6 -4.5 -22.4
  Sun, Nov 16 22 @Indiana L 61-69 4%     0 - 2 +10.1 +2.5 +6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 314 Southern Indiana W 87-81 73%     1 - 2 -2.2 +8.8 -11.3
  Sat, Nov 22 86 High Point L 80-91 21%     1 - 3 -4.6 +12.9 -18.2
  Mon, Dec 1 82 McNeese St. L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Dec 6 270 @Nicholls St. W 71-70 54%    
  Mon, Dec 8 205 @New Orleans L 72-74 43%    
  Mon, Dec 15 51 @TCU L 64-79 8%    
  Sat, Dec 20 249 Northern Arizona W 75-69 71%    
  Tue, Dec 30 250 SE Louisiana W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Jan 3 276 Houston Christian W 72-65 75%    
  Mon, Jan 5 202 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 199 @Lamar L 66-68 42%    
  Mon, Jan 12 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 285 Northwestern St. W 74-66 76%    
  Mon, Jan 19 308 East Texas A&M W 74-65 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-67 67%    
  Mon, Jan 26 276 @Houston Christian W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-74 63%    
  Mon, Feb 2 226 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-70 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 82 @McNeese St. L 64-76 15%    
  Mon, Feb 9 250 @SE Louisiana L 68-69 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 270 Nicholls St. W 74-67 73%    
  Mon, Feb 16 205 New Orleans W 75-71 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 308 @East Texas A&M W 71-68 60%    
  Mon, Feb 23 285 @Northwestern St. W 71-69 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 199 Lamar W 69-65 62%    
  Mon, Mar 2 139 Stephen F. Austin L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.3 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.7 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.9 0.3 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.2 6.0 7.8 9.1 10.7 11.1 10.7 9.8 8.9 6.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
20-2 92.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1
19-3 79.6% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0
18-4 52.2% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.0
17-5 32.2% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-6 11.7% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-7 4.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.2% 50.0% 50.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.5% 38.5% 38.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-3 1.5% 35.3% 35.3% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0
18-4 2.7% 26.7% 26.7% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.0
17-5 4.5% 23.3% 23.3% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.4
16-6 6.5% 22.3% 22.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.0
15-7 8.9% 13.7% 13.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 7.6
14-8 9.8% 7.7% 7.7% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.0
13-9 10.7% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 10.3
12-10 11.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.8
11-11 10.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 10.6
10-12 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.0
9-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
8-14 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
7-15 4.2% 4.2
6-16 2.9% 2.9
5-17 1.6% 1.6
4-18 0.8% 0.8
3-19 0.4% 0.4
2-20 0.2% 0.2
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.4 93.0 0.0%