Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #187
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #229
Pace 64.6 #299
Improvement -0.3 #205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #197 D+ D+ A F D
Defense #185 C C- C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #267 1.09 #265 -3.1 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #71 0.70 #252 +1.5 #96
Three Pointers 38% #238 1.02 #169 -1.1 #233
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #249 -2.7 #249
Freethrows 14.4 #320 69% #289 9.9 #326
Second Chance 30.2% #196 0.95 #290 0.29 #255
Turnovers 13.5% #25
Total Offense -1.1 #197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #28 1.19 #228 -4.7 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.84 #303 +0.0 #187
Three Pointers 36% #303 0.91 #60 +4.2 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #192 -0.5 #193
Freethrows 19.5 #290 74% #231 14.3 #68
Second Chance 31.6% #222 1.08 #240 0.34 #244
Turnovers 16.8% #171
Total Defense -0.5 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #298 1.6% #309
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #228 -0.6% #171
Possession Length 18.4 #290 16.6 #78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #304 0.23 #328
Improvement -4.6 #358 +4.3 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.8% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 41.4% 47.1% 22.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 71.3% 43.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.3% 3.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 412 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 97 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 18% -18  0 - 1 -26 -4 F F A+ -24 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 31 @Indiana L 61 - 69 5% -10  0 - 2 +9 +0 C D+ A+ +8 A+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 343 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 82% +8  1 - 2 -5 +7 B+ C B- -13 F B- F
 Sat, Nov 22 87 High Point L 80 - 91 22% -5  1 - 3 -4 +13 D A+ A+ -18 D+ F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 80 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 28% +5  2 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +4 A- A- C+ +4 A F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 205 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 42% -3  2 - 4 1 - 1 -7 -1 F A+ A+ -6 D+ B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 245 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 51% -8  2 - 5 1 - 2 -3 +8 A- A- D -11 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 45 @TCU L 65 - 69 7% +4  2 - 6 +11 +7 A- D+ C+ +3 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 296 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 81% +10  3 - 6 +13 +15 B B+ A+ -1 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 266 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 76% +4  4 - 6 2 - 2 +0 +1 C- B- A- -2 B+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 301 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 81% +9  5 - 6 3 - 2 +6 -3 F F A+ +10 A A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 48% -8  5 - 7 3 - 3 -14 +1 F D- A+ -16 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @Lamar L 51 - 63 44% -5  5 - 8 3 - 4 -12 -11 C- F C- -2 D B+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 20% -7  5 - 9 3 - 5 -3 -18 F F D +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 276 Northwestern St. W 74 - 66 77%
 Mon, Jan 19 321 East Texas A&M W 75 - 64 85%
 Sat, Jan 24 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 66 60%
 Mon, Jan 26 301 @Houston Christian W 70 - 67 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 68 69%
 Mon, Feb 2 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 69 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 80 @McNeese St. L 65 - 77 13%
 Mon, Feb 9 266 @SE Louisiana W 68 - 67 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 205 Nicholls St. W 74 - 70 64%
 Mon, Feb 16 245 New Orleans W 79 - 73 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 321 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 67 68%
 Mon, Feb 23 276 @Northwestern St. W 71 - 69 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 220 Lamar W 68 - 63 66%
 Mon, Mar 2 108 Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 69 40%
Totals 13 - 15 11 - 11 -2 -1 D+ D+ A -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.3 7.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 20.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 8.0 8.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 22.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 6.4 6.7 1.9 0.2 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.2 5.3 1.6 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.0 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.5 5.9 10.4 15.1 18.3 17.8 14.4 9.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 22.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 3.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.2% 17.5% 17.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-6 1.1% 12.8% 12.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-7 3.9% 9.6% 9.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.5
14-8 9.2% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 8.5
13-9 14.4% 5.3% 5.3% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 13.7
12-10 17.8% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 17.2
11-11 18.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.9
10-12 15.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.1 0.2 14.9
9-13 10.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.3
8-14 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.9
7-15 2.5% 2.5
6-16 0.9% 0.9
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.4 96.6 0.0%