Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#310
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#260
Pace68.1#234
Improvement-1.0#257

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#272
First Shot-6.7#349
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#35
Layup/Dunks-3.9#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#308
Freethrows+0.1#163
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#324
First Shot+0.7#139
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#358
Layups/Dunks+0.0#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#190
Freethrows-0.2#204
Improvement-0.7#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 6.2% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 22.5% 29.8% 12.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 50.3% 36.7%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.6% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 8.5% 14.6%
First Four2.5% 2.8% 2.0%
First Round3.8% 4.9% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Away) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 411 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 37 @Wake Forest L 65-81 3%     0 - 1 -0.8 -7.5 +8.7
  Sun, Nov 9 34 @Georgia L 81-120 2%     0 - 2 -22.9 +5.3 -23.4
  Tue, Nov 11 38 @Clemson L 56-83 3%     0 - 3 -11.9 -0.4 -16.1
  Fri, Nov 21 137 @East Tennessee St. L 62-77 12%     0 - 4 -10.4 -3.3 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 83-80 72%     1 - 4 -11.1 +2.2 -13.4
  Sat, Nov 29 355 @IU Indianapolis W 89-87 58%    
  Tue, Dec 2 118 @Murray St. L 73-87 9%    
  Sat, Dec 6 275 @Presbyterian L 65-70 33%    
  Tue, Dec 16 248 Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 50%    
  Sat, Dec 20 314 @Southern Indiana L 74-77 40%    
  Thu, Jan 1 306 @Lindenwood L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 3 204 @SIU Edwardsville L 64-72 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 263 Tennessee Martin W 71-70 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Jan 15 224 @Tennessee St. L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 322 @Tennessee Tech L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 353 Western Illinois W 72-65 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 329 Eastern Illinois W 71-67 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 204 SIU Edwardsville L 67-69 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 306 Lindenwood W 75-72 60%    
  Thu, Feb 5 211 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 263 @Tennessee Martin L 67-73 32%    
  Thu, Feb 12 322 Tennessee Tech W 73-69 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 224 Tennessee St. L 75-76 46%    
  Thu, Feb 19 329 @Eastern Illinois L 68-70 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 353 @Western Illinois W 69-68 55%    
  Tue, Feb 24 314 Southern Indiana W 77-74 62%    
  Thu, Feb 26 248 @Arkansas Little Rock L 67-73 30%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.5 1.1 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.0 1.1 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 2.8 1.1 0.1 9.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 6.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.1 8.0 10.3 11.6 12.2 11.4 9.5 8.4 6.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 97.9% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-4 89.4% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 64.5% 1.7    0.9 0.6 0.1
14-6 35.0% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 8.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 42.0% 42.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
17-3 0.6% 35.1% 35.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.3% 33.9% 33.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.9
15-5 2.6% 27.6% 27.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9
14-6 4.4% 20.9% 20.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.5
13-7 6.1% 14.9% 14.9% 15.9 0.1 0.8 5.2
12-8 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 7.7
11-9 9.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.0
10-10 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 11.1
9-11 12.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.0
8-12 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
7-13 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
5-15 6.1% 6.1
4-16 3.9% 3.9
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.9 95.0 0.0%