Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.3 #304
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #265
Pace 65.0 #292
Improvement +1.6 #97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #284 D+ C D C C-
Defense #308 D+ C D+ C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.10 #257 -0.4 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #80 0.74 #197 +1.7 #91
Three Pointers 34% #310 0.94 #271 -4.7 #323
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #272 -3.3 #273
Freethrows 17.4 #186 72% #203 12.6 #186
Second Chance 33.6% #104 0.91 #327 0.31 #206
Turnovers 18.4% #290
Total Offense -4.1 #284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.18 #205 -1.7 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #324 0.80 #262 +1.5 #83
Three Pointers 44% #104 1.06 #242 -2.3 #281
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #264 -2.5 #265
Freethrows 18.6 #252 73% #206 13.6 #116
Second Chance 37.4% #352 0.89 #24 0.33 #218
Turnovers 15.0% #274
Total Defense -4.3 #308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #256 1.6% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #261 3.2% #246
Possession Length 18.9 #331 17.0 #136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #268 0.27 #360
Improvement +1.9 #76 -0.3 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 8.1% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 16.9% 31.7% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 88.5% 66.4%
Conference Champion 6.0% 13.6% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four2.8% 4.2% 2.4%
First Round3.3% 6.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 412 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 57 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 4% -8  0 - 1 -4 -9 F C+ D- +7 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 23 @Georgia L 81 - 120 1% -21  0 - 2 -20 +7 F A+ C- -22 F F D
 Tue, Nov 11 33 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0 - 3 -10 +3 F A+ C -17 C F F
 Fri, Nov 21 119 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 10% -2  0 - 4 -9 -3 C F F -7 A F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 354 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 69% +0  1 - 4 -10 +2 C C- C- -12 C- C F
 Sat, Nov 29 353 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 58% -2  1 - 5 -15 -11 F F F -3 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 89 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 6% -10  1 - 6 -22 -16 F F C -7 B+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 292 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 36% -3  1 - 7 -13 +0 C+ F C -13 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 56% +10  2 - 7 1 - 0 +4 -4 F C F +7 A C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 343 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 50% -5  3 - 7 2 - 0 -4 -4 F D B+ +0 C+ B- B
 Thu, Jan 1 252 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 28% -6  3 - 8 2 - 1 -15 -8 F D+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 33% -2  4 - 8 3 - 1 -3 +9 A+ F F -11 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 225 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 43% +15  4 - 9 3 - 2 -14 +2 C+ C+ F -17 D+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 224 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 43% -4  5 - 9 4 - 2 -4 +7 A+ D D- -11 C B F
 Thu, Jan 15 226 @Tennessee St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Sat, Jan 17 314 @Tennessee Tech L 71 - 73 42%
 Thu, Jan 22 357 Western Illinois W 71 - 62 81%
 Sat, Jan 24 311 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 65 62%
 Thu, Jan 29 278 SIU Edwardsville W 68 - 67 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 252 Lindenwood W 75 - 74 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 225 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 73 24%
 Thu, Feb 12 314 Tennessee Tech W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 226 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 311 @Eastern Illinois L 65 - 68 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 357 @Western Illinois W 68 - 65 62%
 Tue, Feb 24 343 Southern Indiana W 74 - 68 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 283 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68 - 72 35%
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 9 -8 -4 D+ C D -4 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.3 0.8 0.1 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.6 4.4 0.8 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.2 6.8 1.3 0.1 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.3 8.0 1.8 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 7.5 3.2 0.1 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 5.9 3.8 0.3 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.4 8.8 13.3 16.6 17.8 15.6 11.2 6.2 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 89.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-5 73.1% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1
14-6 33.4% 2.1    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1
13-7 7.5% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.2% 34.4% 34.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.8% 32.1% 32.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6
15-5 2.9% 18.8% 18.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 2.4
14-6 6.2% 17.2% 17.2% 15.9 0.1 1.0 5.2
13-7 11.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.9 0.1 1.2 10.0
12-8 15.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 14.8
11-9 17.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 17.4
10-10 16.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 16.4
9-11 13.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.2
8-12 8.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
7-13 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 1.6% 1.6
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.9 95.3 0.0%