Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#145
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#121
Pace70.8#158
Improvement+0.2#161

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#147
First Shot+1.1#146
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#219
Layup/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows+1.4#102
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#167
First Shot+1.3#128
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#281
Layups/Dunks-4.6#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#20
Freethrows+1.0#118
Improvement+0.2#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 22.0% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 85.5% 91.6% 76.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 84.1% 74.5%
Conference Champion 26.7% 30.8% 20.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.2% 4.5%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round19.4% 21.9% 15.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 264 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 61%     1 - 0 +4.5 +2.4 +1.0
  Fri, Nov 21 158 St. Thomas L 72-73 52%     1 - 1 -1.4 -3.6 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 22 274 @Portland W 86-80 OT 63%     2 - 1 +2.8 +0.6 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 23 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 80%     3 - 1 -4.7 +7.0 -12.2
  Wed, Nov 26 323 @Air Force W 71-53 71%     4 - 1 +12.4 +7.4 +7.6
  Wed, Dec 3 256 @Nebraska Omaha W 79-77 60%    
  Sat, Dec 6 286 South Dakota W 87-77 83%    
  Tue, Dec 16 24 @Texas Tech L 66-83 5%    
  Sat, Dec 20 300 Denver W 82-71 85%    
  Sun, Dec 28 72 @Colorado L 72-83 17%    
  Thu, Jan 1 186 @Montana St. L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 191 @Montana L 78-79 46%    
  Thu, Jan 8 230 Idaho St. W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 229 Weber St. W 80-73 75%    
  Thu, Jan 15 156 @Portland St. L 74-76 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 272 @Sacramento St. W 79-76 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 186 Montana St. W 74-69 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 249 @Northern Arizona W 76-74 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 168 Idaho W 75-71 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 240 Eastern Washington W 81-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 5 229 @Weber St. W 77-76 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 230 @Idaho St. W 71-70 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 272 Sacramento St. W 82-73 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 156 Portland St. W 77-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 249 Northern Arizona W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 240 @Eastern Washington W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 168 @Idaho L 72-74 44%    
  Mon, Mar 2 191 Montana W 81-76 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.5 7.0 5.9 3.5 1.5 0.3 26.7 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 6.4 5.3 2.4 0.5 0.1 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.9 3.4 0.7 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.5 0.2 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.4 0.2 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 3.2 5.4 7.7 10.0 11.9 12.7 12.8 11.5 9.5 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 98.5% 3.5    3.4 0.1
15-3 92.6% 5.9    5.0 0.9 0.0
14-4 73.6% 7.0    4.9 1.9 0.2
13-5 48.0% 5.5    2.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 20.0% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.7% 26.7 18.2 6.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 62.5% 62.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.5% 51.7% 51.7% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7
16-2 3.6% 48.0% 48.0% 12.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9
15-3 6.4% 40.3% 40.3% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.8
14-4 9.5% 31.7% 31.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 6.5
13-5 11.5% 26.7% 26.7% 13.8 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 8.5
12-6 12.8% 21.7% 21.7% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 10.0
11-7 12.7% 17.2% 17.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 10.6
10-8 11.9% 12.4% 12.4% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 10.4
9-9 10.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.2
8-10 7.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 7.1
7-11 5.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.2
6-12 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.1
5-13 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.4 6.7 3.9 1.1 80.5 0.0%