Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.0 #174
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #159
Pace 70.8 #130
Improvement -2.0 #282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #136 B C C C- C+
Defense #235 C+ C F D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.24 #94 +0.9 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.82 #93 -0.4 #200
Three Pointers 45% #112 1.07 #122 +3.1 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #89 +3.6 #86
Freethrows 15.7 #273 74% #129 11.7 #242
Second Chance 27.8% #258 1.11 #104 0.31 #193
Turnovers 16.8% #193
Total Offense +0.8 #136

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.17 #184 -4.5 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.79 #247 -0.3 #199
Three Pointers 34% #344 0.84 #18 +6.5 #7
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +1.8 #120
Freethrows 18.5 #243 75% #290 13.9 #91
Second Chance 25.9% #35 1.20 #330 0.31 #157
Turnovers 12.2% #361
Total Defense -1.9 #235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #151 1.3% #284
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #80 -4.6% #92
Possession Length 17.4 #183 17.0 #146
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #338 0.15 #87
Improvement -0.3 #205 -1.6 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 16.0% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 85.8% 94.5% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 81.6% 56.4%
Conference Champion 5.4% 12.3% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.0% 3.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.0% 16.0% 10.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 412 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 286 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 62% +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 C+ C F -0 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 128 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 39% +5  1 - 1 +1 -4 C B+ F +5 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 233 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 50% +2  2 - 1 +5 +1 C C A- +3 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 60% +4  3 - 1 +0 +9 C B- A+ -9 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 342 @Air Force W 71 - 53 76% +5  4 - 1 +10 +7 A+ F C+ +5 A C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 258 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 56% +1  5 - 1 +3 +3 B F C +0 A- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 282 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 80% +2  6 - 1 -8 +2 A+ F D- -10 D- C D+
 Tue, Dec 16 21 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 4% -7  6 - 2 +8 +27 A+ A+ B+ -19 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 280 Denver L 79 - 86 80% +2  6 - 3 -17 -6 D F C -11 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 73 @Colorado W 86 - 81 14% +2  7 - 3 +16 +13 A+ C D- +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 161 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 36% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +1 C A F -12 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 186 @Montana L 79 - 88 41% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -8 +0 F C B- -7 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 196 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 66% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +13 A+ F A- -4 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 197 Weber St. L 71 - 76 66% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -10 -2 D- B- D -8 C- A- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 145 @Portland St. L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Jan 17 307 @Sacramento St. W 84 - 79 67%
 Mon, Jan 19 161 Montana St. W 75 - 73 58%
 Sat, Jan 24 296 @Northern Arizona W 77 - 73 64%
 Thu, Jan 29 194 Idaho W 79 - 75 65%
 Sat, Jan 31 255 Eastern Washington W 83 - 76 76%
 Thu, Feb 5 197 @Weber St. L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 196 @Idaho St. L 75 - 77 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 307 Sacramento St. W 87 - 76 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 145 Portland St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 Northern Arizona W 80 - 70 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 255 @Eastern Washington W 80 - 79 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 194 @Idaho L 76 - 78 42%
 Mon, Mar 2 186 Montana W 80 - 76 63%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 -1 +1 B C C -2 C+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.2 5.4 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.2 6.8 2.7 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 8.1 3.9 0.3 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 8.0 5.1 0.6 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 6.5 5.9 0.9 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.2 0.9 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.5 0.9 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 6.2 10.3 14.7 17.5 17.5 14.3 9.1 4.4 1.5 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 83.8% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 50.7% 2.3    0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 16.0% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 36.6% 36.6% 12.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.5% 33.7% 33.7% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 4.4% 27.8% 27.8% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.2
12-6 9.1% 21.3% 21.3% 13.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 7.1
11-7 14.3% 16.8% 16.8% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 11.9
10-8 17.5% 14.7% 14.7% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 14.9
9-9 17.5% 9.8% 9.8% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 15.8
8-10 14.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 13.8
7-11 10.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.8
6-12 6.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 6.0
5-13 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
4-14 1.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 14.1 87.9 0.0%