Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #206
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #190
Pace 72.4 #91
Improvement +1.7 #95

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #147 C C+ C B- D-
Defense #269 D C+ D+ B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.04 #313 -4.4 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #42 0.79 #124 +3.5 #38
Three Pointers 37% #264 1.16 #20 +0.8 #147
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #183 -0.1 #181
Freethrows 19.2 #94 71% #227 13.7 #113
Second Chance 31.0% #170 1.11 #107 0.34 #127
Turnovers 16.8% #189
Total Offense +0.4 #147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.28 #313 -5.2 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.89 #340 -2.4 #337
Three Pointers 34% #336 0.97 #127 +4.0 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.6 #293
Freethrows 14.8 #65 70% #61 10.3 #318
Second Chance 31.6% #223 0.97 #89 0.31 #149
Turnovers 14.9% #281
Total Defense -3.1 #269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #325 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #143 6.8% #301
Possession Length 16.4 #98 17.2 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #324 0.22 #309
Improvement +2.2 #60 -0.6 #221

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 8.9% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 35.2% 52.1% 24.8%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 62.2% 31.9%
Conference Champion 5.0% 9.3% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 18.0% 8.2% 24.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.8% 8.8% 4.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 38.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 49 - 312 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 239 @American L 78 - 84 45% -3  0 - 1 -7 -2 C- F F -5 F C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 68 @Providence L 81 - 106 10% -10  0 - 2 -14 +1 F C A- -12 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 175 Saint Joseph's W 83 - 74 55% +1  1 - 2 +5 +5 A F F -1 F A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 238 @Drexel W 84 - 68 45% +9  2 - 2 +15 +16 B A+ C- -1 B C F
 Fri, Nov 28 241 Merrimack W 77 - 65 68% +4  3 - 2 +4 +4 B- C B+ +1 A- C F
 Sat, Nov 29 208 La Salle W 73 - 71 62% -3  4 - 2 -4 +4 B A C -8 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 30 110 Hofstra L 60 - 77 36% -4  4 - 3 -16 -9 F B C+ -7 F D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 34 Villanova L 63 - 90 7% -15  4 - 4 -13 -0 C- C+ D+ -14 F A- C
 Mon, Dec 8 326 Lafayette W 74 - 72 84% +6  5 - 4 -11 -6 D- F C -5 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 124 @Rutgers L 69 - 70 23% +4  5 - 5 +4 +1 F A+ F +3 C A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 86 @George Mason L 79 - 83 13% -3  5 - 6 +6 +11 A+ C- A+ -5 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 352 NJIT W 80 - 61 89% +6  6 - 6 +3 +1 A F D- +1 C A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 5 221 @Princeton L 76 - 78 40% +1  6 - 7 0 - 1 -2 +9 D- A+ F -12 F A F
 Sat, Jan 10 248 Brown W 81 - 73 70% +1  7 - 7 1 - 1 +0 +11 A+ F A+ -11 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 204 @Dartmouth L 79 - 82 38%
 Mon, Jan 19 162 @Harvard L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Jan 24 94 Yale L 77 - 83 31%
 Fri, Jan 30 163 @Columbia L 76 - 81 32%
 Sat, Jan 31 193 @Cornell L 89 - 93 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 221 Princeton W 76 - 72 63%
 Fri, Feb 13 163 Columbia W 79 - 78 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 193 Cornell W 92 - 90 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @Yale L 74 - 86 15%
 Fri, Feb 27 204 Dartmouth W 82 - 79 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 162 Harvard W 74 - 73 52%
 Fri, Mar 6 248 @Brown L 71 - 72 48%
Totals 12 - 14 6 - 8 -3 +0 C C+ C -3 D C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.4 3.7 4.7 1.6 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 6.6 1.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.5 8.6 2.3 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 9.6 3.9 0.1 15.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 8.8 5.7 0.3 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.7 5.4 0.5 15.0 7th
8th 0.4 2.0 3.9 2.9 0.4 9.6 8th
Total 0.4 2.3 6.3 11.5 16.9 19.3 17.5 12.9 7.8 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
11-3 90.4% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
10-4 55.7% 2.0    0.8 1.0 0.2
9-5 18.5% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.3% 42.6% 42.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 1.1% 26.2% 26.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
10-4 3.6% 21.6% 21.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.9
9-5 7.8% 17.6% 17.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 6.4
8-6 12.9% 12.5% 12.5% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 11.3
7-7 17.5% 7.6% 7.6% 15.1 0.0 1.1 0.2 16.2
6-8 19.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 19.0
5-9 16.9% 16.9
4-10 11.5% 11.5
3-11 6.3% 6.3
2-12 2.3% 2.3
1-13 0.4% 0.4
0-14
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.6 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%