SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #266
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 #316
Pace 65.9 #273
Improvement +3.1 #45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #312 D- D- C B- D+
Defense #188 C- D+ A- F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.17 #164 -1.8 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #105 0.67 #283 +0.4 #156
Three Pointers 41% #187 0.81 #353 -4.2 #311
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #329 -5.6 #329
Freethrows 20.3 #46 68% #296 13.9 #107
Second Chance 27.0% #282 0.94 #302 0.25 #306
Turnovers 17.1% #214
Total Offense -5.3 #312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.24 #273 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #87 0.70 #107 -0.6 #218
Three Pointers 41% #189 1.07 #267 -1.2 #235
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #231 -1.4 #231
Freethrows 22.0 #346 76% #310 16.6 #14
Second Chance 31.5% #216 1.14 #293 0.36 #275
Turnovers 19.6% #46
Total Defense -0.6 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #278 -1.2% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.7% #328 4.0% #258
Possession Length 18.2 #268 17.5 #213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #275 0.21 #301
Improvement +2.4 #52 +0.6 #143

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 0.7% 1.8% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 15.4% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 9.8% 24.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 24.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 48 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 65 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 6% -12  0 - 1 -18 -6 D- F C -14 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 315 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 51% -9  0 - 2 -12 -11 F F D+ -2 F A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 111 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 12% -0  0 - 3 -3 -12 D- F F +10 A F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 66 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 6% -5  0 - 4 +4 -3 D- F B- +7 B- B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 118 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 14% +1  0 - 5 -7 -6 F F B+ -3 C A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 362 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 83% -2  1 - 5 -8 -6 F F C- -2 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 200 Navy W 69 - 65 37% +7  2 - 5 +2 +3 A+ C- F -1 C+ C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 276 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 64% +3  2 - 6 0 - 1 -18 -7 F D+ C -12 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 301 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 47% +3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -3 F D D +0 C- D A+
 Mon, Dec 15 321 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 74% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -1 D F A+ -12 F B+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 44 @LSU L 65 - 78 4% -12  3 - 8 +2 +7 D A+ C+ -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 187 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 24% -4  3 - 9 1 - 3 -8 -4 F F C -3 D+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 108 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 25% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -9 -4 D B D- -6 C C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 220 Lamar W 60 - 52 51% +9  4 - 10 2 - 4 +2 -2 B- F A+ +5 A+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 10 80 @McNeese St. L 61 - 73 7% -7  4 - 11 2 - 5 -2 -0 D+ B+ D- -3 D- A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 245 New Orleans L 76 - 79 57% -1  4 - 12 2 - 6 -11 -3 F C C+ -7 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 70 24%
 Mon, Jan 19 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 71 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 205 Nicholls St. L 70 - 71 49%
 Mon, Jan 26 80 McNeese St. L 65 - 75 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 11%
 Mon, Feb 2 220 @Lamar L 61 - 67 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 301 Houston Christian W 70 - 65 69%
 Mon, Feb 9 187 Incarnate Word L 67 - 68 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 276 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 70 41%
 Mon, Feb 16 321 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 68 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 69 - 68 55%
 Mon, Feb 23 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 67 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 205 @Nicholls St. L 68 - 74 29%
 Mon, Mar 2 245 @New Orleans L 73 - 77 35%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 15 -6 -5 D- D- C -1 C- D+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.8 5.5 1.1 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.4 8.1 2.1 0.1 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 6.6 8.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 20.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 6.0 7.4 2.9 0.2 0.0 18.3 11th
12th 0.4 1.9 4.0 3.9 1.5 0.1 11.7 12th
Total 0.4 2.0 5.7 11.2 16.3 18.2 17.2 13.3 8.6 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-9 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-10 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 1.8
11-11 4.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.3
10-12 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.5
9-13 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
8-14 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
7-15 18.2% 18.2
6-16 16.3% 16.3
5-17 11.2% 11.2
4-18 5.7% 5.7
3-19 2.0% 2.0
2-20 0.4% 0.4
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%