Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -18.1 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -18.4 #357
Pace 73.3 #67
Improvement -0.7 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #358 D- D F+ D C+
Defense #361 F+ D- D C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.01 #339 -2.0 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #244 0.57 #357 -2.8 #311
Three Pointers 42% #151 0.91 #309 -1.5 #235
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #342 -6.3 #343
Freethrows 0.26 #298 71% #237 0.19 #300
Second Chance 24.3% #334 0.97 #270 0.24 #338
Turnovers 20.2% #352
Total Offense -9.4 #358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.36 #360 -4.9 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #220 0.77 #196 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.15 #341 -2.8 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #357 -7.2 #358
Freethrows 0.28 #94 73% #206 0.20 #110
Second Chance 35.7% #340 1.12 #292 0.40 #341
Turnovers 14.1% #314
Total Defense -8.7 #361

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 0.6% #224
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.3% #353 13.4% #359
Possession Length 16.8 #123 16.9 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #148 0.20 #291
Improvement -1.2 #247 +0.5 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 98.2% 90.4% 98.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 42 - 132 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 73 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0 - 1 -16 -8 F+ D- C- -7 F C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 32 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0 - 2 -21 -3 C D+ F -18 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 183 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  0 - 3 -10 +2 C D- D -11 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 96 @DePaul L 62 - 93 2% -16  0 - 4 -22 -12 F+ C- F -7 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 117 @Richmond L 67 - 102 2% -28  0 - 5 -29 -8 B- F F -19 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 175 Navy L 51 - 84 7% -16  0 - 6 -34 -17 F+ F+ F -19 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 264 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 13% +2  0 - 7 -14 -6 C- C+ F -8 C C D
 Sat, Nov 29 115 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  0 - 8 -20 -8 C- F F -12 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 203 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0 - 9 -33 -6 F A+ C -25 F F D
 Sat, Dec 6 246 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 16% -3  0 - 10 -12 -0 C+ D- D+ -11 D- C F+
 Mon, Dec 15 184 Wofford L 57 - 83 11% -11  0 - 11 -31 -19 F F F -12 C- F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 20 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  0 - 12 -22 -11 D D C -11 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 247 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 16% +1  0 - 13 0 - 1 -18 -0 F+ B D+ -17 F+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 123 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  0 - 14 0 - 2 -6 +8 A- F A+ -15 F A D
 Wed, Jan 7 100 @High Point L 49 - 104 2% -38  0 - 15 0 - 3 -47 -29 F F+ F -11 C F D+
 Wed, Jan 14 243 Radford L 80 - 89 16% -5  0 - 16 0 - 4 -17 +1 D+ D+ B+ -17 D+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 255 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 18% -20  0 - 17 0 - 5 -45 -22 F D- F -23 F D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 261 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  0 - 18 0 - 6 -38 -18 F D F -20 F F D
 Fri, Jan 23 301 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 25% -3  1 - 18 1 - 6 -9 -5 D- C- D- -4 C+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 29 205 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 5% -12  1 - 19 1 - 7 -19 -13 F D+ F -9 D- C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 247 @Charleston Southern L 71 - 87 6%
 Wed, Feb 4 261 Longwood L 72 - 81 18%
 Sat, Feb 7 255 @Presbyterian L 64 - 80 7%
 Thu, Feb 12 123 Winthrop L 70 - 87 6%
 Sat, Feb 14 100 @High Point L 69 - 95 1%
 Thu, Feb 19 243 @Radford L 74 - 91 6%
 Thu, Feb 26 205 UNC Asheville L 68 - 80 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 80 12%
Totals 2 - 26 2 - 14 -18 -9 D- D F+ -9 F+ D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.9 2.6 1.4 0.2 5.1 8th
9th 50.9 32.8 9.5 1.1 0.0 94.4 9th
Total 50.9 33.8 12.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.4% 0.4
4-12 2.8% 2.8
3-13 12.1% 12.1
2-14 33.8% 33.8
1-15 50.9% 50.9
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 44.1%