South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#150
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Pace71.6#131
Improvement-0.9#249

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#217
First Shot+0.0#174
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#294
Layup/Dunks-0.5#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows-2.0#303
Improvement-1.7#328

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#115
First Shot-1.3#218
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#28
Layups/Dunks+1.0#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#290
Freethrows-0.6#227
Improvement+0.9#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.2% 28.4% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 75.5% 83.7% 64.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 93.5% 89.2%
Conference Champion 35.9% 39.8% 30.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four2.4% 1.6% 3.5%
First Round25.2% 27.7% 22.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 255 Merrimack W 75-66 69%     1 - 0 +3.9 +0.2 +3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 90 @Northern Iowa L 58-65 20%     1 - 1 +1.9 -1.9 +3.1
  Wed, Nov 12 80 @Oregon L 69-83 17%     1 - 2 -3.8 +0.7 -4.3
  Fri, Nov 21 337 Georgia St. W 105-58 89%     2 - 2 +33.3 +25.3 +6.9
  Tue, Nov 25 89 Utah Valley L 52-75 28%     2 - 3 -17.0 -16.6 -0.4
  Wed, Nov 26 133 UC Irvine L 52-64 42%     2 - 4 -10.1 -16.9 +7.5
  Wed, Dec 3 249 @Northern Arizona W 74-72 56%    
  Sat, Dec 6 168 Idaho W 73-69 64%    
  Tue, Dec 9 277 @Ball St. W 72-69 62%    
  Mon, Dec 15 117 Wyoming L 72-75 38%    
  Fri, Dec 19 208 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-73 61%    
  Mon, Dec 29 11 @Arizona L 64-86 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 256 Nebraska Omaha W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 319 @North Dakota W 75-70 69%    
  Thu, Jan 8 300 Denver W 81-70 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 155 @North Dakota St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 335 UMKC W 80-67 89%    
  Thu, Jan 22 158 @St. Thomas L 71-74 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 256 @Nebraska Omaha W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 296 Oral Roberts W 82-72 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 158 St. Thomas W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 286 South Dakota W 85-75 81%    
  Thu, Feb 12 300 @Denver W 78-73 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 296 @Oral Roberts W 79-75 65%    
  Wed, Feb 18 155 North Dakota St. W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 319 North Dakota W 78-67 84%    
  Thu, Feb 26 335 @UMKC W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 286 @South Dakota W 82-78 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.6 10.6 8.6 4.4 1.2 35.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.5 8.6 7.3 2.9 0.3 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.7 6.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.7 1.9 0.2 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 7.2 11.4 13.7 15.7 15.7 13.5 8.9 4.4 1.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 100.0% 4.4    4.2 0.1
14-2 96.6% 8.6    7.4 1.1 0.0
13-3 78.6% 10.6    7.5 2.9 0.2
12-4 48.8% 7.6    3.6 3.3 0.7 0.0
11-5 19.5% 3.0    0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 24.6 9.2 1.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 57.1% 56.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.3%
15-1 4.4% 48.3% 48.3% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3
14-2 8.9% 43.0% 43.0% 13.8 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.0 5.0
13-3 13.5% 38.2% 38.2% 14.3 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.8 0.2 8.3
12-4 15.7% 32.3% 32.3% 14.6 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 0.6 10.6
11-5 15.7% 24.5% 24.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.9 11.8
10-6 13.7% 18.4% 18.4% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 11.2
9-7 11.4% 14.7% 14.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 9.8
8-8 7.2% 12.6% 12.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 6.3
7-9 4.2% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.4 3.9
6-10 2.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.3
5-11 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.7 3.9 7.6 8.6 5.5 73.8 0.0%