South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.7 209
Results Rating -5.8 254
Consistency 0.16 242
Pace 68.0 192
Improvement -2.8 290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 183 C C C+ D C+
Defense C- 233 C- C D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 131 C 58% 183 +0.7 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 214 C 38% 181 -0.4 203
Three Pointers 40% 191 C 34% 181 -0.2 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 162 C -0.2 177
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 170
Second Chance C- 28.8% 229 C+ 1.07 124 C 0.31 184
Opponents' Steals C 9.4% 175
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 83
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 122
Freethrows D 0.27 288 C- 71% 230 D 0.19 290
Total Offense C -0.7 183

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 108 B- 9.6% 106
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 277 D+ 6.5% 277
Three Pointers D- 76% 335 B 0.4% 60
Total C- 54% 205 C+ 5.3% 143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 C- 59% 213 -2.2 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 266 D 42% 305 -0.6 141
Three Pointers 48% 16 C 34% 205 +3.9 335
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 164 C- +1.2 228
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 225
Second Chance B- 27.7% 81 D+ 1.10 281 C 0.31 162
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 274
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 251
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 286
Freethrows C+ 0.30 161 D+ 74% 279 C 0.22 179
Total Defense C- -2.0 233

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 256 D 7.6% 316
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 129 D+ 3.6% 256
Three Pointers C+ 81% 110 D- 0.0% 351
Total C- 58% 241 D- 3.3% 339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 201 17.4 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 271 0.15 102
Consistency 0.15 330 0.11 95
Improvement -0.3 199 -2.6 306

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 229 211 184
Results Rating Rank 277 255 211
Conference Record 7 - 9 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 9% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 55% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 6% 6%
First Round6% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 12
Quad 411 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 Merrimack W 75 - 66 43% +2  58% 1 - 0 B- +8 C +0 C+ C- D+ A- +8 A B+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 95 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 14% -4  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B F B +5 D+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 12 84 @Oregon L 69 - 83 12% -5  11% 1 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 C+ C- B- C- -2 C- C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 296 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 79% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +24 A+ D B A +11 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 96 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 21% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -17 F -19 F D F C+ +2 B- F+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 123 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 30% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -20 F F+ D A +11 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 310 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 62% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +7 D -4 F C C A+ +12 A- C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 179 Idaho L 81 - 84 56% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 C+ D- A+ F -12 F C+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 313 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 63% +0  35% 4 - 5 C- -2 C -0 B- C- C+ C -1 B- D- F
 Mon, Dec 15 100 Wyoming L 72 - 87 23% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -10 C +1 C C- A+ F -12 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 263 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 62% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B+ +9 B- B B+ F -16 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 3 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C -0 C+ +3 B- A C+ C -0 C- D- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 255 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 70% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 D+ A+ C B +4 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 291 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 58% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D+ -8 B +7 C+ B C+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 243 Denver W 87 - 79 69% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C +0 C+ +2 D+ A- C C- -2 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 137 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 25% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -4 C+ F B- D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 360 UMKC W 90 - 62 94% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B +8 A+ +15 A+ C- B+ D -5 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 115 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 20% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +1 D -5 C D D+ B+ +6 B- D A
 Wed, Jan 28 255 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 48% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -11 D- -7 F C- D- D+ -4 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 325 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 84% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +10 A- +10 A+ A- B- C -1 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 115 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 39% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 F+ -15 D- -8 C+ F B+ F+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 285 South Dakota L 67 - 68 76% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D -11 F -13 D- F B- B- +2 D+ A- D-
 Thu, Feb 12 243 @Denver L 61 - 79 46% -12  1% 8 - 15 4 - 7 F -20 F -15 F D- A D- -7 F+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 325 @Oral Roberts W 87 - 69 68% +5  71% 9 - 15 5 - 7 B +11 A +14 C A+ C C- -2 B F A-
 Wed, Feb 18 137 North Dakota St. L 66 - 74 46% -2  18% 9 - 16 5 - 8 D -10 D- -7 C F A- D+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 291 North Dakota W 91 - 83 78% -3  10% 10 - 16 6 - 8 C- -3 A +13 C A A+ F -16 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 360 @UMKC W 73 - 59 85% +5  78% 11 - 16 7 - 8 C +0 C +1 D- A- C C +0 B- B F
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @South Dakota W 78 - 77 55%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 8 -3 C -1 A+ C C+ C- -2 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C C C 40% 35% 40% C+ C C- C+ C C+ D C- D C- C- D C C- 34% 18% 48% C C- B- D+ C D+ C+ D+ C
1.08 58% 38% 34% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19 1.11 59% 42% 34% +1 0 1.05 28% 1.1 .31 15% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C+ 44% 23% 33% C+ C+ C- C- C- D+ A+ B A+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C A+ B+ C F D+ F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B- 39% 20% 41% C B- A+ D- B F B F C+ B D+ A+ D+ C 57% 5% 39% F D+ A- A+ A B+ F A+ D
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon C- D+ A+ D B- 26% 31% 43% D C+ F A+ C- B- D+ F D- C- F+ D C- D 16% 16% 67% A C- A+ F C+ D- A C- B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B+ A+ C F D B B+ B+ A- A F B- A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ C+ A+ C F A+ F
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C+ F B- F D F C B- C+ C+ B A- D B- 48% 14% 38% C+ B- D+ F F+ B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B- F F C- F+ D B F C- A F A+ A+ B+ 37% 21% 42% D+ B A- A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D D- D- D- F 37% 12% 51% C F C- B- C C A+ C- A+ A+ C D A+ A 33% 24% 43% B- A- B+ F+ C+ B F+ A+ C-
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B+ D+ B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D+ C+ D F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A- F B+ F+ C+ D- F C F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C C- D+ A+ B- 49% 18% 33% B B- C C- C- C+ F+ F+ F C F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% D+ B- F D+ D- F F+ C+ D-
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A- C- A+ B- B+ B F F D- D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D F F C D F F+
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B+ C+ B A- B 38% 13% 50% C+ B- B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B+ F F A+ D- C- C+ F D-
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F F A+ C+ 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ C+ F D C F A+ C- C 45% 18% 37% F+ C- B F D- A- F D F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -7 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha C+ B- F F D- 55% 9% 36% A D+ A+ A- A+ C B+ A A B A C- A- A 31% 17% 53% C A A+ B- A F C+ C- C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B D+ F A+ C+ 46% 10% 44% B- C+ B- B- B C+ B- A- B+ F F F+ D+ F 28% 13% 58% B F F C- F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A F C- C- 44% 27% 29% D D+ B+ B- A- C A B+ A+ C- A+ D D- C+ 23% 36% 41% A B- D- B+ C D- B+ A+ A
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D+ A F C+ C 33% 16% 51% C+ C+ F+ F F B- D+ F D D+ C F+ F F 24% 22% 55% B- F A+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C A+ C C- C- B+ C F D D D A+ C- C 35% 24% 41% C- C D F F D+ C+ D+ C
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% C+ C C- F+ D D+ D F F B+ D A+ C+ B 42% 4% 53% D B- D+ F D A F F+ F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F C- D- A+ C- A+ D+ F+ F A+ C 34% 25% 42% B- C+ C+ F F+ F D- F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -8 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts A- D A+ A+ A+ 57% 12% 31% B A+ C- A+ A- B- F F F C A+ F C B+ 26% 14% 60% B- B+ B B- B- F F B F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas D- A+ A+ F C 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F B+ C+ C- C F+ F+ F D- D- 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B-
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F+ F B- F A F B- B+ D+ D- D 30% 19% 51% B D+ A+ C- A- D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13
Feb
12		 Denver F F A+ F F 48% 22% 29% C- F F A D- A F A+ F D- A+ F F F+ 31% 24% 45% C- F+ F C+ D- D+ B- B B
0.96 43% 62% 12% -12 0 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 8% .17 90% .15 1.25 40% 50% 50% +8 -1 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 13% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Oral Roberts A C- F A+ C 49% 12% 39% C+ C B A+ A+ C F+ A+ C+ C- B A+ B+ A- 45% 11% 45% F+ B F F F A- B- F D
1.32 54% 17% 42% 0 +2 1.06 37% 2.1 .77 15% .25 93% .23 1.04 48% 20% 29% -10 +2 0.85 37% 1.5 .57 23% .27 93% .25
Feb
18		 North Dakota St. D- A+ F C C 35% 20% 45% C C F F F A- C F D- D+ F F+ A+ D 33% 27% 41% B- D+ A+ C+ A+ F F B- F
1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14 1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30
Feb
21		 North Dakota A D- F A+ C+ 35% 12% 53% C- C A- B+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ F F F F F 35% 11% 54% C F A+ A A+ F A+ B- A+
1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36 1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14
Feb
26		 UMKC C D- F A- D- 49% 19% 32% C+ D- C A+ A- C C+ B- B- C A+ A- D+ B+ 37% 13% 50% F B- A+ F B F C A- B-
1.14 52% 22% 40% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.3 .50 17% .28 73% .21 0.92 32% 29% 35% -10 +1 0.83 13% 1.4 .18 8% .25 60% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 47.1 47.1 4th
5th 7.8 7.8 5th
6th 6th
7th 45.1 45.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 45.1 54.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 54.9% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.2 4.9 49.8
7-9 45.1% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 3.0 42.1
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 16.0 92.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 16.0 4.6 95.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.1%
Lose Out 32.6%