South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #176
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #234
Pace 71.1 #122
Improvement -1.5 #261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #157 C C C D C+
Defense #206 C C C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.17 #165 +1.3 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #216 0.71 #241 -1.2 #240
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.02 #178 +0.2 #173
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #174 +0.3 #174
Freethrows 14.9 #297 71% #248 10.5 #302
Second Chance 30.9% #174 1.07 #149 0.33 #147
Turnovers 16.9% #194
Total Offense +0.2 #157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #292 1.20 #233 +1.8 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.87 #327 +0.2 #175
Three Pointers 48% #32 0.96 #114 -2.2 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #195 -0.3 #184
Freethrows 17.8 #212 75% #298 13.4 #129
Second Chance 29.3% #122 1.06 #219 0.31 #162
Turnovers 15.9% #219
Total Defense -1.3 #206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 0.0% #167
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #180 1.1% #207
Possession Length 17.5 #188 16.9 #115
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #162 0.17 #159
Improvement +2.0 #71 -3.5 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.0% 23.9% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 61.2% 78.5% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 97.3% 88.3%
Conference Champion 14.0% 28.0% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.5% 1.5% 3.0%
First Round18.0% 23.3% 15.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 241 Merrimack W 75 - 66 63% +2  1 - 0 +4 +1 C C- D- +4 A B+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 107 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 21% -4  1 - 1 +0 -1 B- A- F +1 D A- A-
 Wed, Nov 12 72 @Oregon L 69 - 83 13% -5  1 - 2 -3 +0 C+ D+ C -3 D+ B F
 Fri, Nov 21 290 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 81% +28  2 - 2 +37 +27 A+ F A- +9 B A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 101 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 28% -10  2 - 3 -18 -17 F D F -1 B+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 26 122 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 36% -7  2 - 4 -10 -18 F F F +10 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 296 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 64% +6  3 - 4 +8 +1 F C+ B- +7 A- B- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 194 Idaho L 81 - 84 65% +1  3 - 5 -8 +5 C F A+ -13 F B- D-
 Tue, Dec 9 303 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 66% +0  4 - 5 -1 -0 C D+ C -1 B D- F
 Mon, Dec 15 96 Wyoming L 72 - 87 26% -13  4 - 6 -10 +3 C D+ A+ -14 F F C+
 Fri, Dec 19 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 60% -1  4 - 7 -5 +12 A- A- B- -17 F D C
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  4 - 8 -1 +5 B- A+ C+ -3 C F A
 Thu, Jan 1 258 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 76% +6  5 - 8 1 - 0 +7 +5 D+ A+ D+ +2 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 319 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 70% -1  5 - 9 1 - 1 -9 +10 C B+ B- -20 F F D
 Thu, Jan 8 280 Denver W 87 - 79 79% +1  6 - 9 2 - 1 -2 +5 D+ B C -6 B- C F
 Wed, Jan 14 148 @North Dakota St. L 73 - 78 33%
 Sat, Jan 17 346 UMKC W 82 - 68 90%
 Thu, Jan 22 128 @St. Thomas L 75 - 81 29%
 Wed, Jan 28 258 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 77 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 298 Oral Roberts W 80 - 70 82%
 Wed, Feb 4 128 St. Thomas W 78 - 77 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 282 South Dakota W 87 - 78 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 280 @Denver W 83 - 80 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 298 @Oral Roberts W 77 - 73 64%
 Wed, Feb 18 148 North Dakota St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 319 North Dakota W 83 - 72 85%
 Thu, Feb 26 346 @UMKC W 79 - 71 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 282 @South Dakota W 84 - 81 60%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 6 -1 +0 C C C -1 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.2 5.5 2.6 0.5 14.0 1st
2nd 0.5 3.9 9.6 8.2 2.4 0.1 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 10.0 14.4 8.5 1.7 0.0 37.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.6 5.1 1.4 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.4 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.2 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.7 10.9 16.0 19.8 19.3 14.1 8.0 2.7 0.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
14-2 96.9% 2.6    2.3 0.4
13-3 69.5% 5.5    2.9 2.4 0.3
12-4 29.8% 4.2    1.3 2.1 0.9 0.0
11-5 5.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 7.1 5.3 1.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.5% 45.9% 45.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 2.7% 40.8% 40.8% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.6
13-3 8.0% 32.8% 32.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 5.4
12-4 14.1% 26.4% 26.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.2 10.4
11-5 19.3% 20.8% 20.8% 15.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 0.7 15.3
10-6 19.8% 16.6% 16.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 2.2 1.0 16.5
9-7 16.0% 13.7% 13.7% 15.7 0.6 1.6 13.8
8-8 10.9% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2 9.6
7-9 5.7% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.4 5.3
6-10 2.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-11 0.7% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 14.9 81.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.6 4.4 44.4 42.2 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%