Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.9 231
Results Rating -3.8 233
Consistency 0.15 207
Pace 72.0 90
Improvement +0.7 162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 301 D+ C+ C- C C+
Defense C+ 139 C C C+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 64 D+ 54% 274 +1.0 137
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 135 C- 36% 255 -0.8 222
Three Pointers 37% 256 D 31% 305 -3.6 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 120 D -3.7 308
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 285
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 251 B+ 1.18 29 C+ 0.33 134
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 240
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 186
Turnovers C- 17.3% 212
Freethrows C+ 0.32 128 D- 68% 326 C 0.22 188
Total Offense D -5.0 301

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 312 C- 11.8% 230
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 138 B- 3.7% 86
Three Pointers C+ 87% 131 D- 1.7% 341
Total D+ 50% 298 D+ 6.5% 280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 65 C+ 56% 109 +1.6 230
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 218 D- 44% 343 +0.6 238
Three Pointers 38% 275 C 34% 200 -1.6 115
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 263 C +0.2 182
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 199
Second Chance B- 28.2% 95 D 1.12 303 C 0.32 201
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 251
Other Turnovers B+ 8.9% 27
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 134
Freethrows F 0.40 358 D 75% 323 F 0.30 361
Total Defense C+ +1.1 139

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 25 C 11.5% 152
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 252 D 2.5% 315
Three Pointers D+ 87% 264 A- 2.1% 25
Total B- 50% 78 C+ 6.2% 132

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 112 17.1 138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 254 0.20 278
Consistency 0.11 80 0.12 163
Improvement -2.9 321 +3.6 31

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 252 233 204
Results Rating Rank 255 231 174
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 14 - 6
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 16% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 1% 7%
First Round15% 16% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 415 - 917 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 25 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  22% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 D+ F+ A C+ +1 B C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 47 @Missouri L 84 - 89 5% -2  32% 0 - 2 B +9 B +6 A- C D- B +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 115 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 34% -13  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F -11 F+ C C C+ +1 F A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 24 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3% -19  0% 0 - 4 D -10 B- +5 B A+ D- F -16 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 222 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 48% +3  38% 1 - 4 B+ +13 C +0 D+ C+ C A+ +11 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 26 310 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 58% -7  1% 1 - 5 D- -13 F+ -8 F C A D+ -4 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 197 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 55% -4  18% 1 - 6 F+ -16 F -10 F D+ F+ D+ -5 F+ C B+
 Sat, Dec 6 282 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 50% -1  22% 2 - 6 C +0 C +0 C+ B D- C -0 F+ D B
 Thu, Dec 18 311 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 58% -2  47% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 D- -6 F A- F F -10 C- D- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 217 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 36% +10  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 B +9 B +6 A A+ F C+ +2 C A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 317 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 80% -2  37% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -4 F+ -10 F A+ A B+ +6 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 94% +9  80% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C +2 D -6 D+ A D- A +9 A- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 338 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 68% +5  73% 6 - 7 4 - 1 C -1 B +7 A+ F B D- -8 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 279 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 49% +4  86% 6 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 C +1 D- C- A+ D- -7 F B- B
 Thu, Jan 15 278 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 71% -17  2% 6 - 9 4 - 3 F -22 F -13 F A- C D- -7 D F C
 Sat, Jan 17 260 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 67% -16  0% 6 - 10 4 - 4 F -22 F -14 F D- F F+ -8 F+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 20 214 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 58% +18  99% 7 - 10 5 - 4 B +10 D+ -3 D+ A- C+ A+ +14 A C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 303 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 77% +5  85% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 D F B B- +3 B B- F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 86% +2  72% 9 - 10 7 - 4 D- -11 D+ -2 B- D F F+ -9 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 317 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 62% +12  97% 10 - 10 8 - 4 B +11 B+ +8 A+ F A- B +5 D+ B- B+
 Thu, Feb 5 279 Morehead St. W 82 - 70 71% +9  93% 11 - 10 9 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 B- A F B- +3 F+ C B
 Sat, Feb 7 338 Southern Indiana W 90 - 65 84% +5  53% 12 - 10 10 - 4 B +10 A +13 C- A+ A+ C- -2 C D+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 56 - 74 45% -1  58% 12 - 11 10 - 5 F -21 F -12 D- F+ C+ F+ -9 D+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 278 @Lindenwood W 73 - 61 49% +2  54% 13 - 11 11 - 5 B +8 D -4 D F C+ A+ +12 A- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 214 @Tennessee Martin W 56 - 53 OT 35% +5  83% 14 - 11 12 - 5 C+ +3 F -17 F C+ F A+ +20 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 303 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 56% +1  49% 15 - 11 13 - 5 C -0 D- -6 F+ F+ D B+ +6 A- A F
 Thu, Feb 26 217 Tennessee St. L 71 - 79 59% +1  47% 15 - 12 13 - 6 D- -14 F -12 F C- B C -1 B- B D+
 Sat, Feb 28 311 Tennessee Tech W 76 - 68 77%
Totals 16 - 12 14 - 6 -4 D -5 C+ D C+ C+ +1 D D- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C- D D 43% 41% 37% C+ D+ D+ B+ C+ C- C+ D- C C+ C+ D- C C 43% 19% 38% D+ C B- D C C+ F D F
1.01 54% 36% 31% -4 0 0.95 28% 1.2 .33 17% .32 68% .22 1.07 56% 44% 34% 0 0 1.03 28% 1.1 .32 17% .40 75% .24
Nov
3		 Saint Louis D C D F C 25% 42% 32% F D+ F F+ F+ A A- D B C+ F+ B+ A- B 49% 5% 46% C- B F+ A C B+ D F F+
0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26 1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27
Nov
7		 Missouri B A- A+ C A 26% 31% 43% D A- A F C D- A- A- A B F F D- F 41% 33% 27% A+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ F A F
1.09 64% 53% 35% +7 -2 1.11 38% 0.7 .26 21% .34 81% .28 1.15 75% 63% 38% +17 -1 1.33 31% 0.9 .28 25% .53 61% .33
Nov
15		 St. Thomas F D D- F+ F+ 46% 23% 32% D+ F+ F A+ C C F F F C+ F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% D+ F A+ F A A+ F F F
0.94 54% 31% 28% -7 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11 1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36
Nov
18		 Iowa B- D A+ C B- 46% 17% 37% B B A A+ A+ D- A F C F F F F+ F 41% 14% 45% C F D+ F F B- F B- F
1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23 1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51
Nov
25		 Cal Poly C C- A F D 50% 7% 43% A D+ B- C C+ C C- A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% A- A+ F F F A F F+ F
1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24 0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56
Nov
26		 Northern Arizona F+ D+ F F F 59% 7% 34% A F D B+ C A F F F D+ C D C+ C 49% 26% 26% D+ C C- F F C- F D- F
1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11 1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
29		 Lipscomb F D- B F F 43% 26% 30% C F C+ F+ D+ F+ A+ A- A+ D+ C- C F F+ 43% 11% 45% C- F+ A- F C B+ F B- F
0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36 1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30
Dec
6		 Chattanooga C B- D- B C+ 35% 19% 46% C- C+ C A B D- F F F C B- F F F+ 48% 22% 30% D F+ B+ F D B D C- D
1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09 1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24
Dec
18		 Tennessee Tech D- F D F F 38% 13% 50% B F B+ B A- F A+ C+ A+ F C+ A+ F C- 43% 24% 33% D+ C- C+ F D- F+ F F+ F
1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41 1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57
Dec
20		 Tennessee St. B B A+ A A 44% 13% 42% C A C+ A+ A+ F A+ B- A+ C+ D+ A F C- 40% 36% 25% B- C A+ B+ A D- F B F
1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38 1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
1		 Eastern Illinois F+ F F F F 65% 4% 31% A+ F D+ A+ A+ A C F F B+ A D+ F+ C 53% 18% 29% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- F B- F
0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15 0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28
Jan
3		 Western Illinois D D+ A+ D- D 59% 11% 30% A- D+ C A+ A D- B D C+ A A- C A+ A 34% 27% 39% C A- B- A+ A- A+ F F F
1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24 0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39
Jan
8		 Southern Indiana B A- B A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% C- A+ F F F B A+ F C+ D- C+ F A- F+ 41% 14% 45% F F F F F A- F F F
1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25 1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42
Jan
10		 Morehead St. C B+ F F D- 41% 22% 37% D+ D- D+ C+ C- A+ B+ D- B- D- F F F F 41% 34% 24% B F D A B- B F+ C+ D-
1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25 1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27
Jan
15		 Lindenwood F F D- D+ F 50% 12% 38% B F C- A+ A- C B D- C+ D- C A+ B- C- 61% 4% 35% F D D- F F C F C+ F
0.93 41% 29% 32% -11 +2 0.84 31% 1.4 .44 17% .39 65% .25 1.08 57% 0% 29% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.5 .51 20% .53 66% .35
Jan
17		 SIU Edwardsville F F A+ F F 45% 24% 31% B- F F A D- F A+ F A F+ A F F F+ 43% 24% 33% F+ F+ C F D- D+ F+ D F+
0.87 37% 50% 23% -12 0 0.79 20% 1.2 .23 20% .46 65% .30 1.07 45% 45% 47% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.3 .35 17% .32 71% .23
Jan
20		 Tennessee Martin D+ D- D- C- D+ 27% 15% 58% B- D+ B+ B+ A- C+ C- F F A+ B- B A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% F A F A C A+ F A F
1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17 0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30
Jan
22		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ B- C- D- D- 43% 12% 45% C+ D F F F B A C A- B- A+ A F A- 37% 30% 33% D B A F B- F D- D D-
1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26 0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20
Jan
29		 Western Illinois D+ A+ F F C+ 51% 7% 42% A- B- F A+ D F A+ D+ A+ F+ C B+ D- F+ 35% 14% 51% F F B- A B+ F F D F
1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41 1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32
Jan
31		 Eastern Illinois B+ A F A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% B A+ D F F A- F D- F B A+ B F C- 49% 20% 31% F D+ A- F B- B+ C- C+ C
1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14 0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Morehead St. C- D- A A+ B- 51% 13% 36% B B- C A+ A F A D B+ B- B F D F+ 48% 23% 29% F+ F+ A+ F C B B+ D- B-
1.17 50% 50% 47% +4 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27 1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20
Feb
7		 Southern Indiana A A- C F C- 53% 23% 23% C C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A F A B- 44% 18% 38% F+ C C- D+ D+ C- F D F
1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45 0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28
Feb
12		 SIU Edwardsville F F F A D- 29% 27% 45% D D- F C+ F+ C+ D+ F F F+ B- F B- D+ 42% 26% 32% D- D+ F+ F F D- F+ C D-
0.85 36% 15% 41% -8 -1 0.84 20% 1.0 .20 15% .29 50% .14 1.13 52% 46% 31% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 15% .32 67% .22
Feb
14		 Lindenwood D A- F F D- 55% 15% 30% B D D F F C+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- 46% 23% 31% C A- A+ D+ A+ F F A+ D+
1.01 69% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 26% 0.6 .15 17% .66 70% .46 0.84 42% 50% 19% -12 0 0.79 17% 1.1 .20 14% .40 56% .22
Feb
17		 Tennessee Martin F F F F F 42% 19% 40% B F B D+ C+ F A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ D- D+ C+ D+
0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32 0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22
Feb
21		 Arkansas Little Rock D- A+ D F D 27% 33% 40% F F+ C- F F+ D A+ D+ A B+ C C+ A+ B+ 30% 44% 26% A A- B+ A+ A F F F F
1.03 92% 31% 26% +2 -2 1.02 33% 0.6 .21 21% .41 68% .28 0.95 60% 32% 23% -6 -4 0.82 25% 0.8 .19 13% .32 89% .29
Feb
26		 Tennessee St. F F F B+ F 54% 10% 36% B F F+ A+ C- B A D+ A- C A+ F B B- 43% 35% 22% C+ B- D+ A+ B D+ F F F
0.96 37% 20% 39% -11 +2 0.86 24% 1.4 .32 16% .45 71% .32 1.07 40% 50% 30% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.8 .28 15% .67 86% .57



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 48.1 48.1 2nd
3rd 8.4 29.3 37.7 3rd
4th 14.2 14.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 22.6 77.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 77.4% 16.5% 16.5% 15.4 0.6 7.0 5.2 64.6
13-7 22.6% 15.3% 15.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.1 19.2
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 15.5 83.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.7% 100.0% 15.4 4.4 54.6 41.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.2%
Lose Out 9.4%