Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.4 #224
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #243
Pace 72.8 #85
Improvement -1.1 #247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #228 D+ B C+ D C+
Defense #216 D D+ C+ F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #57 1.09 #267 +1.5 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.81 #102 +0.9 #131
Three Pointers 35% #298 0.92 #293 -4.6 #322
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #239 -2.3 #238
Freethrows 15.6 #275 69% #286 10.8 #290
Second Chance 29.6% #220 1.29 #7 0.38 #74
Turnovers 15.7% #124
Total Offense -2.0 #228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.21 #252 -3.3 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #147 0.87 #324 -1.6 #289
Three Pointers 36% #305 1.05 #233 +1.8 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.2 #279
Freethrows 23.9 #359 77% #339 18.4 #4
Second Chance 29.8% #144 1.18 #320 0.35 #259
Turnovers 17.8% #107
Total Defense -1.4 #216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #149 0.4% #195
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #253 5.8% #289
Possession Length 16.9 #135 17.0 #128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #243 0.19 #248
Improvement +0.3 #164 -1.4 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 21.6% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 72.9% 81.0% 56.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 95.8% 84.4%
Conference Champion 20.3% 26.1% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 3.4%
First Round17.4% 20.0% 12.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 414 - 815 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 32 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 4% -10  0 - 1 -8 -4 D- F A+ -2 B C A-
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Missouri L 84 - 89 7% -2  0 - 2 +8 +8 A C- F +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 128 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 41% -13  0 - 3 -13 -9 F B- C+ -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 22 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3% -19  0 - 4 -10 +8 B A+ F -19 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 249 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 56% +3  1 - 4 +11 +4 C B- C +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 296 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 55% -7  1 - 5 -12 -3 F C+ A+ -9 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 167 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 51% -4  1 - 6 -15 -7 F D D- -6 F B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 267 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 48% -1  2 - 6 +1 +3 C C+ D+ -2 F F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 314 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 60% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -17 -4 F A F -13 C F F
 Sat, Dec 20 226 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 39% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +8 +11 A+ A+ F -4 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 311 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 79% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -3 -7 F A+ B +4 D A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 357 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 90% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +0 D+ A+ D- +7 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 343 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 68% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 -0 +9 A+ F B+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 304 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 57% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +5 D- C A+ -12 F C+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 252 Lindenwood W 81 - 76 67%
 Sat, Jan 17 278 SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 67 72%
 Tue, Jan 20 225 Tennessee Martin W 74 - 71 61%
 Thu, Jan 22 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 77 - 71 73%
 Thu, Jan 29 357 @Western Illinois W 73 - 65 78%
 Sat, Jan 31 311 @Eastern Illinois W 71 - 69 59%
 Thu, Feb 5 304 Morehead St. W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 343 Southern Indiana W 80 - 69 85%
 Thu, Feb 12 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 252 @Lindenwood L 78 - 79 46%
 Tue, Feb 17 225 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 74 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 283 @Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 314 Tennessee Tech W 80 - 71 78%
Totals 14 - 13 12 - 7 -3 -2 D+ B C+ -1 D D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 6.2 7.3 3.9 1.0 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 8.2 7.6 2.2 0.2 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 7.5 7.4 1.8 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.0 6.8 1.4 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.0 2.0 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.4 2.3 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.2 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.9 9.7 14.7 18.5 18.8 15.6 9.6 4.2 1.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-4 94.6% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
15-5 76.3% 7.3    4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 39.4% 6.2    1.8 2.8 1.3 0.2
13-7 9.6% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 10.7 6.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.0% 46.1% 46.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-4 4.2% 42.1% 42.1% 14.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.1 2.4
15-5 9.6% 39.2% 39.2% 15.2 0.5 2.2 1.1 5.8
14-6 15.6% 29.8% 29.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.4 11.0
13-7 18.8% 20.1% 20.1% 15.7 0.0 1.1 2.7 15.0
12-8 18.5% 14.4% 14.4% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 15.8
11-9 14.7% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.1 1.0 13.5
10-10 9.7% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.2
9-11 4.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.7
8-12 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 15.4 81.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.4 9.0 46.1 38.2 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%