Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#211
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#273
Pace72.6#110
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#240
First Shot-6.3#344
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#20
Layup/Dunks+1.3#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#349
Freethrows-3.0#329
Improvement+0.0#181

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot-1.7#231
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#124
Layups/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#60
Freethrows-5.0#360
Improvement-0.2#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 21.1% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 60.1% 71.4% 46.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.1% 84.4% 75.0%
Conference Champion 21.0% 25.3% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four4.6% 4.4% 4.9%
First Round16.3% 19.4% 12.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 413 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 50 @Saint Louis L 67-92 7%     0 - 1 -11.7 -4.8 -4.6
  Fri, Nov 7 33 @Missouri L 84-89 5%     0 - 2 +11.2 +8.8 +2.9
  Sat, Nov 15 158 St. Thomas L 72-84 51%     0 - 3 -15.4 -8.5 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 18 21 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     0 - 4 -10.8 +7.2 -18.7
  Tue, Nov 25 245 Cal Poly W 84-68 56%     1 - 4 +11.2 +4.0 +6.2
  Wed, Nov 26 249 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 45%     1 - 5 -8.9 -2.2 -6.8
  Sat, Nov 29 176 Lipscomb W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Dec 6 188 @Chattanooga L 73-77 34%    
  Thu, Dec 18 322 @Tennessee Tech W 73-71 59%    
  Sat, Dec 20 224 @Tennessee St. L 76-78 41%    
  Thu, Jan 1 329 Eastern Illinois W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 353 Western Illinois W 76-64 87%    
  Thu, Jan 8 314 @Southern Indiana W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 310 @Morehead St. W 75-73 57%    
  Thu, Jan 15 306 Lindenwood W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 204 SIU Edwardsville W 71-68 60%    
  Tue, Jan 20 263 Tennessee Martin W 74-69 68%    
  Thu, Jan 22 248 Arkansas Little Rock W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 353 @Western Illinois W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 329 @Eastern Illinois W 71-68 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 310 Morehead St. W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 314 Southern Indiana W 81-73 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 204 @SIU Edwardsville L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 306 @Lindenwood W 76-74 56%    
  Tue, Feb 17 263 @Tennessee Martin L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 248 @Arkansas Little Rock L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 322 Tennessee Tech W 76-68 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 4.0 5.9 4.8 3.2 1.4 0.4 21.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 5.8 3.4 0.9 0.2 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.9 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.9 3.6 1.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.5 7.5 9.8 12.1 13.3 12.9 11.8 9.4 5.8 3.3 1.4 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
17-3 95.3% 3.2    2.9 0.3
16-4 83.5% 4.8    3.8 0.9 0.1
15-5 62.2% 5.9    3.4 2.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 33.9% 4.0    1.6 1.8 0.6 0.0
13-7 10.2% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.0 13.7 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 62.2% 62.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.4% 55.1% 55.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6
17-3 3.3% 51.1% 51.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6
16-4 5.8% 41.8% 41.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 3.4
15-5 9.4% 35.7% 35.7% 15.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.4 6.1
14-6 11.8% 30.0% 30.0% 15.6 0.1 1.2 2.2 8.2
13-7 12.9% 20.1% 20.1% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.0 10.3
12-8 13.3% 12.9% 12.9% 15.9 0.2 1.6 11.6
11-9 12.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.1 0.9 11.1
10-10 9.8% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.3
9-11 7.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 7.1
8-12 5.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 1.9% 1.9
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.7 9.6 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 10.8 59.5 24.3 5.4