Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #173
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #135
Pace 74.7 #52
Improvement +0.2 #175

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #189 C B C- B+ D+
Defense #168 F D A+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.06 #290 +0.4 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #37 0.81 #105 +4.1 #27
Three Pointers 28% #362 1.11 #60 -5.2 #331
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #197 -0.7 #197
Freethrows 20.1 #55 76% #84 15.2 #44
Second Chance 32.1% #138 1.21 #30 0.39 #67
Turnovers 17.3% #222
Total Offense -0.9 #189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.27 #306 -1.6 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #300 0.91 #345 +0.2 #174
Three Pointers 46% #58 1.10 #293 -4.3 #337
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.7 #337
Freethrows 22.0 #347 72% #168 15.9 #25
Second Chance 32.0% #238 1.17 #316 0.38 #301
Turnovers 22.1% #6
Total Defense +0.0 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #284 0.9% #248
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #173 10.2% #334
Possession Length 17.7 #212 15.6 #12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #35 0.15 #103
Improvement -1.3 #263 +1.5 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 12.6% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 71.8% 79.7% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 77.0% 48.0%
Conference Champion 7.5% 9.2% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.7% 7.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round11.3% 12.6% 8.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 410 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 30 @SMU L 76 - 96 5% -7  0 - 1 -2 +6 D- C D+ -8 F A+ C-
 Wed, Nov 5 44 @LSU L 60 - 96 8% -19  0 - 2 -21 -5 F C+ B -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 64% +13  1 - 2 +3 +14 A+ A+ C -10 F C- B
 Tue, Nov 11 241 Merrimack W 76 - 62 74% +5  2 - 2 +6 -3 B- D F +9 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 37 @Baylor L 81 - 94 6% -10  2 - 3 +4 +10 A+ A+ F -6 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 247 @Rice W 90 - 74 54% +3  3 - 3 +14 +10 A+ D- C- +3 D A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 1 56 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 11% -8  3 - 4 -5 -4 C B F -1 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 96% +9  4 - 4 +3 +2 C- D- F -1 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 322 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 86% +14  5 - 4 +11 -8 F A+ F +17 A+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 154 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 34% +6  6 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +5 C+ B A+ +5 C C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 101 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 38% -2  6 - 5 1 - 1 -4 +8 D+ C+ A+ -11 F C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 157 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 57% +1  7 - 5 2 - 1 +2 +3 B+ F F -1 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 212 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 68% -7  7 - 6 2 - 2 -10 +2 F A+ B- -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 323 @Southern Utah W 79 - 73 71%
 Sat, Jan 17 232 @Utah Tech L 76 - 77 50%
 Wed, Jan 21 154 @Texas Arlington L 70 - 74 34%
 Sat, Jan 24 212 Abilene Christian W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Jan 29 101 Utah Valley L 76 - 79 38%
 Sat, Jan 31 232 Utah Tech W 79 - 73 70%
 Thu, Feb 5 157 @California Baptist L 70 - 74 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 323 @Southern Utah W 79 - 73 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 212 @Abilene Christian L 74 - 75 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 323 Southern Utah W 82 - 70 86%
 Sat, Feb 21 232 Utah Tech W 79 - 73 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 101 @Utah Valley L 73 - 82 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 157 @California Baptist L 70 - 74 35%
 Thu, Mar 5 154 Texas Arlington W 73 - 71 57%
Totals 15 - 12 10 - 8 -1 -1 C B C- +0 F D A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.3 3.2 8.1 7.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.8 10.2 5.8 1.2 0.0 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 9.5 4.3 0.4 0.0 20.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.9 6.8 2.6 0.2 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 3.8 1.3 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.8 9.6 13.8 17.2 17.9 14.7 10.7 5.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 96.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1
14-4 76.4% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 52.3% 2.9    1.4 1.4 0.1
12-6 17.4% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0
11-7 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.6% 35.3% 35.3% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.4
14-4 2.1% 35.6% 35.6% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 5.5% 26.0% 26.0% 13.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 4.1
12-6 10.7% 22.5% 22.5% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 8.3
11-7 14.7% 17.3% 17.3% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 12.2
10-8 17.9% 9.9% 9.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 16.1
9-9 17.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 16.0
8-10 13.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 13.1
7-11 9.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 9.4
6-12 4.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 13.9 88.6 0.0%