Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#195
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#95
Pace71.2#143
Improvement+1.9#48

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#194
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#290
Layup/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#343
Freethrows+2.5#54
Improvement+0.6#116

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#198
First Shot-0.8#197
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#205
Layups/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#123
Freethrows-1.9#295
Improvement+1.3#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 12.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 59.9% 81.5% 57.5%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 72.4% 58.2%
Conference Champion 7.3% 12.3% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 3.4% 7.4%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round8.7% 12.7% 8.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 9.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 411 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 42 @SMU L 76-96 6%     0 - 1 -5.1 +6.7 -11.0
  Wed, Nov 5 40 @LSU L 60-96 6%     0 - 2 -21.0 -5.1 -16.9
  Sat, Nov 8 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-77 68%     1 - 2 +1.0 +11.9 -10.8
  Tue, Nov 11 255 Merrimack W 76-62 71%     2 - 2 +5.9 -4.0 +9.1
  Fri, Nov 14 28 @Baylor L 81-94 5%     2 - 3 +3.9 +10.2 -5.8
  Thu, Nov 20 213 @Rice W 90-74 43%     3 - 3 +15.7 +11.7 +3.0
  Mon, Dec 1 65 @Cincinnati L 67-81 10%    
  Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 83-66 94%    
  Fri, Dec 19 351 Florida A&M W 81-68 89%    
  Mon, Dec 29 184 @Texas Arlington L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 89 Utah Valley L 71-76 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 136 California Baptist L 70-71 47%    
  Thu, Jan 8 252 Abilene Christian W 71-65 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 331 @Southern Utah W 79-75 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 281 @Utah Tech W 71-70 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 184 @Texas Arlington L 70-74 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 252 Abilene Christian W 71-65 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 89 Utah Valley L 71-76 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 281 Utah Tech W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 136 @California Baptist L 67-74 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 331 @Southern Utah W 79-75 65%    
  Sat, Feb 14 252 @Abilene Christian L 68-69 49%    
  Thu, Feb 19 331 Southern Utah W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 281 Utah Tech W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Feb 26 89 @Utah Valley L 68-79 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 136 @California Baptist L 67-74 27%    
  Thu, Mar 5 184 Texas Arlington W 73-71 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.5 5.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.9 7.8 5.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 23.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.9 7.3 4.0 0.7 0.0 22.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.2 7.6 10.4 12.2 13.5 13.4 11.4 8.8 6.0 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 95.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 84.6% 1.6    1.3 0.4
14-4 57.6% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 27.2% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 34.9% 34.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 43.8% 43.8% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.9% 32.9% 32.9% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.6% 27.6% 27.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.6
13-5 6.0% 22.4% 22.4% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.6
12-6 8.8% 17.7% 17.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 7.3
11-7 11.4% 12.2% 12.2% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 10.0
10-8 13.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 12.3
9-9 13.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.9
8-10 12.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.1 0.2 11.8
7-11 10.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.2
6-12 7.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.5
5-13 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.1
4-14 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.1 2.3 1.0 91.1 0.0%