Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#224
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Pace78.2#28
Improvement-1.0#254

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#263
First Shot-1.6#216
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#300
Layup/Dunks-3.1#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
Freethrows+1.7#85
Improvement-1.5#312

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#174
First Shot-1.9#239
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#96
Layups/Dunks-8.1#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#6
Freethrows-4.6#355
Improvement+0.5#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 19.4% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 63.5% 78.1% 56.5%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 79.4% 68.9%
Conference Champion 14.5% 19.7% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.7% 3.3%
First Four2.1% 1.5% 2.4%
First Round14.1% 18.6% 12.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 412 - 614 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 94 @Belmont L 79-87 13%     0 - 1 +0.6 +0.9 +0.8
  Sun, Nov 16 132 @Western Kentucky L 82-95 20%     0 - 2 -8.1 +5.5 -12.5
  Thu, Nov 20 14 @Tennessee L 60-89 2%     0 - 3 -8.1 -10.3 +5.6
  Tue, Nov 25 218 @UNC Asheville W 75-73 38%     1 - 3 +1.4 -3.0 +4.3
  Sun, Nov 30 188 @Chattanooga L 74-79 32%    
  Wed, Dec 3 293 @Alabama A&M W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Dec 13 129 @UNLV L 79-88 20%    
  Thu, Dec 18 263 Tennessee Martin W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Dec 20 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 78-76 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 248 @Arkansas Little Rock L 72-74 44%    
  Thu, Jan 8 353 @Western Illinois W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 329 @Eastern Illinois W 73-70 59%    
  Thu, Jan 15 310 Morehead St. W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 314 Southern Indiana W 83-76 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 204 @SIU Edwardsville L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 306 @Lindenwood W 78-77 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 322 Tennessee Tech W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Jan 29 248 Arkansas Little Rock W 75-71 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 329 Eastern Illinois W 76-67 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 353 Western Illinois W 78-66 85%    
  Thu, Feb 12 314 @Southern Indiana W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 310 @Morehead St. W 76-75 54%    
  Thu, Feb 19 306 Lindenwood W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 204 SIU Edwardsville W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 263 @Tennessee Martin L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 4.3 3.7 1.6 0.4 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.6 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.7 4.2 1.0 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.4 0.9 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.7 7.2 9.6 11.1 12.7 12.9 12.5 9.8 6.9 4.3 1.7 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-3 95.9% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-4 85.0% 3.7    2.9 0.7 0.1
15-5 62.8% 4.3    2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 32.2% 3.2    1.2 1.3 0.5 0.0
13-7 9.5% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 8.6 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 61.3% 61.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.7% 51.9% 51.9% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8
16-4 4.3% 45.8% 45.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.3
15-5 6.9% 40.1% 40.1% 14.7 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.3 4.1
14-6 9.8% 30.7% 30.7% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 6.8
13-7 12.5% 21.1% 21.1% 15.4 0.2 1.1 1.4 9.8
12-8 12.9% 12.9% 12.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 11.2
11-9 12.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 11.8
10-10 11.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 10.5
9-11 9.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.4
8-12 7.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.1
7-13 4.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.7
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.7 5.5 84.9 0.0%