Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #226
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #178
Pace 75.5 #40
Improvement +0.5 #154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #242 F C C D+ D-
Defense #198 D C C+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.09 #271 -0.8 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #21 0.66 #297 +2.6 #61
Three Pointers 29% #360 0.86 #334 -8.1 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #342 -6.4 #342
Freethrows 14.4 #323 77% #48 11.1 #274
Second Chance 30.1% #204 1.06 #170 0.32 #168
Turnovers 16.6% #176
Total Offense -2.7 #242

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #9 1.24 #275 -6.9 #359
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #354 0.87 #326 +1.9 #60
Three Pointers 39% #232 1.00 #165 +1.2 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #300 -3.9 #299
Freethrows 21.0 #331 75% #281 15.7 #33
Second Chance 31.7% #225 1.05 #192 0.33 #213
Turnovers 17.7% #108
Total Defense -0.8 #198

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #322 3.1% #361
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.4% #336 4.4% #267
Possession Length 16.6 #110 16.2 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #101 0.24 #352
Improvement +2.3 #55 -1.9 #299

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 23.2% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 91.8% 94.7% 82.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 96.9% 87.2%
Conference Champion 23.7% 27.7% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
First Round20.2% 22.3% 13.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 4
Quad 414 - 717 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 79 @Belmont L 79 - 87 10% -6  0 - 1 +2 -1 F C- B- +5 B- A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 150 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 25% -9  0 - 2 -10 +4 C+ F C- -13 F F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 20 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 3% -22  0 - 3 -10 -9 F D+ F +3 B C- A
 Tue, Nov 25 218 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 37% -3  1 - 3 +2 -2 F A- F +4 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 267 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 48% +8  2 - 3 +3 -0 F C A- +4 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 3 300 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 56% -9  2 - 4 -32 -18 F C+ F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 134 @UNLV W 63 - 60 22% -2  3 - 4 +7 -8 D- B F +16 A A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 225 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 61% +15  4 - 4 1 - 0 +1 +2 C+ F C+ -2 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 61% -10  4 - 5 1 - 1 -15 -1 F F A+ -14 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 314 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 60% +9  5 - 5 2 - 1 +6 +12 C- A+ C+ -7 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 3 283 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 52% +3  6 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +4 F A A+ -4 C+ F D
 Thu, Jan 8 357 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 78% +14  7 - 5 4 - 1 +10 +12 C+ A+ D+ -2 B- C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 311 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 59% -8  7 - 6 4 - 2 -10 -0 D+ F C -10 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 304 Morehead St. W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Jan 17 343 Southern Indiana W 80 - 69 85%
 Thu, Jan 22 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Jan 24 252 @Lindenwood L 78 - 79 45%
 Tue, Jan 27 314 Tennessee Tech W 81 - 72 79%
 Thu, Jan 29 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 5 311 Eastern Illinois W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 357 Western Illinois W 77 - 63 91%
 Thu, Feb 12 343 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 72 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 304 @Morehead St. W 75 - 73 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 252 Lindenwood W 81 - 76 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 278 SIU Edwardsville W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 225 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 74 39%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 6 -4 -3 F C C -1 D C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 6.7 8.6 5.1 1.4 23.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 9.4 10.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.0 7.6 1.8 0.1 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 4.1 6.3 1.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.0 1.7 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.6 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 7.3 12.0 17.3 20.3 18.5 12.3 5.6 1.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 98.9% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-4 89.7% 5.1    4.0 1.0 0.0
15-5 69.9% 8.6    5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0
14-6 36.3% 6.7    1.8 3.3 1.4 0.2
13-7 8.9% 1.8    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 12.2 8.0 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.4% 44.4% 44.4% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8
16-4 5.6% 43.2% 43.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.0 3.2
15-5 12.3% 36.2% 36.2% 14.9 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.7 7.8
14-6 18.5% 31.7% 31.7% 15.3 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.1 12.6
13-7 20.3% 20.6% 20.6% 15.5 0.1 1.9 2.2 16.1
12-8 17.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.4 15.2
11-9 12.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.8 0.2 0.8 11.0
10-10 7.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.0
9-11 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.4
8-12 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 15.2 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.1 17.2 54.9 27.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%