Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #154
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 #120
Pace 66.2 #266
Improvement +0.8 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #236 D C+ F A- B-
Defense #95 B- B- C+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #42 1.01 #333 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #204 0.74 #201 -0.7 #213
Three Pointers 36% #281 0.99 #219 -2.9 #283
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #280 -3.4 #279
Freethrows 20.8 #30 75% #125 15.5 #29
Second Chance 36.0% #42 0.98 #259 0.35 #110
Turnovers 20.4% #353
Total Offense -2.5 #236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.26 #294 -3.0 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #37 0.70 #105 -1.6 #290
Three Pointers 33% #351 0.83 #12 +7.1 #4
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #102 +2.5 #101
Freethrows 19.8 #300 71% #116 14.1 #81
Second Chance 25.8% #32 1.09 #252 0.28 #87
Turnovers 17.6% #112
Total Defense +2.8 #95

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #99 -1.3% #79
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #301 -3.7% #110
Possession Length 19.5 #350 16.3 #36
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #207 0.24 #341
Improvement +1.5 #92 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 19.1% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 89.3% 95.0% 82.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 91.9% 74.3%
Conference Champion 17.2% 23.7% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round16.4% 19.1% 13.3%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 410 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 48 @New Mexico L 56 - 74 10% -12  0 - 1 -4 -10 F B- F +7 B A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 192 Missouri St. W 67 - 49 69% +7  1 - 1 +13 -6 C+ D- F +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 251 @Evansville W 84 - 76 60% +3  2 - 1 +6 +15 A+ A+ F -9 C+ F D
 Fri, Nov 21 191 Campbell L 67 - 71 58% +4  2 - 2 -6 -11 F D F +5 B- F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 197 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 48% +0  3 - 2 +2 +4 C+ C+ F -3 C+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 29 108 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 61 46% -3  4 - 2 +6 +5 C C F +2 B B B
 Tue, Dec 2 133 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 83 34% -10  4 - 3 -16 -10 F A+ D -5 D- A+ C
 Thu, Dec 11 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 58 - 50 55% +0  5 - 3 +7 -2 D C+ F +10 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 77 @Stanford L 60 - 76 17% -12  5 - 4 -6 -5 C F C- -2 C- C B+
 Mon, Dec 22 298 @Oral Roberts W 69 - 57 69% +6  6 - 4 +7 -3 C- C+ F +10 A+ B- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 173 Tarleton St. L 63 - 69 66% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -7 F D+ F -3 C B F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 California Baptist W 63 - 51 62% +4  7 - 5 1 - 1 +9 -4 F B- C- +14 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 323 @Southern Utah W 86 - 77 75% +1  8 - 5 2 - 1 +2 +8 B+ F F -7 D- C C
 Sat, Jan 10 212 Abilene Christian W 82 - 72 72% +6  9 - 5 3 - 1 +4 +12 C- A+ C+ -7 F D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 232 @Utah Tech W 70 - 69 54%
 Sat, Jan 17 101 @Utah Valley L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Jan 21 173 Tarleton St. W 74 - 70 66%
 Thu, Jan 29 323 Southern Utah W 76 - 63 89%
 Sat, Jan 31 157 California Baptist W 68 - 65 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 232 @Utah Tech W 70 - 69 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 101 @Utah Valley L 67 - 75 24%
 Thu, Feb 12 212 @Abilene Christian W 68 - 67 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 323 Southern Utah W 76 - 63 89%
 Thu, Feb 19 232 Utah Tech W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 101 Utah Valley L 70 - 72 44%
 Thu, Feb 26 157 @California Baptist L 65 - 68 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 173 @Tarleton St. L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 212 @Abilene Christian W 68 - 67 51%
Totals 17 - 11 11 - 7 +0 -2 D C+ F +3 B- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.7 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 17.2 1st
2nd 0.3 3.7 11.0 11.0 4.8 1.0 0.1 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.0 9.7 6.2 1.3 0.0 21.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.5 3.6 0.4 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.1 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.9 8.7 13.9 17.0 18.2 15.3 10.5 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-3 97.8% 2.4    2.2 0.2
14-4 82.9% 4.6    3.4 1.2 0.0
13-5 54.2% 5.7    3.1 2.4 0.2
12-6 20.2% 3.1    0.8 1.6 0.7 0.0
11-7 3.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 10.4 5.5 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.7% 42.4% 42.4% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 2.4% 40.1% 40.1% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.5
14-4 5.5% 32.5% 32.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.7
13-5 10.5% 28.5% 28.5% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 7.5
12-6 15.3% 23.0% 23.0% 13.6 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.3 11.8
11-7 18.2% 16.8% 16.8% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.4 15.2
10-8 17.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 15.1
9-9 13.9% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 12.8
8-10 8.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.3
7-11 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.6
6-12 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.9
5-13 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 13.6 83.6 0.0%