Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #284
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #274
Pace 72.2 #95
Improvement +2.9 #48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #250 C C F D+ C
Defense #302 D D- D- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.08 #278 +0.9 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #134 0.81 #107 +1.5 #95
Three Pointers 34% #316 1.05 #143 -3.0 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #193 -0.6 #194
Freethrows 17.8 #164 63% #358 11.2 #268
Second Chance 30.3% #195 1.04 #190 0.31 #179
Turnovers 20.0% #346
Total Offense -2.9 #250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.20 #232 -4.7 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.81 #270 -0.7 #231
Three Pointers 34% #342 1.14 #329 +1.5 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #303 -3.9 #302
Freethrows 16.7 #158 71% #123 11.9 #218
Second Chance 34.1% #305 1.15 #303 0.39 #325
Turnovers 13.9% #323
Total Defense -4.1 #302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #181 0.9% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.3% #197 6.7% #299
Possession Length 17.9 #236 15.8 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #227 0.21 #289
Improvement +0.4 #158 +2.5 #51

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 16.4% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 30.9% 35.3% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 95.1% 81.0%
Conference Champion 22.5% 25.3% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four11.5% 11.9% 9.9%
First Round9.9% 10.7% 6.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 413 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 4 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0 - 1 -39 -16 F C- F -19 F F F
 Mon, Nov 10 340 New Haven L 67 - 73 75% +1  0 - 2 -20 -8 F A+ D -12 F F C
 Thu, Nov 13 163 @Columbia L 72 - 86 19% -1  0 - 3 -12 +1 B D+ F -12 D- F A-
 Sun, Nov 16 57 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 5% -15  0 - 4 -22 +3 B+ D- B- -22 F F F
 Wed, Nov 19 114 @Bradley L 77 - 87 10% +0  0 - 5 -3 +10 C+ C+ C+ -14 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 246 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 31% -2  0 - 6 -4 -6 A+ D F +3 A- F C
 Wed, Nov 26 344 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 56% +5  1 - 6 +2 +2 D C C+ +0 A C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 168 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 19% -8  1 - 7 -18 -16 F D+ F -0 C B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 156 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 17% +1  1 - 8 -1 -3 A+ F F +2 B+ F F
 Tue, Dec 16 285 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 62% -0  2 - 8 -5 +3 C D+ A- -9 F B D
 Sun, Dec 21 256 @Boston University L 76 - 88 33% -9  2 - 9 -14 +3 C+ B- F -18 F F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 22 @Iowa L 62 - 90 2% -19  2 - 10 -9 +3 B+ D+ F -14 D- B F
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Albany W 83 - 71 68% +10  3 - 10 1 - 0 +0 +7 D+ A+ C -6 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 329 @Bryant W 77 - 63 52% +6  4 - 10 2 - 0 +7 +10 B+ A- F -2 C- C F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 69% +6  5 - 10 3 - 0 -7 -4 D- D- F -2 D B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 352 NJIT W 80 - 71 81%
 Thu, Jan 22 195 Vermont L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75 - 78 38%
 Thu, Jan 29 335 @New Hampshire W 75 - 74 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 341 @Maine W 69 - 68 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 352 @NJIT W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 309 @Albany L 76 - 77 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 329 Bryant W 74 - 68 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 335 New Hampshire W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 359 Binghamton W 79 - 68 85%
 Thu, Feb 26 195 @Vermont L 70 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 78 - 75 59%
 Tue, Mar 3 341 @Maine W 69 - 68 55%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 6 -7 -3 C C F -4 D D- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.0 7.3 4.5 1.5 0.2 22.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.7 11.5 8.6 2.7 0.3 31.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 7.3 9.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 23.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.5 5.1 1.5 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.9 9.5 14.5 17.9 18.8 15.3 10.0 4.8 1.5 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
14-2 94.2% 4.5    3.7 0.8
13-3 72.6% 7.3    4.8 2.4 0.1
12-4 39.1% 6.0    2.5 2.7 0.7 0.0
11-5 14.5% 2.7    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 13.2 7.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 42.9% 42.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.5% 34.4% 34.4% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.0
14-2 4.8% 30.4% 30.4% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3
13-3 10.0% 24.8% 24.8% 15.9 0.2 2.3 7.5
12-4 15.3% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.1 3.2 12.0
11-5 18.8% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0 15.8
10-6 17.9% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 2.4 15.5
9-7 14.5% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.3 13.2
8-8 9.5% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.6 8.9
7-9 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.3 4.6
6-10 1.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.8
5-11 0.7% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15.9 84.5 0.0%