UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#202
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#241
Pace74.6#66
Improvement-1.4#289

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#179
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#188
Layup/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#85
Freethrows-1.6#283
Improvement-0.4#218

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#233
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#216
Layups/Dunks+0.0#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#260
Freethrows+0.0#189
Improvement-1.0#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 8.4% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 43.1% 61.8% 36.5%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 78.4% 54.2%
Conference Champion 4.1% 9.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 1.5% 6.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round5.1% 8.3% 4.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 28 @Baylor L 81-96 5%     0 - 1 +1.9 +5.6 -2.2
  Sat, Nov 8 331 @Southern Utah W 95-72 65%     1 - 1 +16.3 +14.4 +0.9
  Tue, Nov 11 61 @Boise St. L 65-85 9%     1 - 2 -7.7 -4.7 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 22 239 @Missouri St. L 67-74 46%     1 - 3 -8.6 +1.7 -11.1
  Mon, Nov 24 13 @Illinois L 73-87 2%     1 - 4 +7.0 +9.1 -2.1
  Wed, Dec 3 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 26%    
  Sun, Dec 7 165 Austin Peay W 75-74 54%    
  Thu, Dec 11 184 Texas Arlington W 76-74 58%    
  Tue, Dec 16 199 @Lamar L 69-72 38%    
  Mon, Dec 29 205 New Orleans W 80-77 61%    
  Wed, Dec 31 270 Nicholls St. W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-72 65%    
  Mon, Jan 5 192 Incarnate Word W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 308 @East Texas A&M W 75-73 58%    
  Mon, Jan 12 285 @Northwestern St. W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 82 McNeese St. L 70-77 28%    
  Mon, Jan 19 250 SE Louisiana W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 276 @Houston Christian W 73-72 53%    
  Mon, Jan 26 226 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 192 @Incarnate Word L 74-78 37%    
  Mon, Feb 2 276 Houston Christian W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 205 @New Orleans L 77-80 41%    
  Mon, Feb 9 270 @Nicholls St. W 75-74 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 139 Stephen F. Austin L 75-76 47%    
  Mon, Feb 16 199 Lamar W 72-69 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 250 @SE Louisiana L 72-73 48%    
  Mon, Feb 23 82 @McNeese St. L 67-80 14%    
  Sat, Feb 28 308 East Texas A&M W 78-70 76%    
  Mon, Mar 2 285 Northwestern St. W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 11 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.0 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.7 2.9 1.0 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.8 2.4 0.6 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.2 7.0 9.1 10.3 10.8 11.1 10.3 9.0 7.4 5.4 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
20-2 95.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
19-3 79.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1
18-4 56.0% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
17-5 32.6% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-6 11.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.1% 46.4% 46.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.3% 37.9% 37.9% 12.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-3 0.9% 30.8% 30.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
18-4 1.9% 23.7% 23.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5
17-5 3.3% 25.1% 25.1% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4
16-6 5.4% 19.8% 19.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.3
15-7 7.4% 12.3% 12.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 6.5
14-8 9.0% 7.3% 7.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.4
13-9 10.3% 3.7% 3.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.9
12-10 11.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
11-11 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 10.7
10-12 10.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.3
9-13 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
8-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-15 5.2% 5.2
6-16 3.4% 3.4
5-17 2.3% 2.3
4-18 1.2% 1.2
3-19 0.7% 0.7
2-20 0.2% 0.2
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.4 94.9 0.0%