Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#281
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#302
Pace67.1#254
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#323
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#340
Layup/Dunks-0.4#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows-1.7#288
Improvement-0.6#249

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#201
First Shot+0.5#150
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#284
Layups/Dunks-6.7#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#24
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement+0.6#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 5.6% 8.1% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 25.2% 16.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.5% 23.3% 30.7%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round1.6% 1.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 73 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 286 @South Dakota W 81-79 OT 40%     1 - 0 -1.8 -7.9 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 7 11 @Arizona L 67-93 1%     1 - 1 -4.3 +3.6 -7.4
  Sun, Nov 9 83 @Arizona St. L 66-81 7%     1 - 2 -5.1 -4.8 -0.1
  Wed, Nov 12 318 Manhattan L 75-79 57%     1 - 3 -12.4 -1.3 -11.5
  Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81-75 2OT 92%     2 - 3 -16.0 -6.1 -10.3
  Sat, Nov 15 110 @Hawaii L 62-68 12%     2 - 4 +0.5 -4.9 +5.4
  Tue, Nov 25 156 Portland St. L 63-68 38%     2 - 5 -8.3 -10.9 +2.7
  Sat, Nov 29 257 UC Riverside W 70-68 56%    
  Wed, Dec 3 59 @Santa Clara L 61-80 4%    
  Sat, Dec 20 229 @Weber St. L 70-75 30%    
  Mon, Dec 22 45 @Creighton L 60-81 3%    
  Mon, Dec 29 331 Southern Utah W 75-69 71%    
  Thu, Jan 1 252 @Abilene Christian L 62-66 34%    
  Thu, Jan 8 136 @California Baptist L 61-72 16%    
  Sat, Jan 10 89 @Utah Valley L 62-77 8%    
  Thu, Jan 15 184 Texas Arlington L 67-69 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 195 Tarleton St. L 70-71 45%    
  Wed, Jan 21 136 @California Baptist L 61-72 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 331 Southern Utah W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 252 @Abilene Christian L 62-66 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 195 @Tarleton St. L 67-74 26%    
  Thu, Feb 5 184 Texas Arlington L 67-69 43%    
  Thu, Feb 12 89 Utah Valley L 65-74 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 136 California Baptist L 64-69 33%    
  Thu, Feb 19 184 @Texas Arlington L 64-72 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 195 @Tarleton St. L 67-74 26%    
  Thu, Feb 26 252 Abilene Christian W 65-63 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 331 @Southern Utah W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Mar 7 89 Utah Valley L 65-74 21%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.7 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.4 2.7 6.6 8.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 23.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 6.2 8.8 7.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 27.5 6th
7th 0.4 1.9 3.7 5.4 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 18.3 7th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.0 7.9 11.0 13.8 14.6 14.1 10.9 8.8 5.8 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 78.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 76.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 41.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 13.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 22.4% 22.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 21.8% 21.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 2.1% 12.5% 12.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
11-7 3.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.3
10-8 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.4
9-9 8.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.5
8-10 10.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.7
7-11 14.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.9
6-12 14.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.4
5-13 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-14 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
3-15 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
2-16 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%