Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #195
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #193
Pace 61.8 #347
Improvement -1.9 #277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #135 B- D B D C
Defense #267 D- B+ F C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.29 #61 +0.4 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #229 0.76 #161 -1.0 #222
Three Pointers 47% #69 1.02 #168 +3.3 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #104 +2.7 #105
Freethrows 14.5 #317 73% #164 10.6 #293
Second Chance 23.9% #336 1.08 #144 0.26 #296
Turnovers 14.7% #66
Total Offense +0.9 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.26 #296 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #80 0.77 #191 -1.5 #287
Three Pointers 41% #182 1.17 #347 -3.3 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #311 -4.5 #312
Freethrows 17.4 #190 73% #190 12.7 #173
Second Chance 27.4% #73 0.96 #83 0.26 #51
Turnovers 12.7% #350
Total Defense -3.1 #267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #178 -1.4% #68
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #100 10.3% #336
Possession Length 18.7 #315 17.5 #221
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #360 0.13 #53
Improvement -3.3 #346 +1.5 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.7% 44.7% 37.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 98.2% 98.8% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.6% 97.3%
Conference Champion 67.7% 70.5% 48.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.6% 6.2% 9.7%
First Round40.7% 41.9% 32.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 419 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 248 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 49% -3  1 - 0 +3 +7 D C- A+ -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 236 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 46% +0  2 - 0 +10 +9 A+ F C +0 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 199 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 39% -0  2 - 1 -3 +10 A+ D- C+ -14 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 95 Liberty L 73 - 79 23% -10  2 - 2 -0 +4 B D- C -5 F A- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 123 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 33% -7  2 - 3 -13 +2 C B C -16 F D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 221 Princeton W 79 - 74 54% +7  3 - 3 +2 +14 A B+ B+ -12 F D+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 94 Yale L 74 - 77 31% -3  3 - 4 -0 +8 A+ F D -9 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 189 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 37% -16  3 - 5 -21 -7 D- F C -16 F A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 286 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 57% +1  4 - 5 +5 +1 B F D+ +5 B- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 241 Merrimack W 66 - 59 70% +7  5 - 5 -1 +3 D F A+ -3 C+ D C+
 Wed, Dec 17 177 Siena W 83 - 69 58% +12  6 - 5 +10 +9 A- C A+ +0 B A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 198 Iona L 78 - 83 62% -0  6 - 6 -10 +6 B- F A+ -17 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 221 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 42% -4  6 - 7 -6 +1 D- B+ C+ -7 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 335 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 71% +9  7 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +13 A+ B- B +0 D- B- B+
 Thu, Jan 8 359 Binghamton W 60 - 59 92% -1  8 - 7 2 - 0 -17 -13 F F C -4 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 341 Maine W 71 - 59 87%
 Mon, Jan 19 309 @Albany W 74 - 70 63%
 Thu, Jan 22 284 @Umass Lowell W 75 - 73 57%
 Sat, Jan 24 329 @Bryant W 70 - 65 69%
 Thu, Jan 29 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76 - 68 76%
 Sat, Jan 31 352 NJIT W 78 - 64 90%
 Thu, Feb 5 341 @Maine W 68 - 62 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 335 New Hampshire W 76 - 64 87%
 Thu, Feb 12 359 @Binghamton W 74 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 329 Bryant W 73 - 62 85%
 Thu, Feb 19 277 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 352 @NJIT W 75 - 67 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 284 Umass Lowell W 78 - 70 76%
 Tue, Mar 3 309 Albany W 77 - 67 81%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 3 -2 +1 B- D B -3 D- B+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.2 11.5 18.2 18.2 11.6 3.7 67.7 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 7.0 6.3 2.5 0.4 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.7 7.9 13.3 18.3 20.7 18.5 11.6 3.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.7    3.7
15-1 100.0% 11.6    11.5 0.1
14-2 98.0% 18.2    16.8 1.3
13-3 87.8% 18.2    14.3 3.8 0.1
12-4 63.3% 11.5    6.1 4.6 0.8 0.0
11-5 31.3% 4.2    1.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 67.7% 67.7 53.5 11.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.7% 62.1% 62.1% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 1.4
15-1 11.6% 56.4% 56.4% 14.4 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.9 0.1 5.1
14-2 18.5% 53.0% 53.0% 15.0 0.1 1.8 6.0 1.9 8.7
13-3 20.7% 45.9% 45.9% 15.4 0.0 0.5 4.3 4.7 11.2
12-4 18.3% 40.5% 40.5% 15.7 0.1 2.1 5.2 10.9
11-5 13.3% 34.5% 34.5% 15.8 0.0 0.8 3.8 8.7
10-6 7.9% 29.0% 29.0% 15.9 0.3 2.0 5.6
9-7 3.7% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 2.8
8-8 1.7% 20.7% 20.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.3
7-9 0.5% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.1 0.4
6-10 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 43.7% 43.7% 0.0% 15.2 56.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 13.2 0.2 14.4 55.0 27.5 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%