Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#292
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#277
Pace67.0#255
Improvement-1.8#316

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#300
First Shot-6.6#347
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#81
Layup/Dunks-4.1#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows-3.3#336
Improvement-0.3#217

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#253
First Shot+0.5#149
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#330
Layups/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#196
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement-1.5#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 26.5% 17.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 47.2% 72.3% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 91.3% 83.3%
Conference Champion 24.2% 35.7% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.1% 2.5%
First Four13.8% 15.1% 13.7%
First Round10.4% 18.1% 9.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 21 - 6
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-103 4%     0 - 1 -15.9 +3.6 -17.1
  Fri, Nov 7 76 @Seton Hall L 61-68 6%     0 - 2 +3.6 +0.5 +2.5
  Tue, Nov 11 212 @Fordham L 61-63 25%     0 - 3 -2.3 -1.1 -1.5
  Sun, Nov 16 289 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 OT 38%     0 - 4 -5.1 -10.6 +5.5
  Sat, Nov 22 79 @Georgetown L 75-92 6%     0 - 5 -6.7 +2.7 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 318 @Manhattan W 103-101 OT 43%     1 - 5 -3.4 +12.0 -15.6
  Tue, Dec 2 93 @Maryland L 64-80 7%    
  Wed, Dec 17 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-60 72%    
  Fri, Jan 2 340 @Chicago St. W 73-72 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 334 Stonehill W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 359 St. Francis (PA) W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 320 Mercyhurst W 68-64 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 345 @New Haven W 67-66 54%    
  Mon, Jan 19 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 65%    
  Fri, Jan 23 336 @Le Moyne W 74-73 52%    
  Sun, Jan 25 232 @LIU Brooklyn L 69-75 29%    
  Thu, Jan 29 244 Central Connecticut St. W 67-66 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-68 81%    
  Thu, Feb 5 336 Le Moyne W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 64-70 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 232 LIU Brooklyn L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 334 @Stonehill W 68-67 49%    
  Thu, Feb 19 320 @Mercyhurst L 65-67 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 359 @St. Francis (PA) W 73-69 62%    
  Thu, Feb 26 345 New Haven W 70-63 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 340 Chicago St. W 76-69 72%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.8 6.2 4.5 2.2 23.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.9 7.1 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.9 5.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.0 4.5 1.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.3 9.0 11.3 12.9 13.4 12.4 10.2 7.6 4.8 2.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 98.5% 2.2    2.2 0.0 0.0
15-1 94.0% 4.5    4.0 0.5
14-2 81.5% 6.2    4.6 1.5 0.1
13-3 57.6% 5.8    3.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
12-4 28.2% 3.5    1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 6.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.3% 23.3 15.4 6.1 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 49.9% 49.9% 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1
15-1 4.8% 39.3% 39.3% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9
14-2 7.6% 36.0% 36.0% 16.0 0.1 2.7 4.9
13-3 10.2% 29.1% 29.1% 16.0 0.1 2.9 7.2
12-4 12.4% 22.4% 22.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8 9.7
11-5 13.4% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1 11.2
10-6 12.9% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 1.5 11.4
9-7 11.3% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.0 10.4
8-8 9.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.6 8.4
7-9 6.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.3 6.0
6-10 4.4% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.2 4.1
5-11 2.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 2.4
4-12 1.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 16.5 82.6 0.0%