Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -10.2 320
Results Rating -10.8 331
Consistency 0.12 36
Pace 64.2 296
Improvement -2.4 279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 306 D C+ D D+ C-
Defense D 313 D+ C- D F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 212 F+ 49% 357 -4.1 321
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 86 C+ 39% 123 +1.6 94
Three Pointers 39% 229 C 34% 193 -1.4 230
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 254 D -3.4 298
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 300
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 127 C 1.03 169 C+ 0.33 124
Opponents' Steals D- 11.2% 320
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 266
Turnovers D 19.2% 320
Freethrows D+ 0.28 267 C- 71% 234 D+ 0.20 274
Total Offense D -5.2 306

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 266 D 13.7% 324
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 221 B- 3.4% 66
Three Pointers C 83% 214 B- 0.6% 101
Total D+ 51% 280 C- 6.2% 245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 34 C+ 56% 130 +2.6 272
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 311 C- 39% 223 -1.5 69
Three Pointers 39% 227 D- 38% 326 +1.4 257
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 343 C- +1.5 241
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 260
Second Chance C 30.7% 201 C- 1.07 235 C- 0.33 230
Turnovers from Steals D 7.3% 327
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 246
Turnovers D 14.2% 326
Freethrows F+ 0.38 343 C- 73% 223 F+ 0.27 344
Total Defense D -5.0 313

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 289 D 7.0% 325
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 255 C- 3.8% 245
Three Pointers C- 86% 239 F+ -0.3% 364
Total D+ 60% 294 D 3.6% 328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 305 16.8 98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 333 0.21 309
Consistency 0.11 85 0.12 142
Improvement -3.5 337 +1.0 126

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 335 322 310
Results Rating Rank 342 328 284
Conference Record 7 - 9 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 70% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 7% 6%
First Round3% 3% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 70.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1010 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ C D F -11 C- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 54 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 3% -3  23% 0 - 2 B- +6 C+ +3 A A- F B- +3 B- C- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 153 @Fordham L 61 - 63 11% +2  56% 0 - 3 C +1 C +1 D- A C C -0 B C F
 Sun, Nov 16 235 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 19% +1  51% 0 - 4 C- -2 F -11 F C+ F A +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 82 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 4% -11  10% 0 - 5 D+ -7 C -0 C+ C- F D -6 D+ C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 324 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 39% -8  6% 1 - 5 D+ -5 A- +10 A+ B- D- F -16 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 102 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  9% 1 - 6 F -18 F -12 F F+ F D -5 B+ C F
 Wed, Dec 17 351 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 73% +6  94% 2 - 6 C- -3 C+ +3 D A A+ D+ -5 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 347 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 50% +4  93% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C- -3 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -9 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 337 Stonehill L 60 - 69 67% -2  35% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -24 F+ -8 D- B- F+ F -17 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 355 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 77% +1  49% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -20 F -12 F C+ D F+ -9 D- D D
 Sat, Jan 10 289 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 51% +1  57% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -12 D -5 D+ B- C- D- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 329 @New Haven L 74 - 80 41% -8  0% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D- -14 B+ +9 A A F F -24 F A D-
 Mon, Jan 19 339 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 45% -4  3% 3 - 11 1 - 5 F+ -16 D- -7 F C B- F -11 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 293 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 30% +2  65% 3 - 12 1 - 6 D+ -7 C +0 A- D+ F D- -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 302 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 54% -2  29% 3 - 13 1 - 7 F -18 F -18 F C- C+ C -1 C B D+
 Sat, Jan 31 339 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 67% +1  56% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D- -12 D- -6 F C+ B D -5 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 293 Le Moyne W 79 - 78 52% +1  46% 5 - 13 3 - 7 D -10 C +1 A- B+ F F -11 F B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 302 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 84 32% -9  2% 5 - 14 3 - 8 F -22 F+ -8 F C+ D+ F -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 218 LIU Brooklyn L 57 - 67 35% -1  31% 5 - 15 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -20 F+ F F B +4 B B+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 337 @Stonehill W 68 - 57 44% +4  62% 6 - 15 4 - 9 C+ +2 C- -2 F A- D+ B +5 A+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 16 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 83 17% -7  20% 6 - 16 4 - 10 F -18 D+ -3 C+ D- F F -17 F C D-
 Thu, Feb 19 289 @Mercyhurst W 83 - 80 OT 29% +4  70% 7 - 16 5 - 10 C -2 C +1 D+ B F+ C- -3 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 65 - 56 57% +3  85% 8 - 16 6 - 10 C- -3 F -13 F F+ F A +10 B B- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 329 New Haven W 65 - 62 64% -2  18% 9 - 16 7 - 10 D -11 D- -6 F+ C B+ D+ -4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 28 347 Chicago St. W 73 - 67 70%
Totals 10 - 16 8 - 10 -10 D -5 F D C- D -5 C C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C+ C D 37% 46% 39% C- D C+ C C+ D D+ C- D+ D C+ C- D- C- 44% 16% 39% D- D+ C C- C- D F+ C- F+
1.01 49% 39% 34% -3 0 0.94 32% 1.0 .33 19% .28 71% .20 1.16 56% 39% 38% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .33 14% .38 73% .20
Nov
3		 Virginia Commonwealth C- F C- A+ D+ 48% 21% 31% C+ D+ B- D C D A+ C- A F C- A+ C- C 47% 2% 51% F C- F+ F F D F A- D
0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28 1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32
Nov
7		 Seton Hall C+ F A+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A C+ A+ A- F F F F B- D+ A+ B B- 46% 17% 37% D B- F A+ C- C+ F A+ C+
0.95 29% 50% 48% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 31% .27 42% .11 1.05 62% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 50% 0.8 .38 17% .45 50% .22
Nov
11		 Fordham C F B+ B- D- 27% 29% 45% D+ D- A- A A C F F F C A+ F A- A- 48% 20% 33% D B A+ F C F F C- F
1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06 1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28
Nov
16		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 50% 24% 26% C F C- B+ C+ F B- F C A B C- A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B- A+ F F F A+ F A- F
0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16 0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38
Nov
22		 Georgetown C C- C- B C+ 37% 21% 42% B- C+ C- C C- F B C+ B D C- B- F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C D+ A- F C- D+ F F F
1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24 1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38
Nov
26		 Manhattan A- B- A A+ A+ 60% 12% 29% A A+ A F+ B- D- A+ C- A+ F A+ F F F 37% 23% 40% C F+ F D- F F+ F B- F
1.33 65% 50% 60% +16 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31 1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39
Dec
2		 Maryland F F+ B F F 33% 23% 44% D+ F D+ F F+ F B- A+ A D C A+ A+ A 50% 12% 38% F B+ F+ A- C F F C+ F
0.85 47% 42% 26% -8 -1 0.85 24% 0.7 .16 24% .32 83% .27 1.20 58% 17% 25% -8 +2 0.90 42% 0.9 .38 11% .68 71% .49
Dec
17		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ F+ A- D+ D 34% 19% 47% D+ D F+ A+ A A+ A+ F B D+ F F B F 42% 20% 38% D- F C+ A+ A+ C D- A C-
1.20 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 2.0 .51 8% .47 61% .28 0.98 68% 67% 29% +7 0 1.18 27% 0.3 .07 23% .28 64% .18
Jan
2		 Chicago St. B F C- A+ D 45% 23% 32% D D C+ A B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F+ A+ A F C+ 47% 26% 26% F C C- A B- F F F F
1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39 1.12 36% 29% 50% -7 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39
Jan
4		 Stonehill F+ F D+ A D- 52% 24% 24% C+ D- B- C B- F+ F A+ D+ F B+ F F F 47% 17% 36% D F C- C C- F F A- F
0.98 42% 33% 42% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18 1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23
Jan
8		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ F F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F A- F C+ D C F D F+ D C- C D 40% 17% 44% F+ D- C- F+ D D F F F
1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23 1.09 63% 38% 33% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30
Jan
10		 Mercyhurst D F A+ A+ D 53% 8% 39% A- D+ D+ A B- C- F+ F F D- C D F D- 51% 22% 27% F F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17 1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 New Haven B+ A- B+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% D+ A A+ F A F F D- F F F A+ F F 28% 15% 57% C- F C A+ A D- C- F F
1.22 69% 44% 45% +12 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11 1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- D C- F+ F 36% 36% 29% F F F A+ C B- D+ A+ B F A+ F F F 19% 44% 36% A+ D- F F F A+ F F+ F
1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28 1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43
Jan
23		 Le Moyne C B- A A A- 45% 16% 39% B- A- C+ F+ D+ F F+ F F D- A A+ B+ A+ 45% 14% 40% D A+ F D- F F F C F
1.10 60% 43% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.9 .30 20% .25 58% .14 1.13 47% 17% 29% -11 +1 0.83 38% 1.1 .44 13% .64 71% .45
Jan
29		 Central Connecticut St. F F A+ F F 40% 7% 53% B- F C C- C- C+ A+ F A C D A+ B+ B 43% 13% 43% F C A F B D+ D- B- D
0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28 1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24
Jan
31		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- F F B- F 46% 13% 40% B+ F C+ C+ C+ B B A+ A D B- F F F 52% 9% 39% F F A+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32 1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07
Feb
5		 Le Moyne C A B+ B- A 43% 22% 35% C A- D A+ B+ F B+ A- A- F F+ F A- F 54% 15% 30% F+ F B C B- C D D D-
1.15 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .42 20% .37 80% .29 1.14 68% 86% 29% +10 +2 1.26 21% 1.0 .21 20% .37 75% .28
Feb
7		 Central Connecticut St. F+ F B+ F F 41% 20% 39% D F C B+ C+ D+ C- F D F F A F F 36% 43% 21% B+ F F+ F F D+ F C F
1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18 1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43
Feb
12		 LIU Brooklyn F D C+ F F+ 38% 21% 40% D F+ F F F F B- F D- B D- C+ A+ A- 57% 17% 26% F B A C- B+ D F B F
0.81 50% 40% 26% -7 0 0.87 24% 0.8 .19 24% .36 53% .19 0.95 65% 38% 8% -6 +2 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .45 62% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Stonehill C- C- F C+ F+ 36% 36% 28% F F A+ D- A- D+ B- A B+ B A+ C A A+ 36% 16% 48% C- A+ C- F F C+ D+ F D
1.03 56% 17% 36% -8 -2 0.82 45% 0.9 .43 14% .32 78% .25 0.87 28% 38% 25% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 21% .25 77% .19
Feb
16		 LIU Brooklyn D+ C- F A+ B 41% 32% 27% F C+ A F D- F A+ F B F C F F F 49% 12% 39% F F C+ C- C D- B D C+
1.02 56% 29% 50% +3 -1 1.05 44% 0.6 .26 24% .45 59% .27 1.30 58% 67% 53% +14 +2 1.35 33% 1.0 .33 17% .25 69% .17
Feb
19		 Mercyhurst C F A+ A C 30% 36% 34% F D+ B- C+ B F+ A+ A A+ C- A D+ F D+ 33% 33% 33% C D+ D+ A C+ D- F A+ F
1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41 1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26
Feb
21		 St. Francis (PA) F A- F F F 25% 18% 57% F+ F C+ F F+ F A+ A- A+ A B- A+ B- A- 44% 17% 40% F B F+ A+ B- C- D- A+ B
1.00 73% 25% 28% -4 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 23% .46 78% .36 0.86 52% 13% 32% -8 +1 0.88 33% 0.6 .21 18% .32 47% .15
Feb
26		 New Haven D- F A+ D- F+ 30% 21% 49% D- F+ D+ B C B+ C- A C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% F A+ B- F C- F F F F
1.04 36% 60% 30% -5 -1 0.91 25% 1.3 .31 13% .26 86% .22 0.99 43% 20% 23% -16 +2 0.73 19% 1.1 .22 10% .37 90% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 16.3 16.3 5th
6th 32.9 32.9 6th
7th 18.9 18.9 7th
8th 29.7 2.2 31.9 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 29.7 70.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 70.3% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 5.3 65.0
7-9 29.7% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.9 27.8
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 16.0 92.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.3%
Lose Out 13.4%