Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -13.2 #338
Pace 65.9 #276
Improvement -4.0 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 D+ B- D+ D C
Defense #323 C- C F F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 0.94 #361 -3.8 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #147 0.82 #90 +1.3 #103
Three Pointers 38% #235 1.09 #90 +0.1 #177
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #241 -2.4 #241
Freethrows 15.7 #270 67% #316 10.6 #298
Second Chance 31.7% #147 1.14 #75 0.36 #88
Turnovers 17.8% #257
Total Offense -4.4 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.11 #114 -2.5 #268
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #315 0.82 #276 +1.3 #96
Three Pointers 39% #230 1.09 #281 -0.6 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #240 -1.8 #240
Freethrows 21.4 #339 73% #191 15.6 #35
Second Chance 30.8% #184 1.06 #205 0.33 #194
Turnovers 12.7% #351
Total Defense -4.9 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #204 2.2% #346
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #240 1.3% #212
Possession Length 18.1 #253 14.2 #1
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.23 #336
Improvement -1.0 #242 -3.0 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 11.7% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 11.6% 19.0% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 70.0% 40.9%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 5.5% 17.4%
First Four8.9% 10.4% 7.6%
First Round5.4% 6.7% 4.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Haven (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1111 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 3% -12  0 - 1 -15 +1 D+ C+ D -14 C- F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 49 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 3% -3  0 - 2 +7 +4 A+ A F +2 B- C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 183 @Fordham L 61 - 63 16% +2  0 - 3 -1 +0 F A+ D -1 A- C F
 Sun, Nov 16 277 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 29% +1  0 - 4 -5 -11 F C F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 100 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 6% -11  0 - 5 -9 +0 C D+ F -8 F C C
 Wed, Nov 26 312 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 37% -8  1 - 5 -4 +14 A+ A- D -18 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 112 @Maryland L 63 - 89 7% -9  1 - 6 -19 -8 F F F -9 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 17 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 64% +6  2 - 6 +1 +7 C- A+ A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 349 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 53% +4  3 - 6 1 - 0 -3 +8 D B+ A+ -10 C B F
 Sun, Jan 4 344 Stonehill L 60 - 69 69% -2  3 - 7 1 - 1 -24 -9 F B- F -16 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 360 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 79% +1  3 - 8 1 - 2 -20 -6 F C D -14 F D- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 308 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 59% +1  3 - 9 1 - 3 -13 -2 C C+ C -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 340 @New Haven L 65 - 66 46%
 Mon, Jan 19 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 73 - 72 53%
 Fri, Jan 23 295 @Le Moyne L 72 - 77 34%
 Sun, Jan 25 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 78 19%
 Thu, Jan 29 260 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 71 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 76 - 69 73%
 Thu, Feb 5 295 Le Moyne W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 74 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 219 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 75 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 344 @Stonehill L 68 - 69 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 308 @Mercyhurst L 65 - 69 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 360 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 71 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 340 New Haven W 68 - 63 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 349 Chicago St. W 77 - 70 72%
Totals 10 - 16 8 - 10 -9 -4 D+ B- D+ -5 C- C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.8 6.0 6.0 1.2 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.5 5.1 7.5 1.9 0.1 15.1 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 7.3 2.5 0.2 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.2 3.1 0.2 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.4 0.2 6.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.6 8.9 13.2 16.5 17.2 14.6 10.8 6.8 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 74.1% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-3 42.8% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1
12-4 12.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.3% 44.8% 44.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 1.3% 33.1% 33.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 0.9
12-4 3.1% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.4
11-5 6.8% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3 5.5
10-6 10.8% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7 9.1
9-7 14.6% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 1.7 13.0
8-8 17.2% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.5 15.7
7-9 16.5% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 1.1 15.4
6-10 13.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.7 12.5
5-11 8.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.5
4-12 4.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 4.5
3-13 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 1.9
2-14 0.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 16.0 90.2 0.0%