Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #197
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #218
Pace 70.5 #140
Improvement -0.9 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #160 C C C+ B- A-
Defense #247 C C- D C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #18 1.15 #197 +4.5 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #296 0.57 #356 -3.5 #337
Three Pointers 38% #240 1.07 #116 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #164 +0.7 #163
Freethrows 20.0 #65 70% #262 14.0 #101
Second Chance 32.0% #140 1.01 #229 0.32 #158
Turnovers 15.8% #131
Total Offense +0.2 #160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.26 #297 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #263 0.74 #145 +1.3 #88
Three Pointers 41% #173 0.88 #39 +2.6 #90
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.4 #169
Freethrows 18.4 #235 71% #102 13.0 #155
Second Chance 30.7% #179 1.13 #290 0.35 #254
Turnovers 14.8% #289
Total Defense -2.4 #247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #33 1.1% #278
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #195 -1.6% #154
Possession Length 16.9 #142 17.3 #185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #72 0.16 #129
Improvement +0.4 #154 -1.3 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.7% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 50.6% 58.1% 31.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 85.3% 62.2%
Conference Champion 12.0% 14.7% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round9.3% 10.3% 6.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 411 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 113 @Utah L 89 - 92 OT 20% +3  0 - 1 +4 +2 F A D +3 A+ F C
 Wed, Nov 12 28 @Utah St. L 73 - 83 4% -4  0 - 2 +8 +6 F A+ A- +2 A+ B F
 Sat, Nov 15 122 @UC Irvine L 70 - 79 23% -8  0 - 3 -4 -3 F D C +0 C- A- C
 Wed, Nov 19 191 Campbell W 91 - 85 60% +5  1 - 3 +1 +10 A+ C C -9 B+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 154 Texas Arlington L 73 - 74 52% -0  1 - 4 -4 +5 C+ A+ C+ -9 D- C- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 346 UMKC W 82 - 61 88% +10  2 - 4 +6 +5 A+ F F +1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 298 Oral Roberts W 92 - 66 80% +17  3 - 4 +15 +10 A+ F A+ +4 C A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 128 @St. Thomas L 65 - 88 25% -18  3 - 5 -18 -7 F D+ F -11 F F C
 Wed, Dec 10 346 @UMKC W 64 - 60 74% +3  4 - 5 -5 -15 F C F +10 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 101 @Utah Valley L 74 - 90 17% -9  4 - 6 -8 +11 C- A+ A+ -20 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 232 Utah Tech L 80 - 82 67% -1  4 - 7 -9 +7 A+ F C -16 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 145 Portland St. L 90 - 95 OT 50% -0  4 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +3 C D A+ -9 C+ D F
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Sacramento St. W 95 - 82 81% +10  5 - 8 1 - 1 +1 +8 C+ B C -8 F A A
 Thu, Jan 8 296 @Northern Arizona W 78 - 65 60% +5  6 - 8 2 - 1 +8 +12 C B+ A+ -2 B D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 174 @Northern Colorado W 76 - 71 34% +1  7 - 8 3 - 1 +7 +7 B D D+ +0 A+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 255 Eastern Washington W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Jan 17 194 Idaho W 78 - 75 61%
 Thu, Jan 22 186 @Montana L 76 - 80 37%
 Sat, Jan 24 161 @Montana St. L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Jan 31 196 Idaho St. W 77 - 74 62%
 Mon, Feb 2 307 @Sacramento St. W 83 - 80 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 174 Northern Colorado W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 296 Northern Arizona W 79 - 70 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 194 @Idaho L 75 - 78 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 255 @Eastern Washington W 80 - 79 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 161 Montana St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 186 Montana W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 196 @Idaho St. L 74 - 77 39%
 Mon, Mar 2 145 @Portland St. L 72 - 78 29%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -2 +0 C C C+ -2 C C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 12.0 1st
2nd 0.3 3.4 7.0 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.5 8.3 4.0 0.5 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 8.2 4.3 0.4 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.4 4.7 0.5 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.0 0.8 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.0 1.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.2 10.8 14.9 17.5 16.8 13.4 8.9 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.3% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 90.8% 1.7    1.5 0.3
14-4 72.4% 3.6    2.4 1.1 0.1
13-5 43.8% 3.9    1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 14.9% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 6.2 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 32.7% 32.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.9% 25.4% 25.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.4
14-4 4.9% 22.9% 22.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 3.8
13-5 8.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 7.4
12-6 13.4% 13.1% 13.1% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 11.6
11-7 16.8% 10.6% 10.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.3 15.0
10-8 17.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 16.1
9-9 14.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 14.1
8-10 10.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 10.3
7-11 6.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 6.1
6-12 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.9 90.3 0.0%