Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -18.4 363
Results Rating -20.3 361
Consistency 0.19 354
Pace 66.1 247
Improvement -2.5 283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F 360 F D- C- D+ D
Defense D- 352 D- D- D C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 246 F 47% 362 -5.4 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 28 D 33% 321 +1.8 84
Three Pointers 35% 306 D- 29% 338 -5.6 338
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 326 F -7.9 363
1st FG Attempt F 0.84 362
Second Chance D- 24.1% 335 D+ 0.96 293 D- 0.23 339
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 233
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 198
Turnovers C- 17.3% 215
Freethrows C 0.30 203 F 65% 359 D+ 0.19 283
Total Offense F -11.0 360

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 26% 364 D+ 12.4% 272
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 307 D 7.3% 313
Three Pointers D 77% 323 C 0.9% 184
Total F 37% 365 D 6.9% 315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 38 F+ 66% 352 +7.1 358
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 309 C- 40% 250 -1.5 68
Three Pointers 39% 228 D+ 36% 261 +0.2 191
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 341 D- +4.7 342
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 343
Second Chance D 34.1% 319 D- 1.15 335 D- 0.39 342
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.0% 336
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 183
Turnovers D 14.3% 324
Freethrows C- 0.31 216 C 73% 202 C- 0.23 224
Total Defense D- -7.4 352

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 284 F+ 5.2% 353
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 164 C- 4.3% 202
Three Pointers C+ 83% 145 D 0.2% 324
Total C- 58% 230 D- 3.1% 346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 336 16.0 15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 346 0.23 339
Consistency 0.13 241 0.17 361
Improvement -1.9 287 -0.6 221

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 364 363 361
Results Rating Rank 363 361 360
Conference Record 1 - 19 1 - 19 2 - 18
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 42 - 192 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 230 @Radford L 75 - 80 6% -5  6% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B+ +8 D A+ C F -15 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  7% 0 - 2 C -0 D+ -3 D- C- C C+ +0 F+ A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 17% -7  4% 0 - 3 F -24 F -19 D- F F D -6 F+ C C
 Fri, Nov 14 134 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 3% -6  2% 0 - 4 D+ -5 D -4 D+ F B C- -2 B+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 228 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 14% -13  0% 0 - 5 F -27 F -15 F B D+ F -10 D- F+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 291 North Dakota L 69 - 78 23% +1  51% 0 - 6 F -20 F -18 D D- F+ C- -2 F+ B B
 Tue, Dec 2 189 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0% 0 - 7 F -50 F -14 F F B F -41 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 291 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 11% +1  53% 1 - 7 C- -2 F -14 F A- D A+ +12 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 278 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 9% -13  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 F -20 D -5 D C- B+ F -14 F F F+
 Mon, Dec 22 260 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 18% +3  70% 1 - 9 0 - 2 D- -14 F -15 D F+ D C+ +1 B+ F A
 Thu, Jan 1 214 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 5% +2  56% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D+ -7 D -6 C F D+ C- -2 B- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 231 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 6% -9  4% 1 - 11 0 - 4 F -24 F -19 F F F D- -6 F+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 217 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 13% -14  0% 1 - 12 0 - 5 F -28 F -14 F D+ A- F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 311 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 27% +2  68% 1 - 13 0 - 6 F+ -17 F -20 F F F B- +3 B- B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 317 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 14% -4  7% 1 - 14 0 - 7 D -9 F -17 F D C- A- +8 A B- C
 Sat, Jan 17 303 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 12% -6  13% 1 - 15 0 - 8 D- -12 B- +4 D- D+ A+ F -16 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 279 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 9% -1  23% 1 - 16 0 - 9 D -9 D- -8 F C A- C -1 B+ F D
 Fri, Jan 23 338 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 18% -22  0% 1 - 17 0 - 10 F -41 F -16 F F B+ F -23 F F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 231 Southeast Missouri St. L 74 - 78 14% -2  21% 1 - 18 0 - 11 D -11 C- -1 C- F A+ F -10 F C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Tennessee Martin L 44 - 84 13% -21  0% 1 - 19 0 - 12 F -46 F -27 F F D F -22 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 311 @Tennessee Tech L 72 - 97 13% -18  1% 1 - 20 0 - 13 F -31 B- +4 C C- D+ F -38 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Tennessee St. L 56 - 83 6% -21  0% 1 - 21 0 - 14 F -27 F -19 F F C F+ -9 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 317 Eastern Illinois W 79 - 70 30% +4  70% 2 - 21 1 - 14 C- -4 C- -1 C D A- C- -3 D D+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 303 Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 25% -7  7% 2 - 22 1 - 15 F -30 F -24 F F A- D -6 D+ D F
 Thu, Feb 19 338 Southern Indiana L 70 - 77 36% +2  82% 2 - 23 1 - 16 F -22 D -5 B- B- F F -17 D+ F F+
 Sat, Feb 21 279 Morehead St. L 59 - 81 21% -14  0% 2 - 24 1 - 17 F -32 F -18 D F+ D- F -16 D F F+
 Thu, Feb 26 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 47 - 67 8% -11  0% 2 - 25 1 - 18 F -23 F -23 F D- D C -0 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 28 278 Lindenwood L 69 - 78 21%
Totals 2 - 26 1 - 19 -18 F -11 C+ F D D- -7 D- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F F D D- F 36% 56% 35% D F D- D+ D- C- C F D+ D- F+ C- D+ D- 44% 16% 39% D- D- D D- D- D C- C C-
0.93 47% 33% 29% -8 -1 0.84 24% 1.0 .23 17% .30 65% .19 1.19 66% 40% 36% +5 +1 1.14 34% 1.2 .39 14% .31 73% .22
Nov
3		 Radford B+ F A+ C- D+ 37% 30% 33% F D A+ A+ A+ C A- F+ B- F F F A+ F 41% 17% 41% C- F F F F F F A F
1.21 47% 50% 33% -1 -1 0.98 47% 1.5 .72 18% .39 65% .25 1.29 82% 57% 24% +7 +1 1.17 43% 1.2 .53 11% .56 65% .36
Nov
7		 Iowa D+ C F C D+ 28% 37% 35% F D- D C+ C- C B+ A+ A C+ F B- F F 37% 11% 52% C- F+ A+ A+ A+ D- D+ C+ C-
0.92 58% 25% 33% -5 -3 0.86 21% 1.0 .21 22% .37 83% .31 1.22 82% 40% 42% +15 +1 1.35 15% 0.0 .00 11% .36 75% .27
Nov
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield F F C- A+ D 34% 34% 32% F D- C- F F F C- F F D C+ B- D D 46% 19% 35% F F+ F A C C C- D- D
0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20 1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30
Nov
14		 California Baptist D D A- F D+ 51% 28% 21% C D+ F B- F B A- C- B+ C- B- A+ A+ A 42% 8% 50% D- B+ F A C+ F D- F F
0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27 1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28
Nov
21		 Coastal Carolina F C+ F+ F F 17% 52% 31% F F C A+ B D+ B- C B- F C+ A+ F D- 27% 20% 54% D D- F C F+ C- F+ B- D
0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24 1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22
Nov
23		 North Dakota F F F A+ D 37% 17% 46% D D F A D- F+ C F F C- D+ C F F 42% 27% 31% A F+ A+ F B B C F F+
0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20 1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28
Dec
2		 Drake F F A F F 23% 42% 35% F F D- F F B A F B- F F F F F 31% 16% 53% D+ F D F F D+ A F B-
0.89 45% 45% 24% -6 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23 1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20
Dec
13		 North Dakota F F F F F 54% 18% 28% C+ F A+ D+ A- D A- A A+ A+ B A+ A+ 48% 0% 52% F A+ D F F A+ F D+ F
0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35 0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33
Dec
18		 Lindenwood D C+ F F D- 62% 15% 24% A- D F A+ C- B+ A F C- F D B- F F 52% 19% 29% D F F F F F+ F A+ F
1.00 62% 13% 23% -5 +2 0.96 21% 1.5 .32 15% .43 54% .23 1.21 63% 30% 40% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.3 .49 16% .53 56% .30
Dec
22		 SIU Edwardsville F D D D D 39% 33% 28% D D F A+ F+ D A- D- B- C+ B B+ B- B 27% 38% 36% A B+ C- F F A F F F
0.86 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.87 14% 1.5 .21 18% .38 68% .26 0.93 50% 29% 31% -7 -3 0.82 28% 2.1 .60 24% .43 78% .34
Jan
1		 Tennessee Martin D C+ F A+ B- 17% 36% 47% F C A- F F D+ F B- F C- D+ A+ F C+ 50% 38% 12% A- B- D A+ A F F C- F
0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16 1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37
Jan
3		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D F F 34% 27% 39% F+ F D- F F F A+ D+ A+ D- C- F B- D- 59% 11% 30% F F+ F+ F F C- D+ C- D+
0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39 1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
8		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 71% 4% 25% A+ F C- D+ D+ A- A+ C A+ F F+ B- D F 57% 17% 26% F F C F F C- F A+ D
0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41 1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25
Jan
10		 Tennessee Tech F F+ D- A- F+ 35% 40% 25% F F C F F F A+ F B B- C A+ A+ B+ 55% 18% 27% F B- C A B+ D+ C+ A+ A
0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25 0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14
Jan
13		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C D- D C- C+ A- B- A- C- A+ A+ A 45% 34% 20% C- A C+ B B- C F D+ F
0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28 0.86 55% 20% 11% -15 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33
Jan
17		 Arkansas Little Rock B- A- A- F D 39% 26% 35% D- D- A- F D+ A+ A+ D- B+ F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% D F B- F D+ F C- F F
1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25 1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25
Jan
22		 Morehead St. D- F C- B- F 33% 25% 42% F+ F F A+ C A- F F F C D+ A- A+ A- 48% 27% 25% D B+ F D- F D F+ A+ B+
1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10 1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18
Jan
23		 Southern Indiana F D- F F F 42% 33% 25% F F F C+ F B+ B+ D B- F D- F F F 42% 18% 40% D- F F D+ F+ C- B F C-
0.87 50% 24% 23% -12 -1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 12% .37 71% .26 1.31 60% 55% 42% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 16% .26 81% .21
Jan
29		 Southeast Missouri St. C- D+ F B- C- 35% 14% 51% C C- D- F F A+ A- F+ B- F F A+ A- F 51% 7% 42% F F A+ F C B- F D+ F
1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32 1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41
Jan
31		 Tennessee Martin F F C- D- F 37% 14% 49% B+ F F F F D C+ D C F F+ F C+ F 51% 8% 42% F F F F F F C F D+
0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24 1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee Tech B- F+ B- A+ B- 26% 32% 43% F C C- C C- D+ B- B+ B F D F F F 35% 14% 51% D- F F C- F F D C D+
1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25 1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24
Feb
7		 Tennessee St. F F C F F 35% 24% 41% F F D F F C B- C- B- F+ F C+ A F 45% 29% 26% D+ F C- A+ A+ F A F B
0.82 47% 42% 20% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29 1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18
Feb
10		 Eastern Illinois C- A- D- A B 25% 35% 39% F C F A- D A- A+ D A- C- C- F A+ D- 28% 37% 35% A- D B- F D+ D- B+ A+ A
1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31 0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13
Feb
12		 Arkansas Little Rock F C+ F F F 43% 13% 43% C+ F F F F A- C+ F F D B- A+ F C- 42% 27% 31% F+ D+ C- F+ D F B- A+ B+
0.82 65% 14% 22% -8 +1 0.89 13% 0.6 .08 14% .30 44% .13 1.09 56% 19% 44% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 54% .11
Feb
19		 Southern Indiana D D- B- A+ B 46% 21% 33% C B- F A+ B- F F F F F D+ F A+ C 57% 13% 30% F D+ F F F F+ F C- F
1.06 50% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.6 .37 20% .23 58% .13 1.17 56% 50% 14% -9 +2 0.89 52% 1.1 .58 14% .53 67% .35
Feb
21		 Morehead St. F C- B D D+ 37% 26% 37% D- D F A+ F+ D- D D- D- F F+ F A+ D- 34% 30% 36% B- D F F F F+ F A+ F
0.93 56% 45% 31% 0 -1 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .29 67% .19 1.28 67% 54% 25% +3 -1 1.05 50% 1.6 .79 14% .46 64% .29
Feb
26		 SIU Edwardsville F F F C F 30% 32% 38% D- F F A+ D- D A F F+ C F F A+ F+ 46% 26% 28% F+ F+ A A+ A+ C- C+ D C
0.70 29% 20% 33% -15 -2 0.68 18% 1.3 .22 18% .42 43% .18 1.00 70% 46% 21% +2 0 1.06 20% 0.7 .13 18% .25 71% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 79.3 20.8 100.0 11th
Total 79.3 20.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18 20.8% 20.8
1-19 79.3% 79.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.8%
Lose Out 79.3%