Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.5#353
Expected Predictive Rating-19.3#359
Pace62.4#345
Improvement-1.0#260

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#344
First Shot-5.8#337
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#210
Layup/Dunks-5.4#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#236
Freethrows-2.3#313
Improvement-2.3#346

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#348
First Shot-6.8#352
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#143
Layups/Dunks-0.7#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#321
Freethrows-2.1#299
Improvement+1.3#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 5.4% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 21.4% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 42.1% 29.0% 43.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 46 - 156 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 273 @Radford L 75-80 19%     0 - 1 -8.1 +9.5 -18.3
  Fri, Nov 7 21 @Iowa L 58-77 1%     0 - 2 -0.8 -0.2 -2.7
  Tue, Nov 11 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 18%     0 - 3 -18.9 -13.0 -6.6
  Fri, Nov 14 136 @California Baptist L 59-69 7%     0 - 4 -5.4 -2.8 -3.8
  Fri, Nov 21 253 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 33%     0 - 5 -28.0 -13.9 -13.1
  Sun, Nov 23 319 North Dakota L 69-78 46%     0 - 6 -20.5 -11.4 -8.6
  Tue, Dec 2 143 @Drake L 56-72 7%    
  Sat, Dec 13 319 @North Dakota L 66-73 25%    
  Thu, Dec 18 306 @Lindenwood L 66-74 25%    
  Mon, Dec 22 204 SIU Edwardsville L 62-69 27%    
  Thu, Jan 1 263 @Tennessee Martin L 62-72 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 211 @Southeast Missouri St. L 64-76 13%    
  Thu, Jan 8 224 Tennessee St. L 69-75 30%    
  Sat, Jan 10 322 Tennessee Tech L 67-68 47%    
  Tue, Jan 13 329 @Eastern Illinois L 62-68 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 248 @Arkansas Little Rock L 61-72 17%    
  Thu, Jan 22 310 @Morehead St. L 65-72 25%    
  Sat, Jan 24 314 @Southern Indiana L 68-75 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 263 Tennessee Martin L 65-69 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 322 @Tennessee Tech L 64-71 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 224 @Tennessee St. L 66-78 15%    
  Tue, Feb 10 329 Eastern Illinois L 65-66 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 248 Arkansas Little Rock L 64-69 34%    
  Thu, Feb 19 314 Southern Indiana L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 310 Morehead St. L 68-69 45%    
  Thu, Feb 26 204 @SIU Edwardsville L 59-72 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 306 Lindenwood L 69-71 45%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.4 0.2 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 4.7 1.1 0.1 14.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.6 7.2 5.1 1.4 0.1 20.3 10th
11th 0.7 3.3 6.3 8.1 7.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 31.3 11th
Total 0.7 3.3 6.6 9.7 12.4 14.1 13.2 11.5 9.2 7.1 4.9 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 80.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 70.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-6 38.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 12.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.1% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.1 0.4
13-7 0.9% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.1 0.8
12-8 2.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.1 2.0
11-9 3.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
10-10 4.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.8
9-11 7.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.0
8-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-13 11.5% 11.5
6-14 13.2% 13.2
5-15 14.1% 14.1
4-16 12.4% 12.4
3-17 9.7% 9.7
2-18 6.6% 6.6
1-19 3.3% 3.3
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%