Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 St. Bonaventure 62.7%   10   5 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 4 +10.8      +5.6 41 +5.2 50 63.1 320 +12.6 41 0.0 1
59 Saint Louis 31.2%   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +7.7      +4.3 66 +3.5 79 71.7 110 +10.9 57 0.0 1
72 Rhode Island 17.7%   5 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +7.0      +3.4 86 +3.5 76 66.8 242 +4.8 111 0.0 1
79 Richmond 14.7%   3 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 7 +6.7      +6.2 31 +0.5 152 69.9 165 +2.3 142 0.0 1
80 Virginia Commonwealth 20.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 7 +6.6      -4.1 287 +10.8 1 68.6 204 +3.8 125 0.0 1
84 Davidson 14.3%   4 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +6.3      +5.1 50 +1.1 130 63.0 322 +5.2 105 0.0 1
116 George Mason 4.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 +3.4      +2.3 106 +1.0 135 68.2 215 +1.1 161 0.0 1
119 Massachusetts 4.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +3.2      +6.9 27 -3.7 288 76.3 45 +3.8 126 0.0 1
120 Dayton 4.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 9 +3.1      +1.8 118 +1.3 124 63.7 310 -2.5 213 0.0 1
192 Duquesne 0.5%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 19 7 - 11 -1.3      -1.5 216 +0.1 170 70.0 163 -4.4 239 0.0 1
219 Saint Joseph's 0.4%   3 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 -2.6      +0.2 166 -2.9 268 77.2 34 -2.7 216 0.0 1
234 La Salle 0.3%   2 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 18 5 - 13 -3.6      -3.1 272 -0.6 190 70.2 156 -6.3 265 0.0 1
246 Fordham 0.1%   4 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 19 5 - 13 -4.5      -5.5 317 +1.0 134 68.4 208 -4.0 234 0.0 1
265 George Washington 0.0%   2 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 22 4 - 14 -5.6      -5.0 304 -0.6 193 70.6 147 -6.6 268 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
St. Bonaventure 2.6 44.2 20.1 11.3 8.3 5.7 3.7 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1
Saint Louis 4.2 17.4 16.3 14.3 13.1 10.1 7.5 8.0 5.5 3.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 4.1 16.3 16.9 15.9 13.7 10.5 8.5 6.0 4.7 2.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
Richmond 4.9 12.3 12.9 12.8 12.1 10.9 10.5 8.8 7.3 5.5 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 5.0 11.9 12.2 11.7 11.9 10.8 10.7 9.4 7.5 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.3
Davidson 4.6 13.5 14.8 14.3 12.2 11.1 10.0 7.9 6.4 4.2 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
George Mason 6.4 4.6 7.4 8.9 9.9 11.0 10.8 10.6 9.4 8.7 7.9 5.0 3.0 2.1 0.8
Massachusetts 6.6 3.1 6.9 7.2 9.9 10.1 12.2 11.1 11.2 9.4 8.3 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.5
Dayton 7.0 3.2 5.8 6.7 8.6 9.4 10.6 11.2 10.4 10.7 8.5 6.8 4.7 2.2 1.1
Duquesne 9.6 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.7 5.4 7.4 9.3 11.3 13.8 13.4 12.0 10.1 7.0
Saint Joseph's 10.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.7 5.0 7.0 9.4 14.2 15.0 17.2 14.0 10.2
La Salle 10.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.2 8.8 11.7 13.0 14.7 17.1 16.9
Fordham 10.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.5 4.1 5.6 9.4 12.4 12.9 16.0 17.0 16.1
George Washington 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.5 12.9 18.2 22.3 23.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
St. Bonaventure 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.2 3.2 5.3 7.7 12.2 13.8 17.5 16.2 12.2 6.8 2.0
Saint Louis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.9 8.6 11.4 13.6 15.3 13.4 12.1 8.4 3.7 1.5 0.4
Rhode Island 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 3.1 4.5 8.3 11.1 13.9 16.2 14.8 11.8 7.4 4.3 1.9 0.4
Richmond 11 - 7 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.0 10.9 14.0 13.9 13.7 12.2 8.9 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 3.1 5.2 8.1 11.8 14.3 13.3 13.3 11.3 7.8 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.2
Davidson 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.3 6.6 10.0 14.0 13.5 14.9 12.1 10.4 6.8 3.1 1.2 0.3
George Mason 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.0 6.8 9.1 11.7 13.2 14.5 12.7 9.4 7.5 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.6 7.0 9.7 14.1 13.6 16.1 12.6 8.6 6.5 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
Dayton 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 5.8 7.8 11.7 12.1 14.8 13.6 11.1 8.4 5.1 3.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 7 - 11 0.3 1.1 3.2 6.6 10.3 11.8 15.2 14.0 12.9 9.2 6.9 4.1 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 0.6 2.1 5.4 9.7 14.0 15.7 15.1 14.4 9.8 5.9 3.8 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 1.4 3.8 8.4 11.8 14.5 13.8 13.7 11.1 8.7 6.4 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 0.9 3.7 6.9 12.4 15.5 14.6 13.9 12.2 8.5 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1
George Washington 4 - 14 1.8 6.1 11.1 16.5 18.2 16.1 12.6 7.7 4.6 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Bonaventure 44.2% 30.7 10.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
Saint Louis 17.4% 10.3 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
Rhode Island 16.3% 9.4 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.1
Richmond 12.3% 7.0 3.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 11.9% 6.9 3.9 0.9 0.3
Davidson 13.5% 7.3 4.6 1.4 0.1 0.1
George Mason 4.6% 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Massachusetts 3.1% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Dayton 3.2% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
Duquesne 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.1% 0.1 0.0
La Salle 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Fordham 0.1% 0.1 0.0
George Washington 0.1% 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Bonaventure 62.7% 29.0% 33.7% 10   0.6 1.1 1.9 3.2 3.3 3.8 5.7 6.4 9.5 10.7 11.4 4.8 0.4 0.0 37.3 47.5%
Saint Louis 31.2% 14.7% 16.4% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 2.1 4.3 4.6 8.6 6.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 68.8 19.3%
Rhode Island 17.7% 10.9% 6.7% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.9 4.7 5.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 82.3 7.5%
Richmond 14.7% 10.4% 4.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 3.9 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 85.3 4.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 20.5% 11.8% 8.7% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.5 6.2 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 79.6 9.8%
Davidson 14.3% 10.1% 4.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.2 85.8 4.6%
George Mason 4.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 95.1 0.4%
Massachusetts 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 95.6 0.8%
Dayton 4.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 95.4 0.9%
Duquesne 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
La Salle 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
St. Bonaventure 62.7% 7.0% 59.0% 30.6% 11.5% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2%
Saint Louis 31.2% 6.6% 27.5% 11.3% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Rhode Island 17.7% 3.5% 16.0% 5.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 14.7% 1.7% 14.0% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 20.5% 3.4% 18.6% 7.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 14.3% 2.1% 13.2% 4.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 4.9% 0.4% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 4.4% 0.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 4.6% 0.6% 4.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 38.9 47.4 12.3 1.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.0 47.1 43.4 8.9 0.6
2nd Round 54.0% 0.7 46.0 42.7 10.5 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 20.0% 0.2 80.0 19.3 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2 0.0
Final Four 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.6
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3