Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
25 Saint Louis 95.7%   7   21 - 1 10 - 0 +16.3      +8.9 28 +7.5 23 76.6 23 +19.6 14 +20.4 1
52 Virginia Commonwealth 28.4%   17 - 6 8 - 2 +10.2      +6.8 50 +3.4 82 71.4 106 +10.8 55 +12.2 2
80 George Washington 4.0%   12 - 10 4 - 6 +6.8      +5.7 60 +1.1 134 73.5 63 +1.2 141 -0.8 10
86 George Mason 6.3%   19 - 3 8 - 2 +6.2      +3.5 86 +2.7 97 63.1 324 +10.6 58 +9.8 3
90 Dayton 4.1%   15 - 8 6 - 4 +5.9      +1.0 138 +4.9 59 68.6 182 +6.2 85 +3.9 7
106 Duquesne 1.7%   11 - 10 5 - 5 +3.9      +1.8 121 +2.1 110 74.5 45 +1.4 138 +4.1 6
111 Davidson 1.7%   12 - 9 5 - 5 +3.4      +1.6 123 +1.8 118 62.0 343 +4.7 94 +4.3 5
117 Rhode Island 1.1%   13 - 9 4 - 5 +2.9      -0.2 168 +3.1 87 65.6 265 +3.1 113 +2.6 8
128 Saint Joseph's 1.8%   13 - 8 7 - 3 +2.1      -1.9 221 +4.0 72 69.5 163 +4.2 99 +9.1 4
133 St. Bonaventure 0.4%   12 - 10 2 - 8 +1.6      +2.9 99 -1.3 219 66.3 245 +1.4 137 -6.1 14
137 Richmond 0.3%   12 - 10 3 - 7 +1.4      +1.8 119 -0.4 182 68.1 202 +0.5 154 -1.6 11
166 Fordham 0.2%   9 - 11 3 - 7 -0.5      -3.0 248 +2.5 101 62.7 332 -4.6 236 -0.6 9
225 La Salle 0.0%   6 - 16 3 - 7 -3.6      -3.0 251 -0.6 191 64.1 300 -3.9 225 -1.6 12
272 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   6 - 18 2 - 9 -6.2      -2.7 245 -3.6 282 66.6 237 -8.1 292 -5.5 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 3 111 Davidson 82 25 Saint Louis 91   
Tue, Feb 3 90 Dayton 72 133 St. Bonaventure 70   
Tue, Feb 3 166 Fordham 59 52 Virginia Commonwealth 63   
Tue, Feb 3 225 La Salle 61 272 Loyola Chicago 71   
Wed, Feb 4 106 Duquesne 71 86 George Mason 65   
Wed, Feb 4 80 George Washington 73 128 Saint Joseph's 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 6 90 Dayton 72 52 Virginia Commonwealth 79 76%   
Fri, Feb 6 111 Davidson 76 272 Loyola Chicago 63 88%   
Sat, Feb 7 106 Duquesne 83 80 George Washington 82 50%   
Sat, Feb 7 117 Rhode Island 74 137 Richmond 69 67%   
Sat, Feb 7 86 George Mason 72 128 Saint Joseph's 65 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 166 Fordham 69 133 St. Bonaventure 68 54%   
Sat, Feb 7 225 La Salle 63 25 Saint Louis 86 97%   
Tue, Feb 10 80 George Washington 79 117 Rhode Island 72 75%   
Tue, Feb 10 86 George Mason 73 137 Richmond 71 57%   
Tue, Feb 10 166 Fordham 63 128 Saint Joseph's 69 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.3 4.1 72.3 18.2 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 6.4 0.9 4.3 12.7 16.8 18.2 16.8 13.7 10.4 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 3.2 1.1 29.7 39.4 17.3 7.2 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
Dayton 5.8 0.0 3.3 8.6 16.4 17.9 16.8 15.0 12.2 6.8 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 6.8 0.3 3.0 10.5 15.3 16.9 16.9 15.3 13.1 5.8 2.2 0.6 0.1
Davidson 5.8 1.2 8.3 20.1 19.3 17.5 14.3 10.3 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 7.3 0.4 2.8 8.5 11.8 14.5 16.0 16.3 13.8 8.7 4.8 1.9 0.6 0.0
Saint Joseph's 4.0 0.1 12.5 29.5 28.4 15.2 8.1 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.3 8.6 17.3 21.6 25.5 16.3 2.9
Richmond 10.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.9 4.8 8.9 13.7 23.4 23.2 14.1 5.9 1.0
Fordham 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.6 4.8 8.5 15.0 25.2 21.5 13.4 6.5 1.1
La Salle 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.7 9.4 17.1 29.3 34.3 4.0
Loyola Chicago 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 7.3 20.0 70.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 17 - 1 28 - 2 0.1 1.0 5.8 19.0 39.5 34.7
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.1 15.1 26.8 30.2 16.8 3.5
George Washington 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.1 0.5 2.8 9.0 18.2 28.0 24.9 13.7 2.9
George Mason 12 - 6 23 - 7 0.3 2.9 10.2 20.5 27.0 22.6 12.1 3.9 0.5
Dayton 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.8 5.5 16.3 25.3 25.3 17.3 7.2 2.1 0.2
Duquesne 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.3 3.3 11.1 22.5 28.2 21.6 10.4 2.5 0.2
Davidson 10 - 8 17 - 12 0.1 1.0 4.8 13.9 24.6 26.7 19.9 7.7 1.5
Rhode Island 9 - 9 18 - 13 0.2 1.7 6.9 14.7 23.4 23.7 18.5 8.2 2.3 0.2
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 17 - 12 0.2 2.2 9.2 20.2 27.3 23.6 12.5 4.2 0.6
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 16 - 14 1.4 6.4 16.5 24.7 24.7 16.7 7.4 1.9 0.3
Richmond 6 - 12 15 - 15 1.7 7.4 18.3 25.3 24.1 14.7 6.6 1.8 0.1
Fordham 6 - 12 12 - 16 1.1 6.7 17.7 26.2 25.3 15.8 5.9 1.3 0.1
La Salle 5 - 13 8 - 22 13.0 29.3 30.3 18.0 7.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
Loyola Chicago 3 - 15 7 - 24 33.6 39.4 20.6 5.3 1.1 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 98.8% 94.9 3.7 0.2
Virginia Commonwealth 4.1% 1.0 2.9 0.2
George Washington
George Mason 1.1% 0.2 0.7 0.2
Dayton 0.0% 0.0
Duquesne
Davidson
Rhode Island
Saint Joseph's 0.1% 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure
Richmond
Fordham
La Salle
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 95.7% 61.2% 34.5% 7   0.3 0.9 4.1 10.3 12.3 14.6 15.1 13.7 13.3 8.8 2.4 4.3 88.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 28.4% 18.2% 10.2% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 3.9 21.4 1.4 71.6 12.5%
George Washington 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 96.0 0.0%
George Mason 6.3% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1 0.1 3.7 2.2 0.1 93.7 0.7%
Dayton 4.1% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 96.0 0.2%
Duquesne 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.3 0.0%
Davidson 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 98.4 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 98.2 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Richmond 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 56.3 41.9 1.8
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 60.8 38.4 0.8
2nd Round 70.4% 0.8 29.6 65.2 5.2
Sweet Sixteen 27.2% 0.3 72.8 26.8 0.4
Elite Eight 9.6% 0.1 90.5 9.5 0.0
Final Four 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Final Game 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Champion 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 95.7% 2.0% 95.0% 65.9% 25.6% 9.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 28.4% 8.3% 24.2% 6.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 6.3% 0.6% 5.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 4.1% 0.2% 3.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%