Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
41 Saint Louis 44.9%   11   8 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 6 14 - 4 +11.7      +5.7 60 +6.0 40 77.1 30 +11.7 51 0.0 1
48 Virginia Commonwealth 34.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 5 +10.9      +4.4 73 +6.5 31 72.3 114 +7.2 80 0.0 1
70 Dayton 16.1%   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +7.9      +3.1 97 +4.8 53 71.0 142 +10.4 61 0.0 1
73 George Mason 14.8%   8 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +7.7      +4.1 78 +3.6 73 63.1 332 +11.4 54 0.0 1
80 George Washington 10.9%   8 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.3      +7.0 44 +0.3 156 74.0 66 +3.6 118 0.0 1
103 Richmond 4.7%   7 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +4.3      +2.6 108 +1.7 118 71.2 139 +9.5 66 0.0 1
105 St. Bonaventure 4.4%   9 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +4.0      +1.8 125 +2.2 104 66.2 272 +14.4 32 0.0 1
118 Rhode Island 2.4%   7 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +3.1      +0.6 147 +2.5 94 69.5 187 +3.4 123 0.0 1
138 Davidson 1.5%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +1.3      +0.7 142 +0.6 146 65.3 291 +7.4 79 0.0 1
143 Duquesne 1.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 +1.1      +1.0 138 +0.1 161 77.8 24 -2.2 205 0.0 1
171 Saint Joseph's 0.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 -0.8      -2.0 225 +1.2 135 69.8 179 -0.2 171 0.0 1
218 Fordham 0.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 5 - 13 -3.5      -2.3 235 -1.2 206 62.3 350 -8.9 298 0.0 1
229 La Salle 0.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -3.9      -3.2 254 -0.7 189 65.6 285 -6.8 271 0.0 1
260 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 23 4 - 14 -5.5      -1.5 209 -4.0 310 64.6 307 -11.0 318 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 9 81 McNeese St. 66 118 Rhode Island 64   
Tue, Dec 9 364 Coppin St. 65 171 Saint Joseph's 87   
Wed, Dec 10 74 New Mexico 81 48 Virginia Commonwealth 78   
Wed, Dec 10 245 Delaware 70 80 George Washington 58   
Wed, Dec 10 178 Colgate 77 105 St. Bonaventure 85   
Wed, Dec 10 46 Boise St. 86 143 Duquesne 64   
Wed, Dec 10 361 Fairleigh Dickinson 54 218 Fordham 75   
Thu, Dec 11 171 Saint Joseph's 63 62 Syracuse 71   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 13 41 Saint Louis 80 94 San Francisco 71 81%   
Sat, Dec 13 15 Florida 88 80 George Washington 77 84%   
Sat, Dec 13 103 Richmond 78 125 Southern Illinois 74 68%   
Sat, Dec 13 143 Duquesne 73 96 Nevada 80 76%   
Sat, Dec 13 227 LIU Brooklyn 74 229 La Salle 71 62%   
Sat, Dec 13 182 Ohio 73 105 St. Bonaventure 78 71%   
Sat, Dec 13 73 George Mason 78 222 Old Dominion 64 90%   
Sat, Dec 13 218 Fordham 77 314 Manhattan 69 78%   
Sat, Dec 13 138 Davidson 74 326 Mercyhurst 60 90%   
Sat, Dec 13 70 Dayton 92 342 North Florida 69 97%   
Sun, Dec 14 349 Chicago St. 69 260 Loyola Chicago 79 83%   
Mon, Dec 15 350 Niagara 55 48 Virginia Commonwealth 82 98%   
Tue, Dec 16 70 Dayton 82 100 Florida St. 76 72%   
Tue, Dec 16 354 Canisius 57 118 Rhode Island 77 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 2.4 43.9 22.3 13.3 8.2 5.2 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.9 32.0 21.6 15.4 10.5 7.6 5.3 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 4.4 13.2 14.2 14.9 13.9 12.1 10.1 7.7 5.8 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
George Mason 4.4 14.8 15.6 14.5 13.0 11.2 9.2 7.4 5.5 3.6 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
George Washington 4.4 12.0 15.6 15.7 14.5 11.8 9.6 7.6 5.4 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Richmond 6.7 3.8 6.0 7.9 9.1 10.6 11.1 10.9 10.9 9.8 8.1 5.7 3.4 1.8 0.7
St. Bonaventure 6.3 3.7 6.5 8.8 10.9 11.7 12.0 11.7 10.3 8.6 6.4 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.4
Rhode Island 6.9 2.7 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 11.5 10.6 8.3 5.9 3.5 1.9 0.7
Davidson 7.7 1.7 3.0 4.8 6.8 8.6 9.9 11.9 11.8 11.4 10.4 8.5 6.0 3.6 1.7
Duquesne 9.0 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.1 7.0 8.7 10.4 12.2 13.4 13.1 10.8 6.8 3.6
Saint Joseph's 9.3 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.4 8.3 10.2 12.7 14.1 13.6 11.3 7.8 4.5
Fordham 11.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.8 5.6 8.3 11.0 15.1 18.1 18.5 14.6
La Salle 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 4.2 6.7 9.6 13.6 18.4 21.4 19.6
Loyola Chicago 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.8 6.6 10.8 16.9 25.4 31.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.4 11.9 15.6 18.2 17.4 13.0 6.8 1.8
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.8 7.0 10.6 14.1 16.7 16.7 13.8 8.9 4.0 1.1
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.4 9.4 13.0 15.5 15.9 13.7 10.3 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.2
George Mason 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.7 9.2 12.0 14.3 15.0 14.1 10.7 7.0 3.7 1.4 0.2
George Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.8 9.1 12.6 15.7 16.2 14.6 10.7 6.2 2.7 0.9 0.1
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.2 7.1 10.3 12.6 14.0 14.1 12.2 9.3 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.7 8.9 11.9 14.5 15.3 13.9 10.7 7.3 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 7.5 11.0 13.6 14.9 14.5 12.4 8.9 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.7 10.1 13.0 14.5 14.2 12.7 9.4 6.4 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.3 8.2 11.2 13.6 14.3 14.1 11.5 8.3 5.6 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.9 8.6 12.1 14.9 15.6 13.4 11.1 7.6 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 0.8 3.5 8.0 12.7 16.3 16.1 14.7 11.4 7.6 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 1.5 5.2 10.4 14.6 17.1 16.0 13.4 9.3 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 2.8 9.0 15.6 19.1 18.1 14.4 9.8 5.8 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 43.9% 29.9 10.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 32.0% 20.5 8.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Dayton 13.2% 7.0 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 14.8% 8.1 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
George Washington 12.0% 5.9 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Richmond 3.8% 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 3.7% 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 2.7% 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Davidson 1.7% 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 44.9% 30.0% 14.9% 11   0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 5.0 9.6 18.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 55.1 21.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.4% 24.7% 9.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 3.5 7.1 16.3 2.5 0.1 0.0 65.6 12.8%
Dayton 16.1% 11.4% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 8.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 83.9 5.3%
George Mason 14.8% 11.2% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 8.3 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.2 4.0%
George Washington 10.9% 9.8% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 5.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 89.1 1.2%
Richmond 4.7% 3.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.3 0.8%
St. Bonaventure 4.4% 3.5% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.6 0.9%
Rhode Island 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.6 0.1%
Davidson 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 44.9% 7.2% 41.8% 19.2% 5.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.4% 5.1% 32.1% 13.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 16.1% 2.9% 14.5% 4.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 14.8% 2.4% 13.6% 4.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 10.9% 0.7% 10.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 4.7% 0.6% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 4.4% 0.7% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.4% 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 67.1 30.3 2.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 74.9 23.9 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 43.3% 0.5 56.8 39.5 3.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.3 0.3
Elite Eight 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0 0.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1