Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
68 Dayton 26.6%   13   15 - 8 7 - 3 20 - 11 12 - 6 +8.2      +2.8 95 +5.4 44 61.5 336 +4.7 103 +5.6 3
74 Virginia Commonwealth 22.3%   17 - 6 8 - 2 22 - 9 13 - 5 +7.1      +0.1 167 +7.0 23 71.2 100 +7.5 72 +10.1 1
79 Saint Louis 19.1%   14 - 7 7 - 2 20 - 10 13 - 5 +6.6      +5.0 56 +1.7 123 71.4 96 +7.4 75 +8.5 2
122 George Mason 5.2%   13 - 10 5 - 5 17 - 14 9 - 9 +2.7      +0.6 154 +2.1 112 66.3 236 +1.7 138 +0.8 9
123 Davidson 5.3%   9 - 12 3 - 7 13 - 16 7 - 11 +2.6      +1.4 131 +1.2 131 64.4 283 -0.1 169 -1.3 13
125 Richmond 4.6%   11 - 12 4 - 6 15 - 16 8 - 10 +2.4      -0.1 179 +2.5 103 64.8 275 +0.2 163 -0.1 10
126 Duquesne 4.6%   14 - 8 4 - 5 19 - 12 9 - 9 +2.3      +2.7 97 -0.4 189 67.9 191 +3.4 121 +1.1 8
132 Fordham 4.2%   18 - 4 6 - 3 22 - 9 10 - 8 +2.0      -1.8 235 +3.7 75 72.7 69 +7.8 68 +5.3 4
143 Massachusetts 3.6%   13 - 9 4 - 6 17 - 13 8 - 10 +1.6      0.0 174 +1.6 126 75.6 31 +3.2 124 -0.8 11
147 St. Bonaventure 3.2%   12 - 11 6 - 4 16 - 15 10 - 8 +1.1      -1.1 209 +2.2 109 64.9 273 +0.6 155 +4.5 5
162 Saint Joseph's 2.4%   11 - 11 5 - 5 15 - 15 9 - 9 +0.3      -0.4 188 +0.7 151 71.7 93 -0.4 174 +1.4 7
191 George Washington 1.3%   10 - 11 5 - 4 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1.2      +2.5 106 -3.6 284 71.9 89 -1.6 200 +3.6 6
198 Rhode Island 1.2%   8 - 14 4 - 6 11 - 19 7 - 11 -1.5      -2.6 256 +1.1 139 68.2 179 -3.2 232 -0.9 12
220 Loyola Chicago 0.8%   7 - 14 1 - 8 10 - 20 4 - 14 -2.5      -1.0 208 -1.5 228 64.3 288 -4.3 249 -8.4 15
230 La Salle 0.6%   9 - 13 3 - 6 12 - 19 6 - 12 -3.6      -2.7 260 -0.9 205 68.9 162 -3.0 227 -3.1 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 2.4 28.8 32.1 21.6 9.7 4.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 1.8 55.7 25.3 11.3 4.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 2.2 39.2 28.2 18.8 8.1 3.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Mason 6.5 0.3 3.0 8.0 12.7 15.4 14.6 13.1 10.3 8.4 5.9 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0
Davidson 10.1 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.6 5.6 7.4 8.6 10.8 11.8 13.4 13.9 13.3 7.7 1.4
Richmond 8.4 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.4 8.5 10.2 11.9 11.7 12.2 11.4 9.9 7.6 4.9 2.3 0.5
Duquesne 7.2 0.3 2.4 6.8 11.1 12.9 12.1 12.0 9.7 9.4 7.5 6.2 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.2
Fordham 4.7 4.4 11.1 18.7 20.2 14.7 10.4 7.3 4.9 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 8.7 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.0 7.5 9.3 11.1 11.3 12.2 11.2 10.3 8.6 6.3 3.5 0.8
St. Bonaventure 5.6 1.3 5.9 13.0 16.9 17.0 13.8 10.6 7.5 6.0 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7.5 0.2 1.4 4.4 8.3 11.8 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.1 9.0 7.2 5.4 2.9 1.1 0.1
George Washington 7.7 0.5 1.8 5.2 8.6 10.8 11.4 11.7 10.6 10.6 9.0 7.9 6.3 3.8 1.6 0.1
Rhode Island 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 4.9 6.7 9.0 10.7 13.8 15.9 17.7 11.7 2.5
Loyola Chicago 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.6 4.6 9.7 20.0 60.3
La Salle 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.6 8.4 12.1 19.7 29.5 13.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 2.0 7.4 17.7 26.9 26.5 15.5 3.8
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.5 2.8 8.9 18.5 26.1 25.1 14.2 3.8
Saint Louis 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.9 14.8 23.5 25.8 18.6 8.1 1.5
George Mason 9 - 9 0.2 1.8 7.7 18.0 27.2 24.9 14.6 4.9 0.7
Davidson 7 - 11 0.3 2.1 7.8 17.7 25.9 24.6 15.1 5.6 0.9
Richmond 8 - 10 0.3 2.4 8.3 18.3 26.2 24.3 14.5 5.0 0.8
Duquesne 9 - 9 0.2 1.2 4.8 11.7 20.3 24.6 20.8 11.9 4.1 0.5
Fordham 10 - 8 0.3 2.3 7.5 16.6 24.2 23.9 15.9 7.1 1.9 0.3
Massachusetts 8 - 10 0.4 3.0 9.9 19.9 26.0 22.7 12.9 4.5 0.7
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.5 3.8 12.7 23.1 27.0 20.2 9.6 2.7 0.4
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 0.7 4.8 13.7 23.9 26.1 19.1 9.0 2.5 0.3
George Washington 9 - 9 1.0 6.0 14.8 23.4 23.9 17.5 9.2 3.3 0.8 0.1
Rhode Island 7 - 11 2.9 12.5 23.3 27.1 20.2 10.0 3.2 0.6 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 2.3 10.2 20.8 25.9 21.5 12.7 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 3.9 13.8 24.9 25.8 18.3 9.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 28.8% 13.8 11.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 55.7% 36.3 15.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 39.2% 22.9 12.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
George Mason 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson
Richmond 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 4.4% 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 1.3% 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0
Loyola Chicago
La Salle 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 26.6% 26.3% 0.3% 13   0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9 11.1 8.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 73.4 0.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 22.3% 19.7% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 9.2 9.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 77.7 3.3%
Saint Louis 19.1% 17.0% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 7.1 8.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 80.9 2.5%
George Mason 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 94.8 0.0%
Davidson 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.1 94.7 0.0%
Richmond 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.7 95.4 0.0%
Duquesne 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 95.4 0.0%
Fordham 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 95.9 0.0%
Massachusetts 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.2 96.4 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.7 96.8 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 97.6 0.0%
George Washington 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 98.7 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
La Salle 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Dayton 26.6% 0.3% 26.5% 7.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 22.3% 2.0% 21.1% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 19.1% 1.6% 18.2% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 5.2% 0.1% 5.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 5.3% 2.1% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 4.6% 1.0% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 4.2% 0.0% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.2% 0.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 2.4% 0.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.9 5.0 0.0
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 95.1 2.7 0.0
2nd Round 20.6% 0.2 79.4 20.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0