Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
36 Saint Louis 58.8%   11   11 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 5 14 - 4 +13.2      +7.0 44 +6.2 34 78.2 20 +13.1 42 0.0 1
45 Virginia Commonwealth 35.8%   8 - 4 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 5 +11.3      +5.5 62 +5.8 36 71.5 124 +8.0 74 0.0 1
68 Dayton 13.3%   9 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +8.0      +2.9 103 +5.1 49 69.4 184 +7.4 83 0.0 1
77 George Washington 9.8%   8 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +7.3      +6.5 49 +0.7 139 73.8 65 +3.7 118 0.0 1
89 George Mason 8.8%   10 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +6.3      +3.4 96 +2.9 92 63.8 323 +11.3 53 0.0 1
103 Richmond 4.1%   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +4.5      +1.9 120 +2.6 100 71.1 137 +6.6 88 0.0 1
114 St. Bonaventure 2.6%   10 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +3.3      +2.0 119 +1.3 125 66.1 274 +9.3 65 0.0 1
115 Rhode Island 2.5%   8 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +3.3      0.0 164 +3.3 80 69.0 192 +3.9 112 0.0 1
129 Davidson 1.5%   7 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.9      +0.8 143 +1.1 131 64.6 309 +4.8 101 0.0 1
139 Duquesne 1.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 +1.4      +1.2 134 +0.2 149 77.4 26 -2.6 208 0.0 1
173 Saint Joseph's 0.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 -0.8      -2.8 243 +1.9 111 69.5 179 +0.1 162 0.0 1
197 Fordham 0.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 6 - 12 -2.3      -2.1 226 -0.2 171 62.1 350 -7.9 290 0.0 1
233 La Salle 0.0%   3 - 9 0 - 0 7 - 23 4 - 14 -4.4      -3.7 269 -0.8 195 65.3 291 -7.8 287 0.0 1
274 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   4 - 9 0 - 0 8 - 23 4 - 14 -6.0      -0.7 183 -5.3 334 64.8 303 -10.4 320 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 18 129 Davidson 63 147 Temple 68   
Thu, Dec 18 253 American 83 45 Virginia Commonwealth 105   
Thu, Dec 18 348 Delaware St. 51 173 Saint Joseph's 67   
Fri, Dec 19 107 High Point 84 233 La Salle 72   
Sat, Dec 20 68 Dayton 61 101 Liberty 64   
Sat, Dec 20 274 Loyola Chicago 80 86 Santa Clara 78   
Sat, Dec 20 313 Le Moyne 81 114 St. Bonaventure 92   
Sat, Dec 20 103 Richmond 80 354 The Citadel 56   
Sun, Dec 21 89 George Mason 86 329 Loyola Maryland 79   
Sun, Dec 21 233 La Salle 50 1 Michigan 102   
Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire 79 36 Saint Louis 93   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 22 129 Davidson 59 17 Kansas 77 94%   
Mon, Dec 22 205 Northeastern 67 115 Rhode Island 77 81%   
Mon, Dec 22 250 Coastal Carolina 67 173 Saint Joseph's 74 75%   
Mon, Dec 22 197 Fordham 69 338 New Haven 58 86%   
Mon, Dec 22 340 Canisius 63 139 Duquesne 79 92%   
Mon, Dec 22 347 Rider 55 45 Virginia Commonwealth 81 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.9 55.9 21.9 10.6 5.7 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.8 30.5 24.7 16.4 10.8 6.8 4.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 4.4 11.1 14.9 16.2 15.2 12.9 10.2 7.5 5.0 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
George Washington 4.3 11.1 16.7 17.4 14.3 11.9 9.6 7.1 5.0 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
George Mason 5.2 7.7 11.7 13.4 12.8 11.9 10.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 4.0 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
Richmond 6.6 2.9 6.2 8.4 10.1 11.2 11.3 11.2 10.6 9.6 7.6 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.5
St. Bonaventure 6.8 2.2 5.1 7.3 9.7 11.2 12.0 11.9 11.0 9.8 8.1 5.9 3.7 1.7 0.5
Rhode Island 6.8 2.3 5.2 7.3 9.9 11.0 12.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 7.7 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.6
Davidson 7.4 1.6 3.5 5.6 7.9 9.6 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.2 2.7 1.1
Duquesne 8.8 0.6 1.7 2.9 4.4 5.8 7.1 8.7 10.8 12.0 13.2 13.1 10.6 6.2 2.9
Saint Joseph's 9.2 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.5 4.5 6.6 8.2 10.7 12.5 14.1 13.8 11.4 7.5 4.0
Fordham 10.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.0 7.0 9.4 12.4 16.0 17.7 14.7 9.5
La Salle 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.4 8.1 12.3 18.4 25.3 22.6
Loyola Chicago 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 5.0 9.2 16.0 27.8 36.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.5 8.6 13.5 18.5 20.4 17.8 10.1 3.2
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 6.2 10.2 14.4 16.9 17.6 14.5 8.9 4.1 1.0
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.6 9.7 13.4 16.5 16.6 14.1 10.1 5.6 2.4 0.7 0.1
George Washington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.2 9.1 13.2 15.2 16.3 14.9 10.8 6.6 2.8 0.8 0.1
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.8 8.5 12.2 14.0 14.8 13.9 10.9 7.6 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.6 9.9 12.9 15.0 14.6 12.7 9.6 6.1 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.0 7.3 10.6 13.5 15.5 14.9 12.3 8.8 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.9 7.0 10.5 14.1 15.1 14.7 12.8 9.0 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.8 9.1 12.3 15.0 15.0 13.2 10.5 7.1 4.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 7.3 10.8 13.9 14.8 14.5 11.5 9.0 5.9 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.6 8.1 12.0 14.8 16.1 14.1 11.3 7.7 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.3 2.1 5.4 9.9 13.6 16.3 15.6 13.4 10.0 6.6 3.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 4 - 14 1.7 6.3 12.2 17.1 18.3 15.7 11.7 8.1 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 3.1 10.3 17.7 21.0 18.5 13.7 8.1 4.2 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 55.9% 40.5 12.3 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 30.5% 19.2 8.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Dayton 11.1% 5.6 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Washington 11.1% 5.3 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Mason 7.7% 3.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Richmond 2.9% 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 2.2% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 2.3% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.0% 0.0
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 58.8% 37.4% 21.4% 11   0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.4 4.6 7.8 13.3 21.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 41.2 34.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 35.8% 24.7% 11.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.6 7.5 17.7 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 64.2 14.7%
Dayton 13.3% 10.5% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 7.8 2.5 0.1 0.0 86.7 3.1%
George Washington 9.8% 8.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 5.3 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 90.2 0.9%
George Mason 8.8% 6.9% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 5.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 91.2 2.0%
Richmond 4.1% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 95.9 0.4%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4 0.3%
Rhode Island 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5 0.1%
Davidson 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 58.8% 10.0% 54.5% 27.5% 8.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 35.8% 6.0% 33.0% 14.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 13.3% 2.0% 12.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 9.8% 0.6% 9.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 8.8% 1.5% 7.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 4.1% 0.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.5% 0.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 63.9 33.5 2.5 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 72.2 26.6 1.1 0.0
2nd Round 46.7% 0.5 53.3 42.3 4.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.3 0.3
Elite Eight 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4 0.0
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1