Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 Dayton 77.3%   9   21 - 5 11 - 3 24 - 6 14 - 4 +11.1      +7.4 26 +3.7 71 59.6 354 +13.6 20 +10.7 3
84 Richmond 10.6%   20 - 7 12 - 2 23 - 8 15 - 3 +6.7      +0.9 152 +5.7 29 66.9 234 +8.9 68 +13.5 1
85 Virginia Commonwealth 10.4%   17 - 9 9 - 4 20 - 11 12 - 6 +6.6      +1.2 142 +5.4 39 64.9 286 +6.2 94 +8.3 4
87 St. Bonaventure 9.7%   17 - 10 8 - 7 19 - 11 10 - 8 +6.5      +3.9 86 +2.5 103 64.7 291 +5.3 106 +4.7 5
95 Loyola Chicago 8.7%   19 - 7 12 - 2 21 - 9 14 - 4 +5.9      +0.4 172 +5.5 33 69.6 149 +7.6 80 +12.4 2
97 Massachusetts 8.1%   17 - 10 8 - 7 19 - 11 10 - 8 +5.8      +4.0 84 +1.8 125 71.9 87 +3.2 124 +3.3 6
106 George Mason 6.0%   17 - 9 7 - 7 19 - 11 9 - 9 +4.6      +3.0 99 +1.6 129 63.1 325 +5.7 101 +3.3 7
111 Davidson 5.4%   13 - 12 5 - 9 15 - 14 7 - 11 +4.1      +0.2 175 +3.9 67 63.9 301 +2.5 131 -0.8 12
113 Duquesne 5.3%   15 - 11 6 - 8 17 - 13 8 - 10 +4.0      +0.2 177 +3.8 68 68.1 195 +4.5 110 +2.3 9
119 Saint Joseph's 4.5%   17 - 10 7 - 7 19 - 12 9 - 9 +3.3      +2.6 106 +0.7 151 70.8 113 +4.0 113 +2.5 8
185 Rhode Island 1.1%   10 - 15 5 - 8 12 - 18 7 - 11 -1.4      +1.5 134 -2.9 259 70.4 127 -1.1 179 +0.6 10
188 Fordham 1.1%   11 - 16 5 - 9 12 - 19 6 - 12 -1.5      -2.2 233 +0.7 152 72.9 63 -2.7 214 0.0 11
192 Saint Louis 1.0%   9 - 17 3 - 11 10 - 20 4 - 14 -1.9      +3.0 101 -4.8 325 72.3 73 -1.4 188 -4.3 14
207 La Salle 0.7%   12 - 14 4 - 10 14 - 16 6 - 12 -2.8      -0.6 193 -2.2 238 68.8 171 -1.0 178 -1.8 13
225 George Washington 0.6%   13 - 13 3 - 11 14 - 16 4 - 14 -3.3      +0.7 160 -4.0 295 75.8 28 -0.9 176 -4.7 15






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 1.9 39.4 30.8 25.8 4.0
Richmond 1.5 62.8 26.3 9.6 1.3
Virginia Commonwealth 3.7 2.7 5.9 16.3 69.3 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
St. Bonaventure 5.3 0.0 16.0 52.8 19.6 8.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 1.9 42.5 29.2 27.0 1.2
Massachusetts 5.6 0.0 11.4 42.6 27.1 13.8 4.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
George Mason 6.5 0.0 5.8 24.4 22.4 22.7 13.1 8.0 2.9 0.6 0.0
Davidson 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 7.1 12.3 27.2 29.8 15.4 5.0 0.3 0.0
Duquesne 8.1 0.8 4.2 9.0 17.3 24.5 32.7 8.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7.2 4.0 10.3 15.9 23.9 29.8 11.2 3.5 1.3 0.1
Rhode Island 10.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.5 8.7 17.1 30.4 18.8 10.9 6.2 0.8 0.0
Fordham 10.8 0.1 0.6 1.4 4.4 8.7 23.7 26.6 24.5 9.4 0.6 0.0
Saint Louis 14.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.0 13.5 45.9 32.8
La Salle 12.1 0.1 0.5 3.3 9.3 17.3 25.2 32.6 9.8 2.0
George Washington 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 7.0 17.6 42.9 29.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 14 - 4 0.4 4.9 21.4 42.1 31.3
Richmond 15 - 3 2.1 13.4 32.5 36.0 16.0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.8 7.5 25.6 37.9 23.3 4.9
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 1.7 14.9 42.6 40.8
Loyola Chicago 14 - 4 3.2 23.7 39.2 26.7 7.2
Massachusetts 10 - 8 2.9 22.0 47.2 27.9
George Mason 9 - 9 3.3 15.8 32.9 33.6 14.4
Davidson 7 - 11 10.9 32.6 36.1 17.6 2.8
Duquesne 8 - 10 1.6 14.9 42.3 32.8 8.4
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 5.8 27.6 40.6 21.9 4.1
Rhode Island 7 - 11 7.6 25.9 34.7 23.0 7.8 0.9
Fordham 6 - 12 16.7 40.4 31.7 10.0 1.2
Saint Louis 4 - 14 32.9 41.5 20.6 4.6 0.4
La Salle 6 - 12 12.5 37.8 37.3 11.3 1.1
George Washington 4 - 14 29.3 40.7 23.2 6.2 0.7




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 39.4% 13.9 17.6 7.4 0.5
Richmond 62.8% 29.6 25.0 7.6 0.5
Virginia Commonwealth 2.7% 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5
St. Bonaventure
Loyola Chicago 42.5% 17.9 16.6 7.5 0.5
Massachusetts
George Mason
Davidson
Duquesne
Saint Joseph's
Rhode Island
Fordham
Saint Louis
La Salle
George Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 77.3% 27.4% 49.9% 9   0.1 1.3 5.8 10.2 9.5 9.8 14.2 18.4 8.0 0.1 22.7 68.7%
Richmond 10.6% 10.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.2 4.8 4.8 0.7 0.0 89.4 0.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 10.4% 10.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 3.0 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 89.6 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 6.1 1.9 0.1 90.3 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 8.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 91.4 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.3 3.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 91.9 0.0%
George Mason 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.6 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 94.0 0.0%
Davidson 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 0.7 94.6 0.0%
Duquesne 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 94.7 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.3 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 95.5 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 98.9 0.0%
Fordham 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.3 0.0%
George Washington 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Dayton 77.3% 9.8% 72.4% 36.7% 10.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Richmond 10.6% 0.4% 10.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 10.4% 0.1% 10.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 9.7% 0.0% 9.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 8.7% 0.0% 8.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.1% 0.0% 8.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 5.4% 0.2% 5.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 4.5% 0.0% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 49.8 50.0 0.2
1st Round 99.5% 1.4 0.5 55.2 44.3 0.1
2nd Round 46.1% 0.5 53.9 42.0 4.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.1 0.3
Elite Eight 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1