Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
46 Dayton 43.9%   11   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +10.6      +8.0 22 +2.6 97 65.4 281 +14.1 37 0.0 1
55 Virginia Commonwealth 28.3%   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +9.6      +3.0 94 +6.6 27 66.2 261 +6.2 90 0.0 1
82 George Mason 10.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.5      +1.4 137 +5.2 49 64.9 292 +1.1 154 0.0 1
86 Loyola Chicago 12.3%   6 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 11 - 7 +6.3      +1.9 125 +4.3 66 70.5 144 +11.8 47 0.0 1
88 St. Bonaventure 10.4%   7 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +6.1      +2.0 120 +4.1 74 64.5 302 +10.9 54 0.0 1
91 Rhode Island 10.0%   7 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 11 - 7 +5.9      +4.0 74 +1.9 112 76.1 35 +10.7 56 0.0 1
101 Saint Joseph's 7.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 8 +4.9      +1.5 134 +3.4 86 71.2 121 +4.2 106 0.0 1
134 Davidson 1.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +1.4      +1.9 126 -0.5 185 68.3 202 +11.1 53 0.0 1
137 Saint Louis 1.6%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +1.4      +3.4 84 -2.0 239 72.0 93 +1.9 142 0.0 1
143 La Salle 1.4%   6 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 11 +1.0      -0.2 180 +1.2 132 76.8 26 +2.2 133 0.0 1
151 George Washington 1.1%   7 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +0.6      +0.8 149 -0.2 178 73.7 65 +1.9 140 0.0 1
171 Massachusetts 0.6%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -0.7      -0.4 185 -0.3 180 70.9 129 -7.1 283 0.0 1
186 Richmond 0.5%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -1.2      -2.3 233 +1.1 136 66.9 240 -6.8 278 0.0 1
201 Fordham 0.3%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 -1.9      -2.1 226 +0.2 161 71.3 115 -3.5 226 0.0 1
208 Duquesne 0.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 13 -2.3      -3.4 266 +1.1 137 65.6 277 -9.4 317 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 2.9 37.3 20.5 13.6 9.3 6.5 4.6 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 3.4 27.4 19.3 14.7 11.4 8.7 6.3 4.5 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
George Mason 4.9 12.4 14.0 13.5 12.1 11.0 9.6 7.7 6.0 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.2
Loyola Chicago 5.5 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.9 5.7 4.6 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6
St. Bonaventure 5.1 11.1 12.0 12.7 12.5 11.5 10.3 8.4 6.5 5.1 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4
Rhode Island 5.2 11.4 12.6 12.2 11.8 11.1 9.1 8.3 6.5 5.3 3.9 2.9 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.4
Saint Joseph's 5.3 12.1 12.3 12.0 11.5 10.8 9.0 8.2 6.5 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.5
Davidson 8.7 1.6 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.6 7.9 9.4 9.5 10.3 9.5 9.3 8.1 6.9 5.2 3.7
Saint Louis 9.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.9 4.7 6.0 7.0 8.3 9.6 10.1 10.1 10.5 9.3 8.4 6.5
La Salle 8.6 1.7 3.0 4.1 5.5 6.8 8.0 9.1 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.0 7.7 6.9 5.2 3.3
George Washington 9.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.1 5.6 6.8 8.4 9.1 10.6 9.8 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.2 5.2
Massachusetts 10.5 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.6 6.0 7.2 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.5 11.7 10.9 9.6
Richmond 10.9 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.9 5.2 6.5 8.3 9.4 10.5 11.6 12.0 13.1 12.1
Fordham 11.2 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.5 4.6 6.0 8.0 9.0 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.8 14.0
Duquesne 11.8 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.6 6.2 7.8 9.7 12.2 13.7 16.6 19.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.9 9.2 12.4 16.1 16.8 14.7 10.9 5.4 1.5
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 5.2 8.5 11.6 14.7 15.9 15.3 11.9 7.4 3.3 0.8
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.8 10.1 12.7 14.2 14.6 13.1 9.6 6.3 3.0 1.0 0.2
Loyola Chicago 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.8 8.5 11.0 12.6 13.6 12.9 11.1 7.9 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.2
St. Bonaventure 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.9 13.3 14.7 14.6 11.9 8.6 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2
Rhode Island 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.2 7.8 10.5 12.8 14.2 13.5 11.8 9.0 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.2
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.4 7.9 10.7 12.4 13.6 13.3 11.1 8.7 5.6 3.0 1.4 0.4
Davidson 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.3 8.6 11.4 13.4 13.8 13.6 10.9 8.0 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.1 7.8 11.2 13.3 14.0 13.0 10.9 8.4 5.9 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
La Salle 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.1 11.4 13.0 14.3 13.2 11.2 8.3 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Washington 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.8 7.0 10.2 12.6 14.3 13.8 12.4 9.6 6.5 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.7 6.6 10.7 13.2 14.9 14.3 12.2 9.3 6.0 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Richmond 6 - 12 0.4 1.8 4.5 8.5 11.8 13.9 14.6 13.7 11.3 8.2 5.3 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.5 2.0 5.1 9.3 12.8 14.8 15.4 13.2 10.7 7.3 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 5 - 13 0.8 3.3 7.5 11.8 15.0 15.6 14.4 11.6 8.3 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 37.3% 24.9 9.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 27.4% 17.0 7.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 12.4% 6.5 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Chicago 11.4% 6.4 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 11.1% 6.0 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 11.4% 6.2 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 12.1% 6.6 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Davidson 1.6% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Richmond 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 43.9% 27.8% 16.1% 11   0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.7 5.2 7.6 13.8 2.9 0.0 56.1 22.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 28.3% 21.9% 6.5% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.7 4.3 11.2 4.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 71.7 8.3%
George Mason 10.4% 9.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 3.8 4.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.6 0.7%
Loyola Chicago 12.3% 9.3% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 5.5 3.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 87.7 3.4%
St. Bonaventure 10.4% 8.7% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 4.3 4.2 0.3 0.0 89.6 1.8%
Rhode Island 10.0% 8.3% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 4.3 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 90.0 1.8%
Saint Joseph's 7.5% 6.9% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 92.5 0.6%
Davidson 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.1 0.1%
Saint Louis 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4 0.0%
La Salle 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6 0.0%
George Washington 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.0%
Richmond 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Fordham 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Duquesne 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 43.9% 5.2% 41.4% 20.0% 7.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 28.3% 2.3% 27.3% 12.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
George Mason 10.4% 0.5% 10.2% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 12.3% 1.8% 11.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 10.4% 1.0% 9.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 10.0% 1.2% 9.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 7.5% 0.3% 7.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 71.5 26.8 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.2 0.1 76.6 22.4 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 43.6% 0.5 56.5 39.7 3.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 14.7% 0.2 85.3 14.4 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7 0.0
Final Four 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2