George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.7 #94
Expected Predictive Rating +12.8 #40
Pace 63.2 #330
Improvement -4.4 #355

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #86 B- A C- B C
Defense #109 C+ B A- C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #182 1.29 #57 +2.4 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #154 0.67 #287 -0.5 #204
Three Pointers 40% #200 1.06 #124 +0.5 #159
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #116 +2.4 #116
Freethrows 22.7 #8 72% #211 16.3 #16
Second Chance 31.5% #151 0.96 #279 0.30 #216
Turnovers 14.8% #68
Total Offense +3.7 #86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #319 1.19 #214 +3.1 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #60 0.63 #43 -0.3 #212
Three Pointers 43% #137 1.02 #196 -0.9 #212
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +1.8 #121
Freethrows 14.2 #40 76% #301 10.7 #301
Second Chance 26.7% #59 0.90 #35 0.24 #28
Turnovers 16.3% #200
Total Defense +2.0 #109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #210 -2.1% #37
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #109 -1.6% #147
Possession Length 18.4 #294 17.5 #234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #233 0.14 #57
Improvement -0.6 #222 -3.8 #351

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.8% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.5% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 90.0% 72.3%
Conference Champion 6.2% 8.0% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round6.0% 7.0% 4.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 39 - 312 - 9
Quad 411 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 221 Wofford W 70-46 87%     8.5   1 - 0 +17.6 -1.7 +21.1
  Fri, Nov 7 150 Winthrop W 96-90 79%     0.1   2 - 0 +3.3 +10.1 -7.4
  Sat, Nov 15 339 New Hampshire W 61-44 96%     7.0   3 - 0 +2.6 -12.2 +15.8
  Tue, Nov 18 316 Jacksonville W 79-57 94%     12.1   4 - 0 +10.0 +6.6 +5.0
  Mon, Nov 24 173 Ohio W 92-69 74%     20.0   5 - 0 +22.0 +22.3 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 111 Florida Atlantic W 74-65 56%     10.9   6 - 0 +13.1 +15.8 -1.1
  Sat, Nov 29 193 James Madison W 82-66 85%     1.1   7 - 0 +10.8 +8.6 +3.1
  Tue, Dec 2 166 Cornell W 99-81 81%     4.9   8 - 0 +14.4 +14.9 -1.1
  Sat, Dec 6 62 @Virginia Tech L 62-73 27%     -10.0   8 - 1 +1.0 +0.8 -0.8
  Sat, Dec 13 253 Old Dominion W 73-61 90%     10.3   9 - 1 +3.6 -5.2 +8.6
  Sun, Dec 21 344 Loyola Maryland W 86-79 96%     -0.5   10 - 1 -7.9 +7.2 -14.8
  Sun, Dec 28 218 Penn W 83-79 87%     3.0   11 - 1 -2.3 +7.2 -9.4
  Wed, Dec 31 233 @La Salle W 80-75 74%     -4.7   12 - 1 1 - 0 +3.9 +16.4 -12.0
  Sat, Jan 3 130 Rhode Island W 61-50 74%     4.0   13 - 1 2 - 0 +9.9 -2.5 +13.8
  Wed, Jan 7 189 @Fordham W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 73-76 40%    
  Tue, Jan 13 235 @Loyola Chicago W 74-67 74%    
  Mon, Jan 19 70 George Washington W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 130 @Rhode Island W 69-68 54%    
  Wed, Jan 28 138 Davidson W 71-64 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 116 @St. Bonaventure L 70-71 47%    
  Wed, Feb 4 122 Duquesne W 79-73 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 199 Saint Joseph's W 75-64 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 118 @Richmond L 72-73 49%    
  Fri, Feb 13 70 @George Washington L 74-80 30%    
  Wed, Feb 18 75 Dayton W 70-69 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 199 @Saint Joseph's W 72-67 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 116 St. Bonaventure W 73-68 68%    
  Tue, Mar 3 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Mar 7 35 Saint Louis L 74-79 34%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.7 5.9 1.4 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 6.1 6.3 1.6 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.6 6.9 2.2 0.1 15.7 5th
6th 0.4 3.8 6.0 2.0 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 5.0 2.0 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.9 0.2 6.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.2 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.4 8.3 11.8 15.1 16.6 15.3 12.1 7.6 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 88.7% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 61.9% 2.3    0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 21.8% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 2.7 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 53.7% 32.9% 20.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 30.9%
16-2 1.5% 32.0% 15.5% 16.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 19.5%
15-3 3.8% 20.7% 12.6% 8.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.0 9.2%
14-4 7.6% 14.9% 12.1% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 6.5 3.2%
13-5 12.1% 10.6% 9.6% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 1.0 0.2 10.8 1.1%
12-6 15.3% 7.3% 6.9% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 14.2 0.5%
11-7 16.6% 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 11.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 15.8 0.1%
10-8 15.1% 2.5% 2.5% 11.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.7
9-9 11.8% 1.7% 1.7% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.6
8-10 8.3% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.1 0.0 8.2
7-11 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 5.5% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 93.4 1.1%