George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#122
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#138
Pace66.3#236
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#154
First Shot-0.3#193
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#114
Layup/Dunks+0.9#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#95
Freethrows-1.4#291
Improvement-0.2#223

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#112
First Shot+3.4#75
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#304
Layups/Dunks+2.2#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#113
Freethrows+1.2#89
Improvement+0.2#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 5.7% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 90.3% 96.5% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 84.4% 55.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.2% 5.7% 4.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 27   @ Auburn L 52-70 12%     0 - 1 -2.4 -12.3 +9.9
  Nov 11, 2022 181   Longwood W 83-69 71%     1 - 1 +10.8 +10.4 +0.6
  Nov 13, 2022 236   American W 73-56 81%     2 - 1 +10.5 +4.2 +8.1
  Nov 18, 2022 144   Boston College L 56-71 54%     2 - 2 -13.4 -12.6 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2022 128   Belmont L 62-66 51%     2 - 3 -1.7 -6.6 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2022 183   Buffalo L 74-82 62%     2 - 4 -8.5 +0.3 -8.8
  Nov 26, 2022 221   Queens W 72-65 78%     3 - 4 +1.5 +4.8 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2022 107   Hofstra W 81-77 OT 56%     4 - 4 +5.0 +0.6 +4.1
  Dec 03, 2022 104   Toledo W 80-73 55%     5 - 4 +8.4 -1.5 +9.6
  Dec 06, 2022 292   Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-54 87%     6 - 4 +3.3 -1.5 +5.9
  Dec 17, 2022 77   Tulane W 62-56 34%     7 - 4 +12.9 -12.3 +24.9
  Dec 21, 2022 176   @ Old Dominion L 77-78 50%     7 - 5 +1.5 +12.9 -11.4
  Dec 23, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 91-53 94%     8 - 5 +23.3 +3.7 +17.1
  Dec 31, 2022 125   Richmond W 62-58 62%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +3.7 -2.4 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2023 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 69-73 45%     9 - 6 1 - 1 -0.1 +3.8 -4.2
  Jan 07, 2023 220   Loyola Chicago W 86-75 77%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +5.7 +8.3 -2.8
  Jan 11, 2023 79   @ Saint Louis L 62-63 26%     10 - 7 2 - 2 +8.3 -6.0 +14.3
  Jan 14, 2023 123   Davidson W 67-65 61%     11 - 7 3 - 2 +1.9 -0.4 +2.4
  Jan 16, 2023 191   George Washington L 75-78 74%     11 - 8 3 - 3 -6.9 -5.4 -1.4
  Jan 21, 2023 198   @ Rhode Island W 79-72 55%     12 - 8 4 - 3 +8.3 +4.2 +3.6
  Jan 25, 2023 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 52-72 25%     12 - 9 4 - 4 -10.2 -9.6 -1.7
  Jan 29, 2023 162   Saint Joseph's L 76-79 69%     12 - 10 4 - 5 -5.4 +1.8 -7.2
  Feb 01, 2023 143   Massachusetts W 70-59 64%     13 - 10 5 - 5 +9.9 -0.1 +10.4
  Feb 04, 2023 220   @ Loyola Chicago W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 08, 2023 126   @ Duquesne L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 198   Rhode Island W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 15, 2023 191   @ George Washington W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 230   La Salle W 72-63 81%    
  Feb 25, 2023 68   @ Dayton L 60-68 22%    
  Mar 01, 2023 132   Fordham W 69-66 64%    
  Mar 04, 2023 125   @ Richmond L 64-66 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.4 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 4.9 2.4 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 6.6 0.5 12.7 4th
5th 2.1 11.1 2.3 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.1 7.9 6.5 0.1 14.6 6th
7th 1.2 10.6 1.2 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 4.8 5.4 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.4 6.9 1.0 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 4.0 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 3.1 0.9 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.5 1.9 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.7 18.0 27.2 24.9 14.6 4.9 0.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 24.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.7% 9.1% 9.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 4.9% 8.2% 8.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5
11-7 14.6% 6.9% 6.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.6
10-8 24.9% 5.8% 5.8% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 23.5
9-9 27.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 25.9
8-10 18.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 17.3
7-11 7.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 7.5
6-12 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 9.1% 12.3 0.6 5.2 3.0 0.3
Lose Out 0.2% 3.3% 16.0 3.3