IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.6	#89
Expected Predictive Rating	+5.6	#79

Pace	63.1	#322
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#117

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.3	#57

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	1.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.0%	13.6%	5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	3.6%	4.1%	1.6%
Average Seed	10.5	10.3	11.7

.500 or above	86.9%	89.9%	74.8%
.500 or above in Conference	69.9%	72.8%	57.8%
Conference Champion	10.1%	11.3%	5.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.9%	2.4%	5.3%

First Four	2.0%	2.2%	1.2%
First Round	11.3%	12.8%	5.3%
Second Round	4.1%	4.5%	2.6%
Sweet Sixteen	1.1%	1.2%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 2	3 - 4	3 - 6
Quad 3	8 - 4	11 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 1	20 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	241	Wofford	W	70-46	88%	1 - 0			+16.6	-1.0	+19.4
Nov 07, 2025	151	Winthrop	W	76-67	81%
Nov 15, 2025	356	New Hampshire	W	77-56	97%
Nov 18, 2025	254	Jacksonville	W	72-59	89%
Nov 24, 2025	139	Ohio	W	73-68	67%
Nov 29, 2025	140	James Madison	W	69-61	76%
Dec 02, 2025	160	Cornell	W	77-68	81%
Dec 06, 2025	68	@ Virginia Tech	L	66-71	34%
Dec 13, 2025	199	Old Dominion	W	72-61	82%
Dec 21, 2025	301	Loyola Maryland	W	73-57	92%
Dec 28, 2025	275	Penn	W	75-60	90%
Dec 31, 2025	174	@ La Salle	W	70-66	64%
Jan 03, 2026	125	Rhode Island	W	73-66	72%
Jan 07, 2026	229	@ Fordham	W	73-67	71%
Jan 10, 2026	56	Virginia Commonwealth	L	66-67	47%
Jan 13, 2026	144	@ Loyola Chicago	W	68-66	58%
Jan 19, 2026	75	George Washington	W	68-66	57%
Jan 24, 2026	125	@ Rhode Island	W	70-69	54%
Jan 28, 2026	142	Davidson	W	70-62	76%
Jan 31, 2026	113	@ St. Bonaventure	L	63-64	51%
Feb 04, 2026	102	Duquesne	W	67-62	65%
Feb 07, 2026	114	Saint Joseph's	W	70-64	68%
Feb 10, 2026	128	@ Richmond	W	65-64	54%
Feb 13, 2026	75	@ George Washington	L	65-69	35%
Feb 18, 2026	59	Dayton	L	65-66	49%
Feb 25, 2026	114	@ Saint Joseph's	L	66-67	49%
Feb 28, 2026	113	St. Bonaventure	W	66-60	70%
Mar 03, 2026	56	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	63-70	26%
Mar 07, 2026	73	Saint Louis	W	74-73	55%
Projected Record						19 - 10	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														1.1	3.0	2.9	1.8	1.2	0.2		10.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	2.7	4.6	4.9	1.2	0.1	0.0			13.8	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.6	4.7	3.1	0.6	0.2					10.3	3rd
4th										0.1	1.6	4.5	3.8	0.6	0.0						10.7	4th
5th										0.5	3.6	3.6	0.8								8.4	5th
6th									0.3	2.2	4.1	1.5	0.1								8.4	6th
7th								0.1	1.6	3.6	2.0	0.2									7.5	7th
8th							0.0	1.1	4.0	2.3	0.2										7.6	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	2.3	2.3	0.3											5.6	9th
10th						0.2	2.0	2.5	0.7												5.4	10th
11th					0.1	1.4	2.2	1.3	0.1												5.1	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	0.5	1.3	0.8	0.1													3.1	12th
13th			0.1	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.1														2.1	13th
14th	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.0															1.9	14th

Total	0.2	0.2	0.6	1.4	1.8	3.7	5.8	7.4	9.1	9.0	11.7	11.6	12.1	9.4	8.5	4.3	1.9	1.2	0.2			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	96.9%	1.2		1.2	0.0
16-2	94.0%	1.8		1.5	0.3
15-3	66.9%	2.9		1.6	1.2	0.1
14-4	35.8%	3.0		1.1	1.3	0.5		0.0
13-5	11.7%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	10.1%	10.1		5.8	3.2	1.0	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		50.0%		50.0%	4.0				0.0		0.0												0.1		50.0%
17-1	1.2%		81.2%	53.2%	28.1%	7.0			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.2		0.1	0.3	0.0	0.1						0.2		59.9%
16-2	1.9%		77.8%	41.9%	35.9%	9.1						0.0	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5						0.4		61.8%
15-3	4.3%		46.4%	29.5%	16.9%	10.2								0.0	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.2					2.3		24.0%
14-4	8.5%		28.2%	17.4%	10.8%	10.8										0.2	0.3	1.4	0.4					6.1		13.0%
13-5	9.4%		19.7%	16.5%	3.2%	11.2										0.0	0.2	1.1	0.6					7.6		3.9%
12-6	12.1%		12.0%	10.1%	1.9%	11.4											0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0				10.6		2.1%
11-7	11.6%		7.9%	7.6%	0.3%	11.9												0.2	0.5	0.2				10.6		0.4%
10-8	11.7%		4.2%	4.2%		11.9												0.1	0.3		0.0			11.2
9-9	9.0%		2.5%	2.5%		12.0												0.0	0.2	0.0				8.8
8-10	9.1%		0.4%	0.4%		12.0													0.0					9.1
7-11	7.4%		1.0%	1.0%		15.0															0.0		0.0	7.3
6-12	5.8%																							5.8
5-13	3.7%		1.0%	1.0%		13.0														0.0				3.7
4-14	1.8%																							1.8
3-15	1.4%																							1.4
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		12.0%	8.7%	3.3%	10.5			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.4	4.9	2.9	0.3	0.1		0.0	88.0		3.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	4.0			50.0		50.0