Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#126
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#121
Pace67.9#191
Improvement-0.7#273

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#97
First Shot+0.4#169
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#39
Layup/Dunks-0.6#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#52
Freethrows-2.2#326
Improvement-1.4#339

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#189
First Shot+2.2#106
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#351
Layups/Dunks-0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#139
Freethrows-0.1#196
Improvement+0.7#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 98.7% 99.8% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.9% 76.5% 46.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 5.0% 4.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 69 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 189   Montana W 91-63 72%     1 - 0 +24.1 +17.7 +7.5
  Nov 11, 2022 32   @ Kentucky L 52-77 12%     1 - 1 -10.0 -15.4 +5.7
  Nov 14, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 96-71 95%     2 - 1 +7.9 +7.7 -1.1
  Nov 18, 2022 118   Colgate W 85-80 48%     3 - 1 +7.7 +7.0 +0.6
  Nov 21, 2022 282   North Florida W 83-82 86%     4 - 1 -8.3 +5.5 -13.7
  Nov 23, 2022 353   Alabama St. W 75-57 95%     5 - 1 +1.9 +4.9 -0.9
  Nov 29, 2022 101   UC Santa Barbara W 72-61 52%     6 - 1 +12.8 +7.9 +5.9
  Dec 03, 2022 155   Ball St. W 78-77 67%     7 - 1 -1.2 +10.4 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2022 78   Marshall L 71-82 44%     7 - 2 -7.1 -4.2 -2.3
  Dec 11, 2022 184   New Mexico St. L 60-73 71%     7 - 3 -16.4 -12.7 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2022 124   DePaul W 66-55 60%     8 - 3 +10.8 -2.6 +14.4
  Dec 17, 2022 117   Indiana St. W 92-86 59%     9 - 3 +6.0 +10.3 -4.8
  Dec 21, 2022 244   Winthrop W 74-57 81%     10 - 3 +10.0 +1.4 +10.2
  Dec 28, 2022 68   @ Dayton L 57-69 21%     10 - 4 0 - 1 -1.1 -6.5 +4.9
  Dec 31, 2022 198   Rhode Island W 72-61 73%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +6.8 +1.9 +5.4
  Jan 04, 2023 74   Virginia Commonwealth W 79-70 42%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +13.4 +12.1 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2023 125   @ Richmond L 73-75 39%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +3.1 +10.0 -7.1
  Jan 11, 2023 162   @ Saint Joseph's W 92-80 47%     13 - 5 3 - 2 +15.0 +16.8 -2.4
  Jan 18, 2023 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 56-65 44%     13 - 6 3 - 3 -5.1 -10.9 +5.5
  Jan 21, 2023 132   Fordham L 58-65 62%     13 - 7 3 - 4 -7.8 -10.7 +2.7
  Jan 25, 2023 220   Loyola Chicago W 72-58 77%     14 - 7 4 - 4 +8.7 +1.0 +8.6
  Jan 28, 2023 143   @ Massachusetts L 79-87 42%     14 - 8 4 - 5 -3.7 -2.6 +0.1
  Feb 04, 2023 191   @ George Washington W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 08, 2023 122   George Mason W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 147   St. Bonaventure W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 162   Saint Joseph's W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 79   @ Saint Louis L 71-78 25%    
  Feb 22, 2023 230   @ La Salle W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 26, 2023 123   Davidson W 70-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2023 143   Massachusetts W 76-73 64%    
  Mar 04, 2023 132   @ Fordham L 70-72 40%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.3 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.2 2.0 0.1 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 5.1 5.4 0.4 11.1 4th
5th 1.9 9.4 1.6 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 7.1 4.9 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 1.3 9.8 0.8 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 5.0 4.6 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.6 7.8 1.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 2.7 4.8 0.1 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 4.7 1.2 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.1 0.1 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.6 3.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.8 11.7 20.3 24.6 20.8 11.9 4.1 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 34.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 9.4% 9.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 4.1% 8.3% 8.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.8
11-7 11.9% 6.6% 6.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.1
10-8 20.8% 5.0% 5.0% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 19.7
9-9 24.6% 4.5% 4.5% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 23.5
8-10 20.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 19.5
7-11 11.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.3
6-12 4.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.4 0.1 0.0 4.7
5-13 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 9.4% 11.9 2.6 5.3 1.5
Lose Out 0.2%