Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.4 112
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 127
Pace 73.8 55
Improvement +3.7 41

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #118 B- C C- B B+
Defense C+ #119 C B- C+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 61% 100 +3.5 72
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% 345 35% 270 -4.2 353
Three Pointers 47% 52 35% 143 +3.9 58
1st FG Attempt 1.08 87 +3.2 86
Second Chance 30.5% 185 1.03 164 0.32 166
Turnovers 17.8% 234
Freethrows 0.35 45 72% 190 0.26 60
Total Offense +1.7 118

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 58% 181 +0.2 171
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 70 36% 115 -0.9 257
Three Pointers 38% 267 34% 181 +1.6 118
1st FG Attempt 1.00 147 +0.9 146
Second Chance 28.0% 81 0.99 121 0.28 82
Turnovers 17.6% 134
Freethrows 0.34 298 72% 202 0.25 292
Total Defense +1.7 119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.5 21 -0.5 94
Shot Type Accuracy +1.6 114 -0.4 165
Possession Length 15.9 52 17.4 200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 50 0.22 320
Improvement +2.2 #70 +1.5 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.2% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 77.1% 92.4% 64.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 91.7% 62.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 8
Quad 35 - 58 - 13
Quad 48 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 346 Niagara W 83 - 63 95% +17  100% 1 - 0 +5 C- -1 A C F B +6 B- B B+
 Fri, Nov 7 293 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 90% +7  91% 2 - 0 +2 C+ +4 F B+ A C- -3 B C F+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 81% +9  93% 3 - 0 +0 F -12 D+ F+ D- A +11 B A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Villanova L 77 - 87 10% -6  28% 3 - 1 +7 A- +10 A+ D+ F+ C- -3 A+ F B+
 Wed, Nov 19 304 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 91% +12  99% 4 - 1 +3 B- +4 B- A F C- -3 D C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 266 Northeastern L 86 - 93 81% -3  2% 4 - 2 -13 D- -9 C+ F F C- -3 F B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 153 William & Mary L 79 - 83 73% -8  8% 4 - 3 -7 D -5 D A+ F C -1 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 221 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  94% 5 - 3 +3 B +8 A+ D- C D+ -5 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 56 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 19% -12  0% 5 - 4 -9 D -6 D- C+ C+ C- -3 C C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 76 @Nevada L 75 - 78 25% -5  21% 5 - 5 +8 B +7 C B+ D C +0 A- D C-
 Mon, Dec 22 349 Canisius W 103 - 59 95% +22  97% 6 - 5 +29 A+ +18 A+ C+ B- A- +9 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 110 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 38% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 +13 B +8 C B- B B- +4 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 33% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 -5 B- +6 A+ D- C F+ -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 131 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 46% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 -2 B +7 A- B- D+ D- -9 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 98 Dayton L 65 - 71 55% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 -4 C- -2 C- F A- C- -3 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 169 @Fordham W 74 - 63 54% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 +13 C +2 B D+ D A +11 A B- C
 Tue, Jan 20 28 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 20% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 +8 C -0 D+ A+ D A- +9 A- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 278 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 75% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 +8 D+ -4 C F+ D A+ +13 A B D
 Wed, Jan 28 133 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 68% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 -9 C +1 B F B+ F+ -11 F+ A- F
 Sun, Feb 1 114 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 63% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 +15 B+ +8 A- C+ C B+ +8 B- B+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 85 @George Mason W 71 - 65 27% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 +16 B- +5 C- A+ B A +11 C- A- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 78 George Washington W 88 - 86 47% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 +6 A+ +15 B C- A+ D- -9 D C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 133 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 78 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 210 La Salle W 78 - 69 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @Dayton L 73 - 78 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 110 Davidson W 74 - 71 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 28 @Saint Louis L 75 - 90 8%
 Wed, Mar 4 114 @Rhode Island L 72 - 75 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 137 Richmond W 80 - 75 68%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +3 C+ +2 B- C C- C+ +2 C B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C- C+ C+ 42% 10% 47% B+ B- C C C C- B C B C+ C C+ C C 38% 24% 38% C+ C B- C+ B- C+ D+ C D+
1.11 61% 35% 35% +2 +2 1.08 31% 1.0 .32 18% .35 72% .26 1.06 58% 36% 34% 0 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 18% .34 72% .26
Nov
3		 Niagara C- A+ F A A 39% 12% 49% B A D- A+ C F D- C D- B D+ D+ A+ B- 47% 23% 30% B- B- B- A- B B+ F F+ F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart C+ B A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B F B B- B+ A A+ D- A+ C- F A+ A- B 28% 14% 58% C- B F A+ C F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B F D 52% 12% 37% B+ D+ F C- F+ D- A- F C- A B+ D+ C B 32% 21% 47% B+ B C+ A+ A+ B F C+ F+
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- D- A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A- A+ A- F D+ F+ A+ C- A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C F B+ F D+ F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B B- B A- A F A+ C+ A+ C- D- A B- D+ 49% 8% 43% F D A+ F C+ D+ D- A D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern D- C- B+ A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C F F B- D- C C- F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D F C- A+ B+ A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A F F+ 40% 4% 56% B+ D A- A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C C- A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A A F B
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B C- A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B A+ B+ F D- C A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B 36% 13% 52% D+ B- D C D+ F C+ F+ C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +11 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -4 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D B+ F F F 38% 16% 45% B+ D- D+ A+ C+ C+ C+ F+ C- C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A F C- D- B F C
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D A+ D D+ 42% 4% 54% A C A C- B+ D B A+ A+ C A+ D+ C- A- 43% 40% 17% A- A- C+ F D C- F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ C+ B- D+ B C- A- C C D+ F+ 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A F C A+ D- A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +21 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B F F A+ C- 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B- B C+ A+ A- B- C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A+ A+ C- A- F A- F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B- A+ A D+ A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D D- C A+ F+ A- F+ D- B+ C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D+ F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's B B A+ C- A- 35% 18% 47% B- A- B C B- D+ C A+ B D- C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C- F D+ B+ C+ F+ F C F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C- C C+ D D+ 39% 11% 50% A- C- D F F A- A+ B- A+ C- B- A+ F C- 45% 15% 40% C C- A- A+ A+ C- F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B D- B D+ D A+ D A+ A B F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C+ A D+ A- B- C D A+ C
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C D+ F F D 39% 14% 46% B+ D+ A A- A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D+ F A 55% 14% 31% C+ A- A- F C- A- F A D
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D+ C F B+ C 43% 15% 43% B C F B+ F+ D A F B A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B A A+ F B D D+ D- D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -10 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B 40% 12% 48% B B C F F B+ A- F D+ F+ B F F F 43% 29% 29% C+ F+ A+ F A- F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ C- F A+ B+ 41% 2% 56% A- A- B C- C+ C A- A+ A+ B+ C- A+ D C+ 29% 22% 49% A B- A- C+ B+ C C A+ A+
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B- D- F B C- 39% 20% 41% B C- B A+ A+ B A+ B A+ A F A+ D- D 30% 30% 39% A C- C+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A+ B C- B B 51% 18% 31% B B B F C- A+ A+ B+ A+ D- D A+ F+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ C- A D F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.5 0.2 3.7 3rd
4th 0.2 5.9 8.6 1.7 0.0 16.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 13.5 4.4 0.2 21.1 5th
6th 0.7 10.3 7.0 0.3 18.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.9 10.7 1.2 15.8 7th
8th 0.8 8.2 4.1 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 4.7 0.4 8.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 0.2 2.2 10th
11th 0.3 0.3 0.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.8 5.8 17.8 28.6 27.9 15.3 3.6 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 9.4% 9.4% 11.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 3.6% 6.1% 5.8% 0.3% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 0.3%
11-7 15.3% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.8
10-8 27.9% 2.3% 2.3% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 27.2
9-9 28.6% 1.2% 1.2% 12.4 0.2 0.1 28.3
8-10 17.8% 0.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.7
7-11 5.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 12.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%