Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#56
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#30
Pace71.5#116
Improvement-0.5#222

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#46
First Shot+4.6#50
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#128
Layup/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#268
Freethrows+3.6#16
Improvement+0.6#114

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#88
First Shot+3.0#86
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#183
Layups/Dunks+1.0#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#72
Freethrows-1.8#289
Improvement-1.1#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 3.7% 4.8% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 44.2% 29.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.9% 32.5% 18.8%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.0
.500 or above 96.9% 98.5% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 92.0% 88.2%
Conference Champion 19.6% 21.4% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four8.7% 9.9% 7.0%
First Round33.6% 38.9% 25.7%
Second Round14.8% 17.9% 10.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.4% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.1% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 25 - 46 - 7
Quad 37 - 214 - 10
Quad 49 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 96-61 98%     1 - 0 +19.0 +5.6 +10.1
  Nov 12, 2021 347   Eastern Illinois W 86-44 98%     2 - 0 +25.2 +6.8 +18.3
  Nov 16, 2021 23   @ Memphis L 74-90 21%     2 - 1 +0.8 +0.2 +3.1
  Nov 20, 2021 196   Mercer W 75-58 88%     3 - 1 +12.5 +4.1 +9.5
  Nov 23, 2021 241   Illinois St. W 82-76 87%     4 - 1 +1.9 +2.7 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin W 79-68 77%     5 - 1 +11.5 +4.1 +7.1
  Nov 30, 2021 79   @ Boise St. W 86-82 OT 44%     6 - 1 +13.8 +13.4 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2021 51   UAB W 74-72 60%    
  Dec 07, 2021 68   Belmont W 79-75 64%    
  Dec 11, 2021 125   Boston College W 74-65 78%    
  Dec 18, 2021 21   Auburn L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 22, 2021 58   Drake W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 30, 2021 116   @ Massachusetts W 83-81 58%    
  Jan 02, 2022 83   Richmond W 79-74 65%    
  Jan 05, 2022 244   La Salle W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 08, 2022 39   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 11, 2022 113   @ Dayton W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 246   Fordham W 77-61 92%    
  Jan 23, 2022 116   Massachusetts W 86-78 77%    
  Jan 26, 2022 262   George Washington W 80-63 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 194   @ Duquesne W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 02, 2022 115   @ George Mason W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 113   Dayton W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 08, 2022 244   @ La Salle W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 11, 2022 39   St. Bonaventure W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 73   @ Davidson L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 22, 2022 220   Saint Joseph's W 86-72 88%    
  Feb 25, 2022 83   @ Richmond L 76-77 45%    
  Mar 02, 2022 78   @ Rhode Island L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-62 66%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 6.5 4.4 1.9 0.3 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.9 5.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.9 1.3 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 5.6 1.3 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.0 1.8 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.8 3.2 2.7 0.3 7.0 7th
8th 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.3 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.9 8.0 11.1 13.4 15.8 14.7 11.8 8.9 4.6 1.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 95.3% 4.4    3.8 0.7
15-3 73.4% 6.5    3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.0% 4.6    1.5 1.9 1.0 0.2
13-5 11.0% 1.6    0.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 11.3 5.8 1.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.6% 40.4% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 98.8% 40.0% 58.7% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9%
16-2 4.6% 95.3% 33.4% 61.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 92.9%
15-3 8.9% 84.5% 31.8% 52.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 77.2%
14-4 11.8% 69.4% 25.6% 43.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.0 0.7 0.1 3.6 58.9%
13-5 14.7% 50.2% 18.2% 32.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 1.8 0.1 7.3 39.2%
12-6 15.8% 30.9% 13.4% 17.5% 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.3 0.1 10.9 20.2%
11-7 13.4% 15.1% 9.6% 5.6% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 11.4 6.2%
10-8 11.1% 8.8% 4.7% 4.2% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 10.1 4.4%
9-9 8.0% 4.8% 4.3% 0.5% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.6 0.5%
8-10 4.9% 3.0% 3.0% 12.4 0.1 0.1 4.7
7-11 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.2% 15.5% 22.7% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.5 7.3 11.1 6.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 61.8 26.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 65.6 34.4