Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +15.2 28
Expected Predictive Rating +19.8 12
Pace 76.7 22
Improvement -0.5 213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #30 A+ C+ C+ C A
Defense B #34 A- B+ C- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 65% 57 +7.1 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% 365 39% 149 -5.5 364
Three Pointers 48% 39 42% 3 +9.4 3
1st FG Attempt 1.24 1 +11.0 1
Second Chance 32.9% 112 1.07 107 0.35 93
Turnovers 15.9% 113
Freethrows 0.31 180 73% 155 0.23 162
Total Offense +8.8 30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 270 49% 15 +4.8 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 76 35% 87 -0.6 240
Three Pointers 41% 193 28% 8 +3.8 41
1st FG Attempt 0.86 7 +8.0 7
Second Chance 25.6% 27 0.86 16 0.22 14
Turnovers 15.9% 243
Freethrows 0.32 229 73% 246 0.23 240
Total Defense +6.4 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +2.3 2 -0.6 77
Shot Type Accuracy +8.1 9 -7.4 5
Possession Length 14.6 7 18.0 294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 7 0.16 124
Improvement +0.4 #162 -0.8 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.6% 10.9% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 34.5% 35.4% 10.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 94.0% 90.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.6% 86.9% 79.2%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.0% 98.4% 88.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 2.9% 7.0%
First Round92.9% 93.0% 88.1%
Second Round57.9% 58.4% 44.6%
Sweet Sixteen19.6% 19.9% 9.7%
Elite Eight7.1% 7.3% 2.7%
Final Four2.4% 2.5% 0.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 0
Quad 27 - 29 - 2
Quad 39 - 018 - 3
Quad 412 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 247 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 97% +10  75% 1 - 0 +17 B +6 B C C- B+ +9 A A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 358 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  90% 2 - 0 +5 C+ +2 A F B- C -2 C C B-
 Mon, Nov 10 242 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 97% +22  98% 3 - 0 +35 A+ +17 A+ A+ F A +12 C B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 65 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 82% +11  93% 4 - 0 +20 C+ +3 A+ C- F A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 231 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 97% +19  97% 5 - 0 +24 A- +12 A+ C- D A +12 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 27 43 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 61% -3  11% 6 - 0 +13 C +1 B- D A+ A +13 A+ A- C+
 Fri, Nov 28 86 Stanford L 77 - 78 80% +6  77% 6 - 1 +5 C+ +2 D- A- A- B- +3 B+ A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 167 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 88% +12  94% 7 - 1 +24 A- +10 A+ A+ F A +11 A- B C
 Sun, Dec 7 297 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 98% +23  96% 8 - 1 +31 A+ +26 A A+ A+ B +5 C B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 106 San Francisco W 85 - 75 90% +1  50% 9 - 1 +11 B+ +9 A C- C C+ +2 B A- D
 Wed, Dec 17 232 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 97% +31  94% 10 - 1 +52 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ A+ +22 A+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 317 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  65% 11 - 1 +1 B +7 B C- A- D -7 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 131 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 93% +12  86% 12 - 1 1 - 0 +22 A+ +35 A+ C- A F -12 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 50 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 55% +6  97% 13 - 1 2 - 0 +23 D -5 C- F B- A+ +27 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 210 @La Salle W 84 - 72 91% +12  99% 14 - 1 3 - 0 +12 A +13 A+ D+ D- C -0 B B F
 Wed, Jan 14 169 Fordham W 78 - 56 95% +12  89% 15 - 1 4 - 0 +18 A+ +15 A+ B+ A+ B +6 A- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 137 Richmond W 88 - 63 93% +19  97% 16 - 1 5 - 0 +23 A- +12 A D+ B+ A +12 A+ D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 112 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 80% +5  80% 17 - 1 6 - 0 +10 C +2 B- B+ D- B+ +8 A+ D- C
 Fri, Jan 23 133 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 84% +25  98% 18 - 1 7 - 0 +40 A+ +22 A+ B- B+ A+ +18 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 78 George Washington W 79 - 76 85% -5  11% 19 - 1 8 - 0 +7 C- -3 C+ C C- A- +9 B+ A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 98 Dayton W 102 - 71 89% +18  99% 20 - 1 9 - 0 +33 A+ +26 A+ A+ A B +6 C B+ B+
 Tue, Feb 3 110 @Davidson W 91 - 82 80% -1  39% 21 - 1 10 - 0 +16 A+ +19 B+ A+ B+ C- -4 A- F+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 210 La Salle W 82 - 58 96% +7  82% 22 - 1 11 - 0 +18 C+ +4 A+ F B- A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Fri, Feb 13 278 @Loyola Chicago W 88 - 69 96%
 Tue, Feb 17 114 @Rhode Island W 80 - 71 81%
 Fri, Feb 20 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 87 - 80 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 98 @Dayton W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 112 Duquesne W 90 - 75 92%
 Wed, Mar 4 278 Loyola Chicago W 91 - 66 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 @George Mason W 80 - 74 70%
Totals 28 - 2 17 - 1 +15 B+ +9 A+ C+ C+ B +6 A- B+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B C A+ A- 45% 6% 48% A A+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C C+ C B B+ B- A- A 36% 24% 41% B- A- B+ B+ B+ C- C- C- C-
1.21 65% 39% 42% +8 +2 1.24 33% 1.1 .35 16% .31 73% .23 0.99 49% 35% 28% -7 -1 0.86 26% 0.9 .22 16% .32 73% .23
Nov
3		 Southeast Missouri St. B A D- D B- 49% 5% 46% A- B A F C C- D- B+ D+ B+ C+ B+ A B+ 25% 42% 32% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D- C- D-
1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27 0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26
Nov
6		 Chicago St. C+ A F A+ A- 45% 4% 51% B+ A F F F B- A+ A+ A+ C A+ F C C- 32% 38% 30% C+ C C C+ C B- F D- F
1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42 1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40
Nov
10		 Lindenwood A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 2% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C A+ A C- C+ B+ C- 42% 27% 31% B C B C B- A+ F A+ D+
1.35 76% 0% 50% +19 +4 1.48 48% 1.7 .83 25% .51 71% .36 0.81 60% 31% 27% -5 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .31 30% .46 54% .25
Nov
15		 Grand Canyon C+ B- F A+ A 46% 6% 48% A+ A+ B- D- C- F C- A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ B- A+ A+ C- C- F D-
1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25 0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30
Nov
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A- A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 59% B- A+ A+ F C- D B A+ A+ A A- D- A+ A+ 28% 17% 56% B- A+ B- D C C+ C F+ C-
1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29 0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
27		 Santa Clara C C A+ D C+ 45% 6% 49% A- B- C- F+ D A+ C- F D A A A+ A+ A+ 53% 8% 39% F A+ A- B- A- C+ F F F
1.00 59% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 16% .32 63% .20 0.99 48% 25% 25% -11 +3 0.84 31% 1.0 .31 17% .37 82% .31
Nov
28		 Stanford C+ F F F F 53% 10% 37% A+ D- B+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F A- 47% 7% 45% D+ B+ B+ B A- D+ D B- D+
1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42 1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27
Dec
2		 Loyola Marymount A- A- A+ C- A- 52% 4% 45% A+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ B+ C- A B- D- A+ A 40% 20% 40% D A- B C+ B C C D+ C-
1.18 66% 50% 32% +3 +3 1.14 49% 1.1 .54 23% .25 80% .20 0.91 55% 45% 23% -7 0 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 18% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Central Michigan A+ B+ B A- 55% 0% 45% A+ A B+ A A+ A+ C- C+ C B A+ F D C 30% 30% 40% B C B- A B+ C+ F C F
1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25 0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28
Dec
13		 San Francisco B+ A D+ C- A- 52% 12% 37% A A A- F C- C A+ C A+ C+ C+ F A+ B- 17% 19% 64% A- B A C A- D C- C C
1.21 70% 33% 32% +5 +2 1.15 36% 0.7 .25 13% .41 72% .29 1.06 56% 70% 26% -1 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 13% .34 71% .24
Dec
17		 Bethune-Cookman A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A- A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ B F+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A- B- B+ C D C- D
1.45 64% 50% 57% +20 +3 1.48 34% 1.7 .59 17% .36 65% .23 0.68 45% 19% 12% -21 -1 0.58 21% 0.9 .19 18% .36 70% .25
Dec
21		 New Hampshire B C F A+ B- 40% 11% 49% B- B C+ D- C- A- A+ C- A+ D B- F F F 31% 20% 49% A- F A+ C- A+ F C- A- C+
1.25 57% 17% 42% +3 +1 1.11 34% 0.9 .29 11% .47 74% .35 1.07 50% 50% 41% +6 -1 1.12 11% 1.0 .11 12% .28 61% .17
Dec
31		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A+ A+ D+ C C- A D+ D- D+ F B A+ D C+ 37% 21% 42% B C+ D+ F F F F C F
1.56 76% 25% 62% +29 +2 1.63 28% 1.0 .28 11% .19 64% .12 1.21 53% 18% 36% -5 0 0.92 36% 1.4 .49 9% .40 75% .30
Jan
7		 Virginia Commonwealth D C- C+ F D 59% 8% 32% A+ C- F D F B- D D+ D A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 11% 39% D A+ A+ A+ A+ C C F D+
0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17 0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31
Jan
10		 La Salle A A- A A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% A+ A+ C+ F D+ D- A+ B A+ C F D A+ B- 36% 36% 29% A B C B+ B F F B F
1.24 68% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 32% 0.9 .28 21% .41 73% .30 1.07 69% 44% 8% -5 -2 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 10% .64 67% .43
Jan
14		 Fordham A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 8% 59% A A+ C A+ B+ A+ C C C B A- B+ A- A 35% 18% 47% C A- C A+ A+ F+ D+ D- D
1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18 0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19
Jan
17		 Richmond A- A+ A+ C- A- 33% 15% 52% B+ A B F D+ B+ A A- A+ A B- A A+ A+ 17% 48% 35% A+ A+ B+ F D+ C- D+ D D
1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30 0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29
Jan
20		 Duquesne C F+ B A+ C+ 55% 14% 31% A B- C- A+ B+ D- B+ F C+ B+ B+ A A+ A+ 39% 14% 46% B- A+ F+ C- D- C F C- F
1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26 1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37
Jan
23		 St. Bonaventure A+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 2% 52% A+ A+ C B+ B- B+ F F F A+ B- B- A+ A+ 32% 34% 34% A A+ A A+ A+ D+ F A F+
1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07 0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27
Jan
27		 George Washington C- D+ C- B- C 46% 6% 48% A C+ C C- C C- B+ F D+ A- C F+ A+ A- 43% 7% 50% C B+ A A+ A+ C+ C- A- C
1.04 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 18% .36 50% .18 1.00 61% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 29% 0.8 .22 18% .34 67% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Dayton A+ C A+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A A- D B B A- F C C 47% 18% 35% C C A- C B+ B+ A+ F A-
1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +2 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25 0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24
Feb
3		 Davidson A+ C+ D- A- B 44% 12% 44% A B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ C- C+ A+ B- A 34% 19% 47% C A- B+ F F+ F D F F+
1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32 1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26
Feb
7		 La Salle C+ A F A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% C+ A+ F B F B- A B- A A+ B+ B A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% D- A C A+ A+ C+ C+ C C+
1.16 69% 20% 45% +11 +1 1.26 14% 1.3 .18 16% .35 71% .25 0.82 46% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 33% 0.3 .11 20% .32 72% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 6.1 22.6 39.1 29.6 98.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 7.2 22.6 39.1 29.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 29.6    29.6
17-1 100.0% 39.1    39.1
16-2 100.0% 22.6    20.2 2.4
15-3 85.5% 6.1    3.6 2.3 0.2
14-4 44.0% 0.6    0.1 0.4 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 98.0% 98.0 92.6 5.1 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 29.6% 98.2% 58.8% 39.5% 5.4 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 6.6 5.9 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.5 95.7%
17-1 39.1% 95.8% 56.0% 39.8% 7.4 0.1 0.9 3.1 6.8 9.1 8.0 6.0 3.1 0.4 1.6 90.5%
16-2 22.6% 89.8% 50.0% 39.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 4.7 5.9 4.8 1.2 2.3 79.6%
15-3 7.2% 82.7% 46.7% 36.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.9 1.2 67.5%
14-4 1.3% 77.6% 43.3% 34.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 60.5%
13-5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.9% 54.6% 39.3% 7.2 6.1 86.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.4% 100.0% 4.6 0.8 3.6 13.2 32.7 27.6 16.5 5.0 0.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4% 96.1% 6.4 0.4 6.9 16.3 26.3 23.9 17.1 4.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 96.8% 6.7 1.4 4.6 13.8 23.3 25.9 15.9 10.1 1.7