Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#79
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#75
Pace71.4#96
Improvement-1.0#294

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#56
First Shot+5.9#36
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#256
Layup/Dunks+3.6#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#214
Freethrows+0.4#143
Improvement-1.0#317

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#123
First Shot+1.7#120
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#179
Layups/Dunks+2.1#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#201
Freethrows-0.6#235
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 21.5% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 3.7% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 39.2% 53.9% 17.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 2.2% 0.7%
First Round18.2% 20.2% 15.3%
Second Round4.6% 5.5% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 22 - 24 - 7
Quad 39 - 312 - 9
Quad 47 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 159   Murray St. W 91-68 80%     1 - 0 +20.6 +10.9 +8.4
  Nov 12, 2022 341   Evansville W 83-65 96%     2 - 0 +3.7 +4.1 -0.6
  Nov 15, 2022 38   Memphis W 90-84 42%     3 - 0 +14.7 +11.8 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2022 31   Maryland L 67-95 29%     3 - 1 -15.6 -0.4 -14.6
  Nov 20, 2022 25   Providence W 76-73 27%     4 - 1 +16.0 +10.2 +5.9
  Nov 27, 2022 27   @ Auburn L 60-65 20%     4 - 2 +10.6 -7.0 +17.8
  Nov 30, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 80-63 95%     5 - 2 +5.1 +3.8 +2.2
  Dec 03, 2022 130   Southern Illinois W 85-72 75%     6 - 2 +12.5 +17.9 -5.0
  Dec 06, 2022 85   @ Iona L 62-84 42%     6 - 3 -13.4 -8.6 -3.9
  Dec 10, 2022 36   Boise St. L 52-57 41%     6 - 4 +4.0 -11.3 +15.1
  Dec 17, 2022 84   Drake W 83-75 62%     7 - 4 +11.4 +12.8 -1.4
  Dec 21, 2022 238   SIU Edwardsville L 67-69 89%     7 - 5 -8.7 -1.7 -7.1
  Dec 31, 2022 162   @ Saint Joseph's W 83-78 64%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +8.0 +5.7 +2.0
  Jan 04, 2023 143   @ Massachusetts L 81-90 59%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -4.7 +3.4 -7.3
  Jan 07, 2023 147   St. Bonaventure W 78-55 78%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +21.4 +13.9 +9.8
  Jan 11, 2023 122   George Mason W 63-62 74%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +0.9 -7.3 +8.2
  Jan 14, 2023 191   @ George Washington W 81-74 69%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +8.6 +3.9 +4.5
  Jan 18, 2023 220   @ Loyola Chicago W 76-59 73%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +17.2 +10.1 +8.7
  Jan 21, 2023 230   La Salle W 84-71 88%     13 - 6 6 - 1 +6.7 +6.4 -0.1
  Jan 27, 2023 123   @ Davidson W 74-70 55%     14 - 6 7 - 1 +9.4 +10.0 -0.3
  Jan 31, 2023 132   @ Fordham L 65-75 57%     14 - 7 7 - 2 -5.3 -5.3 +0.4
  Feb 03, 2023 74   Virginia Commonwealth W 72-70 60%    
  Feb 07, 2023 198   Rhode Island W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 10, 2023 68   @ Dayton L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 15, 2023 123   Davidson W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 18, 2023 126   Duquesne W 78-71 75%    
  Feb 21, 2023 125   @ Richmond W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 25, 2023 220   Loyola Chicago W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 28, 2023 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-73 37%    
  Mar 04, 2023 68   Dayton W 69-68 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 11.4 16.6 8.1 1.5 39.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 11.6 13.2 2.0 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 7.6 9.4 1.2 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 4.9 1.0 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.9 14.8 23.5 25.8 18.6 8.1 1.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-3 100.0% 8.1    7.8 0.4
14-4 89.3% 16.6    10.6 5.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 44.0% 11.4    2.9 5.8 2.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.5% 1.5    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 22.9 12.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.5% 68.3% 24.1% 44.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 58.2%
15-3 8.1% 32.7% 24.0% 8.7% 11.1 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.5 11.5%
14-4 18.6% 23.8% 21.0% 2.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 2.4 1.8 0.1 14.2 3.5%
13-5 25.8% 18.9% 18.2% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 1.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 20.9 0.8%
12-6 23.5% 15.2% 15.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 19.9 0.1%
11-7 14.8% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 12.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 13.0 0.0%
10-8 5.9% 10.4% 10.4% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.3
9-9 1.6% 7.6% 7.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-10 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.1% 17.0% 2.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 7.1 8.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 80.9 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 68.3% 9.8 0.3 1.4 5.3 17.3 23.0 19.9 1.0