Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#41
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#51
Pace77.1#30
Improvement-0.6#228

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#60
First Shot+6.0#35
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#197
Layup/Dunks+7.2#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#99
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#40
First Shot+2.1#103
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#6
Layups/Dunks+6.7#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
Freethrows-2.1#300
Improvement-0.8#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.0% 4.7% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.9% 47.5% 33.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.3% 23.7% 12.0%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.9% 97.6%
Conference Champion 43.9% 45.9% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.2% 7.7% 4.9%
First Round41.8% 44.2% 31.5%
Second Round19.2% 20.9% 12.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.3% 5.9% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 25 - 37 - 4
Quad 38 - 214 - 6
Quad 412 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 94%     1 - 0 +18.6 +8.4 +7.8
  Thu, Nov 6 349 Chicago St. W 108-86 99%     2 - 0 +6.3 +6.9 -4.6
  Mon, Nov 10 235 Lindenwood W 109-66 95%     3 - 0 +35.8 +19.1 +10.8
  Sat, Nov 15 95 Grand Canyon W 78-64 81%     4 - 0 +16.4 +3.4 +12.1
  Fri, Nov 21 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 94%     5 - 0 +24.6 +13.0 +11.5
  Thu, Nov 27 71 Santa Clara W 71-70 64%     6 - 0 +8.9 +0.0 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 28 90 Stanford L 77-78 71%     6 - 1 +4.8 +5.1 -0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 135 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 75%     7 - 1 +25.6 +14.9 +8.8
  Sun, Dec 7 318 Central Michigan W 107-65 97%     8 - 1 +30.2 +28.7 +2.0
  Sat, Dec 13 94 San Francisco W 80-71 81%    
  Wed, Dec 17 224 Bethune-Cookman W 86-68 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire W 87-62 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 171 Saint Joseph's W 83-68 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 229 @La Salle W 80-67 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 218 Fordham W 81-63 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 Richmond W 84-74 82%    
  Tue, Jan 20 143 @Duquesne W 87-79 75%    
  Fri, Jan 23 105 @St. Bonaventure W 78-73 66%    
  Tue, Jan 27 80 George Washington W 87-80 75%    
  Fri, Jan 30 70 Dayton W 81-74 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 138 @Davidson W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 229 La Salle W 83-64 95%    
  Fri, Feb 13 260 @Loyola Chicago W 83-69 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 118 @Rhode Island W 79-73 69%    
  Fri, Feb 20 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-76 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 70 @Dayton W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 143 Duquesne W 90-76 89%    
  Wed, Mar 4 260 Loyola Chicago W 86-66 96%    
  Sat, Mar 7 73 @George Mason W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.8 7.7 13.3 12.3 6.8 1.8 43.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.0 8.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.5 1.7 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 3.9 1.2 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.4 11.9 15.6 18.2 17.4 13.0 6.8 1.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 99.9% 6.8    6.6 0.2
16-2 94.7% 12.3    10.6 1.8 0.0
15-3 76.3% 13.3    8.1 4.5 0.6 0.0
14-4 42.4% 7.7    2.5 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.7% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.9% 43.9 29.9 10.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 95.8% 52.9% 43.0% 5.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.2%
17-1 6.8% 90.5% 51.4% 39.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 80.4%
16-2 13.0% 76.1% 43.6% 32.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.0 1.9 0.0 3.1 57.7%
15-3 17.4% 58.0% 35.8% 22.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 4.5 0.1 7.3 34.5%
14-4 18.2% 42.8% 31.2% 11.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.2 0.3 10.4 16.9%
13-5 15.6% 31.3% 25.2% 6.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 8.2%
12-6 11.9% 21.6% 19.2% 2.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.4 3.0%
11-7 7.4% 15.0% 14.5% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.5%
10-8 4.1% 10.5% 10.5% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.7
9-9 2.2% 6.0% 6.0% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
8-10 0.9% 3.7% 3.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 13.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 4.9% 4.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.9% 30.0% 14.9% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 5.0 9.6 18.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 55.1 21.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 3.6 5.0 17.6 25.7 27.2 14.6 7.7 1.5 0.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 93.8% 6.3 1.2 2.5 8.6 18.5 27.2 13.6 11.1 8.6 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 91.4% 6.5 1.2 1.2 7.4 14.8 28.4 17.3 4.9 6.2 9.9