Fordham
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#132
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#68
Pace72.7#69
Improvement+0.5#127

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#235
First Shot-0.9#216
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#246
Layup/Dunks-2.4#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows+1.9#54
Improvement-0.7#298

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#75
First Shot+2.3#102
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#66
Layups/Dunks-0.3#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#29
Freethrows-1.2#269
Improvement+1.2#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.8% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 97.3% 85.5%
Conference Champion 4.4% 8.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round4.1% 4.8% 3.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 35 - 37 - 7
Quad 415 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 275   Dartmouth W 88-74 84%     1 - 0 +5.4 +11.4 -6.2
  Nov 11, 2022 18   @ Arkansas L 48-74 9%     1 - 1 -9.4 -16.2 +7.7
  Nov 15, 2022 272   New Hampshire W 79-61 84%     2 - 1 +9.5 -0.9 +9.5
  Nov 19, 2022 264   Illinois-Chicago W 79-65 83%     3 - 1 +5.8 +8.2 -1.6
  Nov 21, 2022 326   Holy Cross W 67-53 90%     4 - 1 +1.9 -9.2 +11.3
  Nov 22, 2022 340   Stonehill W 71-60 92%     5 - 1 -2.8 -3.7 +1.5
  Nov 27, 2022 157   Harvard W 68-60 66%     6 - 1 +5.7 -3.9 +9.5
  Nov 30, 2022 288   Maine W 72-67 86%     7 - 1 -4.5 -1.9 -2.3
  Dec 03, 2022 77   @ Tulane W 95-90 23%     8 - 1 +14.6 +11.1 +2.8
  Dec 06, 2022 284   Wagner W 72-59 85%     9 - 1 +3.7 -1.6 +5.6
  Dec 09, 2022 324   Binghamton W 77-62 90%     10 - 1 +3.0 -6.6 +8.8
  Dec 11, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 90-77 91%     11 - 1 +0.3 +12.6 -12.1
  Dec 22, 2022 335   VMI W 80-77 OT 91%     12 - 1 -10.2 -14.0 +3.3
  Dec 28, 2022 123   Davidson L 43-57 58%     12 - 2 0 - 1 -14.1 -28.3 +13.7
  Jan 04, 2023 198   @ Rhode Island L 79-82 53%     12 - 3 0 - 2 -1.7 +7.8 -9.5
  Jan 07, 2023 162   Saint Joseph's W 66-54 66%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +9.6 -5.4 +15.4
  Jan 10, 2023 68   Dayton L 58-82 37%     13 - 4 1 - 3 -18.5 -10.4 -8.3
  Jan 14, 2023 230   @ La Salle W 66-64 61%     14 - 4 2 - 3 +1.2 -2.0 +3.3
  Jan 21, 2023 126   @ Duquesne W 65-58 38%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +12.1 -4.8 +17.1
  Jan 25, 2023 147   @ St. Bonaventure W 79-68 43%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.9 +11.0 +4.0
  Jan 28, 2023 191   George Washington W 85-70 71%     17 - 4 5 - 3 +11.1 -0.2 +10.0
  Jan 31, 2023 79   Saint Louis W 75-65 43%     18 - 4 6 - 3 +13.9 -0.5 +14.0
  Feb 05, 2023 125   @ Richmond L 65-68 37%    
  Feb 08, 2023 143   Massachusetts W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 123   @ Davidson L 66-69 37%    
  Feb 15, 2023 147   St. Bonaventure W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 22, 2023 220   @ Loyola Chicago W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 198   Rhode Island W 71-65 73%    
  Mar 01, 2023 122   @ George Mason L 66-69 36%    
  Mar 04, 2023 126   Duquesne W 72-70 60%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.3 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.5 4.0 0.4 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.9 8.7 8.2 0.9 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.1 7.0 11.4 1.6 0.0 20.2 4th
5th 1.7 10.4 2.5 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 5.1 5.1 0.2 10.4 6th
7th 0.5 6.0 0.7 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 3.0 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 0.6 3.5 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.3 2.3 7.5 16.6 24.2 23.9 15.9 7.1 1.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 96.8% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 77.8% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.3% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1
12-6 3.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 14.2% 9.7% 4.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0%
14-4 1.9% 6.7% 6.4% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.3%
13-5 7.1% 6.1% 6.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
12-6 15.9% 5.6% 5.6% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 15.0
11-7 23.9% 4.5% 4.5% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 22.8
10-8 24.2% 3.7% 3.7% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 23.3
9-9 16.6% 2.7% 2.7% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 16.2
8-10 7.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
7-11 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 14.2% 11.5 0.6 7.7 3.2 2.6
Lose Out 0.3% 0.7% 16.0 0.7