Dayton
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#95
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#166
Pace60.3#352
Improvement-0.4#351

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#191
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#267
Layup/Dunks+3.4#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#332
Freethrows+4.1#19
Improvement-0.1#264

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#46
First Shot+7.1#30
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#278
Layups/Dunks+4.5#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows+2.9#38
Improvement-0.3#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 12.3% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 82.9% 86.2% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 82.4% 72.2%
Conference Champion 13.9% 14.8% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 1.8%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round11.4% 12.0% 8.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 32 - 8
Quad 36 - 48 - 12
Quad 410 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 345   Lindenwood W 73-46 96%     1 - 0 +11.1 -3.4 +15.7
  Nov 11, 2022 194   SMU W 74-62 82%     2 - 0 +7.4 +4.0 +3.9
  Nov 15, 2022 62   @ UNLV L 52-60 28%     2 - 1 +3.3 -10.6 +13.8
  Nov 19, 2022 240   Robert Morris W 60-51 87%     3 - 1 +2.1 -7.8 +11.0
  Nov 23, 2022 32   Wisconsin L 42-43 25%     3 - 2 +11.1 -17.1 +28.0
  Nov 24, 2022 39   North Carolina St. L 64-76 29%     3 - 3 -1.2 -3.3 +1.8
  Nov 25, 2022 131   BYU L 75-79 OT 59%     3 - 4 -1.2 +4.7 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2022 316   Western Michigan W 67-47 93%     4 - 4 +8.1 -2.3 +13.9
  Dec 03, 2022 264   SE Louisiana W 80-74 88%     5 - 4 -1.9 +6.7 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2022 41   @ Virginia Tech L 49-77 21%     5 - 5 -14.3 -15.1 -1.1
  Dec 10, 2022 215   UNC Asheville W 71-60 84%    
  Dec 17, 2022 156   Wyoming W 65-61 66%    
  Dec 21, 2022 300   Alcorn St. W 71-55 93%    
  Dec 28, 2022 137   Duquesne W 68-62 70%    
  Dec 31, 2022 135   @ Davidson L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 04, 2023 234   Saint Joseph's W 70-58 86%    
  Jan 10, 2023 146   @ Fordham W 62-61 53%    
  Jan 13, 2023 104   Virginia Commonwealth W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 17, 2023 135   Davidson W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 207   @ George Washington W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 25, 2023 203   @ Rhode Island W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 28, 2023 105   Richmond W 61-57 63%    
  Jan 31, 2023 175   Loyola Chicago W 63-55 78%    
  Feb 04, 2023 120   @ St. Bonaventure L 59-60 46%    
  Feb 07, 2023 104   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-61 42%    
  Feb 10, 2023 57   Saint Louis L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 17, 2023 175   @ Loyola Chicago W 60-58 59%    
  Feb 22, 2023 98   @ Massachusetts L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 25, 2023 147   George Mason W 64-57 73%    
  Feb 28, 2023 202   La Salle W 66-56 82%    
  Mar 04, 2023 57   @ Saint Louis L 64-71 27%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.3 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 6.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.7 0.9 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.0 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 3.1 0.4 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.0 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 11.6 14.1 14.7 14.2 11.3 7.8 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.7% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.9% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 82.4% 3.7    2.6 1.0 0.1
14-4 55.6% 4.3    2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 23.7% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 7.8 4.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 84.6% 28.8% 55.8% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.4%
17-1 0.6% 60.9% 29.9% 30.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 44.1%
16-2 1.9% 36.5% 28.0% 8.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 11.8%
15-3 4.5% 24.3% 22.6% 1.7% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 2.2%
14-4 7.8% 17.9% 17.5% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.4%
13-5 11.3% 15.8% 15.8% 12.7 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.6
12-6 14.2% 13.0% 13.0% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 12.3
11-7 14.7% 10.2% 10.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.2
10-8 14.1% 8.9% 8.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 12.8
9-9 11.6% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 10.8
8-10 8.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.1
7-11 5.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.1
6-12 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.7% 11.2% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.5 2.0 1.3 0.8 88.3 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 89.5% 6.4 2.6 7.9 13.2 23.7 26.3 7.9 5.3 2.6