Dayton
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#159
Pace62.7#324
Improvement+4.4#4

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#121
First Shot-1.0#201
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#50
Layup/Dunks-0.7#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#254
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+1.6#41

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#104
First Shot+3.4#72
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#268
Layups/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#90
Freethrows+1.6#98
Improvement+2.8#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.3% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 1.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 12.8
.500 or above 71.9% 72.9% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 65.1% 49.6%
Conference Champion 4.8% 4.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.6% 4.7%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round5.6% 5.8% 2.5%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 23 - 55 - 8
Quad 35 - 410 - 11
Quad 48 - 418 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 252   Illinois-Chicago W 64-54 86%     1 - 0 +2.1 -2.7 +6.4
  Nov 13, 2021 207   Umass Lowell L 58-59 79%     1 - 1 -6.1 -7.5 +1.3
  Nov 17, 2021 219   Lipscomb L 59-78 81%     1 - 2 -24.5 -14.2 -11.7
  Nov 20, 2021 256   Austin Peay L 81-87 86%     1 - 3 -14.3 -0.3 -13.7
  Nov 25, 2021 119   Miami (FL) W 76-60 52%     2 - 3 +19.2 +4.7 +14.9
  Nov 26, 2021 9   Kansas W 74-73 11%     3 - 3 +18.0 +8.4 +9.6
  Nov 28, 2021 66   Belmont W 63-61 36%     4 - 3 +9.3 +0.2 +9.4
  Dec 01, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 77-58 96%    
  Dec 04, 2021 310   Northern Illinois W 71-56 92%    
  Dec 08, 2021 102   @ SMU L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 12, 2021 27   Virginia Tech L 61-68 27%    
  Dec 18, 2021 76   @ Mississippi L 59-65 29%    
  Dec 21, 2021 287   Southern W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 30, 2021 73   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 02, 2022 39   St. Bonaventure L 62-66 36%    
  Jan 05, 2022 80   Virginia Commonwealth L 59-60 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 267   @ George Washington W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 11, 2022 63   Saint Louis L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 15, 2022 192   @ Duquesne W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 19, 2022 246   Fordham W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 117   @ George Mason L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 28, 2022 73   Rhode Island L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 02, 2022 80   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-63 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 63   @ Saint Louis L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 09, 2022 192   Duquesne W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 267   George Washington W 71-59 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 23, 2022 120   Massachusetts W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 242   @ La Salle W 68-63 66%    
  Mar 01, 2022 77   @ Richmond L 67-73 29%    
  Mar 05, 2022 84   Davidson W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.4 3.6 4.8 1.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.7 1.9 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 5.5 3.2 0.3 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.8 3.9 0.6 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.4 1.0 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.5 9.6 12.1 13.8 14.0 12.5 10.3 6.7 4.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.1% 0.8    0.6 0.1
15-3 70.7% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.1% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 75.0% 21.3% 53.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 68.2%
16-2 0.9% 62.8% 21.2% 41.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 52.8%
15-3 2.0% 41.5% 17.9% 23.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 28.7%
14-4 4.2% 26.4% 14.4% 12.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.0%
13-5 6.7% 14.2% 10.8% 3.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8 3.8%
12-6 10.3% 9.3% 8.5% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.8%
11-7 12.5% 5.1% 4.8% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.3%
10-8 14.0% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0%
9-9 13.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.5
8-10 12.1% 1.0% 1.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-11 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.1% 4.3% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 93.9 1.9%