Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#67
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#45
Pace69.2#193
Improvement+3.8#13

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#81
First Shot+4.7#62
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#233
Layup/Dunks+4.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#248
Freethrows+3.0#44
Improvement+1.1#87

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#53
First Shot+6.2#28
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#285
Layups/Dunks+4.9#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#234
Freethrows+2.8#44
Improvement+2.7#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.7% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 30.2% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.1% 18.4% 7.4%
Average Seed 10.1 9.8 10.4
.500 or above 98.2% 99.6% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 92.0% 86.9%
Conference Champion 13.7% 17.3% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.2% 7.5% 3.9%
First Round19.1% 26.1% 15.4%
Second Round7.2% 10.5% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Neutral) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 38 - 214 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 353 Canisius W 88-48 98%     1 - 0 +24.6 +17.8 +11.0
  Sat, Nov 8 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 95%     2 - 0 -3.8 +4.0 -7.5
  Tue, Nov 11 64 @Cincinnati L 62-74 37%     2 - 1 -0.2 -8.0 +9.5
  Sat, Nov 15 228 Bethune-Cookman W 91-82 92%     3 - 1 +2.0 +16.1 -13.9
  Wed, Nov 19 79 @Marquette W 77-71 OT 43%     4 - 1 +16.2 +0.0 +15.4
  Sat, Nov 22 350 NC Central W 74-55 97%     5 - 1 +4.0 -1.7 +6.8
  Thu, Nov 27 82 Georgetown W 84-79 OT 56%     6 - 1 +11.8 +8.2 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 28 12 BYU L 79-83 16%     6 - 2 +14.9 +9.3 +5.9
  Tue, Dec 2 137 East Tennessee St. W 88-71 82%     7 - 2 +15.6 +10.6 +4.1
  Sat, Dec 6 39 Virginia L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Dec 13 343 North Florida W 91-68 98%    
  Tue, Dec 16 99 Florida St. W 81-75 73%    
  Sat, Dec 20 96 Liberty W 75-69 72%    
  Wed, Dec 31 208 Fordham W 76-62 91%    
  Sat, Jan 3 262 @Loyola Chicago W 77-66 84%    
  Tue, Jan 6 61 George Washington W 80-78 59%    
  Tue, Jan 13 135 @Duquesne W 79-75 63%    
  Fri, Jan 16 262 Loyola Chicago W 80-63 94%    
  Wed, Jan 21 227 @La Salle W 74-65 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 185 @Saint Joseph's W 76-69 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 109 Rhode Island W 76-69 75%    
  Fri, Jan 30 48 @Saint Louis L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Feb 3 111 St. Bonaventure W 74-66 76%    
  Fri, Feb 6 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 70-76 31%    
  Sun, Feb 15 131 Davidson W 75-66 80%    
  Wed, Feb 18 66 @George Mason L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 135 Duquesne W 82-72 80%    
  Tue, Feb 24 48 Saint Louis W 77-76 51%    
  Fri, Feb 27 61 @George Washington L 77-81 38%    
  Tue, Mar 3 116 @Richmond W 74-72 58%    
  Fri, Mar 6 46 Virginia Commonwealth W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.8 3.0 1.1 0.2 13.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.5 1.8 0.2 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.6 6.1 1.7 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.4 1.8 0.1 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.2 2.2 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.6 0.2 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 5.6 9.1 12.0 15.4 15.9 14.3 10.8 6.7 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 95.0% 3.0    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 71.9% 4.8    2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.6% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 7.6 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 98.3% 47.5% 50.8% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.8%
17-1 1.1% 90.0% 37.7% 52.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 83.9%
16-2 3.2% 77.9% 30.2% 47.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.7 68.4%
15-3 6.7% 58.9% 24.1% 34.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.0 2.8 45.8%
14-4 10.8% 44.1% 21.4% 22.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.4 0.1 6.0 28.9%
13-5 14.3% 28.7% 17.4% 11.3% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 0.2 10.2 13.7%
12-6 15.9% 16.9% 11.6% 5.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.2 6.0%
11-7 15.4% 10.2% 8.4% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 13.8 2.0%
10-8 12.0% 4.8% 4.4% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.5 0.4%
9-9 9.1% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.1%
8-10 5.6% 2.8% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
7-11 3.4% 2.0% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.9% 12.1% 9.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.8 10.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 78.1 11.1%