Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#78
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#116
Pace67.6#223
Improvement+0.9#100

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#94
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#58
Layup/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#220
Freethrows+3.4#18
Improvement+1.9#30

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#74
First Shot+5.2#37
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#285
Layups/Dunks+6.4#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-1.7#283
Improvement-1.0#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 19.9% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.6% 9.0% 3.6%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 11.2
.500 or above 96.4% 98.4% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 91.1% 86.0%
Conference Champion 15.0% 17.5% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.9% 3.8% 1.8%
First Round15.0% 18.0% 11.3%
Second Round5.2% 6.8% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 39 - 413 - 10
Quad 410 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 144   Boston University W 71-62 78%     1 - 0 +7.7 -5.7 +13.1
  Nov 12, 2021 236   Bryant W 83-64 89%     2 - 0 +12.2 +1.1 +9.9
  Nov 17, 2021 125   Boston College W 57-49 75%     3 - 0 +7.7 -7.9 +16.6
  Nov 20, 2021 142   Tulsa L 71-77 69%     3 - 1 -4.2 +4.0 -8.8
  Nov 21, 2021 125   Boston College W 71-65 66%     4 - 1 +8.7 +9.5 +0.0
  Nov 23, 2021 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-67 69%     4 - 2 +0.7 -1.2 +1.7
  Nov 27, 2021 141   Georgia St. W 94-59 78%     5 - 2 +33.9 +16.2 +16.9
  Dec 01, 2021 131   @ Harvard W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 04, 2021 54   @ Providence L 66-71 34%    
  Dec 07, 2021 309   Sacred Heart W 80-62 96%    
  Dec 13, 2021 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-63 81%    
  Dec 19, 2021 198   College of Charleston W 83-75 78%    
  Dec 22, 2021 216   Brown W 72-60 86%    
  Dec 30, 2021 113   Dayton W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 02, 2022 244   La Salle W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 05, 2022 115   @ George Mason W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 08, 2022 73   @ Davidson L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 12, 2022 220   Saint Joseph's W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 15, 2022 116   @ Massachusetts W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 22, 2022 262   George Washington W 75-60 92%    
  Jan 25, 2022 83   Richmond W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 28, 2022 113   @ Dayton W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 02, 2022 246   @ Fordham W 70-62 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 116   Massachusetts W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 08, 2022 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 12, 2022 73   Davidson W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 262   @ George Washington W 72-63 81%    
  Feb 22, 2022 39   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 26, 2022 194   Duquesne W 75-64 84%    
  Mar 02, 2022 56   Saint Louis W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 220   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-72 72%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 3.5 5.2 3.2 1.2 0.3 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 5.8 6.3 2.2 0.3 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 6.4 5.7 1.5 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 5.9 1.6 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.9 6.2 1.7 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.1 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.4 0.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.3 3.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.2 7.5 11.8 14.7 16.6 14.5 11.3 7.5 3.6 1.2 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 91.2% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 69.2% 5.2    3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.1% 3.5    1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2
13-5 9.3% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 8.3 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 99.3% 38.3% 61.0% 5.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
17-1 1.2% 79.1% 35.0% 44.1% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 67.8%
16-2 3.6% 69.3% 28.6% 40.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 57.0%
15-3 7.5% 45.8% 23.5% 22.3% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 29.2%
14-4 11.3% 30.7% 20.2% 10.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 7.8 13.1%
13-5 14.5% 18.1% 13.4% 4.7% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.8 5.4%
12-6 16.6% 9.8% 8.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 15.0 1.0%
11-7 14.7% 7.0% 6.7% 0.3% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.3%
10-8 11.8% 4.3% 4.3% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 11.3
9-9 7.5% 1.6% 1.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-10 5.2% 1.3% 1.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
7-11 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.6% 10.7% 5.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.8 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 83.4 6.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 96.9 3.1