Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#134
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#53
Pace68.3#202
Improvement+0.0#184

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#126
First Shot+3.2#94
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#254
Layup/Dunks+0.2#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#118
Freethrows+1.8#77
Improvement-1.4#290

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#185
First Shot-3.6#295
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#22
Layups/Dunks-2.6#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#281
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement+1.4#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.1% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.0
.500 or above 70.7% 76.9% 54.4%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 46.6% 35.0%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 6.0% 9.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 36 - 58 - 13
Quad 49 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 267   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 67%     1 - 0 +3.0 +9.4 -6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 135   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 62%     2 - 0 +4.4 +10.7 -5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 346   VMI W 93-66 93%     3 - 0 +11.7 +11.7 -0.5
  Nov 27, 2024 23   Arizona L 71-104 12%     3 - 1 -19.0 -3.9 -11.4
  Nov 28, 2024 79   Providence W 69-58 29%     4 - 1 +18.1 +9.9 +9.7
  Nov 29, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 65-90 4%     4 - 2 -3.8 -1.8 -1.4
  Dec 06, 2024 276   Charleston Southern W 73-72 84%     5 - 2 -8.3 -1.6 -6.7
  Dec 10, 2024 205   Charlotte W 72-66 73%    
  Dec 14, 2024 298   Detroit Mercy W 78-66 87%    
  Dec 18, 2024 118   @ Temple L 73-77 34%    
  Dec 21, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 28, 2024 299   Eastern Michigan W 76-64 86%    
  Dec 31, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Duquesne W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 201   Fordham W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 15, 2025 143   @ La Salle L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 91   @ Rhode Island L 74-81 25%    
  Jan 21, 2025 101   Saint Joseph's L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 186   @ Richmond L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 82   George Mason L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 04, 2025 46   @ Dayton L 68-80 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 186   Richmond W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 171   @ Massachusetts L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   George Washington W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 86   Loyola Chicago L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 201   @ Fordham W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 25, 2025 137   Saint Louis W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 28, 2025 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-75 16%    
  Mar 05, 2025 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-77 24%    
  Mar 08, 2025 88   St. Bonaventure L 69-71 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.5 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.5 0.7 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 5.5 1.7 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.7 0.2 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.9 1.1 0.0 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.3 8.6 11.4 13.4 13.8 13.6 10.9 8.0 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 89.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 64.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 29.9% 17.2% 12.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.3%
15-3 0.6% 16.9% 12.6% 4.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.9%
14-4 1.6% 13.6% 13.0% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.7%
13-5 3.2% 10.1% 9.7% 0.3% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 0.4%
12-6 5.3% 5.8% 5.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.0
11-7 8.0% 3.3% 3.3% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.7
10-8 10.9% 2.1% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.7
9-9 13.6% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.5
8-10 13.8% 0.7% 0.7% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.7
7-11 13.4% 0.4% 0.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4
6-12 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
5-13 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.1 0.1%