Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#131
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#60
Pace65.3#289
Improvement-2.1#327

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#133
First Shot+4.1#72
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#326
Layup/Dunks-4.3#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#82
Freethrows+1.5#105
Improvement+0.8#110

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#142
First Shot-0.8#195
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#86
Layups/Dunks+2.1#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-1.7#286
Improvement-2.9#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 1.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 77.4% 78.4% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.4% 55.0% 34.2%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.8% 6.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 1.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 9
Quad 36 - 39 - 12
Quad 49 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 158 Washington St. W 85-69 69%     1 - 0 +12.8 +8.4 +4.4
  Tue, Nov 11 189 @Charlotte W 62-55 54%     2 - 0 +8.0 +0.7 +8.7
  Sat, Nov 15 117 Bowling Green W 91-87 57%     3 - 0 +4.2 +9.7 -6.0
  Fri, Nov 21 133 Boston College W 59-49 50%     4 - 0 +11.9 +2.5 +11.5
  Sun, Nov 23 43 Utah St. L 60-94 18%     4 - 1 -22.3 -8.7 -13.4
  Fri, Nov 28 321 N.C. A&T W 90-74 90%     5 - 1 +3.9 +17.7 -12.8
  Thu, Dec 4 362 The Citadel W 80-60 97%    
  Sun, Dec 7 44 St. Mary's L 65-72 27%    
  Sat, Dec 13 319 Mercyhurst W 73-59 91%    
  Thu, Dec 18 154 Temple W 78-73 68%    
  Mon, Dec 22 19 @Kansas L 61-78 6%    
  Tue, Dec 30 135 Duquesne W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 185 @Saint Joseph's W 72-71 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 262 @Loyola Chicago W 73-68 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 109 Rhode Island W 72-71 54%    
  Wed, Jan 14 61 @George Washington L 73-83 18%    
  Wed, Jan 21 208 Fordham W 72-64 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 69-75 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 66 @George Mason L 64-74 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 116 @Richmond L 70-74 35%    
  Tue, Feb 3 48 Saint Louis L 72-78 29%    
  Fri, Feb 6 262 Loyola Chicago W 76-65 82%    
  Sun, Feb 15 67 @Dayton L 66-75 20%    
  Wed, Feb 18 116 Richmond W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 208 @Fordham W 69-67 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 135 @Duquesne L 74-77 40%    
  Sun, Mar 1 227 La Salle W 73-64 79%    
  Wed, Mar 4 185 Saint Joseph's W 75-68 72%    
  Sat, Mar 7 111 @St. Bonaventure L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.4 3.2 4.4 1.4 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.9 5.5 2.2 0.2 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.7 4.1 0.7 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.0 1.2 0.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.8 8.8 11.6 13.9 14.3 13.2 10.5 7.8 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 90.4% 0.3    0.3 0.1
15-3 64.2% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 26.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 36.0% 8.0% 28.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.4%
16-2 0.4% 29.8% 13.2% 16.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 19.2%
15-3 1.0% 16.1% 11.0% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 5.8%
14-4 2.5% 9.4% 7.7% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.8%
13-5 4.7% 6.4% 6.2% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4 0.3%
12-6 7.8% 4.4% 4.4% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.4
11-7 10.5% 2.6% 2.6% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.2
10-8 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.0
9-9 14.3% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2
8-10 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8
7-11 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 8.8
5-13 5.8% 5.8
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.2%