Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +3.9 #102
Pace 62.6 #340
Improvement -3.1 #312

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #173 B- C C D+ C
Defense #111 C+ B- C+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.15 #187 -2.7 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.96 #10 +1.8 #86
Three Pointers 46% #84 1.10 #66 +4.3 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #77 +3.4 #77
Freethrows 0.30 #207 67% #334 0.20 #261
Second Chance 30.4% #190 1.02 #213 0.31 #194
Turnovers 16.7% #194
Total Offense -0.3 #173

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.17 #197 +0.6 #152
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #27 0.84 #309 -3.8 #361
Three Pointers 35% #324 0.92 #66 +4.5 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 0.28 #114 65% #3 0.18 #51
Second Chance 28.7% #108 0.94 #53 0.27 #75
Turnovers 17.5% #108
Total Defense +2.0 #111

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #220 -2.0% #38
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #69 -0.5% #174
Possession Length 18.3 #269 18.4 #319
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.17 #197
Improvement -2.9 #330 -0.2 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.1
.500 or above 81.4% 93.6% 74.7%
.500 or above in Conference 58.3% 78.5% 47.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 36 - 59 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 128 Washington St. W 85 - 69 61% +16  1 - 0 +15 +10 A+ C- F +5 A+ D- A
 Tue, Nov 11 162 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 46% +10  2 - 0 +10 +0 B+ F F +11 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 146 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 65% +9  3 - 0 +2 +7 A+ D- F -6 B D F+
 Fri, Nov 21 131 Boston College W 59 - 49 50% +3  4 - 0 +12 +3 B D- A- +10 B B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 38 Utah St. L 60 - 94 14% -17  4 - 1 -21 -8 C- C- F -13 F A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 289 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 86% +9  5 - 1 +6 +17 A A+ B+ -10 F A D+
 Thu, Dec 4 348 The Citadel W 79 - 63 93% +9  6 - 1 +1 +6 D+ C+ A- -3 D- B B+
 Sun, Dec 7 43 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 25% -1  6 - 2 -0 -2 C+ F+ C +1 C+ B B-
 Sat, Dec 13 299 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 88% +17  7 - 2 +22 +19 A+ C+ B +9 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 148 Temple L 63 - 68 65% -6  7 - 3 -7 -4 F B+ B -4 B A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 17 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  7 - 4 -8 -4 B- C+ F -3 F+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 121 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 58% +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -6 +1 D D+ A+ -7 B D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 139 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 40% -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +3 D A+ F +8 A- C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 282 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 70% +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +11 +7 A- C+ D- +5 A D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 109 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 54% -14  9 - 6 2 - 2 -24 -19 F F C- -10 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 65 @George Washington W 84 - 79 18% +9  10 - 6 3 - 2 +17 +19 A+ A C+ -2 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 192 Fordham W 68 - 63 74% -1  11 - 6 4 - 2 -0 -0 C+ D D +0 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 29% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 +1 +7 B+ C- A+ -6 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 85 @George Mason L 52 - 60 22% -3  11 - 8 4 - 4 +2 -6 D C F +6 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 117 @Richmond L 68 - 72 35%
 Tue, Feb 3 23 Saint Louis L 67 - 78 14%
 Fri, Feb 6 282 Loyola Chicago W 75 - 63 86%
 Sun, Feb 15 91 @Dayton L 64 - 71 24%
 Wed, Feb 18 117 Richmond W 71 - 69 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 192 @Fordham W 65 - 64 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 121 @Duquesne L 71 - 75 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 207 La Salle W 70 - 63 76%
 Wed, Mar 4 139 Saint Joseph's W 69 - 66 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 @St. Bonaventure L 69 - 72 41%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +0 B- C C +2 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.8 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 8.6 3.7 0.3 15.1 5th
6th 0.9 8.5 6.6 0.6 16.6 6th
7th 0.1 5.2 9.2 1.4 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 9.7 3.3 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 0.2 5.4 4.8 0.2 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 4.8 0.6 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.3 2.5 1.3 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.6 13.2 21.2 23.9 19.1 10.4 4.0 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.8% 5.6% 5.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
11-7 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.3
10-8 19.1% 0.9% 0.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.9
9-9 23.9% 0.6% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.8
8-10 21.2% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 21.2
7-11 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 13.2
6-12 5.6% 5.6
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 12.0 99.2 0.0%