George Washington
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#207
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#265
Pace70.9#120
Improvement+0.1#109

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#101
First Shot+1.2#137
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#102
Layup/Dunks-1.7#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#150
Freethrows+0.2#150
Improvement+0.0#157

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#302
First Shot-1.1#202
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#344
Layups/Dunks-0.6#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#298
Freethrows+2.7#45
Improvement+0.1#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 34.4% 43.1% 19.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.7% 29.6% 19.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 21.6% 18.3% 27.4%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round1.2% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 34 - 85 - 13
Quad 47 - 312 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 334   Howard W 85-75 87%     1 - 0 -4.1 +4.7 -8.7
  Nov 14, 2022 125   @ Hofstra L 80-85 22%     1 - 1 +1.0 +9.9 -9.1
  Nov 18, 2022 353   Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-64 91%     2 - 1 -11.8 -11.9 -0.2
  Nov 22, 2022 286   UC San Diego L 70-75 76%     2 - 2 -14.5 -4.7 -10.0
  Nov 26, 2022 323   New Hampshire W 75-54 84%     3 - 2 +8.3 +8.6 +3.0
  Nov 30, 2022 224   South Carolina W 79-55 65%     4 - 2 +18.0 +11.6 +8.2
  Dec 04, 2022 199   @ Radford L 76-86 38%     4 - 3 -8.8 +3.8 -12.6
  Dec 10, 2022 216   American W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 13, 2022 303   Coppin St. W 86-77 80%    
  Dec 22, 2022 64   Washington St. L 68-78 17%    
  Dec 31, 2022 175   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 04, 2023 105   @ Richmond L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 07, 2023 98   Massachusetts L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 14, 2023 57   Saint Louis L 76-84 23%    
  Jan 16, 2023 147   @ George Mason L 69-75 28%    
  Jan 21, 2023 95   Dayton L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 25, 2023 234   Saint Joseph's W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 28, 2023 146   @ Fordham L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 01, 2023 202   @ La Salle L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 04, 2023 137   Duquesne L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 08, 2023 105   Richmond L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 234   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 15, 2023 147   George Mason L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 19, 2023 120   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 22, 2023 203   @ Rhode Island L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 25, 2023 202   La Salle W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2023 135   @ Davidson L 70-77 25%    
  Mar 04, 2023 104   Virginia Commonwealth L 71-74 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.0 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.3 3.1 2.7 0.2 6.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.3 0.9 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.4 2.8 0.1 8.1 10th
11th 0.3 3.3 4.8 0.7 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.1 0.1 9.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 3.6 0.4 11.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 4.1 0.8 0.0 12.2 14th
15th 0.3 1.4 3.3 4.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 13.2 15th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.6 6.7 9.9 12.6 13.9 13.7 12.0 9.7 6.9 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 82.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 59.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 24.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 10.7% 10.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 8.4% 8.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 7.1% 7.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.4% 6.2% 6.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.6% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
11-7 4.4% 3.5% 3.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.2
10-8 6.9% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.7
9-9 9.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5
8-10 12.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.8
7-11 13.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 13.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 12.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.6
4-14 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.9
3-15 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-17 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%