Richmond
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#163
Pace64.8#275
Improvement-2.0#351

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#179
First Shot+3.1#78
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#353
Layup/Dunks-0.1#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#43
Freethrows+0.9#107
Improvement-0.4#257

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#103
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#94
Layups/Dunks+4.0#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#266
Freethrows+1.8#54
Improvement-1.7#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 4.9% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 44.5% 56.1% 24.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 56.1% 24.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.8% 4.5%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.6%
First Round4.3% 4.7% 3.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 36 - 77 - 14
Quad 48 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 335   VMI W 69-48 92%     1 - 0 +7.8 -9.0 +17.8
  Nov 11, 2022 160   Northern Iowa W 68-55 68%     2 - 0 +10.6 -0.8 +12.3
  Nov 14, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 90-92 OT 25%     2 - 1 +7.3 +7.5 +0.1
  Nov 17, 2022 109   Wichita St. L 53-56 56%     2 - 2 -2.1 -9.5 +7.0
  Nov 21, 2022 75   Syracuse L 71-74 OT 33%     2 - 3 +4.0 +3.5 +0.3
  Nov 22, 2022 98   Temple W 61-49 41%     3 - 3 +16.8 +2.7 +16.2
  Nov 30, 2022 104   @ Toledo L 67-90 33%     3 - 4 -16.1 -11.7 -3.3
  Dec 03, 2022 305   @ William & Mary L 57-58 76%     3 - 5 -6.1 -11.0 +4.7
  Dec 10, 2022 84   Drake W 82-52 46%     4 - 5 +33.4 +6.1 +25.1
  Dec 13, 2022 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-48 89%     5 - 5 +18.3 -1.7 +21.4
  Dec 17, 2022 60   Clemson L 57-85 27%     5 - 6 -19.1 -9.9 -9.6
  Dec 21, 2022 295   Bucknell W 81-71 87%     6 - 6 +0.1 +8.1 -7.4
  Dec 28, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 83-65 94%     7 - 6 +3.3 +2.5 +0.9
  Dec 31, 2022 122   @ George Mason L 58-62 38%     7 - 7 0 - 1 +1.4 -4.6 +5.5
  Jan 04, 2023 191   George Washington W 73-63 73%     8 - 7 1 - 1 +6.1 -0.4 +7.1
  Jan 07, 2023 126   Duquesne W 75-73 61%     9 - 7 2 - 1 +1.6 +6.6 -4.8
  Jan 11, 2023 123   @ Davidson W 61-57 39%     10 - 7 3 - 1 +9.4 -3.8 +13.5
  Jan 14, 2023 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-71 44%     10 - 8 3 - 2 -4.1 -5.3 +1.0
  Jan 17, 2023 198   Rhode Island W 64-57 74%     11 - 8 4 - 2 +2.8 -4.9 +8.1
  Jan 20, 2023 74   Virginia Commonwealth L 62-74 42%     11 - 9 4 - 3 -7.6 -6.5 -0.9
  Jan 25, 2023 143   @ Massachusetts L 76-85 43%     11 - 10 4 - 4 -4.7 +7.8 -12.6
  Jan 28, 2023 68   @ Dayton L 60-86 21%     11 - 11 4 - 5 -15.1 -1.5 -15.5
  Feb 01, 2023 147   St. Bonaventure L 62-66 65%     11 - 12 4 - 6 -5.6 -6.6 +0.8
  Feb 05, 2023 132   Fordham W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 191   @ George Washington W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 220   Loyola Chicago W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 15, 2023 230   @ La Salle W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 21, 2023 79   Saint Louis L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 24, 2023 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-69 23%    
  Mar 01, 2023 162   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-69 47%    
  Mar 04, 2023 122   George Mason W 66-64 60%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.0 0.3 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 2.0 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 1.6 6.3 0.6 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 6.4 3.7 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 1.4 9.7 0.8 11.9 7th
8th 0.1 6.3 5.3 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.9 10.2 1.2 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.1 4.6 6.6 0.1 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 7.5 1.5 9.9 11th
12th 0.1 3.0 4.3 0.1 7.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 3.3 0.8 4.9 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 15th
Total 0.3 2.4 8.3 18.3 26.2 24.3 14.5 5.0 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.8% 9.5% 9.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.6
10-8 14.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 13.6
9-9 24.3% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.1 1.0 0.1 23.1
8-10 26.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.4 0.7 25.1
7-11 18.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 17.7
6-12 8.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 8.1
5-13 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.3
4-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.7 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 9.5% 12.7 0.5 3.1 4.9 1.0
Lose Out 0.3% 0.7% 16.0 0.7