Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.5 #123
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #136
Pace 70.0 #170
Improvement -3.9 #348

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #123 B+ A- F C D
Defense #137 C+ B C- C+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #314 1.26 #79 -1.5 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #89 0.79 #130 +2.2 #71
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.19 #19 +4.3 #56
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #63 +5.0 #62
Freethrows 20.6 #48 75% #93 15.5 #30
Second Chance 28.2% #247 0.82 #355 0.23 #328
Turnovers 17.0% #198
Total Offense +1.9 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #355 1.26 #287 +4.9 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #54 0.77 #196 -2.1 #319
Three Pointers 47% #41 0.93 #89 -1.1 #230
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #127 +1.7 #126
Freethrows 15.5 #98 68% #43 10.5 #60
Second Chance 27.5% #80 1.23 #339 0.34 #229
Turnovers 17.5% #131
Total Defense +0.6 #137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #294 -2.9% #23
Shot Type Make Effect 11.9% #32 -0.5% #178
Possession Length 17.0 #153 17.1 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #68 0.16 #150
Improvement -2.1 #317 -1.9 #318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 79.9% 87.7% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 40.4% 51.9% 26.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.1% 7.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 69 - 12
Quad 49 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 275 East Carolina W 87-72 86%     9.6   1 - 0 +5.7 +7.3 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 11 112 William & Mary W 90-86 57%     1.2   2 - 0 +4.7 +9.3 -5.0
  Wed, Nov 19 339 VMI W 87-54 93%     20.5   3 - 0 +18.4 +10.4 +10.0
  Sat, Nov 22 362 Gardner-Webb W 102-67 97%     27.6   4 - 0 +16.1 +13.1 +0.7
  Thu, Nov 27 146 Furman L 72-73 57%     -6.2   4 - 1 -0.2 +0.4 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 28 190 Charlotte W 71-66 67%     8.2   5 - 1 +3.1 +0.4 +3.0
  Wed, Dec 3 77 @Belmont W 84-76 22%     0.0   6 - 1 +18.6 +10.7 +7.5
  Sat, Dec 6 242 Old Dominion W 86-77 83%     3.6   7 - 1 +1.3 +3.1 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 13 130 Southern Illinois W 93-84 OT 64%     1.6   8 - 1 +7.9 +2.4 +3.8
  Wed, Dec 17 169 @Elon L 70-73 51%     1.7   8 - 2 -0.7 -2.4 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 20 358 The Citadel W 80-56 96%     11.1   9 - 2 +6.5 +4.1 +4.4
  Sun, Dec 28 222 Charleston Southern L 72-77 81%     -3.9   9 - 3 -11.7 -6.1 -5.4
  Wed, Dec 31 67 George Washington L 85-99 40%     -10.0   9 - 4 0 - 1 -8.8 +16.3 -26.0
  Sun, Jan 4 185 @Fordham W 69-68 54%    
  Wed, Jan 7 115 @St. Bonaventure L 72-76 36%    
  Sun, Jan 11 192 Saint Joseph's W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 231 La Salle W 77-67 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 33 @Saint Louis L 74-88 10%    
  Wed, Jan 21 127 Rhode Island W 74-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 67 @George Washington L 77-86 21%    
  Tue, Jan 27 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 72-84 14%    
  Sat, Jan 31 143 Davidson W 75-70 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 127 @Rhode Island L 71-74 41%    
  Tue, Feb 10 98 George Mason W 74-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 47 Virginia Commonwealth L 75-81 31%    
  Wed, Feb 18 143 @Davidson L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 115 St. Bonaventure W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 245 @Loyola Chicago W 76-72 65%    
  Tue, Mar 3 74 Dayton L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Mar 7 118 @Duquesne L 78-82 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.9 6.4 1.8 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 6.8 2.6 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 6.2 3.9 0.3 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.9 0.7 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.4 3.1 4.7 1.1 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.3 1.8 3.3 1.4 0.1 6.8 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.1 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.5 8.6 12.5 15.1 16.1 14.8 11.6 7.4 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 60.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 32.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6%
14-4 0.6% 6.6% 6.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.9% 7.4% 7.4% 11.0 0.1 1.8
12-6 3.9% 6.1% 6.1% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-7 7.4% 2.0% 2.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.3
10-8 11.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.3
9-9 14.8% 1.4% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6
8-10 16.1% 0.6% 0.6% 12.5 0.1 0.1 16.0
7-11 15.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 15.0
6-12 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 12.5
5-13 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.8 0.0%