Richmond
Atlantic 10
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#84
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#68
Pace66.9#234
Improvement+0.4#167

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#152
First Shot+5.5#42
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#359
Layup/Dunks+2.7#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#100
Freethrows-3.0#342
Improvement-1.1#245

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#29
First Shot+6.4#21
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#245
Layups/Dunks+8.1#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#196
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement+1.5#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.0% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 62.8% 74.2% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round10.4% 10.8% 9.4%
Second Round2.7% 2.9% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 24 - 25 - 5
Quad 310 - 414 - 8
Quad 48 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 357   VMI W 93-75 98%     1 - 0 -0.3 +7.3 -9.0
  Nov 11, 2023 355   Siena W 90-48 98%     2 - 0 +24.3 +14.5 +11.3
  Nov 15, 2023 92   @ Boston College L 61-68 41%     2 - 1 +1.9 -3.8 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2023 31   Colorado L 59-64 30%     2 - 2 +7.2 -1.3 +7.8
  Nov 21, 2023 76   UNLV W 82-65 48%     3 - 2 +24.1 +19.0 +6.7
  Nov 25, 2023 267   Queens W 90-61 91%     4 - 2 +21.0 +2.6 +15.7
  Nov 29, 2023 148   @ Wichita St. L 68-80 61%     4 - 3 -8.2 +2.0 -10.9
  Dec 02, 2023 318   William & Mary W 88-69 95%     5 - 3 +6.9 +15.5 -7.3
  Dec 06, 2023 123   @ Northern Iowa L 73-78 53%     5 - 4 +0.8 +1.8 -0.9
  Dec 09, 2023 23   Florida L 76-87 26%     5 - 5 +2.3 +1.8 +1.3
  Dec 16, 2023 112   Charlotte W 64-56 70%     6 - 5 +9.3 -3.8 +13.7
  Dec 21, 2023 344   Buffalo W 72-66 97%     7 - 5 -9.4 -12.0 +2.4
  Dec 30, 2023 306   Lafayette W 59-38 94%     8 - 5 +10.3 -14.2 +25.1
  Jan 06, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure W 65-54 61%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +14.7 +2.3 +14.0
  Jan 09, 2024 95   @ Loyola Chicago W 58-56 42%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +10.7 -6.0 +16.7
  Jan 13, 2024 106   George Mason W 77-70 68%     11 - 5 3 - 0 +8.9 +12.6 -3.0
  Jan 16, 2024 113   @ Duquesne W 63-61 50%     12 - 5 4 - 0 +8.7 +3.6 +5.4
  Jan 20, 2024 111   @ Davidson W 69-64 OT 49%     13 - 5 5 - 0 +11.8 -1.3 +12.9
  Jan 24, 2024 225   George Washington W 82-74 88%     14 - 5 6 - 0 +2.0 +1.2 +0.5
  Jan 27, 2024 38   Dayton W 69-64 44%     15 - 5 7 - 0 +13.3 +0.2 +13.3
  Jan 31, 2024 188   @ Fordham W 83-69 70%     16 - 5 8 - 0 +15.2 +12.8 +2.5
  Feb 03, 2024 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 52-63 40%     16 - 6 8 - 1 -1.7 -11.1 +8.8
  Feb 10, 2024 207   La Salle W 82-65 87%     17 - 6 9 - 1 +11.5 +7.5 +4.3
  Feb 14, 2024 97   Massachusetts L 59-69 64%     17 - 7 9 - 2 -7.0 -11.8 +4.5
  Feb 17, 2024 225   @ George Washington W 90-74 76%     18 - 7 10 - 2 +15.4 +17.0 -1.2
  Feb 21, 2024 185   @ Rhode Island W 85-77 70%     19 - 7 11 - 2 +9.3 +10.0 -0.7
  Feb 24, 2024 111   Davidson W 66-63 70%     20 - 7 12 - 2 +4.4 +0.5 +4.1
  Feb 28, 2024 192   @ Saint Louis W 78-72 70%    
  Mar 02, 2024 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-63 62%    
  Mar 06, 2024 119   Saint Joseph's W 74-68 72%    
  Mar 09, 2024 106   @ George Mason L 66-67 46%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 13.0 33.5 16.0 62.8 1st
2nd 0.0 5.5 18.2 2.5 26.3 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.2 1.4 9.6 3rd
4th 1.1 0.3 1.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 2.1 13.4 32.5 36.0 16.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 16.0    14.8 1.2
15-3 93.0% 33.5    13.9 17.9 1.7
14-4 39.8% 13.0    0.9 5.9 5.7 0.4
13-5 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 62.8% 62.8 29.6 25.0 7.6 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 16.0% 14.4% 12.4% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 13.7 2.3%
15-3 36.0% 11.0% 10.9% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 2.0 1.7 0.2 32.0 0.1%
14-4 32.5% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 29.5 0.0%
13-5 13.4% 8.2% 8.2% 12.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 12.3
12-6 2.1% 7.0% 7.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.2% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.2 4.8 4.8 0.7 0.0 89.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.0% 14.4% 11.1 0.0 1.1 10.4 2.9 0.0
Lose Out 2.1% 7.0% 12.4 0.1 4.3 2.1 0.5