Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.6 134
Results Rating +0.0 156
Consistency 0.15 154
Pace 69.5 147
Improvement -4.4 330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 127 C+ D B B D-
Defense C 170 B- D+ C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 353 B- 63% 77 -3.7 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 120 C 38% 189 +2.4 58
Three Pointers 43% 142 B 37% 48 +3.1 78
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 336 B +3.3 78
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 120
Second Chance D 25.0% 324 C 1.02 187 D 0.26 304
Opponents' Steals B 7.9% 38
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 89
Turnovers B 14.4% 47
Freethrows B- 0.34 80 B 77% 38 B 0.26 51
Total Offense C+ +1.6 127

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 204 B- 9.1% 83
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 197 B 3.2% 57
Three Pointers B- 88% 94 C- 1.2% 265
Total C 56% 163 B+ 4.1% 29


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 346 D+ 61% 250 -4.0 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 56 C 38% 185 +1.8 316
Three Pointers 45% 69 B 31% 65 +0.2 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 29 C+ -1.0 141
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 114
Second Chance C 30.0% 171 D- 1.16 336 D+ 0.35 277
Turnovers from Steals C 9.5% 185
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 165
Turnovers C 16.8% 171
Freethrows C 0.30 173 B- 71% 84 C+ 0.21 145
Total Defense C +0.0 170

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 37 D 6.9% 325
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 96 D+ 3.6% 251
Three Pointers B- 80% 79 B 1.6% 57
Total B 49% 52 D 3.7% 323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 150 17.3 181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 71 0.16 153
Consistency 0.11 109 0.13 206
Improvement -2.7 309 -1.7 268

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 152 135 118
Results Rating Rank 194 156 132
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 12 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.9
.500 or above 51% 85% 30%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 42 - 7
Quad 38 - 79 - 13
Quad 47 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 232 East Carolina W 87 - 72 79% +10  78% 1 - 0 B- +8 B- +5 B+ F B B- +2 C+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 138 William & Mary W 90 - 86 63% +1  64% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +5 F A+ C C- -3 A- D F
 Wed, Nov 19 358 VMI W 87 - 54 96% +21  99% 3 - 0 B+ +14 B- +5 A- D- C+ A +11 C+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 362 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 97% +28  97% 4 - 0 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ C B+ B- +2 D- B- B+
 Thu, Nov 27 184 Furman L 72 - 73 63% -6  3% 4 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 B F+ F C -1 C- F A-
 Fri, Nov 28 166 Charlotte W 71 - 66 58% +8  96% 5 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 B- D- D A- +8 A- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 67 @Belmont W 84 - 76 17% -0  53% 6 - 1 A +20 B +7 A+ F B- A+ +12 A+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 6 241 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 80% +4  83% 7 - 1 C +2 C +1 D+ B- A+ C +0 B+ B F
 Sat, Dec 13 120 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 57% +2  64% 8 - 1 B +9 B- +4 A F A B- +3 A F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 234 @Elon L 70 - 73 60% +2  63% 8 - 2 C- -4 D -5 B C+ F C+ +1 D- A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 345 The Citadel W 80 - 56 94% +11  98% 9 - 2 B +8 C+ +3 B+ F B+ A- +7 C- C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 251 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 82% -4  11% 9 - 3 D- -13 F+ -10 C- F C- D+ -3 B+ D C-
 Wed, Dec 31 80 George Washington L 85 - 99 39% -10  0% 9 - 4 0 - 1 D -9 A+ +15 A+ C- A+ F -25 F F D
 Sun, Jan 4 157 @Fordham W 83 - 75 45% +2  66% 10 - 4 1 - 1 B +11 A+ +20 A B- A+ F+ -9 D+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 137 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 40% +7  93% 11 - 4 2 - 1 B+ +13 A +13 B- B+ B+ C+ +0 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 115 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 67 56% -8  0% 11 - 5 2 - 2 C- -2 D -6 D- D- A+ B +4 C+ B- D+
 Wed, Jan 14 208 La Salle W 74 - 53 76% +8  94% 12 - 5 3 - 2 A- +15 C+ +3 B F A+ A+ +14 A A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 24 @Saint Louis L 63 - 88 6% -19  0% 12 - 6 3 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 F+ B+ B- D+ -4 B B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 136 Rhode Island L 68 - 69 62% +2  72% 12 - 7 3 - 4 C- -2 D -4 B F+ B B- +2 A- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 80 @George Washington L 69 - 85 20% -16  0% 12 - 8 3 - 5 D+ -5 C- -1 D+ D- B- D -5 C+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 27 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 77 12% -8  0% 12 - 9 3 - 6 B- +6 A- +10 C A+ B D+ -5 C B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 108 Davidson L 54 - 79 54% -17  0% 12 - 10 3 - 7 F -24 F+ -9 F A C+ F -21 F+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 136 @Rhode Island L 77 - 82 39% +0  44% 12 - 11 3 - 8 C -0 B+ +9 B+ F A- F+ -9 B F D-
 Tue, Feb 10 105 George Mason W 82 - 70 52% +17  96% 13 - 11 4 - 8 B+ +13 B +6 A- D B- B+ +7 A+ F A
 Sat, Feb 14 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 67 - 78 26% -10  0% 13 - 12 4 - 9 C- -3 D -6 F D- A+ B- +3 B- A C+
 Wed, Feb 18 108 @Davidson L 63 - 65 31% -6  13% 13 - 13 4 - 10 C+ +5 C- -2 D D- A+ B+ +6 A+ F C
 Sat, Feb 21 137 St. Bonaventure W 99 - 94 63% +0  43% 14 - 13 5 - 10 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ C+ A F -12 F+ B- D-
 Sat, Feb 28 280 @Loyola Chicago L 66 - 69 69% -7  3% 14 - 14 5 - 11 D+ -7 F -12 F F A+ B+ +6 F+ A- B+
 Tue, Mar 3 77 Dayton L 72 - 75 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 119 @Duquesne L 76 - 80 34%
Totals 15 - 15 6 - 12 +2 C+ +2 D- B D- C +0 B B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C B B 30% 42% 43% D- C+ D C D B B- B B C D+ C B C+ 30% 25% 45% B+ B- C D- D+ C C B- C+
1.11 63% 38% 37% +3 -1 1.06 25% 1.0 .26 14% .34 77% .26 1.09 61% 38% 31% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.2 .35 17% .30 71% .24
Nov
8		 East Carolina B- A+ A+ F B+ 37% 18% 45% B- B+ F B F B A+ A- A+ B- D F+ A+ C 28% 32% 40% A- C+ A+ F B- C F C- F
1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46 0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36
Nov
11		 William & Mary B- F A F F 33% 8% 59% B- F A+ B A+ C A+ A- A+ C- F+ D+ A- B 17% 21% 62% A+ A- B F D F F D- F
1.16 47% 50% 27% -9 +1 0.86 45% 1.1 .51 19% .74 76% .56 1.11 70% 42% 28% -3 -2 0.93 23% 1.6 .35 9% .44 81% .36
Nov
19		 VMI B- C A+ A+ A 30% 26% 44% D- A- F+ C- D- C+ D- F F+ A C F A C+ 26% 9% 65% C- C+ C F D- A+ F A+ C
1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16 0.82 55% 50% 25% -9 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20
Nov
22		 Gardner-Webb A- A+ F+ A+ A 32% 29% 39% F B+ B- D C B+ C- C- C- B- F A+ F F 11% 36% 53% A+ D- B C- B- B+ A- B A-
1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -2 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20 0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12
Nov
27		 Furman C- B- D- C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B+ B A- F F+ F A A+ A+ C F C B- D- 26% 26% 49% A+ C- F+ F F A- F A+ B-
1.04 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 39% 0.5 .19 25% .33 88% .29 1.06 83% 42% 30% +5 -2 1.09 35% 1.3 .44 23% .40 43% .17
Nov
28		 Charlotte D+ C+ C+ B B- 36% 19% 45% C B- C F D- D A+ F A+ A- F D+ A+ A- 33% 11% 56% C A- A+ D+ A+ F F B+ D-
1.08 60% 38% 37% +2 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 17% .62 59% .37 1.00 73% 40% 24% -3 +1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 14% .42 67% .28
Dec
3		 Belmont B C- C A+ A+ 25% 33% 42% F A+ F C- F B- B+ B+ A- A+ D+ A+ A A+ 38% 5% 56% D+ A+ B- F D- B B+ A+ A+
1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26 1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12
Dec
6		 Old Dominion C B- F D+ C- 49% 28% 23% C- D+ D+ A+ B- A+ A- F C+ C D- B A+ A- 30% 27% 43% C+ B+ D+ A+ B F C F+ D+
1.14 64% 25% 31% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 9% .41 64% .26 1.02 67% 31% 23% -6 -1 0.87 28% 0.8 .23 9% .29 80% .23
Dec
13		 Southern Illinois B- A+ A+ C- A+ 30% 30% 41% D- A F A+ F A A B A B- A- B- C+ B 27% 51% 22% A+ A F+ F F A+ F F F
1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27 0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31
Dec
17		 Elon D D- B- A+ B+ 22% 26% 52% F+ B B D- C+ F F+ A+ C C+ C F F F+ 43% 12% 45% C+ D- C- A+ A+ B+ C B- C+
1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22 1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21
Dec
20		 The Citadel C+ A+ A+ D A 24% 22% 55% F B+ D F F B+ B+ C- B A- A- F C+ C- 31% 23% 46% B C- C B- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23 0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08
Dec
28		 Charleston Southern F+ F+ F+ A+ C 29% 39% 31% F C- D F F C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ A B+ 31% 11% 58% B- B+ F C+ D C- F C+ F
1.00 47% 30% 44% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.2 .05 12% .46 86% .39 1.06 71% 17% 28% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.9 .31 18% .39 65% .25
Dec
31		 George Washington A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 32% 22% 46% D+ A+ B F C- A+ A A+ A+ F D+ F F F 34% 8% 58% B F C+ F F D B F D+
1.30 69% 36% 48% +13 -1 1.26 33% 0.8 .27 12% .36 81% .30 1.51 65% 100% 48% +20 +1 1.44 36% 1.9 .68 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
4		 Fordham A+ A- F A+ A+ 24% 44% 32% F A D A+ B- A+ B A+ A- F+ F+ F A+ F+ 27% 36% 38% A+ D+ F B F A- F B F
1.30 67% 23% 69% +12 -4 1.18 22% 1.4 .31 8% .31 78% .24 1.17 67% 56% 24% +3 -3 1.02 51% 0.9 .46 22% .48 67% .32
Jan
7		 St. Bonaventure A A+ D+ C B 35% 29% 35% D- B- B- B+ B+ B+ A+ C A+ C+ A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% F+ A+ B- F F F B+ A+ A
1.28 76% 36% 35% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 14% .50 77% .39 1.15 46% 60% 25% -7 +1 0.90 33% 1.6 .53 10% .21 62% .13
Jan
11		 Saint Joseph's D F F+ B+ C 9% 49% 42% F D- F C+ D- A+ B D+ B- B F A+ A- C+ 36% 18% 46% B C+ A F B- D+ A+ A+ A+
0.93 40% 29% 38% -4 -6 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 10% .26 69% .18 0.96 70% 20% 27% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 16% .10 50% .05
Jan
14		 La Salle C+ F A+ A+ A- 30% 35% 35% F B F B- F A+ D+ B C- A+ A B- A B+ 16% 42% 42% A+ A A+ A A+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 44% 58% 42% +7 -3 1.11 16% 1.2 .19 9% .23 71% .17 0.80 44% 35% 26% -9 -4 0.76 20% 0.8 .15 14% .16 56% .09
Jan
17		 Saint Louis D+ C+ F F D+ 17% 48% 35% F F+ D A+ B+ B- B A A- D+ F F B+ C+ 33% 15% 52% A+ B D+ A B D- F D F
0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29 1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30
Jan
21		 Rhode Island D B- B B+ A- 31% 21% 48% D B F C F+ B C- F F+ B- C C+ A+ A 48% 17% 35% D+ A- F B- D+ B F D F
0.99 60% 40% 39% +5 -1 1.10 20% 1.0 .20 19% .34 58% .20 1.00 59% 38% 19% -8 +1 0.89 39% 0.9 .33 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
24		 George Washington C- F+ C A- C- 41% 26% 33% D+ D+ B F D- B- D+ A+ A- D C A+ F+ C+ 37% 7% 56% B- C+ B- F F D+ B F+ B-
1.03 50% 36% 39% -1 -1 0.98 32% 0.7 .22 16% .25 100% .25 1.27 60% 0% 40% +3 +2 1.11 34% 1.5 .53 16% .27 80% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Virginia Commonwealth A- D+ A- D B- 30% 43% 28% F C A- A+ A+ B D+ C D+ D+ A F F C 37% 10% 54% C C D A B- F+ F F F
1.14 50% 45% 31% -1 -3 0.94 38% 1.4 .53 15% .27 71% .19 1.27 47% 50% 41% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.9 .35 12% .50 81% .41
Jan
31		 Davidson F+ B F F F 19% 26% 55% D- F C A+ A C+ B- B- B- F D+ C F F 27% 35% 39% A+ F+ F F F D+ A+ A+ A+
0.94 63% 27% 22% -12 -2 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 17% .34 69% .23 1.37 62% 41% 53% +13 -3 1.22 50% 1.3 .64 16% .08 50% .04
Feb
7		 Rhode Island B+ F A+ A+ A 21% 30% 49% F B+ F+ F F A- F A+ D+ F+ B- A+ B- B+ 43% 19% 38% C+ B D F F D- F F F
1.13 45% 50% 42% +7 -2 1.11 23% 0.7 .16 18% .27 87% .23 1.21 56% 25% 31% -5 +1 0.93 35% 1.5 .52 16% .74 81% .60
Feb
10		 George Mason B A+ F A- A 28% 15% 57% B- A- F+ B- D B- A A+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% D A+ F D F A F A- F
1.17 73% 25% 39% +6 0 1.15 19% 1.0 .19 14% .32 84% .27 1.00 63% 25% 19% -9 +1 0.86 38% 1.1 .41 21% .54 67% .36
Feb
14		 Virginia Commonwealth D C F F F 38% 21% 42% C- F F A D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A- F C C- 15% 23% 62% A+ B- A B+ A C+ B- F+ C-
0.96 55% 18% 23% -12 0 0.77 16% 1.2 .19 11% .44 89% .39 1.12 50% 58% 34% +4 -2 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .36 81% .29
Feb
18		 Davidson C- D- F+ B- D+ 26% 36% 38% F D F A+ D- A+ F+ F F B+ C A+ A+ A+ 28% 19% 53% C+ A+ D F F C F B+ F
0.99 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 14% 1.6 .22 6% .23 57% .13 1.02 58% 25% 26% -9 0 0.84 34% 1.4 .47 17% .44 61% .27
Feb
21		 St. Bonaventure A+ A+ A+ A A+ 29% 20% 51% D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A A+ C- A+ F F C+ F F 21% 36% 43% A+ F+ B+ C B- D- C+ C+ C+
1.35 80% 60% 42% +17 -1 1.35 21% 1.5 .32 12% .43 75% .33 1.28 83% 40% 46% +14 -3 1.23 30% 1.0 .30 14% .25 75% .19
Feb
28		 Loyola Chicago F D F F F 28% 20% 52% C- F F A- F A+ A+ D- A+ B+ D- F B- F+ 49% 12% 39% D+ F+ A+ F A- B+ F C+ F
0.92 50% 10% 27% -13 -1 0.74 11% 1.3 .13 7% .49 73% .36 0.96 65% 60% 31% +4 +2 1.15 16% 1.3 .20 22% .54 67% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 1.6 1.6 9th
10th 10.8 10.5 21.3 10th
11th 32.8 34.2 1.6 68.6 11th
12th 8.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.4 0.4 13th
14th 14th
Total 41.2 45.0 13.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 13.8% 0.7% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 13.7
6-12 45.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 44.8
5-13 41.2% 0.2% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.4 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 16.7%