Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#99
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#45
Pace72.5#87
Improvement+0.1#85

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot+1.8#116
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#187
Layup/Dunks+4.8#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#269
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement-0.3#305

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#78
First Shot+7.0#26
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#344
Layups/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#85
Freethrows+1.3#109
Improvement+0.4#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 19.6% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.3% 10.8% 3.4%
Average Seed 11.0 10.7 11.6
.500 or above 94.0% 97.4% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 83.6% 72.6%
Conference Champion 14.0% 17.1% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four3.6% 4.9% 2.0%
First Round13.0% 16.8% 8.5%
Second Round3.6% 5.1% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 34 - 4
Quad 310 - 513 - 9
Quad 47 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 342   Central Connecticut St. W 94-67 96%     1 - 0 +11.6 +9.4 +1.0
  Nov 10, 2022 118   Towson L 55-67 66%     1 - 1 -11.3 -12.7 +0.3
  Nov 17, 2022 44   Colorado W 66-63 31%     2 - 1 +13.1 -4.2 +17.1
  Nov 18, 2022 98   Murray St. W 71-69 50%     3 - 1 +7.0 -0.8 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2022 124   Charlotte W 60-54 57%     4 - 1 +9.2 -1.0 +11.1
  Nov 29, 2022 187   @ South Florida W 73-67 61%     5 - 1 +8.2 -1.6 +9.4
  Dec 02, 2022 153   @ Harvard W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 05, 2022 326   Albany W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 08, 2022 142   Umass Lowell W 75-69 71%    
  Dec 11, 2022 131   Hofstra W 76-74 59%    
  Dec 17, 2022 82   North Texas L 59-61 44%    
  Dec 20, 2022 318   Dartmouth W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 31, 2022 108   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 04, 2023 46   Saint Louis L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 07, 2023 194   @ George Washington W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 11, 2023 220   La Salle W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 14, 2023 180   Rhode Island W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 17, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 21, 2023 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 25, 2023 100   Richmond W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 28, 2023 130   Duquesne W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2023 158   @ George Mason W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 116   Davidson W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2023 177   @ Fordham W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 220   @ La Salle W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 14, 2023 171   Loyola Chicago W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 18, 2023 180   @ Rhode Island W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 22, 2023 74   Dayton W 63-62 52%    
  Mar 01, 2023 130   @ Duquesne L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 04, 2023 108   St. Bonaventure W 70-66 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 4.0 2.7 0.9 0.2 14.0 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 5.4 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 5.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.5 1.2 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.0 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.3 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.8 5.8 8.2 10.7 12.7 13.5 13.1 11.2 8.1 5.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.7    2.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 79.0% 4.0    2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.5% 3.9    1.5 1.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 17.6% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 7.9 4.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 83.7% 30.2% 53.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 76.7%
16-2 2.9% 71.3% 22.1% 49.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 63.2%
15-3 5.0% 51.7% 16.8% 34.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 41.9%
14-4 8.1% 31.9% 13.4% 18.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.5 21.4%
13-5 11.2% 20.2% 12.2% 7.9% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.0 9.0%
12-6 13.1% 12.1% 9.0% 3.1% 11.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.6 3.4%
11-7 13.5% 8.7% 8.1% 0.6% 12.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 12.4 0.7%
10-8 12.7% 5.9% 5.7% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.0 0.2%
9-9 10.7% 3.4% 3.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4
8-10 8.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
7-11 5.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 8.3% 6.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 4.3 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 85.0 7.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 11.1 5.6 41.7 27.8 13.9