Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#97
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#124
Pace71.9#87
Improvement-1.7#267

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#84
First Shot+1.9#126
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#59
Layup/Dunks+3.9#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#280
Freethrows+1.4#76
Improvement-1.8#286

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#125
First Shot+2.5#97
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#253
Layups/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-1.8#298
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 8.4% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 100.0% 89.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.1% 8.4% 7.2%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 69 - 10
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 279   Albany W 92-71 91%     1 - 0 +12.2 +4.8 +5.4
  Nov 13, 2023 198   Quinnipiac W 102-81 85%     2 - 0 +15.8 +19.6 -5.3
  Nov 17, 2023 212   Harvard L 75-78 OT 86%     2 - 1 -8.7 -5.9 -2.5
  Nov 22, 2023 275   Central Connecticut St. W 89-60 90%     3 - 1 +20.8 +17.8 +4.3
  Dec 02, 2023 102   South Florida W 66-56 63%     4 - 1 +12.5 -9.7 +21.4
  Dec 06, 2023 157   @ Towson L 71-81 61%     4 - 2 -7.0 +6.3 -14.0
  Dec 09, 2023 159   Umass Lowell W 91-77 78%     5 - 2 +11.5 +6.7 +3.4
  Dec 16, 2023 122   West Virginia W 87-79 60%     6 - 2 +11.1 +7.9 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2023 126   Georgia Tech L 70-73 62%     6 - 3 -0.4 -3.6 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2023 301   Portland W 100-78 89%     7 - 3 +14.3 +19.7 -5.9
  Dec 24, 2023 271   Old Dominion W 87-65 85%     8 - 3 +16.6 +8.1 +7.1
  Dec 30, 2023 355   Siena W 79-66 97%     9 - 3 -4.7 +0.7 -5.3
  Jan 03, 2024 113   Duquesne W 80-61 67%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +20.2 +9.3 +10.9
  Jan 07, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 60-64 22%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +9.8 +0.0 +9.3
  Jan 10, 2024 207   La Salle W 81-65 85%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +10.5 +5.7 +5.0
  Jan 13, 2024 185   @ Rhode Island L 77-89 67%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -10.7 +7.0 -18.3
  Jan 17, 2024 95   @ Loyola Chicago L 78-79 39%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +7.7 +15.3 -7.7
  Jan 20, 2024 225   George Washington W 81-67 86%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +8.0 +1.9 +5.9
  Jan 23, 2024 119   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 69%     12 - 7 3 - 4 -0.4 -3.1 +2.7
  Jan 27, 2024 192   @ Saint Louis W 84-73 68%     13 - 7 4 - 4 +11.9 +13.1 -0.6
  Feb 03, 2024 106   George Mason W 66-65 65%     14 - 7 5 - 4 +2.9 -1.2 +4.1
  Feb 07, 2024 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 73-79 37%     14 - 8 5 - 5 +3.2 +7.5 -4.5
  Feb 11, 2024 185   Rhode Island W 81-79 82%     15 - 8 6 - 5 -2.1 +2.7 -4.9
  Feb 14, 2024 84   @ Richmond W 69-59 36%     16 - 8 7 - 5 +19.4 +5.2 +14.5
  Feb 17, 2024 207   @ La Salle L 81-82 71%     16 - 9 7 - 6 -1.0 +7.5 -8.6
  Feb 20, 2024 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-52 58%     17 - 9 8 - 6 +25.8 +11.3 +16.4
  Feb 24, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure L 67-75 58%     17 - 10 8 - 7 -4.3 -0.8 -3.9
  Feb 27, 2024 225   @ George Washington W 84-78 72%    
  Mar 02, 2024 111   @ Davidson L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 06, 2024 188   Fordham W 81-71 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.6 11.4 4th
5th 1.3 23.0 18.3 42.6 5th
6th 0.0 7.9 19.1 27.1 6th
7th 0.7 10.0 3.2 13.8 7th
8th 1.5 2.7 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.7 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 2.9 22.0 47.2 27.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 27.9% 9.5% 9.5% 12.3 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 25.3
10-8 47.2% 8.1% 8.1% 12.7 0.1 1.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 43.4
9-9 22.0% 6.4% 6.4% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 20.5
8-10 2.9% 5.5% 5.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 12.6 0.3 3.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 27.9% 9.5% 12.3 0.7 5.9 2.9 0.2
Lose Out 2.9% 5.5% 13.9 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.0