Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #176
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #186
Pace 75.2 #35
Improvement -1.3 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #172 C B D+ C+ C
Defense #201 C- C+ C D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.18 #148 +1.9 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #122 0.76 #171 +0.9 #121
Three Pointers 36% #288 0.99 #214 -3.0 #289
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.2 #185
Freethrows 0.34 #67 68% #316 0.23 #135
Second Chance 31.9% #147 1.18 #28 0.38 #57
Turnovers 18.8% #297
Total Offense -0.3 #172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #155 1.26 #311 -2.8 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.81 #262 +0.8 #125
Three Pointers 43% #123 0.95 #87 +0.4 #162
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #231 -1.6 #231
Freethrows 0.38 #339 72% #140 0.27 #330
Second Chance 27.6% #73 1.08 #262 0.30 #144
Turnovers 17.5% #146
Total Defense -0.8 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #207 1.0% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #179 2.1% #223
Possession Length 16.4 #87 16.7 #75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #135 0.22 #331
Improvement +4.2 #24 -5.5 #361

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.1% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 96.8% 100.0% 93.4%
.500 or above in Conference 56.9% 59.4% 54.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.7% 3.1% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 412 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 156 Marshall L 72 - 78 58% -5  0 - 1 -9 -13 C F F +5 D- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 317 Albany W 83 - 62 86% +7  1 - 1 +9 -1 F A+ D- +8 A C- A
 Thu, Nov 13 296 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 82% +11  2 - 1 +3 +8 A B D- -6 C+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 299 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 83% +12  3 - 1 -4 -4 D- A+ F -1 C C C
 Fri, Nov 21 151 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 44% +1  3 - 2 -4 -5 B- B- F +2 B+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 250 Green Bay L 75 - 79 65% -4  3 - 3 -9 -2 F A+ D+ -8 C- B- F+
 Mon, Nov 24 177 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 50% +2  4 - 3 +7 +4 D A+ C- +4 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 163 Harvard W 78 - 71 59% +10  5 - 3 +4 +0 A F F+ +3 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 325 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 87% +8  6 - 3 +7 -6 D+ D- F+ +11 C+ B A
 Wed, Dec 10 125 Boston College W 76 - 74 37% +3  7 - 3 +4 +8 C- A+ F -4 A C+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 100 Florida St. W 103 - 95 29% +5  8 - 3 +13 +18 A A+ B+ -6 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 139 Kent St. L 59 - 69 52% -5  8 - 4 0 - 1 -12 -16 F F+ F+ +4 C+ B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 30 230 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 49% -2  8 - 5 0 - 2 -7 +0 F C+ A+ -7 C C F
 Sat, Jan 3 147 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 54% -0  8 - 6 0 - 3 -3 +8 A+ C+ D+ -11 D- B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 193 @Ohio L 83 - 86 42% -3  8 - 7 0 - 4 -2 +6 B- F C -8 F B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 305 Ball St. W 79 - 71 83% +3  9 - 7 1 - 4 -3 +3 A- F C+ -7 D- C D+
 Tue, Jan 13 280 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 60% +4  10 - 7 2 - 4 -1 +11 C- A+ C- -12 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 310 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 68% -3  10 - 8 2 - 5 -8 -8 F D F +1 B B D-
 Tue, Jan 20 161 Toledo W 84 - 82 58% +2  11 - 8 3 - 5 -1 +6 B B+ C- -8 D- C+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 196 @Buffalo W 68 - 67 43% +7  12 - 8 4 - 5 +2 -4 F+ B- D +5 C C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 27 92 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 86 17% +3  12 - 9 4 - 6 +7 +17 B A+ B+ -10 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 31 230 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 67 71% +4  13 - 9 5 - 6 -4 +1 D+ C A+ -5 D+ B B+
 Tue, Feb 3 292 Central Michigan W 95 - 89 81% -1  14 - 9 6 - 6 -4 +17 A+ B+ B+ -21 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 240 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 63 @Akron L 78 - 91 11%
 Tue, Feb 17 92 Miami (OH) L 81 - 85 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 Buffalo W 82 - 78 66%
 Tue, Feb 24 305 @Ball St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @Bowling Green L 75 - 80 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 193 Ohio W 83 - 79 64%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 -1 +0 C B D+ -1 C- C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 3rd
4th 1.6 8.2 4.0 0.5 14.4 4th
5th 0.6 10.8 9.3 0.7 21.3 5th
6th 0.1 6.5 14.2 1.7 0.0 22.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.9 16.0 4.7 0.1 23.7 7th
8th 0.5 7.4 5.1 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 1.3 2.0 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.5 0.2 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.4 12.5 28.2 31.4 19.5 5.3 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.7% 7.1% 7.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 5.3% 6.4% 6.4% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.0
10-8 19.5% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 18.8
9-9 31.4% 2.9% 2.9% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 30.5
8-10 28.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 27.7
7-11 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4
6-12 2.4% 2.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.1 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%