St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #142
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 #128
Pace 66.1 #255
Improvement -4.3 #335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #98 C+ C+ C+ D+ C-
Defense #230 C- C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.14 #195 +0.8 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #80 0.81 #106 +3.0 #49
Three Pointers 34% #320 1.12 #53 -1.9 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #131 +1.8 #126
Freethrows 0.25 #315 76% #48 0.19 #269
Second Chance 34.5% #70 1.04 #192 0.36 #95
Turnovers 15.6% #122
Total Offense +2.8 #98

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.18 #202 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.72 #112 -0.9 #251
Three Pointers 39% #238 1.12 #314 -1.1 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #242 -2.6 #269
Freethrows 0.28 #118 78% #361 0.22 #199
Second Chance 29.4% #132 1.11 #274 0.33 #197
Turnovers 16.3% #181
Total Defense -1.6 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #260 -0.3% #141
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #110 3.9% #258
Possession Length 17.6 #195 18.0 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #66 0.18 #208
Improvement +0.5 #152 -4.8 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.6
.500 or above 75.7% 90.0% 65.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.6% 15.9% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.3% 6.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Home) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 13
Quad 48 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 127 Bradley W 69 - 63 47% +4  1 - 0 +8 +1 D+ C C +7 D A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 343 Canisius W 89 - 70 92% +7  2 - 0 +4 +20 C A+ B- -14 F B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 172 Siena W 75 - 66 69% -1  3 - 0 +5 +7 C A+ D- -1 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 224 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 77% -5  4 - 0 -3 +8 A- C F -11 C- F C
 Thu, Nov 20 206 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 75% +4  5 - 0 +8 -1 C C- F +9 A+ B B+
 Tue, Nov 25 28 North Carolina L 70 - 85 11% -11  5 - 1 -0 +1 C+ C B -1 C C- A
 Thu, Nov 27 257 East Carolina W 67 - 58 74% +2  6 - 1 +4 -7 D D+ D- +10 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 107 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 28% +2  7 - 1 +12 +6 A+ F+ C- +6 A+ C- B
 Sat, Dec 6 187 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 50% +7  8 - 1 +9 +5 C+ B+ F +4 D+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 214 Colgate W 85 - 77 76% -3  9 - 1 +2 +8 C+ B- D- -6 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 215 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 67% -3  9 - 2 -8 +1 D+ A- D -9 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 284 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 85% +1  10 - 2 +1 +16 A- B B+ -15 C F D
 Wed, Dec 31 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 13% -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +6 +17 B+ B+ B -10 D+ C- D-
 Wed, Jan 7 117 Richmond L 80 - 89 55% -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -9 +7 D+ A+ A+ -16 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 193 Fordham L 77 - 81 73% -2  10 - 5 0 - 3 -9 +8 B+ A+ D- -17 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 139 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 38% -4  10 - 6 0 - 4 +0 -1 F C- C +1 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 208 @La Salle L 74 - 78 54% -2  10 - 7 0 - 5 -4 +10 A+ F C- -14 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 282 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 85% -3  11 - 7 1 - 5 +4 +7 D+ D+ A+ -3 F A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 26 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 15% -25  11 - 8 1 - 6 -23 -5 C- D- C -18 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 121 @Duquesne W 87 - 79 34% -2  12 - 8 2 - 6 +14 +17 A C+ A+ -3 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 86 George Mason L 71 - 73 42%
 Tue, Feb 3 84 @Dayton L 68 - 77 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 193 @Fordham W 70 - 69 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 121 Duquesne W 79 - 77 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 139 Saint Joseph's W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 117 @Richmond L 73 - 78 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 109 Rhode Island W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 86 @George Mason L 68 - 76 21%
 Wed, Mar 4 65 @George Washington L 75 - 85 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 129 Davidson W 72 - 69 59%
Totals 16 - 14 6 - 12 +1 +3 C+ C+ C+ -2 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 2.4 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 5.4 0.9 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.8 7.5 3.7 0.1 12.0 9th
10th 0.6 6.5 9.1 0.5 16.6 10th
11th 0.4 4.7 10.0 2.6 0.1 17.7 11th
12th 0.2 4.0 9.6 4.5 0.3 18.6 12th
13th 0.5 3.4 7.5 3.9 0.4 15.7 13th
14th 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.8 4.0 12.1 18.8 22.2 20.9 12.5 6.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 10.5% 10.5% 12.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
8-10 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 12.5
7-11 20.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8
6-12 22.2% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 22.2
5-13 18.8% 0.2% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7
4-14 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 12.1
3-15 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.5 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%