St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#39
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#46
Pace62.8#323
Improvement-1.4#281

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#42
First Shot+6.1#28
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#217
Layup/Dunks+1.4#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#199
Freethrows+2.2#53
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#49
First Shot+4.0#61
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#103
Layups/Dunks+5.7#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#322
Freethrows+2.3#50
Improvement-1.5#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.4% 6.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 13.8% 13.9% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.4% 62.8% 41.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.6% 48.0% 23.6%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 10.0
.500 or above 99.2% 99.3% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 96.9% 88.9%
Conference Champion 42.9% 43.1% 28.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 8.0% 8.6%
First Round58.7% 59.0% 34.1%
Second Round30.6% 30.7% 18.6%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 10.9% 3.2%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.0% 0.1%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 26 - 38 - 5
Quad 38 - 216 - 7
Quad 48 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 275   Siena W 75-47 96%     1 - 0 +18.8 +8.0 +14.5
  Nov 14, 2021 284   Canisius W 69-60 96%     2 - 0 -0.5 -10.9 +10.2
  Nov 18, 2021 79   Boise St. W 67-61 65%     3 - 0 +12.8 +9.2 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2021 50   Clemson W 68-65 57%     4 - 0 +11.9 +9.2 +3.2
  Nov 21, 2021 62   Marquette W 70-54 62%     5 - 0 +23.6 -1.5 +24.3
  Nov 27, 2021 112   Northern Iowa L 80-90 83%     5 - 1 -9.4 +3.0 -12.1
  Dec 01, 2021 307   Coppin St. W 80-58 99%    
  Dec 04, 2021 72   Buffalo W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 08, 2021 287   Loyola Maryland W 75-55 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 26   Connecticut L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 17, 2021 27   Virginia Tech L 63-65 41%    
  Dec 22, 2021 148   @ Northeastern W 64-58 72%    
  Dec 30, 2021 262   @ George Washington W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 02, 2022 113   @ Dayton W 66-62 66%    
  Jan 05, 2022 246   Fordham W 73-55 95%    
  Jan 08, 2022 56   Saint Louis W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 11, 2022 244   @ La Salle W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 14, 2022 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-56 73%    
  Jan 21, 2022 194   @ Duquesne W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 26, 2022 115   @ George Mason W 69-65 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 220   Saint Joseph's W 80-64 92%    
  Feb 01, 2022 73   Davidson W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 04, 2022 83   @ Richmond W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 11, 2022 56   @ Saint Louis L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 16, 2022 116   Massachusetts W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 194   Duquesne W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 22, 2022 78   Rhode Island W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 220   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-67 82%    
  Mar 01, 2022 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 60-59 55%    
  Mar 04, 2022 83   Richmond W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 7.3 12.5 12.1 6.4 2.2 42.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.3 7.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 4.7 4.6 1.8 0.2 12.1 3rd
4th 0.4 2.8 3.7 1.1 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.4 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.2 0.2 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.6 8.2 12.0 14.1 16.8 15.6 12.6 6.5 2.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-1 99.7% 6.4    6.3 0.2
16-2 96.6% 12.1    10.6 1.5 0.0
15-3 79.8% 12.5    8.2 3.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 43.6% 7.3    2.5 3.2 1.4 0.3
13-5 14.8% 2.1    0.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.9% 42.9 30.1 9.4 2.7 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.2% 99.1% 60.2% 38.9% 3.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
17-1 6.5% 98.0% 46.8% 51.2% 5.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 96.3%
16-2 12.6% 95.5% 44.5% 51.0% 7.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 91.9%
15-3 15.6% 87.4% 32.9% 54.5% 8.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 2.0 81.2%
14-4 16.8% 74.0% 31.0% 43.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 2.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 4.4 62.4%
13-5 14.1% 55.6% 25.8% 29.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.9 3.3 1.4 0.0 6.3 40.1%
12-6 12.0% 37.5% 18.2% 19.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 23.6%
11-7 8.2% 29.6% 17.1% 12.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 5.8 15.1%
10-8 5.6% 13.4% 9.6% 3.8% 11.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 4.9 4.2%
9-9 3.2% 6.1% 4.8% 1.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.0 1.3%
8-10 1.8% 5.8% 5.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 62.4% 28.3% 34.1% 8.6 0.6 0.8 1.9 3.2 3.4 3.9 5.1 6.1 8.9 10.7 12.7 4.8 0.4 0.0 37.6 47.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 55.2 24.1 20.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 68.8 31.3