St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#162
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#191
Pace65.0#274
Improvement-0.4#243

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#214
First Shot-3.6#295
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#31
Layup/Dunks-2.6#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#201
Freethrows-1.4#284
Improvement-0.2#225

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#118
First Shot+1.9#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#210
Layups/Dunks-1.7#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#22
Freethrows-3.1#346
Improvement-0.2#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.1% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 20.8% 44.0% 16.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 69.4% 36.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.1% 2.1%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round2.0% 2.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 16.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 88 - 13
Quad 46 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 319   St. Francis (PA) W 71-58 87%     1 - 0 +1.6 -1.9 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2022 274   @ Canisius L 80-84 OT 64%     1 - 1 -7.3 +4.7 -11.9
  Nov 15, 2022 193   South Dakota St. L 62-66 57%     1 - 2 -5.2 -16.2 +11.4
  Nov 19, 2022 236   Bowling Green W 81-68 75%     2 - 2 +6.6 +1.4 +5.0
  Nov 22, 2022 269   Southern Indiana W 80-66 80%     3 - 2 +5.7 -3.3 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2022 130   Notre Dame W 63-51 43%     4 - 2 +14.4 -3.7 +19.7
  Nov 30, 2022 116   Middle Tennessee W 71-64 50%     5 - 2 +7.5 +5.1 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2022 170   @ Buffalo L 66-83 41%     5 - 3 -14.2 -4.0 -10.6
  Dec 07, 2022 171   Cleveland St. W 61-42 61%     6 - 3 +16.5 -5.0 +24.0
  Dec 11, 2022 86   Iona L 57-72 30%     6 - 4 -9.1 -15.5 +7.1
  Dec 16, 2022 169   Florida Gulf Coast L 58-71 61%     6 - 5 -15.4 -10.1 -6.6
  Dec 19, 2022 163   @ Siena L 70-76 40%     6 - 6 -2.9 +10.2 -14.1
  Dec 21, 2022 161   @ Northern Iowa L 52-62 40%     6 - 7 -6.9 -13.2 +5.3
  Dec 31, 2022 140   Massachusetts W 83-64 56%     7 - 7 1 - 0 +18.0 +12.1 +6.4
  Jan 04, 2023 122   George Mason W 73-69 51%     8 - 7 2 - 0 +4.3 +5.4 -0.9
  Jan 07, 2023 77   @ Saint Louis L 55-78 19%     8 - 8 2 - 1 -13.3 -9.3 -6.3
  Jan 11, 2023 189   @ Rhode Island L 67-68 46%     8 - 9 2 - 2 +0.6 -2.0 +2.6
  Jan 14, 2023 111   Richmond W 71-63 48%     9 - 9 3 - 2 +8.9 +1.2 +7.8
  Jan 18, 2023 127   Duquesne W 65-56 52%     10 - 9 4 - 2 +8.9 -7.0 +16.2
  Jan 21, 2023 221   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-67 53%     10 - 10 4 - 3 -12.3 -10.9 -2.7
  Jan 25, 2023 151   Fordham L 68-79 59%     10 - 11 4 - 4 -12.8 -2.2 -10.8
  Jan 28, 2023 72   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 01, 2023 111   @ Richmond L 61-67 28%    
  Feb 04, 2023 69   Dayton L 59-64 34%    
  Feb 08, 2023 244   La Salle W 70-63 77%    
  Feb 11, 2023 127   @ Duquesne L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 15, 2023 151   @ Fordham L 65-68 37%    
  Feb 19, 2023 180   George Washington W 73-70 64%    
  Feb 22, 2023 126   @ Davidson L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 26, 2023 183   Saint Joseph's W 70-66 65%    
  Mar 04, 2023 140   @ Massachusetts L 67-71 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 2.7 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 1.3 5.3 1.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 5.3 3.7 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 8.3 0.8 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 6.2 5.1 0.1 11.4 8th
9th 1.2 9.4 1.0 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.1 5.9 5.6 0.1 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 7.9 1.2 10.5 11th
12th 0.3 4.4 3.9 0.1 8.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 3.5 0.5 5.6 13th
14th 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.5 14th
15th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.6 3.4 10.3 19.5 24.3 21.2 13.1 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 78.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 12.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.6% 4.0% 4.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
11-7 5.8% 5.2% 5.2% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.5
10-8 13.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 12.7
9-9 21.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.2 0.4 20.7
8-10 24.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 23.7
7-11 19.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 19.3
6-12 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%