Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#85
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#127
Pace68.7#205
Improvement+3.1#20

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#290
First Shot-2.6#258
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#272
Layup/Dunks+7.0#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#332
Freethrows-1.4#269
Improvement+1.5#47

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#1
First Shot+17.4#1
After Offensive Rebounds-6.6#357
Layups/Dunks+9.4#1
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#21
Freethrows-2.2#301
Improvement+1.6#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 19.0% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.4% 9.3% 3.8%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 11.1
.500 or above 82.7% 86.0% 66.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 81.2% 70.8%
Conference Champion 9.6% 10.4% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Four3.3% 3.5% 2.1%
First Round16.0% 17.3% 9.6%
Second Round5.7% 6.2% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 37 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 202   St. Peter's W 57-54 85%     1 - 0 -1.8 -16.0 +14.1
  Nov 13, 2021 156   Wagner L 44-58 80%     1 - 1 -16.3 -24.1 +5.6
  Nov 17, 2021 77   @ Vanderbilt W 48-37 37%     2 - 1 +20.9 -15.7 +37.2
  Nov 20, 2021 100   Chattanooga L 54-56 68%     2 - 2 -0.2 -9.3 +8.7
  Nov 24, 2021 71   Syracuse W 67-55 48%     3 - 2 +19.1 -7.9 +26.8
  Nov 25, 2021 3   Baylor L 61-69 13%     3 - 3 +10.8 -3.4 +14.2
  Nov 26, 2021 26   Connecticut L 63-70 OT 26%     3 - 4 +6.2 -8.2 +14.9
  Dec 04, 2021 179   Campbell W 62-52 83%    
  Dec 08, 2021 149   Jacksonville St. W 65-57 79%    
  Dec 11, 2021 228   @ Old Dominion W 61-54 73%    
  Dec 15, 2021 221   Florida Atlantic W 71-59 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 67   Penn St. W 59-57 58%    
  Dec 21, 2021 195   New Hampshire W 65-54 84%    
  Dec 30, 2021 115   George Mason W 66-60 72%    
  Jan 02, 2022 73   Davidson W 63-60 59%    
  Jan 05, 2022 113   @ Dayton L 59-60 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 244   @ La Salle W 65-57 76%    
  Jan 11, 2022 262   George Washington W 69-54 91%    
  Jan 14, 2022 39   @ St. Bonaventure L 56-63 27%    
  Jan 22, 2022 220   Saint Joseph's W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 26, 2022 73   @ Davidson L 60-63 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 83   @ Richmond L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 02, 2022 113   Dayton W 62-56 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 194   Duquesne W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 08, 2022 78   Rhode Island W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 115   @ George Mason W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 15, 2022 246   @ Fordham W 63-55 77%    
  Feb 18, 2022 83   Richmond W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 116   @ Massachusetts W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 01, 2022 39   St. Bonaventure L 59-60 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 56   @ Saint Louis L 62-67 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.2 4.4 0.9 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.7 4.8 0.9 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.3 5.1 1.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.8 2.4 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 4.8 2.9 0.2 9.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.5 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.4 6.2 8.2 11.9 14.7 13.7 14.1 11.1 6.9 4.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 95.2% 1.7    1.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 76.1% 3.4    2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.7% 2.4    0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
13-5 10.2% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 99.3% 32.1% 67.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
16-2 1.8% 88.5% 37.4% 51.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 81.6%
15-3 4.4% 75.0% 31.3% 43.7% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 1.1 63.6%
14-4 6.9% 47.2% 19.5% 27.7% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.7 34.4%
13-5 11.1% 30.4% 18.2% 12.2% 11.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.1 7.8 14.9%
12-6 14.1% 18.0% 13.6% 4.4% 11.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 11.6 5.0%
11-7 13.7% 9.6% 7.7% 1.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 12.4 2.1%
10-8 14.7% 5.5% 5.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 13.9 0.3%
9-9 11.9% 3.3% 3.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.5
8-10 8.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-11 6.2% 1.3% 1.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 3.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.6% 10.1% 7.5% 10.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 3.2 5.3 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 82.4 8.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 96.8 3.2