Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 UNC Wilmington 28.3%   13   17 - 3 8 - 1 +3.1      +2.2 114 +0.9 138 64.2 306 +6.4 85 +9.5 1
134 Hofstra 12.8%   11 - 9 4 - 5 +1.5      +2.3 111 -0.8 194 63.6 315 +1.2 144 -3.2 9
135 William & Mary 16.2%   12 - 7 5 - 4 +1.5      +0.6 145 +0.9 134 81.1 5 +3.2 112 -0.3 5
154 College of Charleston 13.9%   13 - 8 7 - 2 +0.3      -0.3 175 +0.6 140 71.1 119 +2.4 124 +5.3 2
168 Towson 6.3%   10 - 11 4 - 6 -0.8      -2.4 236 +1.6 120 60.9 353 -0.8 177 -4.0 10
183 Elon 5.2%   11 - 9 5 - 4 -1.8      +2.8 99 -4.6 305 67.5 220 -0.3 165 -1.1 6
199 Monmouth 4.7%   10 - 11 5 - 4 -2.3      -3.2 261 +0.9 135 66.6 242 -3.4 221 -1.6 7
201 Drexel 5.3%   10 - 11 5 - 4 -2.4      -3.9 273 +1.5 122 61.1 352 -4.2 230 0.0 3
222 Campbell 2.2%   7 - 13 3 - 6 -3.5      0.0 157 -3.6 287 74.2 53 -3.4 222 -5.7 11
223 Stony Brook 2.8%   11 - 9 5 - 4 -3.6      -1.4 203 -2.2 246 62.8 329 -0.7 176 -0.1 4
237 Hampton 1.6%   8 - 12 4 - 5 -4.3      -4.1 279 -0.2 171 64.5 297 -6.1 261 -3.2 8
252 Northeastern 0.4%   6 - 14 2 - 7 -5.3      -0.1 164 -5.1 322 73.7 59 -6.4 270 -8.8 13
288 N.C. A&T 0.2%   7 - 11 2 - 7 -7.1      -2.8 247 -4.4 300 72.4 86 -6.4 269 -8.7 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Jan 29 168 Towson 73 115 UNC Wilmington 82   
Thu, Jan 29 154 College of Charleston 66 134 Hofstra 64   
Thu, Jan 29 199 Monmouth 83 288 N.C. A&T 81   
Thu, Jan 29 183 Elon 79 135 William & Mary 76   
Thu, Jan 29 201 Drexel 58 237 Hampton 51   
Thu, Jan 29 222 Campbell 69 223 Stony Brook 81   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 31 134 Hofstra 70 199 Monmouth 69 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 183 Elon 76 223 Stony Brook 71 68%   
Sat, Jan 31 237 Hampton 61 168 Towson 67 73%   
Sat, Jan 31 222 Campbell 81 135 William & Mary 89 78%   
Sat, Jan 31 154 College of Charleston 81 252 Northeastern 79 60%   
Sat, Jan 31 201 Drexel 73 288 N.C. A&T 66 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 1.3 80.2 14.1 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 5.2 1.4 10.0 14.2 18.1 15.9 13.5 10.6 6.5 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
William & Mary 3.6 6.7 25.6 27.9 16.3 9.1 5.7 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2
College of Charleston 2.3 27.5 44.1 14.2 6.5 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
Towson 7.1 0.1 1.9 5.5 9.8 10.7 12.9 13.7 13.4 12.3 11.0 6.7 2.0 0.2
Elon 5.9 1.1 6.0 11.8 13.5 14.1 14.2 12.9 9.8 8.2 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0
Monmouth 6.2 0.8 6.8 9.9 12.6 11.6 14.0 12.4 11.3 10.2 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.1
Drexel 5.6 0.9 8.6 13.7 15.4 14.7 13.2 11.1 8.3 7.0 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.1
Campbell 9.3 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.4 5.8 7.3 10.0 14.3 19.6 20.5 10.2 4.9
Stony Brook 6.1 0.5 5.9 10.8 13.0 13.6 13.2 11.3 11.4 9.8 6.4 3.5 0.7 0.1
Hampton 8.4 0.1 1.1 2.9 4.5 5.4 8.0 10.9 12.3 15.6 17.7 14.4 5.7 1.5
Northeastern 11.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.3 5.0 9.9 16.0 38.7 24.6
N.C. A&T 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.6 6.2 12.4 31.0 45.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 14 - 4 23 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.0 9.5 18.1 24.1 24.7 14.7 4.0
Hofstra 10 - 8 17 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.5 12.4 22.2 26.7 19.9 9.6 1.9
William & Mary 11 - 7 18 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.6 10.2 20.1 24.8 22.9 13.1 3.0
College of Charleston 12 - 6 18 - 12 0.1 0.9 3.3 8.2 17.6 23.1 23.4 16.1 6.3 1.0
Towson 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.3 1.9 7.1 16.4 25.0 23.8 17.4 6.6 1.5
Elon 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.4 2.5 9.9 18.5 23.7 22.8 15.1 5.6 1.4 0.2
Monmouth 9 - 9 14 - 16 0.7 4.2 11.2 19.9 24.2 19.6 13.0 6.0 1.2 0.0
Drexel 10 - 8 15 - 15 0.3 2.2 7.8 15.5 22.9 23.2 16.9 8.4 2.4 0.4
Campbell 7 - 11 11 - 18 0.9 5.2 11.9 20.8 24.5 20.0 10.8 4.5 1.2 0.2
Stony Brook 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.5 3.8 10.8 19.4 23.7 21.3 13.2 5.8 1.5 0.1
Hampton 8 - 10 12 - 17 1.3 6.6 16.8 24.6 22.9 15.8 8.6 2.8 0.5 0.1
Northeastern 5 - 13 9 - 20 2.9 11.3 21.6 25.1 20.3 12.0 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 10 - 17 6.1 18.4 27.5 24.0 14.7 6.4 2.2 0.5 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 80.2% 66.0 11.7 2.2 0.2 0.0
Hofstra 1.4% 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
William & Mary 6.7% 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
College of Charleston 27.5% 14.8 10.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
Towson 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Elon 1.1% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
Drexel 0.9% 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Campbell 0.0% 0.0
Stony Brook 0.5% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Hampton 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Northeastern
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 13   0.6 7.8 14.7 5.0 0.2 71.7 0.0%
Hofstra 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 2.5 6.2 3.3 0.8 87.2 0.0%
William & Mary 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.1 3.1 7.6 4.9 0.6 0.0 83.8 0.0%
College of Charleston 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 5.4 6.1 1.4 0.0 86.1 0.0%
Towson 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.1 0.5 93.7 0.0%
Elon 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.3 94.8 0.0%
Monmouth 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.3 1.0 2.2 1.1 95.3 0.0%
Drexel 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.8 1.4 94.7 0.0%
Campbell 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 97.8 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 97.2 0.0%
Hampton 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 98.4 0.0%
Northeastern 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 28.3% 0.0% 28.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 12.8% 0.0% 12.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 16.2% 0.0% 16.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 6.3% 0.2% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 4.7% 0.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 5.3% 0.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.2% 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.8% 0.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.6% 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%