Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 College of Charleston 25.8%   14   21 - 7 13 - 3 23 - 7 15 - 3 +4.4      +4.5 73 -0.1 170 75.3 30 +5.4 104 +6.6 1
115 UNC Wilmington 22.5%   17 - 7 11 - 4 19 - 8 13 - 5 +3.9      +5.1 62 -1.1 207 63.9 306 +5.4 103 +3.3 2
129 Hofstra 15.0%   17 - 11 11 - 5 18 - 12 12 - 6 +2.4      +1.4 139 +1.0 143 65.9 253 +1.3 142 +0.3 5
140 Drexel 12.3%   16 - 11 10 - 5 18 - 12 12 - 6 +1.8      +0.5 168 +1.3 136 61.9 340 +0.8 153 +2.0 3
157 Towson 8.1%   16 - 12 10 - 6 17 - 13 11 - 7 +0.3      -1.3 219 +1.6 127 58.0 359 +0.3 158 +0.6 4
165 Delaware 7.1%   16 - 11 9 - 6 18 - 12 11 - 7 -0.2      0.0 178 -0.2 172 68.0 198 -0.4 166 -1.1 7
200 Monmouth 3.4%   16 - 13 9 - 7 17 - 14 10 - 8 -2.5      -0.5 190 -2.0 232 70.2 133 +0.3 159 -0.7 6
211 Stony Brook 3.0%   15 - 13 9 - 7 16 - 14 10 - 8 -2.8      -1.3 216 -1.5 223 67.7 212 -1.4 189 -1.7 8
244 Northeastern 1.8%   12 - 17 7 - 9 12 - 19 7 - 11 -4.1      -0.7 198 -3.4 275 65.0 284 -4.3 248 -5.3 9
300 Campbell 0.5%   9 - 16 6 - 9 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.5      -3.3 263 -4.2 305 65.8 259 -8.4 307 -6.6 10
312 Elon 0.3%   10 - 17 5 - 11 11 - 18 6 - 12 -8.5      -2.6 248 -5.9 344 68.6 178 -6.9 288 -8.5 11
318 William & Mary 0.2%   6 - 21 3 - 13 7 - 22 4 - 14 -9.4      -4.9 300 -4.5 320 65.0 283 -11.2 333 -11.5 13
339 Hampton 0.0%   4 - 22 2 - 14 5 - 23 3 - 15 -11.9      -6.6 334 -5.4 336 73.1 59 -13.9 348 -16.2 14
342 N.C. A&T 0.0%   7 - 22 5 - 11 7 - 24 5 - 13 -12.5      -6.5 333 -6.0 346 68.9 166 -10.2 323 -8.9 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 1.0 99.0 1.0
UNC Wilmington 2.0 15.3 74.8 6.6 1.7 1.4 0.2
Hofstra 3.4 1.1 17.8 31.4 36.9 11.6 1.2
Drexel 3.1 0.5 23.5 54.2 13.1 5.2 1.8 1.3 0.4
Towson 4.4 5.9 17.1 31.1 30.6 11.0 4.1 0.2
Delaware 5.0 2.7 20.5 18.8 19.7 16.9 13.2 8.2
Monmouth 5.9 2.6 15.5 21.8 22.0 30.3 7.8
Stony Brook 6.9 3.0 6.0 5.0 16.4 26.8 42.8
Northeastern 9.1 0.4 3.2 83.0 13.4
Campbell 9.5 0.1 0.8 56.0 36.3 6.0 0.9
Elon 10.7 11.7 18.5 61.3 8.4
William & Mary 12.7 10.4 11.7 72.1 5.8
Hampton 13.8 22.9 77.1
N.C. A&T 11.4 2.5 12.0 31.5 54.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 15 - 3 2.8 34.2 63.1
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 2.2 16.4 41.7 39.7
Hofstra 12 - 6 46.1 42.8 11.1
Drexel 12 - 6 3.0 20.9 47.4 28.8
Towson 11 - 7 13.2 64.6 22.2
Delaware 11 - 7 6.8 29.9 43.0 20.3
Monmouth 10 - 8 11.1 43.8 45.0
Stony Brook 10 - 8 37.7 49.7 12.6
Northeastern 7 - 11 59.2 35.2 5.6
Campbell 7 - 11 17.1 61.1 20.3 1.6
Elon 6 - 12 22.3 52.3 25.3
William & Mary 4 - 14 20.0 54.5 25.5
Hampton 3 - 15 51.2 40.1 8.8
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 63.9 31.8 4.3




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 99.0% 84.1 14.1 0.7 0.2
UNC Wilmington 15.3% 1.0 13.7 0.5 0.2
Hofstra 1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.2
Drexel 0.5% 0.0 0.3 0.2
Towson
Delaware
Monmouth
Stony Brook
Northeastern
Campbell
Elon
William & Mary
Hampton
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 14   0.4 8.3 14.4 2.6 0.0 74.2 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.6 10.0 10.7 1.2 0.0 77.5 0.0%
Hofstra 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.3 3.8 7.6 3.2 0.1 85.0 0.0%
Drexel 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.0 87.7 0.0%
Towson 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.8 0.3 91.9 0.0%
Delaware 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 3.7 1.4 0.0 92.9 0.0%
Monmouth 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.5 96.6 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.1 97.0 0.0%
Northeastern 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Campbell 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Elon 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
William & Mary 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Hampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
College of Charleston 25.8% 0.0% 25.8% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 22.5% 0.0% 22.5% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 12.3% 0.0% 12.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 8.1% 0.0% 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.0% 0.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5
2nd Round 10.4% 0.1 89.6 10.4
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0