Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 UNC Wilmington 28.8%   13   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +5.0      +3.8 80 +1.1 131 63.3 328 +5.4 97 0.0 1
120 William & Mary 19.0%   6 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +3.0      +1.1 136 +2.0 109 84.0 6 +10.3 63 0.0 1
132 Towson 14.7%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 +2.0      +0.2 154 +1.8 116 60.9 357 +4.8 104 0.0 1
134 Hofstra 13.7%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.7      -1.5 205 +3.2 81 68.3 219 +1.8 149 0.0 1
177 College of Charleston 5.5%   3 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 -1.3      +0.3 150 -1.6 218 67.5 240 -3.2 216 0.0 1
195 Northeastern 3.9%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 9 -2.3      -2.7 240 +0.4 157 71.8 126 -1.5 193 0.0 1
203 Monmouth 3.1%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 9 -2.6      -0.5 174 -2.2 239 67.8 232 -4.2 229 0.0 1
207 Elon 3.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -2.9      +2.1 118 -4.9 334 69.9 176 -2.7 209 0.0 1
222 Stony Brook 2.5%   4 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -3.8      -1.2 195 -2.6 252 64.0 318 +3.8 121 0.0 1
226 Campbell 2.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -3.9      -1.8 221 -2.1 236 74.0 73 -2.1 202 0.0 1
230 Hampton 2.0%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -4.2      -2.1 231 -2.1 233 64.5 304 -7.1 272 0.0 1
260 Drexel 1.2%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -5.5      -3.6 268 -1.9 227 63.0 334 -6.5 264 0.0 1
321 N.C. A&T 0.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 19 4 - 14 -9.1      -5.5 321 -3.6 295 72.4 108 -5.6 250 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Nov 29 207 Elon 84 190 Mercer 91   
Sat, Nov 29 134 Hofstra 78 269 Merrimack 58   
Sat, Nov 29 320 Le Moyne 83 203 Monmouth 79   
Sat, Nov 29 355 Gardner-Webb 62 100 UNC Wilmington 88   
Sun, Nov 30 77 Belmont 96 177 College of Charleston 73   
Sun, Nov 30 220 Old Dominion 75 120 William & Mary 88   
Sun, Nov 30 134 Hofstra 77 237 Penn 60   
Sun, Nov 30 334 Lafayette 74 203 Monmouth 88   
Tue, Dec 2 135 Duquesne 79 120 William & Mary 83   
Tue, Dec 2 226 Campbell 76 97 Penn St. 87   
Tue, Dec 2 189 Charlotte 74 321 N.C. A&T 57   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 3 136 Columbia 74 134 Hofstra 71 61%   
Wed, Dec 3 143 Cornell 74 132 Towson 78 65%   
Wed, Dec 3 207 Elon 75 165 Furman 74 54%   
Wed, Dec 3 184 Marshall 70 100 UNC Wilmington 79 82%   
Wed, Dec 3 203 Monmouth 73 235 Princeton 69 68%   
Wed, Dec 3 248 American 72 260 Drexel 68 64%   
Wed, Dec 3 230 Hampton 74 309 Loyola Maryland 67 74%   
Wed, Dec 3 330 Holy Cross 69 195 Northeastern 74 67%   
Sat, Dec 6 61 George Washington 92 120 William & Mary 83 80%   
Sat, Dec 6 207 Elon 78 213 Wofford 81 60%   
Sat, Dec 6 125 Georgia Tech 76 203 Monmouth 68 79%   
Sat, Dec 6 135 Duquesne 80 222 Stony Brook 71 79%   
Sat, Dec 6 321 N.C. A&T 72 350 NC Central 73 50%   
Sat, Dec 6 317 Louisiana 60 100 UNC Wilmington 71 84%   
Sun, Dec 7 134 Hofstra 64 94 Pittsburgh 71 73%   
Sun, Dec 7 132 Towson 68 65 Central Florida 78 82%   
Sun, Dec 7 251 Central Connecticut St. 66 195 Northeastern 71 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 2.5 43.1 21.8 13.3 8.3 5.3 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 3.3 27.1 20.5 16.6 11.3 8.2 5.8 3.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
Towson 3.9 19.4 18.6 16.0 13.1 9.4 7.4 5.2 3.8 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.3
Hofstra 4.1 17.1 17.9 15.8 12.8 10.5 7.8 6.1 4.3 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.3
College of Charleston 6.0 5.8 8.3 10.1 11.8 12.4 11.0 9.7 8.4 7.2 6.1 4.5 3.1 1.6
Northeastern 7.2 2.5 4.9 6.9 8.4 9.3 10.4 10.6 10.6 9.7 8.7 8.0 6.5 3.6
Monmouth 7.6 1.9 3.7 5.4 7.1 9.1 10.0 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.2 9.0 7.4 4.1
Elon 7.4 2.8 4.3 6.2 7.8 9.0 10.0 10.4 10.5 10.0 9.9 8.4 6.7 4.1
Stony Brook 7.8 2.1 3.7 5.5 6.8 8.5 9.4 9.4 10.2 10.2 10.4 9.6 8.8 5.4
Campbell 7.8 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.8 8.4 9.4 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.6 9.8 8.1 5.5
Hampton 8.1 1.6 2.9 4.4 5.7 7.6 8.6 10.0 10.4 11.5 11.3 10.6 9.1 6.2
Drexel 8.9 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.3 5.7 6.8 8.4 9.8 10.8 12.2 12.8 14.1 9.8
N.C. A&T 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.8 6.2 8.9 12.7 20.5 37.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.8 6.3 9.5 12.7 15.3 16.5 14.6 10.5 5.7 1.7
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.9 6.9 9.9 12.4 15.0 14.9 13.4 9.8 6.5 2.5 0.6
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.9 8.6 11.5 13.7 14.5 13.6 10.9 7.6 4.4 1.5 0.3
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.9 6.6 9.7 12.2 14.1 14.5 12.6 10.1 6.9 3.5 1.3 0.2
College of Charleston 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.3 6.9 9.7 11.9 14.0 14.1 12.4 9.8 6.6 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.0 7.6 10.6 12.3 14.3 13.3 11.5 8.9 6.1 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.6 9.1 11.5 13.5 14.7 13.1 10.7 7.8 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Elon 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.2 11.3 13.0 13.8 13.0 10.9 8.3 5.5 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.9 6.5 9.3 12.2 13.2 13.3 11.8 10.1 7.3 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.3 9.8 12.5 13.9 13.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.3 7.3 10.3 13.0 14.5 13.7 11.5 9.2 6.1 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.6 6.8 10.3 12.9 14.2 14.0 12.4 9.3 6.6 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 3.0 8.1 12.9 15.8 15.8 14.1 11.1 7.9 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 43.1% 30.4 9.9 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 27.1% 17.4 7.4 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Towson 19.4% 11.6 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 17.1% 9.9 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1
College of Charleston 5.8% 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 2.5% 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Elon 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 2.1% 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Campbell 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drexel 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 28.8% 28.7% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.7 10.3 10.6 3.9 0.7 0.1 71.2 0.1%
William & Mary 19.0% 18.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.5 7.0 2.4 0.3 0.1 81.0 0.1%
Towson 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.8 3.3 0.7 0.2 85.3 0.0%
Hofstra 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.2 3.6 1.2 0.2 86.3 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.6 0.6 94.5 0.0%
Northeastern 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 96.1 0.0%
Monmouth 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.4 96.9 0.0%
Elon 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 96.7 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 97.5 0.0%
Campbell 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 97.7 0.0%
Hampton 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 98.0 0.0%
Drexel 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.8 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 28.8% 0.1% 28.7% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.0% 0.1% 18.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 14.7% 0.1% 14.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 13.7% 0.1% 13.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.5% 0.3% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 3.9% 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.1% 0.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 3.3% 0.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.3% 0.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.0% 0.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.1
2nd Round 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0