Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 College of Charleston 45.8%   13   7 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 5 14 - 4 +6.7      +6.5 33 +0.2 175 82.2 6 +16.6 22 0.0 1
118 Towson 20.5%   7 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +3.7      +2.0 110 +1.7 125 63.1 323 +10.6 56 0.0 1
131 Hofstra 13.9%   6 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 5 +2.6      +3.9 75 -1.3 216 71.8 103 +6.9 83 0.0 1
138 UNC Wilmington 12.6%   4 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +2.1      -0.2 176 +2.3 111 64.5 287 +10.9 49 0.0 1
173 Drexel 6.3%   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 12 - 6 -0.2      -0.2 177 +0.1 180 62.3 337 -2.5 219 0.0 1
176 Delaware 6.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.2      +1.6 125 -1.8 230 68.6 185 -1.2 200 0.0 1
257 Northeastern 1.2%   1 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -4.7      -5.4 324 +0.7 159 67.4 221 -8.4 298 0.0 1
274 N.C. A&T 0.9%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 9 -5.7      -2.8 263 -2.8 262 69.3 162 -5.4 257 0.0 1
287 William & Mary 0.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -6.6      -1.9 229 -4.7 302 66.6 235 -5.6 261 0.0 1
329 Monmouth 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 25 5 - 13 -11.2      -6.8 341 -4.3 294 71.3 113 -14.8 341 0.0 1
334 Hampton 0.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 13 -11.9      -4.9 316 -6.9 335 71.6 108 -15.3 345 0.0 1
343 Stony Brook 0.0%   0 - 5 0 - 0 5 - 24 4 - 14 -12.7      -6.3 340 -6.4 329 66.8 229 -14.6 338 0.0 1
346 Elon 0.0%   0 - 7 0 - 0 4 - 25 4 - 14 -12.9      -5.5 327 -7.4 343 67.0 227 -17.9 355 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
College of Charleston 2.1 49.9 21.4 12.8 8.0 4.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 3.5 19.6 19.1 17.2 15.4 12.0 8.2 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 3.2 21.1 23.3 18.8 14.4 10.1 6.4 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 3.4 19.0 20.0 19.3 16.1 11.4 7.1 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drexel 4.4 9.7 13.2 15.0 15.7 15.7 12.4 8.5 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Delaware 5.3 6.1 8.6 10.3 12.4 14.8 15.5 12.7 9.2 5.7 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.2
Northeastern 7.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.6 8.7 12.8 16.4 17.2 15.2 9.6 5.0 2.6 1.0
N.C. A&T 7.1 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.8 9.8 14.1 16.9 15.7 12.2 7.7 4.6 2.6 1.3
William & Mary 7.7 0.3 1.4 2.7 4.4 7.8 12.2 16.7 18.2 16.1 10.1 5.7 3.1 1.5
Monmouth 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 5.3 9.2 14.9 20.9 19.1 15.5 10.5
Hampton 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 7.4 12.0 17.7 20.4 19.6 15.4
Stony Brook 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.5 10.6 15.9 19.6 21.2 19.3
Elon 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 7.3 13.0 19.9 24.8 27.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.5 8.4 13.5 17.7 19.9 17.6 11.1 3.8
Towson 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.9 8.4 12.3 15.9 17.3 15.3 11.6 6.7 2.6 0.6
Hofstra 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.8 6.9 10.9 14.6 17.9 17.8 13.8 8.1 3.1 0.6
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.5 7.8 11.9 16.2 18.0 16.1 12.1 7.0 2.5 0.5
Drexel 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.8 8.9 12.2 15.6 15.6 14.5 10.6 6.5 3.2 1.1 0.2
Delaware 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.8 9.3 12.3 14.2 14.7 13.0 10.2 6.6 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.3 7.7 11.0 14.3 15.2 14.5 12.2 8.2 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 6.7 9.7 12.5 14.3 14.2 12.8 9.8 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 8.3 12.5 14.8 16.0 14.1 11.5 7.6 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 5 - 13 0.7 2.9 7.8 13.1 17.1 17.5 15.4 11.1 7.1 4.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 5 - 13 1.5 5.6 11.3 15.9 17.3 16.3 13.3 8.6 5.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 4 - 14 2.1 7.4 13.0 16.6 17.6 15.0 11.6 7.5 4.7 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 4 - 14 3.8 10.9 17.4 19.4 17.3 13.2 8.6 5.1 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 49.9% 35.2 11.6 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Towson 19.6% 11.3 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
Hofstra 21.1% 11.6 7.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 19.0% 10.4 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Drexel 9.7% 4.7 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Delaware 6.1% 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.0% 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Elon 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 45.8% 39.1% 6.6% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 3.0 10.5 18.5 7.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 54.2 10.9%
Towson 20.5% 19.3% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 6.7 6.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 79.5 1.5%
Hofstra 13.9% 13.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.0 4.2 1.6 0.2 86.1 0.2%
UNC Wilmington 12.6% 12.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.4 3.5 1.2 0.3 87.4 0.4%
Drexel 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.8 93.7 0.0%
Delaware 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.2 93.5 0.0%
Northeastern 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 98.8 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%
William & Mary 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Monmouth 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Hampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
College of Charleston 45.8% 4.2% 43.5% 11.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 20.5% 0.9% 20.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 13.9% 0.2% 13.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 12.6% 0.4% 12.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 6.3% 0.9% 5.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 6.5% 0.7% 6.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.2 0.1
1st Round 98.6% 1.0 1.4 93.5 5.1 0.0
2nd Round 18.6% 0.2 81.5 18.3 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0