Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
135 Hofstra 20.1%   15   2 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 +2.3      +4.4 60 -2.1 247 69.4 178 +2.2 143 0.0 1
150 Northeastern 17.1%   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 7 +1.4      -3.4 278 +4.8 57 65.8 267 +2.1 150 0.0 1
160 Delaware 13.9%   4 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +0.5      +3.8 79 -3.3 281 68.5 205 +1.8 155 0.0 1
164 Towson 12.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 0.0      +0.6 159 -0.6 192 64.6 291 -0.5 182 0.0 1
165 James Madison 12.3%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -0.1      -1.2 207 +1.1 131 77.1 36 +5.0 109 0.0 1
167 Drexel 12.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.1      +1.9 116 -2.0 245 62.7 325 -0.6 185 0.0 1
208 College of Charleston 7.3%   4 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 9 -2.1      -1.0 204 -1.1 214 90.8 1 +6.6 86 0.0 1
266 Elon 2.4%   0 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -5.8      -1.7 221 -4.1 295 70.6 146 -10.1 309 0.0 1
278 UNC Wilmington 1.9%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 6 - 12 -6.5      -4.0 285 -2.5 256 65.6 270 -7.6 286 0.0 1
338 William & Mary 0.2%   0 - 6 0 - 0 5 - 25 3 - 15 -11.6      -7.0 345 -4.6 304 71.4 121 -19.9 355 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Hofstra 3.2 29.4 18.6 13.9 11.7 9.7 7.0 5.1 2.8 1.5 0.2
Northeastern 3.4 24.3 18.6 15.3 13.4 9.7 7.9 5.9 3.3 1.4 0.2
Delaware 3.9 16.5 16.3 15.8 13.5 12.5 10.3 7.9 4.5 2.1 0.6
Towson 4.1 15.0 15.4 14.2 13.5 12.9 11.4 8.3 5.7 2.6 1.1
James Madison 4.2 15.2 14.3 13.5 13.9 11.0 11.5 10.0 6.8 3.2 0.8
Drexel 4.2 15.5 15.9 12.4 13.4 11.3 10.6 9.6 6.6 3.7 1.1
College of Charleston 5.2 7.3 8.8 10.5 13.1 13.2 12.9 13.7 11.1 7.5 1.9
Elon 7.0 1.6 3.0 4.2 6.0 8.0 11.5 14.0 21.2 21.5 9.1
UNC Wilmington 7.4 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.4 6.3 10.2 14.7 20.0 24.1 13.9
William & Mary 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 5.0 10.1 24.3 55.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 3.8 5.8 8.8 10.6 13.1 13.8 14.0 11.5 7.9 5.0 2.0 0.3
Northeastern 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.5 6.1 9.3 12.9 14.0 13.9 12.1 10.4 8.0 3.6 1.2 0.2
Delaware 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.7 9.6 11.6 13.9 13.7 14.5 10.4 7.5 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.1
Towson 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.4 4.6 6.6 9.1 12.4 13.9 13.6 13.2 9.9 6.4 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.1
James Madison 10 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.8 4.4 8.2 10.2 10.5 13.8 13.4 12.3 9.4 6.9 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.0
Drexel 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.5 5.1 7.1 9.2 11.8 12.7 12.5 12.4 9.9 6.7 3.8 2.4 0.7 0.1
College of Charleston 9 - 9 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.3 5.7 8.8 11.6 11.3 13.2 13.4 11.1 8.3 6.2 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1
Elon 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.3 7.1 10.2 13.1 14.5 13.3 11.2 9.2 7.1 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 6 - 12 0.5 1.9 5.7 9.1 11.8 14.2 13.8 13.0 10.4 8.0 4.8 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 3 - 15 5.7 14.4 18.0 17.7 16.5 11.6 6.9 4.8 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hofstra 29.4% 19.6 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.1
Northeastern 24.3% 16.8 5.3 1.9 0.3 0.1
Delaware 16.5% 10.2 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.1
Towson 15.0% 9.1 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
James Madison 15.2% 8.8 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.1
Drexel 15.5% 9.4 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
College of Charleston 7.3% 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.1
Elon 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0
UNC Wilmington 1.2% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0
William & Mary 0.1% 0.0 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hofstra 20.1% 20.1% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 3.9 6.2 6.0 1.8 79.9 0.1%
Northeastern 17.1% 17.1% 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 4.4 5.3 4.1 1.7 82.9 0.1%
Delaware 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.5 4.8 2.5 86.1 0.0%
Towson 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.1 5.2 2.6 87.6 0.0%
James Madison 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.7 4.3 4.6 1.2 87.7 0.0%
Drexel 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.6 3.2 87.5 0.0%
College of Charleston 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 3.1 1.7 92.7 0.0%
Elon 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 97.6 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.5 98.1 0.0%
William & Mary 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Hofstra 20.1% 1.0% 19.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 17.1% 0.9% 16.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 13.9% 0.5% 13.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 12.4% 1.1% 11.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 12.3% 0.3% 12.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 12.5% 1.3% 12.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 7.3% 0.8% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.6% 1.0 3.4 96.6 0.1
2nd Round 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0