Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #199
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 #221
Pace 66.6 #242
Improvement +2.5 #79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #261 D+ C C- C D+
Defense #135 C C+ C+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #187 1.08 #273 -1.7 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #85 0.68 #295 +0.9 #128
Three Pointers 37% #274 0.99 #226 -2.8 #283
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #288 -3.6 #287
Freethrows 0.30 #206 73% #163 0.22 #186
Second Chance 30.5% #186 1.09 #115 0.33 #146
Turnovers 17.1% #232
Total Offense -3.2 #261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.13 #143 -1.1 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #264 0.74 #141 +1.1 #104
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.07 #266 -1.0 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #205 -1.0 #207
Freethrows 0.27 #86 71% #130 0.20 #89
Second Chance 33.1% #288 0.88 #19 0.29 #108
Turnovers 17.7% #93
Total Defense +0.9 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #269 1.1% #272
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #280 0.8% #200
Possession Length 18.0 #247 17.7 #244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #108 0.18 #203
Improvement -1.4 #256 +3.9 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.6% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 33.8% 47.3% 21.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 78.9% 50.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round4.5% 5.5% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 208 @La Salle L 60 - 73 40% -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 D- C F -5 C- B- C
 Thu, Nov 13 53 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 8% -2  0 - 2 +1 -1 F A+ F +2 B- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 12% -5  0 - 3 +6 +5 C+ D B- +1 C C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 206 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 63% -1  1 - 3 -5 -5 F B C +0 B C C-
 Fri, Nov 28 297 Ball St. W 80 - 73 70% +4  2 - 3 -1 +8 C B A -9 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 68% -1  2 - 4 -11 +4 F A+ B+ -15 F D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 30 315 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 65% +13  3 - 4 +8 +12 A F C- -4 D B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 213 Princeton W 63 - 58 65% +3  4 - 4 -1 -9 D F C +8 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 110 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 20% -2  4 - 5 -5 -1 D- C+ A+ -4 C- B- A-
 Sun, Dec 14 272 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 54% -0  4 - 6 -11 -4 D D C- -8 F+ D+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 177 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 58% -15  4 - 7 -14 -1 D+ F C- -13 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 21 304 Lehigh W 76 - 62 80% +7  5 - 7 +3 +2 A F F +1 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 222 Campbell L 65 - 68 66% +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -10 -8 F D+ A+ -2 A F+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 168 @Towson W 62 - 48 33% +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +16 -1 C- C F +19 A A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 135 William & Mary W 81 - 70 47% +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +10 +5 C+ A- B+ +4 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 134 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 26% +1  7 - 9 2 - 2 +2 -9 F F+ D +11 A+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 15 201 Drexel L 51 - 73 62% -14  7 - 10 2 - 3 -27 -13 F C- F -18 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 252 Northeastern W 81 - 68 72% +1  8 - 10 3 - 3 +5 -0 D B- A+ +5 C A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 237 @Hampton L 63 - 65 46% -3  8 - 11 3 - 4 -3 -3 D+ B F -0 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 222 @Campbell W 88 - 73 43% +5  9 - 11 4 - 4 +14 +11 A A+ F +3 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 288 N.C. A&T W 83 - 81 OT 77% -2  10 - 11 5 - 4 -8 -1 F+ C+ B- -8 B- F B+
 Sat, Jan 31 134 Hofstra L 69 - 70 48%
 Thu, Feb 5 223 @Stony Brook L 67 - 69 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 201 @Drexel L 63 - 66 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 168 Towson W 66 - 64 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 115 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 73 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 154 @College of Charleston L 69 - 75 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 223 Stony Brook W 70 - 66 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 Elon W 75 - 73 59%
 Tue, Mar 3 252 @Northeastern L 75 - 76 51%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -2 -3 D+ C C- +1 C C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 5.6 2.0 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.6 7.6 4.2 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 6.9 0.6 11.6 5th
6th 0.7 10.6 2.6 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 5.0 7.2 0.2 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 8.6 1.6 11.3 8th
9th 0.2 4.8 5.0 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.0 0.6 6.2 10th
11th 0.3 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.7 4.2 11.2 19.9 24.2 19.6 13.0 6.0 1.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 39.9% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 1.2% 11.1% 11.1% 13.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 6.0% 11.1% 11.1% 13.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3
11-7 13.0% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 11.9
10-8 19.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 18.3
9-9 24.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.5 0.2 23.5
8-10 19.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 19.5
7-11 11.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.9
6-12 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.1
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.9 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%