Monmouth
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#135
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#54
Pace74.9#57
Improvement+3.0#21

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#125
First Shot+3.1#96
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#265
Layup/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#217
Freethrows+3.4#19
Improvement+1.3#58

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#146
First Shot-0.9#204
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#83
Layups/Dunks+1.0#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#188
Freethrows-2.2#300
Improvement+1.7#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 29.3% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 95.7% 98.5% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.3% 89.9%
Conference Champion 32.3% 42.6% 21.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round24.4% 28.9% 19.6%
Second Round3.0% 3.9% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 2
Quad 36 - 58 - 7
Quad 414 - 323 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 223   @ Charlotte L 66-68 57%     0 - 1 -1.7 -4.5 +2.7
  Nov 13, 2021 164   @ Towson W 79-71 46%     1 - 1 +11.2 +1.5 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2021 313   Lehigh W 85-75 90%     2 - 1 -1.6 +2.1 -4.4
  Nov 20, 2021 220   @ Saint Joseph's W 87-75 57%     3 - 1 +12.5 +9.1 +2.9
  Nov 24, 2021 151   Princeton W 76-64 66%     4 - 1 +10.0 +3.0 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati W 61-59 20%     5 - 1 +13.3 +3.0 +10.5
  Dec 03, 2021 180   @ Niagara W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 05, 2021 284   @ Canisius W 80-74 71%    
  Dec 09, 2021 61   @ St. John's L 76-84 22%    
  Dec 12, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 14, 2021 121   @ Yale L 72-76 38%    
  Dec 19, 2021 111   Colgate W 80-78 55%    
  Dec 22, 2021 133   Hofstra W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 31, 2021 255   Marist W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 07, 2022 275   Siena W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 09, 2022 106   Iona W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 14, 2022 202   @ St. Peter's W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 16, 2022 255   @ Marist W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 20, 2022 237   @ Fairfield W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 23, 2022 253   Manhattan W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 28, 2022 284   Canisius W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 30, 2022 180   Niagara W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 04, 2022 237   Fairfield W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 06, 2022 294   @ Quinnipiac W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 11, 2022 253   @ Manhattan W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 13, 2022 106   @ Iona L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 18, 2022 266   Rider W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 25, 2022 202   St. Peter's W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 27, 2022 275   @ Siena W 73-68 69%    
  Mar 03, 2022 294   Quinnipiac W 84-71 87%    
  Mar 05, 2022 266   @ Rider W 74-69 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 7.9 8.0 5.1 2.6 0.7 32.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.4 7.6 7.6 4.4 1.5 0.3 26.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.2 5.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.8 5.9 6.9 10.1 12.2 13.7 14.3 12.3 9.6 5.4 2.6 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
18-2 94.8% 5.1    4.7 0.4
17-3 84.0% 8.0    6.2 1.8 0.0
16-4 63.8% 7.9    5.1 2.4 0.3
15-5 37.6% 5.4    2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 16.3% 2.2    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1
13-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.3% 32.3 22.4 8.4 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 75.5% 63.1% 12.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 33.6%
19-1 2.6% 60.6% 55.7% 4.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 11.1%
18-2 5.4% 46.1% 43.4% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 4.8%
17-3 9.6% 39.0% 38.7% 0.3% 12.6 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.8 0.5%
16-4 12.3% 34.0% 34.0% 13.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.8 0.1 8.1
15-5 14.3% 30.2% 30.2% 13.4 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.4 10.0
14-6 13.7% 20.4% 20.4% 13.7 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.4 10.9
13-7 12.2% 17.9% 17.9% 14.1 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.0 10.1
12-8 10.1% 15.1% 15.1% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 8.5
11-9 6.9% 10.8% 10.8% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 6.2
10-10 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.5
9-11 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.7
8-12 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.9% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
6-14 0.5% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.6% 24.2% 0.4% 13.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 5.5 8.2 6.2 2.6 0.5 75.4 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 95.5% 9.0 95.5