Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.4 #13
Expected Predictive Rating +19.4 #13
Pace 82.3 #7
Improvement -0.6 #220

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #2 A+ C+ A- A+ B+
Defense #58 A- B+ B+ D+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.35 #23 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #349 1.22 #1 -1.9 #269
Three Pointers 55% #4 1.10 #76 +9.6 #5
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #11 +9.4 #11
Freethrows 17.5 #178 77% #48 13.6 #121
Second Chance 36.0% #43 1.14 #84 0.41 #39
Turnovers 12.1% #5
Total Offense +13.5 #2

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 0.95 #10 +5.5 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #24 0.80 #246 -3.4 #352
Three Pointers 37% #292 0.94 #90 +3.6 #58
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #38 +5.7 #38
Freethrows 15.4 #91 64% #5 9.9 #332
Second Chance 28.4% #100 0.92 #45 0.26 #50
Turnovers 15.5% #258
Total Defense +4.9 #58

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #46 -2.3% #32
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.7% #12 -9.1% #42
Possession Length 14.1 #5 18.0 #297
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #34 0.14 #74
Improvement -0.7 #236 +0.1 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.2% 5.8% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 19.2% 21.2% 9.7%
Top 4 Seed 66.1% 69.5% 49.6%
Top 6 Seed 89.6% 91.6% 79.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.1% 96.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 98.9% 96.4%
Average Seed 4.0 3.9 4.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 95.1% 83.7%
Conference Champion 17.7% 19.9% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.1% 0.8% 2.3%
First Round98.4% 98.8% 96.1%
Second Round87.3% 88.5% 81.4%
Sweet Sixteen53.0% 54.6% 45.5%
Elite Eight23.7% 24.7% 18.8%
Final Four10.4% 11.0% 7.6%
Championship Game4.1% 4.3% 2.9%
National Champion1.6% 1.7% 1.0%

Next Game: Texas (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 9
Quad 27 - 116 - 10
Quad 34 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 315 North Dakota W 91-62 99%     16.7   1 - 0 +16.7 +7.8 +7.4
  Sat, Nov 8 20 @St. John's W 103-96 47%     5.1   2 - 0 +26.2 +22.3 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 13 4 Purdue L 80-87 45%     -1.6   2 - 1 +12.6 +15.8 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 19 10 Illinois W 90-86 43%     0.7   3 - 1 +24.1 +15.3 +8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 8 Gonzaga L 85-95 42%     -1.3   3 - 2 +10.4 +13.3 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 25 143 UNLV W 115-76 94%     15.7   4 - 2 +39.9 +29.9 +5.7
  Wed, Nov 26 108 Maryland W 105-72 90%     19.7   5 - 2 +37.4 +26.8 +7.8
  Wed, Dec 3 39 Clemson W 90-84 79%     8.8   6 - 2 +16.0 +20.8 -4.9
  Sun, Dec 7 314 Texas San Antonio W 97-55 99%     26.6   7 - 2 +29.9 +11.4 +14.4
  Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75-96 30%     -6.6   7 - 3 +2.8 +8.5 -4.1
  Wed, Dec 17 88 South Florida W 104-93 91%     7.6   8 - 3 +14.6 +20.3 -6.9
  Sun, Dec 21 161 Kennesaw St. W 92-81 95%     17.6   9 - 3 +10.7 +9.2 +0.3
  Mon, Dec 29 80 Yale W 102-78 90%     18.7   10 - 3 +28.3 +28.6 +0.1
  Sat, Jan 3 27 Kentucky W 89-74 73%     11.0   11 - 3 1 - 0 +26.9 +20.5 +6.0
  Wed, Jan 7 7 @Vanderbilt L 90-96 31%     -5.1   11 - 4 1 - 1 +17.5 +13.6 +4.8
  Sat, Jan 10 45 Texas W 94-84 83%    
  Tue, Jan 13 56 @Mississippi St. W 89-83 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 49 @Oklahoma W 89-84 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 16 Tennessee W 85-81 64%    
  Tue, Jan 27 52 Missouri W 93-82 84%    
  Sun, Feb 1 12 @Florida L 85-88 39%    
  Tue, Feb 3 40 Texas A&M W 97-88 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 32 @Auburn W 90-88 55%    
  Wed, Feb 11 72 @Mississippi W 86-79 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 73 South Carolina W 89-76 89%    
  Tue, Feb 17 19 Arkansas W 96-91 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 42 @LSU W 88-85 62%    
  Wed, Feb 25 56 Mississippi St. W 92-80 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 16 @Tennessee L 82-84 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 24 @Georgia L 96-97 49%    
  Sat, Mar 7 32 Auburn W 93-85 75%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.7 5.8 5.6 2.8 0.5 17.7 1st
2nd 0.3 3.8 8.1 6.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 7.5 5.0 1.1 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.8 5.0 0.8 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 5.2 1.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 1.6 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.9 7.3 11.2 15.6 18.0 16.7 13.1 7.7 3.0 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 97.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 90.5% 2.8    2.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 72.7% 5.6    3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 44.2% 5.8    2.2 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.9% 2.7    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 8.9 6.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.7 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.7% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.1 1.7 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.1% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.6 1.2 4.2 5.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.7% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 3.1 0.5 3.2 7.4 4.7 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 18.0% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.7 0.1 1.3 6.0 7.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.6% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 4.4 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.5 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.2% 99.9% 6.6% 93.3% 5.2 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 7.3% 99.6% 4.7% 94.9% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 3.9% 96.5% 3.8% 92.7% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 96.4%
7-11 1.9% 83.1% 2.0% 81.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 82.8%
6-12 0.7% 38.0% 38.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 38.0%
5-13 0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.3 5.8%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.7% 15.9% 82.8% 4.0 5.2 14.1 25.0 21.9 14.9 8.6 3.9 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 1.3 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 61.5 35.9 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 44.1 47.1 8.8