IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.9	#12
Expected Predictive Rating	+28.5	#1

Pace	85.0	#3
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+10.5	#8

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.4	#24

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	4.9%	7.0%	2.7%
#1 Seed	18.0%	24.3%	11.3%
Top 2 Seed	36.7%	46.2%	26.5%
Top 4 Seed	63.6%	73.5%	52.9%
Top 6 Seed	76.2%	84.7%	67.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	89.5%	94.8%	83.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	88.1%	93.9%	82.3%
Average Seed	3.8	3.3	4.4

.500 or above	89.4%	95.1%	83.3%
.500 or above in Conference	78.2%	83.6%	72.3%
Conference Champion	15.3%	19.2%	11.1%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	0.8%	2.1%

First Four	4.8%	3.3%	6.4%
First Round	87.4%	93.3%	81.0%
Second Round	74.9%	82.1%	67.2%
Sweet Sixteen	46.3%	53.2%	38.9%
Elite Eight	24.0%	29.1%	18.7%
Final Four	11.9%	14.9%	8.7%
Championship Game	5.9%	7.6%	4.0%
National Champion	2.8%	3.7%	1.9%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	5 - 7	5 - 7
Quad 1b	4 - 2	10 - 9
Quad 2	5 - 1	15 - 10
Quad 3	4 - 0	19 - 11
Quad 4	2 - 0	21 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	327	North Dakota	W	91-62	99%	1 - 0			+17.1	+7.4	+8.2
Nov 08, 2025	15	@ St. John's	W	103-96	41%	2 - 0			+26.3	+21.0	+4.1
Nov 13, 2025	4	Purdue	W	82-81	52%
Nov 19, 2025	5	Illinois	L	88-90	42%
Nov 24, 2025	11	Gonzaga	L	86-87	48%
Nov 26, 2025	121	UNLV	W	89-74	91%
Dec 03, 2025	36	Clemson	W	81-74	74%
Dec 07, 2025	230	Texas San Antonio	W	96-72	98%
Dec 12, 2025	10	Arizona	L	86-87	48%
Dec 17, 2025	89	South Florida	W	97-83	90%
Dec 21, 2025	125	Kennesaw St.	W	93-78	91%
Dec 29, 2025	67	Yale	W	89-77	85%
Jan 03, 2026	7	Kentucky	W	87-85	55%
Jan 06, 2026	25	@ Vanderbilt	L	85-86	49%
Jan 10, 2026	39	Texas	W	85-77	75%
Jan 13, 2026	31	@ Mississippi St.	W	83-82	52%
Jan 17, 2026	43	@ Oklahoma	W	85-82	59%
Jan 24, 2026	18	Tennessee	W	77-73	63%
Jan 27, 2026	41	Missouri	W	89-81	76%
Feb 01, 2026	8	@ Florida	L	86-90	35%
Feb 03, 2026	33	Texas A&M	W	91-84	72%
Feb 07, 2026	34	@ Auburn	W	84-83	53%
Feb 11, 2026	37	@ Mississippi	W	82-81	54%
Feb 14, 2026	83	South Carolina	W	86-72	87%
Feb 17, 2026	17	Arkansas	W	86-82	63%
Feb 21, 2026	53	@ LSU	W	85-81	63%
Feb 25, 2026	31	Mississippi St.	W	86-79	71%
Feb 28, 2026	18	@ Tennessee	L	74-76	43%
Mar 03, 2026	23	@ Georgia	L	85-86	48%
Mar 07, 2026	34	Auburn	W	87-80	71%
Projected Record						20 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	1.4	3.7	4.6	3.3	1.7	0.4		15.3	1st
2nd												0.2	1.9	4.6	4.1	1.6	0.3	0.0			12.7	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	4.4	3.9	1.2	0.1					11.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.8	4.1	1.0	0.1						9.6	4th
5th										0.1	2.4	4.5	1.4	0.1							8.5	5th
6th									0.0	1.0	4.1	2.2	0.2								7.4	6th
7th									0.3	2.8	3.3	0.4	0.0								6.7	7th
8th								0.1	1.2	3.5	1.0	0.0									5.8	8th
9th								0.3	2.5	1.9	0.1										4.8	9th
10th							0.1	1.4	2.6	0.4	0.0										4.5	10th
11th						0.0	0.5	2.2	0.9	0.0											3.7	11th
12th					0.0	0.2	1.3	1.4	0.2												3.2	12th
13th				0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	0.5	0.0												2.6	13th
14th			0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.5	0.1													2.0	14th
15th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0													1.3	15th
16th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0															0.7	16th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.3	3.8	5.9	7.7	9.7	11.5	12.6	12.2	11.0	9.1	6.3	3.6	1.7	0.4			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	98.8%	1.7		1.6	0.1
16-2	90.6%	3.3		2.7	0.5	0.0
15-3	73.2%	4.6		3.0	1.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	40.5%	3.7		1.4	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.8%	1.4		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.3%	15.3		9.3	4.2	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		100.0%	52.6%	47.4%	1.1		0.4	0.0																	100.0%
17-1	1.7%		100.0%	44.9%	55.1%	1.1		1.5	0.2																	100.0%
16-2	3.6%		100.0%	34.1%	65.9%	1.3		2.7	0.8	0.0																100.0%
15-3	6.3%		100.0%	30.7%	69.3%	1.4		4.1	1.9	0.3	0.0	0.0														100.0%
14-4	9.1%		100.0%	23.9%	76.1%	1.7		4.1	3.8	1.0	0.1	0.0														100.0%
13-5	11.0%		100.0%	18.5%	81.5%	2.1		3.0	4.6	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0													100.0%
12-6	12.2%		100.0%	11.7%	88.3%	2.7		1.6	4.0	4.0	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0												100.0%
11-7	12.6%		100.0%	6.9%	93.1%	3.5		0.6	2.3	4.2	3.3	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
10-8	11.5%		99.8%	4.3%	95.5%	4.5		0.1	0.8	2.5	3.0	2.5	1.3	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.0		99.8%
9-9	9.7%		97.3%	2.7%	94.6%	5.9		0.0	0.1	0.9	1.7	2.1	1.7	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.1					0.3		97.2%
8-10	7.7%		85.7%	2.0%	83.7%	7.9			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.2	0.3					1.1		85.4%
7-11	5.9%		61.8%	0.6%	61.2%	9.4				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.5	1.3	0.3	0.0				2.3		61.6%
6-12	3.8%		30.2%	0.3%	29.9%	10.4					0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0				2.7		30.0%
5-13	2.3%		8.8%	0.4%	8.5%	10.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				2.1		8.5%
4-14	1.3%		1.6%		1.6%	11.2											0.0	0.0	0.0					1.3		1.6%
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		89.5%	11.6%	77.9%	3.8		18.0	18.7	15.6	11.3	7.7	4.9	2.8	1.9	1.9	1.8	3.7	1.0	0.0				10.5		88.1%