Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.3 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +17.6 #21
Pace 82.3 #2
Improvement -2.8 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #3 A- B+ A B- B
Defense #62 A- B D B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.32 #34 +1.2 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #352 1.08 #1 -2.9 #314
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.07 #100 +8.7 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #24 +7.1 #24
Freethrows 0.33 #113 75% #78 0.25 #81
Second Chance 35.0% #62 1.14 #47 0.40 #40
Turnovers 12.2% #4
Total Offense +12.6 #3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 0.98 #15 +4.8 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.71 #91 -2.2 #336
Three Pointers 36% #308 0.93 #67 +4.0 #38
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #22 +6.6 #22
Freethrows 0.28 #114 66% #5 0.19 #56
Second Chance 27.3% #66 0.92 #47 0.25 #43
Turnovers 14.4% #322
Total Defense +4.7 #62

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #34 -2.3% #26
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.1% #34 -10.9% #28
Possession Length 14.2 #4 17.8 #267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #31 0.14 #67
Improvement -2.6 #317 -0.2 #202

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 7.4% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 32.3% 45.7% 21.7%
Top 6 Seed 71.0% 84.4% 60.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.9% 99.9% 98.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 99.9% 97.8%
Average Seed 5.5 4.8 6.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 99.1% 93.3%
Conference Champion 8.1% 14.2% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 0.3% 2.3%
First Round98.3% 99.8% 97.2%
Second Round78.6% 84.7% 73.7%
Sweet Sixteen36.9% 42.9% 32.0%
Elite Eight14.2% 16.7% 12.2%
Final Four5.5% 6.5% 4.7%
Championship Game2.0% 2.5% 1.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 10
Quad 27 - 115 - 11
Quad 35 - 020 - 12
Quad 42 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 282 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  1 - 0 +19 +7 B F+ C +11 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 15 @St. John's W 103 - 96 35% +4  2 - 0 +28 +23 A- A A+ +4 B- A- C
 Thu, Nov 13 8 Purdue L 80 - 87 47% -2  2 - 1 +11 +14 A- D A+ -3 B+ B- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 5 Illinois W 90 - 86 32% +1  3 - 1 +26 +15 A+ A+ C +10 B+ A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 14 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 46% -1  3 - 2 +8 +14 A+ B- A- -5 A- F C
 Tue, Nov 25 129 UNLV W 115 - 76 92% +16  4 - 2 +41 +29 A+ A+ A- +7 B+ A F+
 Wed, Nov 26 116 Maryland W 105 - 72 90% +20  5 - 2 +36 +25 A+ A+ B- +8 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 37 Clemson W 90 - 84 73% +9  6 - 2 +17 +22 A+ A A+ -6 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 343 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  7 - 2 +27 +8 F+ C+ A+ +15 B+ A A
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 25% -7  7 - 3 +3 +9 A+ F C -4 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 70 South Florida W 104 - 93 87% +8  8 - 3 +16 +21 B+ A B- -6 A- F B
 Sun, Dec 21 146 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 93% +18  9 - 3 +12 +9 C B- A+ +2 B F+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 79 Yale W 102 - 78 89% +19  10 - 3 +28 +29 B+ A+ A+ -0 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 26 Kentucky W 89 - 74 66% +11  11 - 3 1 - 0 +28 +20 A+ A- B+ +8 A+ B- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 12 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 33% -5  11 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +13 D- A+ A +4 A+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 30 Texas L 88 - 92 71% -5  11 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +15 B+ B- A+ -7 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 76 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 74% +5  12 - 5 2 - 2 +26 +22 A- A- A+ +2 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 57 @Oklahoma W 83 - 81 68% -2  13 - 5 3 - 2 +14 +8 C B- B- +6 A+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 16 Tennessee L 73 - 79 59% +1  13 - 6 3 - 3 +9 +11 C A- A+ -2 C A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 27 53 Missouri W 90 - 64 83% +12  14 - 6 4 - 3 +33 +14 B C A+ +18 A+ B C
 Sun, Feb 1 7 @Florida L 77 - 100 24% -11  14 - 7 4 - 4 +2 +9 A+ B+ F -6 C B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 27 Texas A&M W 100 - 97 67% +0  15 - 7 5 - 4 +16 +22 B+ C+ A+ -7 C A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 28 @Auburn L 88 - 89 44%
 Wed, Feb 11 60 @Mississippi W 84 - 79 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 87 South Carolina W 90 - 76 91%
 Tue, Feb 17 24 Arkansas W 95 - 91 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 24 Arkansas W 95 - 91 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 48 @LSU W 88 - 85 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 76 Mississippi St. W 92 - 79 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 16 @Tennessee L 80 - 84 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 35 @Georgia W 95 - 94 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 Auburn W 91 - 86 67%
Totals 21 - 11 11 - 8 +17 +13 A- B+ A +5 A- B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 4.0 1.3 8.1 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 8.5 2.7 0.1 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.8 9.5 4.1 0.2 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 5.1 8.2 0.5 13.9 4th
5th 1.2 8.6 2.4 12.1 5th
6th 0.2 4.7 6.3 0.2 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.7 1.5 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 3.1 3.7 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.0 0.7 4.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 8.8 17.0 22.5 23.5 15.7 6.9 1.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 90.5% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 57.8% 4.0    1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 16.8% 2.6    0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 2.2 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.5% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.9% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 3.1 0.3 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.7% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.9 0.1 1.0 4.5 6.2 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.5% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.8 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.0 8.1 4.9 1.2 0.1 100.0%
11-7 22.5% 99.9% 6.8% 93.1% 5.7 0.0 0.7 2.3 6.2 7.4 4.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 17.0% 99.6% 4.3% 95.4% 6.7 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 5.8 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 99.6%
9-9 8.8% 98.1% 3.5% 94.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.2 98.0%
8-10 3.2% 89.9% 1.9% 88.0% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.3 89.7%
7-11 0.8% 50.6% 1.2% 49.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 50.0%
6-12 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.9% 9.5% 89.4% 5.5 1.2 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.8 31.3 59.4 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 2.0 35.3 29.4 35.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 2.5 10.5 44.7 31.6 13.2