Alabama
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#13
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#45
Pace80.5#12
Improvement-0.9#250

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#13
First Shot+4.6#49
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#5
Layup/Dunks+2.0#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#40
Freethrows-1.0#239
Improvement-0.9#269

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#28
First Shot+6.3#23
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#143
Layups/Dunks+5.3#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#59
Freethrows+1.0#129
Improvement+0.0#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.0% 5.4% 2.0%
#1 Seed 14.0% 21.3% 11.1%
Top 2 Seed 29.5% 41.7% 24.7%
Top 4 Seed 56.0% 70.2% 50.4%
Top 6 Seed 74.0% 85.7% 69.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 97.3% 90.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.8% 96.7% 88.7%
Average Seed 4.3 3.5 4.6
.500 or above 96.2% 99.0% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 92.2% 88.0%
Conference Champion 18.7% 23.8% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four2.6% 1.2% 3.1%
First Round91.1% 97.0% 88.9%
Second Round72.5% 80.0% 69.5%
Sweet Sixteen43.2% 49.5% 40.7%
Elite Eight22.4% 27.8% 20.3%
Final Four10.7% 14.2% 9.4%
Championship Game4.9% 6.8% 4.1%
National Champion2.1% 2.9% 1.8%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 214 - 10
Quad 37 - 121 - 11
Quad 42 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech W 93-64 90%     1 - 0 +30.1 +16.1 +13.1
  Nov 12, 2021 70   South Dakota St. W 104-88 85%     2 - 0 +20.2 +14.5 +3.6
  Nov 16, 2021 157   South Alabama W 73-68 94%     3 - 0 +2.6 -10.0 +11.9
  Nov 19, 2021 124   Oakland W 86-59 92%     4 - 0 +26.8 +12.9 +13.3
  Nov 25, 2021 106   Iona L 68-72 85%     4 - 1 +0.2 -5.7 +6.2
  Nov 26, 2021 58   Drake W 80-71 77%     5 - 1 +16.9 +6.6 +9.8
  Nov 28, 2021 120   Miami (FL) W 96-64 88%     6 - 1 +35.0 +21.4 +13.2
  Dec 04, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 83-89 28%    
  Dec 11, 2021 7   Houston W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 14, 2021 23   @ Memphis L 79-80 44%    
  Dec 18, 2021 149   Jacksonville St. W 83-66 94%    
  Dec 20, 2021 42   Colorado St. W 84-79 68%    
  Dec 29, 2021 18   Tennessee W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 05, 2022 14   @ Florida L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 132   @ Missouri W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 11, 2022 21   Auburn W 84-79 66%    
  Jan 15, 2022 38   @ Mississippi St. W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 19, 2022 10   LSU W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 132   Missouri W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 25, 2022 159   @ Georgia W 85-73 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 3   Baylor L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 01, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 81-82 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 12   Kentucky W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 69   @ Mississippi W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 24   Arkansas W 85-80 67%    
  Feb 16, 2022 38   Mississippi St. W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 22, 2022 77   @ Vanderbilt W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 98   South Carolina W 87-74 89%    
  Mar 02, 2022 80   Texas A&M W 78-66 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 10   @ LSU L 78-82 36%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 4.7 6.2 3.9 1.8 0.4 18.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.6 5.7 1.7 0.2 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.8 5.4 1.0 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.6 4.6 5.5 1.3 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 5.4 1.8 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.3 0.3 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.3 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 10.9 13.7 15.3 14.9 11.5 7.9 4.2 1.8 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.1
16-2 94.1% 3.9    3.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 77.8% 6.2    3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.2% 4.7    1.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.5% 1.6    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 11.2 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 65.4% 34.6% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.2% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.9% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 1.7 3.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.5% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.3 3.0 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.9% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.9 1.7 4.3 4.3 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.3% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 4.0 0.5 1.9 3.6 4.2 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.7% 99.2% 9.3% 89.9% 5.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.1%
10-8 10.9% 97.4% 5.3% 92.1% 6.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.2%
9-9 8.6% 86.5% 2.2% 84.3% 7.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 86.2%
8-10 5.4% 63.6% 3.5% 60.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.0 62.2%
7-11 3.0% 29.0% 0.7% 28.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 28.5%
6-12 1.4% 14.9% 14.9% 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 14.9%
5-13 0.6% 3.5% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.6 3.5%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.2% 14.4% 77.8% 4.3 14.0 15.6 13.9 12.5 10.1 8.0 5.7 3.8 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.8 90.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.5 4.5