Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#133
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#146
Pace69.4#175
Improvement-1.8#312

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#67
First Shot+9.3#8
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#357
Layup/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.3#2
Freethrows-2.5#316
Improvement-1.0#284

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#242
First Shot-2.2#253
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#154
Layups/Dunks-0.4#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#316
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement-0.8#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 23.7% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 75.1% 82.4% 62.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 90.1% 83.8%
Conference Champion 30.7% 34.4% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round21.0% 23.6% 16.5%
Second Round2.5% 3.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 411 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 7   @ Houston L 75-83 OT 5%     0 - 1 +12.6 +11.9 +0.8
  Nov 13, 2021 194   @ Duquesne W 73-63 53%     1 - 1 +11.5 +5.5 +6.7
  Nov 16, 2021 106   @ Iona L 74-82 32%     1 - 2 -0.8 +2.8 -3.2
  Nov 19, 2021 52   @ Maryland L 67-69 19%     1 - 3 +9.7 +0.2 +9.6
  Nov 22, 2021 83   @ Richmond L 68-81 24%     1 - 4 -3.4 +2.3 -6.7
  Nov 27, 2021 231   Detroit Mercy W 98-84 80%     2 - 4 +7.6 +11.7 -4.9
  Dec 01, 2021 151   Princeton W 77-73 64%    
  Dec 04, 2021 291   Bucknell W 84-72 87%    
  Dec 08, 2021 219   @ Stony Brook W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 18, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 72-86 10%    
  Dec 22, 2021 135   @ Monmouth L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 29, 2021 332   @ William & Mary W 79-68 84%    
  Dec 31, 2021 273   @ Elon W 79-74 70%    
  Jan 03, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 05, 2022 198   College of Charleston W 87-80 74%    
  Jan 09, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 11, 2022 164   @ Towson L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 161   Delaware W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 17, 2022 169   Drexel W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 27, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston W 84-83 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 03, 2022 164   Towson W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 163   James Madison W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 10, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 148   Northeastern W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 24, 2022 273   Elon W 82-71 84%    
  Feb 26, 2022 332   William & Mary W 82-65 93%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.0 8.1 7.9 5.4 2.0 0.5 30.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.6 7.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.2 5.1 1.7 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.6 5.1 1.0 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.9 8.1 10.5 12.8 14.5 13.8 11.5 8.7 5.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0
16-2 99.2% 5.4    5.1 0.2
15-3 91.0% 7.9    6.8 1.1
14-4 70.1% 8.1    5.0 2.7 0.4
13-5 36.2% 5.0    2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1
12-6 12.1% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.7% 30.7 21.7 6.8 1.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 53.5% 45.4% 8.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 14.9%
17-1 2.0% 54.7% 53.6% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 2.3%
16-2 5.4% 41.5% 41.0% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.2 0.8%
15-3 8.7% 40.7% 40.7% 13.3 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.3 5.1
14-4 11.5% 29.2% 29.2% 13.6 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.5 8.2
13-5 13.8% 25.5% 25.5% 14.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 10.3
12-6 14.5% 22.0% 22.0% 14.4 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 11.3
11-7 12.8% 13.7% 13.7% 14.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 11.0
10-8 10.5% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 9.4
9-9 8.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 7.5
8-10 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 5.5
7-11 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 3.1
6-12 1.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 21.2% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.3 5.1 6.7 5.1 1.6 78.7 0.1%