Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#107
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#92
Pace69.2#147
Improvement+0.3#157

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#76
First Shot+4.0#64
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#227
Layup/Dunks+0.5#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#47
Freethrows-2.8#349
Improvement-0.7#294

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#313
Layups/Dunks+0.3#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#212
Freethrows+2.8#20
Improvement+0.9#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 24.1% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 34.5% 43.6% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round22.7% 24.1% 19.6%
Second Round3.5% 3.8% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 3
Quad 35 - 48 - 7
Quad 412 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 115   @ Princeton W 83-77 42%     1 - 0 +11.7 +10.5 +1.1
  Nov 11, 2022 85   Iona W 83-78 52%     2 - 0 +8.1 +15.6 -7.2
  Nov 14, 2022 191   George Washington W 85-80 77%     3 - 0 +1.1 +9.8 -8.5
  Nov 17, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. W 85-76 44%     4 - 0 +14.4 +15.4 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 48-76 10%     4 - 1 -10.3 -13.5 +3.4
  Nov 25, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee L 54-64 54%     4 - 2 -7.3 -11.9 +3.8
  Nov 26, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro W 65-53 58%     5 - 2 +13.7 -0.8 +14.8
  Nov 27, 2022 133   Quinnipiac W 72-70 57%     6 - 2 +3.9 -3.2 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2022 122   @ George Mason L 77-81 OT 44%     6 - 3 +1.4 +1.4 +0.3
  Dec 07, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 66-85 7%     6 - 4 +1.8 +5.4 -4.5
  Dec 11, 2022 143   Massachusetts L 56-71 58%     6 - 5 -13.4 -15.8 +2.5
  Dec 19, 2022 129   @ South Florida L 70-77 45%     6 - 6 -2.0 +2.1 -4.3
  Dec 29, 2022 206   @ Delaware W 87-73 61%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +14.9 +14.2 +0.7
  Dec 31, 2022 277   N.C. A&T L 79-81 87%     7 - 7 1 - 1 -10.7 +0.9 -11.6
  Jan 05, 2023 342   @ Hampton W 67-51 88%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +7.0 -7.0 +15.2
  Jan 07, 2023 305   @ William & Mary W 75-62 80%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +7.9 +0.0 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2023 351   Monmouth W 77-57 95%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +4.6 +8.6 -1.7
  Jan 14, 2023 206   Delaware W 86-62 78%     11 - 7 5 - 1 +19.5 +5.6 +12.5
  Jan 16, 2023 141   @ Towson L 47-68 48%     11 - 8 5 - 2 -16.6 -19.2 +0.3
  Jan 19, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington W 70-46 71%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +22.0 +6.6 +18.4
  Jan 26, 2023 334   @ Elon W 82-65 86%     13 - 8 7 - 2 +9.4 +10.2 +0.1
  Jan 28, 2023 83   @ College of Charleston W 85-81 30%     14 - 8 8 - 2 +13.3 +15.9 -2.6
  Feb 02, 2023 141   Towson W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 313   Stony Brook W 76-61 92%    
  Feb 08, 2023 252   @ Northeastern W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 11, 2023 351   @ Monmouth W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 13, 2023 202   Drexel W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 16, 2023 342   Hampton W 84-66 96%    
  Feb 18, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 25, 2023 252   Northeastern W 76-65 86%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.1 14.1 17.1 34.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 6.4 20.6 21.5 5.2 54.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 2.3 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 11.7 26.0 35.7 22.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 76.7% 17.1    8.8 8.3
15-3 39.5% 14.1    4.3 8.8 1.0
14-4 12.0% 3.1    0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1
13-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.5% 34.5 13.5 18.8 2.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 22.3% 29.1% 28.9% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.0 15.8 0.4%
15-3 35.7% 23.7% 23.7% 12.6 0.2 3.5 4.2 0.5 0.0 27.2
14-4 26.0% 20.0% 20.0% 12.9 0.0 1.3 3.0 0.9 0.0 20.8
13-5 11.7% 16.3% 16.3% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 9.8
12-6 3.4% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.9
11-7 0.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 0.1% 17.3% 17.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.7% 22.6% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 1.5 9.0 9.7 2.4 0.1 0.0 77.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.3% 29.1% 12.0 0.1 5.6 17.4 5.8 0.2