Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#113
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#100
Pace65.4#288
Improvement+2.8#37

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#127
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+3.6#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#110
First Shot+1.7#117
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#174
Layups/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#196
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement-0.8#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 23.2% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 96.7% 98.3% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 95.4% 91.4%
Conference Champion 32.0% 34.3% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.8% 23.2% 18.0%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 36 - 58 - 8
Quad 413 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 55 @Central Florida L 78-82 19%     0 - 1 +8.9 +6.7 +2.4
  Fri, Nov 7 171 @Iona L 73-81 55%     0 - 2 -5.9 -3.3 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 14 305 @Bucknell W 83-77 79%     1 - 2 +1.2 +4.3 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 19 148 @Temple L 76-81 48%     1 - 3 -1.1 +1.9 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 236 La Salle W 63-58 77%     2 - 3 +0.7 -6.8 +7.7
  Sat, Nov 29 265 Merrimack W 78-58 81%     3 - 3 +14.3 +6.9 +8.3
  Sun, Nov 30 251 @Penn W 77-60 71%     4 - 3 +14.7 +5.6 +9.9
  Wed, Dec 3 128 @Columbia L 70-72 45%     4 - 4 +2.8 +3.7 -1.0
  Sun, Dec 7 102 @Pittsburgh W 80-73 34%     5 - 4 +14.6 +20.2 -4.7
  Sat, Dec 13 72 @Syracuse W 70-69 24%     6 - 4 +11.8 +17.7 -5.7
  Sun, Dec 21 158 Quinnipiac W 77-71 73%    
  Mon, Dec 29 230 Campbell W 80-69 84%    
  Sat, Jan 3 288 @Drexel W 71-64 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 140 @Towson L 66-67 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 235 Monmouth W 77-66 84%    
  Thu, Jan 15 237 @Stony Brook W 71-66 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 178 Elon W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 304 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 121 @William & Mary L 77-79 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 184 College of Charleston W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 235 @Monmouth W 74-69 67%    
  Thu, Feb 5 215 Northeastern W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 140 Towson W 69-64 68%    
  Thu, Feb 12 184 @College of Charleston W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 109 @UNC Wilmington L 68-71 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 228 Hampton W 74-64 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 215 @Northeastern W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 237 Stony Brook W 74-63 83%    
  Tue, Mar 3 288 Drexel W 74-61 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.5 9.4 6.9 3.1 0.6 32.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 8.1 6.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.2 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.3 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.4 8.6 11.5 14.8 16.1 14.8 12.0 7.3 3.1 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.3% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 94.9% 6.9    5.9 1.0 0.0
15-3 78.4% 9.4    6.6 2.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 50.8% 7.5    3.6 3.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 22.8% 3.7    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 20.8 8.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 41.8% 39.6% 2.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.6%
17-1 3.1% 43.1% 43.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.8 0.2%
16-2 7.3% 38.8% 38.8% 12.0 0.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.5
15-3 12.0% 33.1% 33.1% 12.3 0.2 2.6 1.1 0.1 8.0
14-4 14.8% 28.0% 28.0% 12.5 0.1 2.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.7
13-5 16.1% 23.3% 23.3% 12.8 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.4
12-6 14.8% 18.3% 18.3% 13.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 12.1
11-7 11.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 10.0
10-8 8.6% 9.0% 9.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.8
9-9 5.4% 6.0% 6.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-10 3.2% 5.3% 5.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.5% 3.6% 3.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 9.2 8.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.9 1.6 6.6 14.8 9.8 16.4 44.3 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.3% 11.0 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 2.6% 11.0 2.6