N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#318
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#218
Pace72.4#114
Improvement-0.7#237

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#296
First Shot-3.1#269
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#272
Layup/Dunks-4.3#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#269
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+1.0#82

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#310
First Shot-6.1#345
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#55
Layups/Dunks-4.4#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#247
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement-1.8#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 9.4% 20.9% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 8.7% 14.5% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 47.6% 37.5% 50.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 86 @South Carolina L 72-91 6%     0 - 1 -9.8 -1.9 -6.4
  Mon, Nov 10 348 South Carolina St. W 85-62 73%     1 - 1 +8.4 -4.5 +9.8
  Tue, Nov 18 360 @Morgan St. W 79-73 60%     2 - 1 -5.1 +0.9 -5.9
  Fri, Nov 28 132 @Davidson L 74-90 11%     2 - 2 -11.1 +8.0 -20.1
  Wed, Dec 3 199 @Charlotte L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Dec 6 350 @NC Central W 74-73 53%    
  Tue, Dec 9 314 Howard L 75-76 49%    
  Fri, Dec 12 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-63 70%    
  Tue, Dec 16 286 @UNC Greensboro L 72-77 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 102 UNC Wilmington L 67-77 18%    
  Wed, Dec 31 194 Northeastern L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 3 222 @Stony Brook L 68-76 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 187 Elon L 75-79 37%    
  Thu, Jan 15 131 @William & Mary L 76-89 11%    
  Mon, Jan 19 232 @Hampton L 68-75 26%    
  Thu, Jan 22 157 Hofstra L 69-74 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 129 Towson L 65-73 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 200 @Monmouth L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 260 @Drexel L 67-73 29%    
  Thu, Feb 5 151 @College of Charleston L 68-79 16%    
  Sat, Feb 7 224 Campbell L 76-78 45%    
  Fri, Feb 13 232 Hampton L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Feb 19 151 College of Charleston L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 187 @Elon L 72-82 20%    
  Thu, Feb 26 102 @UNC Wilmington L 64-80 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 131 William & Mary L 79-86 26%    
  Tue, Mar 3 224 @Campbell L 73-81 25%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.1 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 2.0 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.6 7.3 5.0 1.0 0.0 19.3 12th
13th 2.5 6.9 10.2 9.6 4.9 1.2 0.1 35.3 13th
Total 2.5 7.0 11.5 14.7 15.2 14.1 11.7 8.5 6.2 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 51.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 16.1% 16.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 11.7% 11.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.6% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.3% 6.2% 6.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-9 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-10 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.1
7-11 8.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.5
6-12 11.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.7
5-13 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-14 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
3-15 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
2-16 11.5% 11.5
1-17 7.0% 7.0
0-18 2.5% 2.5
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%