N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-16.0#360
Expected Predictive Rating-17.0#352
Pace75.9#38
Improvement-0.4#220

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#326
First Shot-4.4#298
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#264
Layup/Dunks-5.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense-10.0#361
First Shot-9.1#360
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#254
Layups/Dunks-7.5#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#302
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement-0.5#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 1.8% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 67.2% 60.5% 69.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 44 - 144 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 53   @ Pittsburgh L 52-100 1%     0 - 1 -35.3 -17.5 -15.1
  Nov 10, 2023 102   @ UNC Greensboro L 78-94 3%     0 - 2 -8.5 +6.5 -14.4
  Nov 14, 2023 44   @ Virginia L 51-80 1%     0 - 3 -15.5 -5.8 -13.1
  Nov 22, 2023 296   Merrimack L 73-96 20%     0 - 4 -30.3 -7.2 -20.4
  Nov 24, 2023 331   Alabama St. L 73-88 29%     0 - 5 -25.2 -3.7 -21.5
  Nov 25, 2023 162   @ Samford L 83-101 5%     0 - 6 -14.9 +0.3 -13.1
  Dec 02, 2023 280   The Citadel L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 08, 2023 227   @ High Point L 76-92 7%    
  Dec 12, 2023 274   NC Central L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 16, 2023 235   Texas Southern L 70-82 13%    
  Dec 17, 2023 259   Jackson St. L 74-85 16%    
  Dec 21, 2023 308   @ Coastal Carolina L 73-84 16%    
  Dec 30, 2023 111   @ George Mason L 62-85 2%    
  Jan 04, 2024 310   Campbell L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 06, 2024 292   @ Elon L 75-87 15%    
  Jan 11, 2024 147   Drexel L 61-75 10%    
  Jan 15, 2024 324   @ Hampton L 78-87 20%    
  Jan 18, 2024 223   Northeastern L 72-82 19%    
  Jan 20, 2024 311   William & Mary L 76-81 34%    
  Jan 25, 2024 172   @ Delaware L 67-86 5%    
  Jan 27, 2024 147   @ Drexel L 58-78 4%    
  Feb 01, 2024 324   Hampton L 81-84 38%    
  Feb 03, 2024 292   Elon L 78-84 30%    
  Feb 08, 2024 123   @ College of Charleston L 70-92 2%    
  Feb 10, 2024 106   Hofstra L 69-86 7%    
  Feb 15, 2024 136   @ UNC Wilmington L 63-84 4%    
  Feb 17, 2024 172   Delaware L 70-83 13%    
  Feb 22, 2024 258   @ Stony Brook L 64-78 12%    
  Feb 24, 2024 245   @ Monmouth L 70-85 10%    
  Feb 29, 2024 199   Towson L 64-75 16%    
  Mar 02, 2024 310   @ Campbell L 65-76 18%    
Projected Record 4 - 27 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 11.9 12th
13th 0.4 3.7 8.1 7.2 1.8 0.1 21.3 13th
14th 8.6 16.7 17.4 8.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 53.5 14th
Total 8.6 17.2 21.3 18.1 15.1 10.1 5.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 1.2% 1.2
7-11 2.5% 2.5
6-12 5.2% 5.2
5-13 10.1% 10.1
4-14 15.1% 15.1
3-15 18.1% 18.1
2-16 21.3% 21.3
1-17 17.2% 17.2
0-18 8.6% 8.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%