N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#277
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#252
Pace71.7#92
Improvement+0.3#148

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#247
First Shot-1.6#238
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#233
Layup/Dunks-2.9#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement-0.3#250

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#288
First Shot-1.4#226
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#344
Layups/Dunks-1.2#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#200
Freethrows-0.7#247
Improvement+0.7#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.6% 17.4% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 94.9% 74.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 49 - 511 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 30   @ Iowa L 71-112 4%     0 - 1 -25.7 -8.1 -12.1
  Nov 13, 2022 22   @ Iowa St. L 43-80 3%     0 - 2 -20.5 -18.0 -3.8
  Nov 19, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb L 64-66 32%     0 - 3 -3.2 -3.1 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2022 215   @ Wofford L 64-78 27%     0 - 4 -13.5 -3.5 -11.9
  Nov 30, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro W 73-56 32%     1 - 4 +16.0 +5.0 +11.1
  Dec 13, 2022 1   @ Houston L 46-74 1%     1 - 5 -5.8 -13.5 +6.7
  Dec 17, 2022 314   Texas Southern W 67-66 OT 59%     2 - 5 -7.2 -12.8 +5.6
  Dec 18, 2022 203   Norfolk St. L 66-70 34%     2 - 6 -5.7 -2.2 -4.0
  Dec 21, 2022 175   @ UTEP L 62-75 21%     2 - 7 -10.4 -1.0 -10.1
  Dec 22, 2022 184   New Mexico St. L 76-85 30%     2 - 8 -9.7 +3.4 -13.2
  Dec 29, 2022 252   @ Northeastern L 76-88 35%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -14.0 +8.5 -23.3
  Dec 31, 2022 107   @ Hofstra W 81-79 13%     3 - 9 1 - 1 +8.5 +9.7 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2023 83   College of Charleston L 79-92 18%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -9.2 -2.2 -5.4
  Jan 07, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington L 61-66 35%     3 - 11 1 - 3 -7.0 -9.8 +2.6
  Jan 11, 2023 334   @ Elon W 80-71 56%     4 - 11 2 - 3 +1.4 +1.8 -0.7
  Jan 14, 2023 313   Stony Brook W 61-59 68%     5 - 11 3 - 3 -8.9 -12.3 +3.6
  Jan 16, 2023 342   @ Hampton W 79-67 62%     6 - 11 4 - 3 +3.0 +1.2 +2.0
  Jan 19, 2023 141   Towson L 67-79 32%     6 - 12 4 - 4 -13.1 -1.1 -13.0
  Jan 21, 2023 305   @ William & Mary W 90-86 47%     7 - 12 5 - 4 -1.1 -1.5 -0.2
  Jan 26, 2023 202   Drexel W 68-55 44%     8 - 12 6 - 4 +8.6 -7.4 +15.7
  Jan 28, 2023 351   Monmouth L 64-79 81%     8 - 13 6 - 5 -30.4 -13.3 -17.1
  Feb 02, 2023 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-73 18%    
  Feb 08, 2023 334   Elon W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 11, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 13, 2023 351   @ Monmouth W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 141   @ Towson L 64-74 16%    
  Feb 23, 2023 206   Delaware L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 342   Hampton W 80-71 80%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.3 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 6.6 2.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.3 5.1 16.1 7.4 0.3 29.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 15.7 10.1 0.9 30.2 6th
7th 0.7 7.3 7.2 0.7 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.6 4.8 16.4 28.9 29.0 15.7 4.1 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
11-7 15.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.6
10-8 29.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 28.9
9-9 28.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 28.8
8-10 16.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.4
7-11 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 1.9% 15.3 1.4 0.5
Lose Out 0.6%