Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #252
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #270
Pace 73.7 #59
Improvement -2.6 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #164 C+ C- C- C- B-
Defense #322 D- C- C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #37 1.18 #150 +4.1 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #256 0.71 #252 -1.8 #275
Three Pointers 38% #236 1.03 #164 -1.0 #219
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #136 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 0.29 #219 69% #284 0.20 #234
Second Chance 27.7% #259 1.04 #195 0.29 #246
Turnovers 17.2% #242
Total Offense -0.1 #164

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #37 1.23 #280 -5.0 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.95 #363 -1.8 #314
Three Pointers 36% #316 1.11 #302 +1.0 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.8 #338
Freethrows 0.34 #301 74% #288 0.25 #313
Second Chance 34.4% #317 0.98 #92 0.34 #232
Turnovers 17.6% #99
Total Defense -5.1 #322

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #62 0.9% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #163 10.3% #336
Possession Length 16.8 #116 16.6 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #79 0.17 #184
Improvement +4.9 #6 -7.5 #365

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 4.1% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.9% 26.1% 53.7%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 105 - 14
Quad 45 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 286 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 68% +2  0 - 1 -11 -10 F D+ F -1 B- C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 214 @Colgate W 68 - 65 31% -1  1 - 1 +3 -3 D F A- +6 B B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 178 @Harvard W 77 - 60 26% +9  2 - 1 +19 +9 C C A +11 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 200 Vermont L 74 - 85 50% -0  2 - 2 -16 -2 D A F -14 F B- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 213 @Princeton L 57 - 70 31% -10  2 - 3 -13 -12 F D F -2 A- F A
 Sat, Nov 22 121 Duquesne W 93 - 86 23% +3  3 - 3 +10 +5 A+ D- F +3 D A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 69 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 7% -7  3 - 4 -2 +3 A+ F F -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 323 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 57% -13  3 - 5 -24 -14 F D+ F -11 F B- D
 Sun, Dec 7 293 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 69% +14  4 - 5 +7 -4 C- C- D +11 A+ A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 8% -7  4 - 6 +3 +16 A+ B C -13 F C C+
 Mon, Dec 22 109 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 13% -6  4 - 7 -1 +15 A+ D- C+ -17 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 183 @Elon L 91 - 103 27% -5  4 - 8 0 - 1 -11 +13 A+ D D- -23 F F A-
 Wed, Dec 31 288 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 46% +4  5 - 8 1 - 1 +7 +15 B+ B- B- -8 C- C- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 222 @Campbell L 82 - 97 32% -8  5 - 9 1 - 2 -16 +5 C+ D+ B- -20 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 115 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 30% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -9 +2 B- D+ B+ -10 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 Towson L 78 - 87 44% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -13 +7 B D A -20 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 183 Elon W 85 - 78 48% +4  6 - 11 2 - 4 +2 +0 D+ A+ C+ +2 D+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 199 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 28% -1  6 - 12 2 - 5 -12 -4 C F F -8 D- D F+
 Thu, Jan 22 223 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 55% -9  6 - 13 2 - 6 -22 +2 D A+ A- -23 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 201 @Drexel L 78 - 83 29% -6  6 - 14 2 - 7 -4 +9 C+ B- A -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 154 College of Charleston L 78 - 81 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 134 @Hofstra L 72 - 82 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 223 @Stony Brook L 73 - 78 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 135 William & Mary L 84 - 88 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 201 Drexel W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 134 Hofstra L 75 - 79 36%
 Thu, Feb 26 135 @William & Mary L 81 - 91 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 237 @Hampton L 73 - 77 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 199 Monmouth W 76 - 75 49%
Totals 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5 +0 C+ C- C- -5 D- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.3 4th
5th 0.4 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 0.3 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.3 3.6 1.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.2 3.9 5.4 0.4 9.9 10th
11th 0.5 4.4 8.7 2.4 0.0 16.0 11th
12th 0.1 2.8 11.9 16.6 7.2 0.1 38.7 12th
13th 2.8 8.5 9.3 3.8 0.2 24.6 13th
Total 2.9 11.3 21.6 25.1 20.3 12.0 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 4.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.8
7-11 12.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-12 20.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.2
5-13 25.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 25.0
4-14 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.6
3-15 11.3% 11.3
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%