Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#148
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#141
Pace64.4#299
Improvement+1.4#72

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#274
First Shot-3.1#272
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks-1.1#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#245
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement+0.4#127

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#53
First Shot+4.1#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#118
Layups/Dunks-4.1#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#32
Freethrows+1.9#73
Improvement+1.0#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 18.8% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 75.5% 84.2% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 86.5% 80.7%
Conference Champion 22.7% 25.0% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round16.7% 18.6% 14.6%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 53.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 38 - 78 - 12
Quad 410 - 219 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 111   @ Colgate L 58-65 31%     0 - 1 -0.4 -12.9 +12.3
  Nov 12, 2021 141   @ Georgia St. L 64-83 37%     0 - 2 -14.1 -4.0 -11.4
  Nov 16, 2021 144   Boston University W 49-48 61%     1 - 2 -0.3 -18.8 +18.6
  Nov 19, 2021 194   Duquesne W 71-55 61%     2 - 2 +14.5 +0.6 +14.7
  Nov 21, 2021 154   Southern Illinois W 59-47 53%     3 - 2 +12.8 -8.8 +22.3
  Nov 22, 2021 42   Colorado St. L 61-71 20%     3 - 3 +0.4 -7.4 +7.3
  Nov 27, 2021 131   @ Harvard L 57-77 35%     3 - 4 -14.7 -13.1 -1.3
  Nov 30, 2021 231   Detroit Mercy W 66-56 77%     4 - 4 +3.6 -4.3 +9.5
  Dec 03, 2021 111   Colgate W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 07, 2021 116   Massachusetts W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 12, 2021 73   Davidson L 61-64 40%    
  Dec 19, 2021 104   Vermont W 60-59 51%    
  Dec 22, 2021 39   St. Bonaventure L 58-64 28%    
  Dec 29, 2021 273   @ Elon W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 31, 2021 332   @ William & Mary W 69-59 82%    
  Jan 03, 2022 198   College of Charleston W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 05, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington W 67-56 84%    
  Jan 09, 2022 164   @ Towson L 61-63 45%    
  Jan 11, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 169   Drexel W 65-60 65%    
  Jan 17, 2022 161   Delaware W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 133   Hofstra W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington W 64-59 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 03, 2022 163   James Madison W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 164   Towson W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 24, 2022 332   William & Mary W 72-56 92%    
  Feb 26, 2022 273   Elon W 72-61 82%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 6.0 6.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 22.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 6.0 6.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.9 5.6 1.9 0.2 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 6.2 4.8 1.1 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 4.1 4.4 1.0 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.7 0.5 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.2 9.2 13.3 13.7 14.5 12.9 9.2 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
16-2 97.9% 2.9    2.7 0.1
15-3 89.4% 6.1    5.2 0.9 0.0
14-4 65.2% 6.0    3.6 2.2 0.2
13-5 35.5% 4.6    1.5 2.2 0.8 0.1
12-6 11.8% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 14.7 6.0 1.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 65.3% 55.1% 10.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 22.7%
17-1 1.1% 50.3% 46.6% 3.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 6.9%
16-2 2.9% 36.7% 36.7% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9
15-3 6.8% 34.1% 34.1% 13.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5
14-4 9.2% 31.0% 31.0% 13.5 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 6.4
13-5 12.9% 22.1% 22.1% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 10.0
12-6 14.5% 17.0% 17.0% 14.2 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 12.0
11-7 13.7% 13.3% 13.3% 14.6 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 11.9
10-8 13.3% 9.7% 9.7% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 12.0
9-9 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 8.4
8-10 7.2% 7.0% 7.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.7
7-11 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.6
6-12 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-13 1.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.3 4.1 1.5 83.0 0.1%