Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 289
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 298
Pace 72.7 71
Improvement -5.0 345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 218 C C- C- D B-
Defense D- 327 F+ C C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 54 C 59% 151 +3.2 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 201 C 38% 187 -1.1 239
Three Pointers 39% 230 C- 33% 222 -1.8 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 90 C -0.3 185
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 169
Second Chance D+ 26.7% 285 C+ 1.05 140 C- 0.28 250
Turnovers C- 17.4% 216
Freethrows D+ 0.28 267 D 69% 301 D 0.19 296
Total Offense C- -1.6 218

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 164 C- 11.9% 237
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 60 B 3.3% 61
Three Pointers B 91% 42 C- 1.1% 236
Total C+ 59% 109 C- 6.2% 241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 26 D- 64% 332 +6.6 356
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 223 F 47% 356 +1.0 269
Three Pointers 36% 315 D 36% 290 -1.1 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 295 F+ +5.6 352
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 352
Second Chance D+ 32.6% 274 C+ 0.99 116 C 0.32 208
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 140
Freethrows D+ 0.34 292 C- 73% 239 D+ 0.25 293
Total Defense D- -5.7 327

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 187 D+ 8.2% 291
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 134 C- 3.8% 245
Three Pointers D+ 87% 264 A- 2.2% 23
Total C+ 54% 148 C- 5.2% 203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 117 16.6 65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 94 0.17 173
Improvement +1.3 #123 -6.3 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 85% 64% 91%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 21.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 44 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 54% +2  65% 0 - 1 D -9 F -13 F D F B +4 B C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 236 @Colgate W 68 - 65 28% -1  33% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D -6 D F A A- +8 B- A- C
 Tue, Nov 11 167 @Harvard W 77 - 60 17% +9  73% 2 - 1 A +20 B+ +8 C+ C+ A A+ +13 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 229 Vermont L 74 - 85 48% -0  60% 2 - 2 F -18 D -5 D A F F -13 F B- B
 Thu, Nov 20 247 @Princeton L 57 - 70 29% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -17 F D F C+ +2 A- F A
 Sat, Nov 22 111 Duquesne W 93 - 86 15% +3  90% 3 - 3 B +11 B- +4 A+ D- F B+ +6 D- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 61 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 5% -7  2% 3 - 4 C -1 C- -1 A+ F F C+ +0 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 326 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 51% -13  0% 3 - 5 F -25 F -18 F D F D- -8 F B D+
 Sun, Dec 7 292 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 62% +14  95% 4 - 5 B- +7 D- -8 C C- D A+ +15 A+ A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 70 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 5% -7  11% 4 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 A B+ C F+ -10 F C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 114 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 11% -6  5% 4 - 7 C- -2 A +13 A+ D- B- F -15 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 204 @Elon L 91 - 103 23% -5  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 A- +10 A+ D D F -22 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 290 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 39% +4  90% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +7 A +13 B+ B- B+ D -6 C- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 194 @Campbell L 82 - 97 21% -8  3% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 C+ +3 B- D+ B F -16 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 112 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 22% -1  36% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D -8 C- -0 B D+ A D- -8 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 Towson L 78 - 87 35% -6  30% 5 - 11 1 - 4 D- -12 B- +5 B D A- F -17 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 204 Elon W 85 - 78 44% +4  75% 6 - 11 2 - 4 C +1 D+ -2 D+ A+ B- B- +3 D- B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 190 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 21% -1  49% 6 - 12 2 - 5 D- -12 D- -7 C F F D -5 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 216 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 45% -9  0% 6 - 13 2 - 6 F -21 C +1 D A+ A F -22 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 222 @Drexel L 78 - 83 25% -6  7% 6 - 14 2 - 7 D+ -5 B +6 C+ B A F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 152 College of Charleston L 84 - 89 33% +2  66% 6 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -8 A- +10 A+ C- A+ F -18 F+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 108 @Hofstra L 63 - 80 10% -10  0% 6 - 16 2 - 9 D -10 D -6 A- F F+ D -5 D+ D+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 216 @Stony Brook L 55 - 69 25% -10  18% 6 - 17 2 - 10 D- -14 F -17 F B D B- +3 D- A- B
 Thu, Feb 12 135 William & Mary L 67 - 94 28% -11  0% 6 - 18 2 - 11 F -28 F+ -10 F B+ B- F -19 F C F
 Thu, Feb 19 222 Drexel L 61 - 70 46% -3  12% 6 - 19 2 - 12 F+ -15 F -12 F+ D C- D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 108 Hofstra L 72 - 80 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 135 @William & Mary L 80 - 92 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 @Hampton L 71 - 76 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 190 Monmouth L 75 - 77 42%
Totals 7 - 22 3 - 15 -7 C- -2 B- C B- D- -6 C- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C C- C 43% 36% 39% B- C D+ C+ C- C- D+ D D D- D- F D F+ 45% 19% 36% D+ F+ D+ C+ C C+ D+ C- D+
1.06 59% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.03 27% 1.1 .28 17% .28 69% .19 1.17 64% 47% 36% +6 +1 1.15 33% 1.0 .32 18% .34 73% .20
Nov
3		 Boston University F D D F F 54% 15% 31% A- F C F+ D F A+ D A+ B F+ F A+ B 38% 14% 48% D+ B D- B C- B+ D- C+ D
1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29 1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24
Nov
7		 Colgate D B F F F+ 51% 12% 37% A D D+ F F A A C A A- C+ F A+ B 41% 24% 35% D+ B- D+ A+ A- C D+ F D-
1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30 0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23
Nov
11		 Harvard B+ C F A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% C- C+ C B- C+ A A+ F B+ A+ C- A+ B A 36% 19% 45% C+ A C- A B- A+ F D+ F
1.16 57% 10% 45% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 12% .39 61% .24 0.90 60% 13% 32% -6 0 0.90 28% 0.8 .22 27% .49 83% .41
Nov
15		 Vermont D D+ F A+ D- 46% 27% 27% C+ D B- A+ A F B+ B- A- F C+ B F F 55% 6% 39% F F C+ B+ B- B A- F B-
1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29 1.22 57% 33% 60% +15 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18
Nov
20		 Princeton F D F F F 52% 14% 34% B+ F B F D F B- F C- C+ A+ A D+ A- 35% 27% 38% B+ A- F F F A F C- F
0.85 54% 29% 12% -15 +2 0.76 33% 0.8 .26 19% .33 61% .20 1.04 38% 30% 36% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.5 .50 22% .71 76% .54
Nov
22		 Duquesne B- A+ A+ F A+ 53% 16% 31% A A+ C F D- F A+ A A+ B+ C F F D+ 71% 7% 22% F D- A+ C A+ A D+ B C
1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38 1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26
Nov
28		 Wake Forest C- D+ D+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% B+ A+ F+ F F F C- C C- C+ F F C- F 45% 14% 41% D- F F A D+ A+ D+ B- D+
1.00 55% 33% 56% +10 +2 1.26 21% 0.7 .14 30% .29 73% .21 1.17 82% 57% 35% +14 +1 1.33 43% 1.0 .43 23% .36 75% .27
Dec
3		 Holy Cross F D F F F 43% 8% 49% B+ F C- F+ D F F F F D- D- F D+ F 38% 34% 28% B- F C- A+ B D+ B F C+
0.89 55% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.88 27% 1.0 .27 20% .15 38% .06 1.14 63% 65% 36% +12 -2 1.22 22% 0.7 .15 15% .23 85% .19
Dec
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- C C+ C- C- 44% 10% 46% B- C F A+ C- D D+ B+ C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% F A+ B+ A+ A F+ D+ A+ B
1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21 0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17
Dec
20		 Syracuse A D+ A+ C A- 51% 11% 38% A A A+ F B+ C B+ F C+ F+ A F F F 53% 29% 18% B- F F A+ C- C F D- F
1.19 50% 83% 33% 0 +2 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 19% .35 65% .23 1.31 50% 91% 43% +14 0 1.29 53% 0.7 .35 16% .82 71% .58
Dec
22		 Rhode Island A C F A+ A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ C+ F D- B- A+ B+ A+ F C- F C- F 36% 24% 40% A- F F D+ F D B+ B A-
1.19 55% 0% 50% +9 +3 1.27 32% 0.7 .21 20% .48 76% .37 1.31 61% 83% 35% +13 -1 1.26 47% 1.0 .47 17% .30 69% .20
Dec
29		 Elon A- C F+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% B- A+ D- C D D C F+ D+ F F F F F 49% 6% 45% D- F F F F B+ F D- F
1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19 1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33
Dec
31		 N.C. A&T A C A+ A+ A- 48% 24% 28% C B+ C+ B B- B+ A+ F+ A D D- F A+ D+ 33% 28% 40% C+ C- F B D D F B- F
1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29 1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42
Jan
3		 Campbell C+ C+ B A- B- 39% 25% 36% D+ B- F A+ D+ B F A+ D- F F F B- F 55% 14% 31% D F C+ A+ A- F F F+ F
1.14 64% 43% 40% +7 0 1.14 14% 2.3 .32 15% .20 92% .18 1.34 79% 57% 31% +13 +2 1.31 33% 0.8 .26 12% .49 77% .38
Jan
8		 UNC Wilmington C- B- F C- C+ 51% 15% 35% A+ B D B- D+ A A+ F B- D- A A+ F+ B+ 50% 13% 38% F C+ D C D+ B+ F F F
1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21 1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50
Jan
10		 Towson B- B- B C B 39% 17% 44% B- B D- C+ D A- A- A+ A+ F F F F F 52% 30% 18% F+ F F F F A+ F+ D F+
1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30 1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25
Jan
15		 Elon D+ C A- D D+ 39% 19% 42% C+ D+ D+ A+ A+ B- F C+ F B- C A+ F D- 44% 8% 48% C- D- A- C B+ A+ C A+ B-
1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12 1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19
Jan
19		 Monmouth D- A+ A+ F C 47% 15% 38% B- C B- F F F D+ C- D+ D B- F D D 36% 19% 46% D D D+ F+ D- F A+ A+ A+
0.95 72% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19 1.13 52% 45% 37% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11
Jan
22		 Stony Brook C A+ F F D- 39% 18% 44% C+ D D- A+ A+ A C+ F F F D- C F F 33% 10% 57% D+ F F B D+ A- F D F
1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13 1.33 63% 40% 57% +22 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27
Jan
24		 Drexel B F A+ A- B- 38% 24% 38% C C+ D A+ B A C- F D F F F C F 35% 31% 35% A F B- A+ A+ F F C- F
1.12 43% 54% 38% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.4 .38 12% .29 67% .20 1.20 71% 60% 35% +12 -2 1.22 26% 0.4 .12 10% .45 68% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 College of Charleston A- A C A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% B- A+ C+ D C- A+ F F F F D F A+ D 58% 13% 28% F F+ B- F+ C- F D- C- F+
1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03 1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31
Feb
5		 Hofstra D C A+ B A 27% 27% 46% D+ A- F C- F F+ D- F F+ D F F+ B D 32% 26% 42% C+ D+ F+ B- D+ D+ B- D C+
0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17 1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21
Feb
7		 Stony Brook F F F F F 30% 26% 44% D- F D- A+ B D C+ F C- B- F D+ A D- 38% 15% 47% D+ D- A+ F A- B F D+ F
0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20 1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26
Feb
12		 William & Mary F+ B+ D F F 34% 17% 49% C- F D- A+ B+ B- F A F F D- A+ F F 53% 13% 34% D+ F F A+ C F B- A+ A-
0.96 67% 33% 19% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.7 .41 17% .16 78% .12 1.35 68% 14% 61% +16 +2 1.38 33% 0.9 .30 11% .31 63% .19
Feb
19		 Drexel F F A F+ F+ 36% 28% 36% D+ F+ F A+ D C- D- B- D D+ F A+ D- F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ B F B F
0.91 33% 50% 28% -9 -1 0.82 19% 1.4 .27 16% .25 79% .20 1.04 85% 0% 39% +12 +2 1.31 4% 0.0 .00 22% .46 63% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 16.6 18.8 5.6 0.4 41.4 12th
13th 28.2 25.2 4.8 0.2 58.4 13th
Total 28.2 41.8 23.6 5.8 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.8
4-14 23.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.5
3-15 41.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 41.8
2-16 28.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 28.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 15.1%