Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #211
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #240
Pace 71.1 #131
Improvement -0.4 #204

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #190 C C D+ D B+
Defense #253 D D- C B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #15 1.13 #223 +4.0 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #266 0.63 #311 -2.6 #299
Three Pointers 37% #258 1.09 #83 -0.5 #199
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #156 +0.8 #156
Freethrows 17.6 #164 73% #167 12.8 #164
Second Chance 29.0% #228 0.97 #271 0.28 #258
Turnovers 19.0% #298
Total Offense -0.8 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.17 #184 -4.7 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.97 #358 -2.7 #339
Three Pointers 33% #351 1.04 #227 +3.8 #51
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #291 -3.6 #292
Freethrows 20.0 #307 74% #246 14.8 #317
Second Chance 35.7% #326 0.89 #38 0.32 #183
Turnovers 18.5% #83
Total Defense -2.4 #253

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #45 1% #262
Shot Type Make Effect -0.8% #189 6% #285
Possession Length 16.9 #144 16.6 #89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #70 0.20 #258
Improvement +6.0 #2 -6.4 #365
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 17.0% 23.7% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 31.2% 41.0% 18.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 4.9% 18.6%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round2.1% 2.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 47 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 282 Boston University L 75-76 OT 73%     1.8   0 - 1 -10.6 -11.1 +0.6
  Fri, Nov 7 198 @Colgate W 68-65 36%     -1.2   1 - 1 +3.4 -2.3 +5.9
  Tue, Nov 11 180 @Harvard W 77-60 32%     9.1   2 - 1 +18.7 +9.4 +10.1
  Sat, Nov 15 187 Vermont L 74-85 56%     -0.4   2 - 2 -15.8 -3.8 -12.1
  Thu, Nov 20 244 @Princeton L 57-70 43%     -9.6   2 - 3 -14.6 -11.8 -3.3
  Sat, Nov 22 118 Duquesne W 93-86 27%     3.1   3 - 3 +10.1 +4.9 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 28 63 @Wake Forest L 73-86 9%     -6.5   3 - 4 -1.2 +3.1 -3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 324 @Holy Cross L 59-76 64%     -12.6   3 - 5 -23.9 -14.8 -10.0
  Sun, Dec 7 281 Central Connecticut St. W 73-56 73%     13.8   4 - 5 +7.5 -1.6 +9.5
  Sat, Dec 20 74 @Syracuse L 83-91 10%     -7.1   4 - 6 +2.5 +15.9 -13.4
  Mon, Dec 22 120 @Rhode Island L 77-85 19%     -5.6   4 - 7 -2.1 +14.0 -16.7
  Mon, Dec 29 162 @Elon L 91-103 28%     -5.1   4 - 8 0 - 1 -9.2 +12.2 -21.0
  Wed, Dec 31 302 @N.C. A&T W 78-76 56%    
  Sat, Jan 3 238 @Campbell L 78-80 43%    
  Thu, Jan 8 119 UNC Wilmington L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 138 Towson L 68-70 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 162 Elon L 79-80 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 273 @Drexel L 71-72 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 @Monmouth L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 253 Stony Brook W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 167 College of Charleston W 76-75 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 107 @Hofstra L 68-78 17%    
  Sat, Feb 7 253 @Stony Brook L 71-72 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 112 William & Mary L 81-85 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 273 Drexel W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 107 Hofstra L 71-75 35%    
  Thu, Feb 26 112 @William & Mary L 78-88 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 247 @Hampton L 72-74 44%    
  Tue, Mar 3 227 Monmouth W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.2 2.4 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.6 4.0 0.5 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.9 5.4 1.0 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.1 1.8 0.1 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.0 2.6 0.2 11.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 5.1 3.2 0.5 10.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.3 11.3 14.0 15.5 15.2 12.5 8.7 5.4 3.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 48.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 9.3% 9.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.0% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
12-6 3.2% 9.4% 9.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.9
11-7 5.4% 6.3% 6.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.0
10-8 8.7% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.2
9-9 12.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.3 0.1 12.1
8-10 15.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 14.9
7-11 15.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.3
6-12 14.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.9
5-13 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
4-14 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 97.7 0.0%