Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#152
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#149
Pace67.5#224
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#210
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#270
Layup/Dunks+8.1#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#291
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement-2.4#334

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#179
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#100
Freethrows+0.9#128
Improvement+2.0#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 13.1% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 88.9% 92.1% 77.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 83.8% 75.5%
Conference Champion 15.2% 16.5% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round12.0% 13.1% 8.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 67 - 9
Quad 413 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 268   @ Boston University W 80-72 63%     1 - 0 +5.0 +12.8 -7.2
  Nov 10, 2024 108   Princeton L 76-79 49%     1 - 1 -2.1 +0.0 -2.1
  Nov 13, 2024 241   Harvard W 78-56 77%     2 - 1 +14.7 +2.5 +12.0
  Nov 16, 2024 240   Central Connecticut St. W 80-62 68%     3 - 1 +13.7 +8.8 +5.1
  Nov 22, 2024 253   Florida International W 60-58 70%     4 - 1 -3.0 -8.2 +5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 59-55 45%     5 - 1 +5.7 -5.9 +12.0
  Nov 24, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-68 68%     5 - 2 -12.4 -7.7 -5.6
  Nov 30, 2024 183   @ Vermont L 64-68 44%     5 - 3 -2.1 -3.3 +1.0
  Dec 03, 2024 143   La Salle W 82-68 60%     6 - 3 +12.0 +0.3 +10.2
  Dec 08, 2024 246   Colgate W 71-63 78%    
  Dec 15, 2024 317   @ Old Dominion W 75-69 73%    
  Dec 18, 2024 171   @ Massachusetts L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 29, 2024 66   @ Northwestern L 59-70 14%    
  Jan 02, 2025 213   Delaware W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 156   Hofstra W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 09, 2025 147   @ Towson L 61-64 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 327   @ Stony Brook W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 23, 2025 167   Drexel W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 27, 2025 147   Towson W 64-61 60%    
  Jan 30, 2025 264   @ Hampton W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 173   @ Elon L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 06, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 264   Hampton W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 13, 2025 278   Campbell W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 327   Stony Brook W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 20, 2025 127   College of Charleston W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 287   @ Monmouth W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 311   N.C. A&T W 82-70 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 219   @ William & Mary W 77-76 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 4.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.4 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 5.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.6 4.7 4.6 0.9 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.4 1.9 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.4 0.3 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.0 8.0 10.9 13.6 14.8 14.2 11.6 8.5 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.5% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.4% 2.3    2.1 0.3
15-3 83.2% 4.2    3.0 1.1 0.1
14-4 54.9% 4.7    2.2 1.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 21.5% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.7 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 46.0% 46.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 42.4% 42.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.4% 31.3% 31.3% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.7
15-3 5.1% 28.1% 28.1% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.6
14-4 8.5% 22.5% 22.5% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.6
13-5 11.6% 19.9% 19.9% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.3
12-6 14.2% 15.8% 15.8% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 11.9
11-7 14.8% 8.8% 8.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 13.5
10-8 13.6% 6.1% 6.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.8
9-9 10.9% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.4
8-10 8.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.7
7-11 5.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.1 0.0 4.9
6-12 2.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 4.1 2.2 0.4 87.9 0.0%