Elon
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#273
Expected Predictive Rating-10.4#312
Pace72.0#104
Improvement-1.7#305

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#236
First Shot-0.2#183
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#281
Layup/Dunks-5.4#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#68
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement-0.4#223

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#299
First Shot-5.1#323
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#112
Layups/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#225
Freethrows-6.5#354
Improvement-1.4#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 2.0% 2.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 21.8% 25.1% 16.2%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 16.4% 23.8%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 16
Quad 45 - 58 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 14   @ Florida L 61-74 2%     0 - 1 +5.5 +0.7 +4.2
  Nov 18, 2021 45   West Virginia L 68-87 8%     0 - 2 -9.1 -4.1 -4.1
  Nov 19, 2021 69   Mississippi L 56-74 11%     0 - 3 -10.8 -13.1 +3.2
  Nov 21, 2021 150   Temple L 58-75 24%     0 - 4 -15.8 -12.1 -4.3
  Nov 27, 2021 149   Jacksonville St. L 81-93 33%     0 - 5 -13.7 +6.7 -20.4
  Nov 30, 2021 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-74 20%     0 - 6 -10.1 -7.9 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2021 282   High Point W 69-66 62%    
  Dec 11, 2021 43   @ North Carolina L 71-91 4%    
  Dec 15, 2021 146   Winthrop L 77-82 35%    
  Dec 21, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 66-89 2%    
  Dec 29, 2021 148   Northeastern L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 31, 2021 133   Hofstra L 74-79 30%    
  Jan 05, 2022 332   William & Mary W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 09, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston L 79-87 25%    
  Jan 11, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 15, 2022 164   Towson L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 17, 2022 163   James Madison L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 20, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 22, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 29, 2022 332   @ William & Mary W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 03, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 198   College of Charleston L 82-84 44%    
  Feb 10, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 12, 2022 164   @ Towson L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 161   Delaware L 73-77 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 169   Drexel L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 24, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 71-82 16%    
  Feb 26, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 61-72 18%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.2 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 1.8 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.5 3.2 6.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 6.0 7.6 4.6 0.9 21.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.5 7.0 6.9 3.1 0.5 22.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 3.5 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 12.1 10th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.3 8.0 11.1 14.2 14.2 13.1 11.0 9.1 5.5 3.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 92.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 69.2% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-5 36.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 16.2% 16.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.3% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 11.9% 11.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.6
11-7 3.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.6
10-8 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 5.3
9-9 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.9
8-10 11.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.7
7-11 13.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.9
6-12 14.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.1
5-13 14.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-14 11.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.1
3-15 8.0% 8.0
2-16 4.3% 4.3
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%