Elon
Colonial Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#334
Expected Predictive Rating-18.4#359
Pace67.4#197
Improvement+1.7#17

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#326
First Shot-3.3#285
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#327
Layup/Dunks-2.9#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#192
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement+0.2#155

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#313
First Shot-3.3#283
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#314
Layups/Dunks+0.9#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#356
Freethrows+1.0#107
Improvement+1.6#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.6% 20.8% 43.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 223   East Tennessee St. L 64-77 24%     0 - 1 -16.0 -10.9 -4.7
  Nov 13, 2022 157   Harvard L 77-92 16%     0 - 2 -14.5 +3.7 -17.4
  Nov 17, 2022 322   North Dakota L 73-77 56%     0 - 3 -15.9 -2.1 -14.0
  Nov 19, 2022 37   @ North Carolina St. L 63-74 2%     0 - 4 +3.2 -3.9 +7.1
  Nov 22, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville St. L 53-78 22%     0 - 5 -27.3 -17.8 -11.3
  Nov 27, 2022 178   Radford L 53-69 24%     0 - 6 -19.0 -13.4 -7.6
  Nov 30, 2022 304   @ High Point L 70-84 30%     0 - 7 -19.0 -9.6 -8.6
  Dec 03, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro L 61-65 19%     0 - 8 -5.0 -6.1 +1.0
  Dec 15, 2022 330   @ Presbyterian L 63-69 38%     0 - 9 -13.3 -6.5 -7.4
  Dec 18, 2022 267   @ Valparaiso L 66-71 24%     0 - 10 -7.8 -8.7 +1.0
  Dec 20, 2022 21   @ Indiana L 72-96 1%     0 - 11 -7.5 -1.5 -3.3
  Dec 29, 2022 202   @ Drexel L 50-62 14%     0 - 12 0 - 1 -10.9 -11.6 -1.6
  Dec 31, 2022 206   @ Delaware L 52-57 15%     0 - 13 0 - 2 -4.1 -16.5 +12.0
  Jan 04, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington L 66-81 21%     0 - 14 0 - 3 -17.0 -3.0 -14.7
  Jan 11, 2023 277   N.C. A&T L 71-80 44%     0 - 15 0 - 4 -17.7 -8.6 -8.9
  Jan 14, 2023 83   @ College of Charleston L 60-78 4%     0 - 16 0 - 5 -8.7 -7.6 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2023 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 54-62 10%     0 - 17 0 - 6 -4.6 -9.5 +4.0
  Jan 21, 2023 141   Towson L 62-66 19%     0 - 18 0 - 7 -5.1 -4.8 -0.7
  Jan 26, 2023 107   Hofstra L 65-82 14%     0 - 19 0 - 8 -16.0 -5.3 -11.6
  Jan 28, 2023 202   Drexel W 72-58 28%     1 - 19 1 - 8 +9.6 +10.0 +1.9
  Feb 02, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook L 64-69 31%    
  Feb 04, 2023 252   @ Northeastern L 64-72 21%    
  Feb 08, 2023 277   @ N.C. A&T L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 11, 2023 305   William & Mary W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 13, 2023 342   Hampton W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 83   College of Charleston L 67-81 10%    
  Feb 18, 2023 351   @ Monmouth L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 23, 2023 305   @ William & Mary L 67-72 30%    
  Feb 25, 2023 206   Delaware L 66-72 30%    
Projected Record 4 - 25 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.4 1.7 0.3 2.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 1.7 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.2 4.0 5.8 0.6 10.5 10th
11th 2.4 13.9 14.6 2.6 0.0 33.6 11th
12th 2.3 12.3 11.7 1.9 0.0 28.2 12th
13th 2.5 8.6 7.0 1.2 0.0 19.3 13th
Total 2.5 10.8 21.7 26.9 20.8 11.5 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 11.5% 11.5
5-13 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
4-14 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.9
3-15 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.7
2-16 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
1-17 2.5% 2.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.5%