Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #194
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #189
Pace 68.0 #204
Improvement -1.7 #260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 B C C C A-
Defense #296 D+ D C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #15 1.19 #135 +5.2 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #352 0.66 #320 -4.7 #359
Three Pointers 44% #114 1.10 #66 +3.7 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #65 +4.1 #65
Freethrows 0.30 #177 71% #236 0.21 #189
Second Chance 32.7% #124 0.98 #238 0.32 #157
Turnovers 16.6% #170
Total Offense +2.0 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.09 #90 +3.9 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.76 #179 +1.1 #102
Three Pointers 48% #24 1.17 #353 -7.3 #358
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.3 #261
Freethrows 0.28 #114 72% #135 0.20 #112
Second Chance 34.5% #321 1.09 #274 0.37 #317
Turnovers 15.9% #224
Total Defense -4.2 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #10 -0.1% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #108 5.1% #281
Possession Length 17.2 #161 17.5 #235
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.17 #184
Improvement -4.3 #349 +2.6 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.2% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 55.2% 71.4% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 67.9% 33.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.2% 5.1% 3.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 313 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 65% +1  1 - 0 -4 +8 D+ D A+ -12 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 153 @Marshall L 89 - 96 31% -6  1 - 1 -4 +10 B B- A- -13 F+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  2 - 1 -10 +5 A B F -16 F D D-
 Thu, Nov 20 40 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 6% -10  2 - 2 -11 +3 A+ D+ F -13 C- F D+
 Mon, Nov 24 172 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 34% +17  3 - 2 +37 +31 B- A+ A +11 A- B D+
 Sat, Nov 29 148 Mercer L 84 - 91 50% -1  3 - 3 -9 +0 D+ D+ F -9 D+ B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 3 157 Furman L 88 - 97 54% +1  3 - 4 -12 +12 C+ C+ A+ -24 F+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 188 @Wofford W 73 - 52 38% +21  4 - 4 +22 +10 A- F+ D+ +15 A+ A- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 308 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 82% -4  5 - 4 -6 +7 C+ F A -13 C- D F+
 Wed, Dec 17 134 Richmond W 73 - 70 47% -2  6 - 4 +2 +3 A F D- -1 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 60 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 10% +6  6 - 5 +11 +15 A A+ D- -4 B F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 256 Northeastern W 103 - 91 73% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +20 A+ A+ D -17 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 152 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 52% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +3 C C- A+ -9 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 281 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 56% +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 +1 -4 D- C+ C- +5 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 212 Campbell W 83 - 82 65% -6  9 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +8 B- A+ B -13 F B F
 Thu, Jan 15 256 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 51% -4  9 - 7 3 - 2 -9 -5 C+ D F -4 C+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 126 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 24% +3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +9 +22 A+ D+ A- -13 F A C
 Thu, Jan 22 154 Towson L 59 - 72 53% -5  10 - 8 4 - 3 -16 -2 C- C F -16 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 152 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 30% -10  10 - 9 4 - 4 -7 -3 D C D- -3 D D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 149 William & Mary W 79 - 76 51% -4  11 - 9 5 - 4 +1 +8 B- B- A+ -8 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 219 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 66% -6  11 - 10 5 - 5 -10 -7 C+ F D -3 C F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 251 @Hampton W 73 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 205 Drexel W 71 - 67 63%
 Thu, Feb 12 117 @UNC Wilmington L 71 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 149 @William & Mary L 81 - 87 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 281 N.C. A&T W 83 - 75 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 154 @Towson L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 206 @Monmouth L 72 - 74 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 117 UNC Wilmington L 74 - 76 42%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2 +2 B C C -4 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.6 6.0 2.2 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 4.4 6.0 0.4 10.8 5th
6th 0.9 10.1 2.1 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.1 5.5 8.2 0.3 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 11.1 2.1 14.4 8th
9th 0.2 5.6 6.8 0.1 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.9 6.8 1.2 9.9 10th
11th 0.4 3.9 2.4 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.8 6.7 16.1 25.5 25.5 16.3 7.0 1.9 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 53.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.9% 14.4% 14.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-7 7.0% 12.8% 12.8% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.1
10-8 16.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 15.2
9-9 25.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 24.5
8-10 25.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 24.8
7-11 16.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 15.9
6-12 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.6
5-13 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.4 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%