Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#209
Pace69.9#176
Improvement+1.8#59

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#118
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#63
Layup/Dunks+1.8#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#101
Freethrows-0.8#220
Improvement-0.8#257

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#334
First Shot-5.0#333
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#181
Layups/Dunks-1.2#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#332
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement+2.5#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 38.3% 49.2% 25.7%
.500 or above in Conference 43.9% 49.6% 37.4%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 5.9% 9.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.2% 4.0% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 294 @UNC Greensboro W 92-90 OT 56%     1 - 0 -2.3 +10.9 -13.3
  Wed, Nov 12 184 @Marshall L 89-96 34%     1 - 1 -5.7 +9.8 -14.8
  Sat, Nov 15 355 Gardner-Webb W 95-84 89%     2 - 1 -5.4 +8.0 -14.3
  Thu, Nov 20 33 @Miami (FL) L 72-99 5%     2 - 2 -11.0 +4.8 -14.6
  Mon, Nov 24 279 @Appalachian St. W 88-53 53%     3 - 2 +31.4 +27.2 +9.4
  Sat, Nov 29 190 Mercer L 84-91 58%     3 - 3 -12.0 -0.3 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 3 165 Furman W 75-74 53%    
  Sat, Dec 6 213 @Wofford L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Dec 13 329 Northern Illinois W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Dec 17 116 Richmond L 76-79 38%    
  Sat, Dec 20 70 @Virginia Tech L 72-86 10%    
  Mon, Dec 29 195 Northeastern W 78-76 59%    
  Wed, Dec 31 177 College of Charleston W 78-77 55%    
  Thu, Jan 8 321 @N.C. A&T W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 226 Campbell W 82-78 65%    
  Thu, Jan 15 195 @Northeastern L 75-79 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 134 @Hofstra L 70-78 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 132 Towson L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 177 @College of Charleston L 75-80 34%    
  Thu, Jan 29 120 William & Mary L 83-86 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 222 Stony Brook W 77-73 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 230 @Hampton L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Feb 7 260 Drexel W 76-70 69%    
  Thu, Feb 12 100 @UNC Wilmington L 69-80 17%    
  Sat, Feb 14 120 @William & Mary L 80-89 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 321 N.C. A&T W 82-73 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 132 @Towson L 67-75 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 203 @Monmouth L 76-79 39%    
  Tue, Mar 3 100 UNC Wilmington L 72-77 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.5 1.8 0.2 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 5.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.3 2.6 5.2 1.8 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.2 11.3 13.0 13.8 13.0 10.9 8.3 5.5 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 77.5% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.3% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 22.7% 22.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 20.3% 20.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.7% 15.2% 15.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.4% 14.4% 14.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.9
12-6 5.5% 10.0% 10.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0
11-7 8.3% 6.9% 6.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.7
10-8 10.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.4
9-9 13.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.7
8-10 13.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.6
7-11 13.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.9
6-12 11.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.1
4-14 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.3
3-15 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 96.7 0.0%