Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#180
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#156
Pace68.8#202
Improvement+2.6#43

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#102
First Shot+2.6#104
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#147
Layup/Dunks+3.0#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#105
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement-0.7#242

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#321
First Shot-4.9#331
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#159
Layups/Dunks+0.7#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#362
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement+3.4#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 6.5% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.3 14.0
.500 or above 62.8% 83.1% 60.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 70.9% 58.2%
Conference Champion 4.9% 8.2% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.7% 4.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.0% 6.5% 4.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 291 @UNC Greensboro W 92-90 OT 61%     1 - 0 -2.1 +10.6 -12.8
  Wed, Nov 12 158 @Marshall L 89-96 33%     1 - 1 -3.9 +9.8 -13.1
  Sat, Nov 15 362 Gardner-Webb W 95-84 94%     2 - 1 -7.6 +6.3 -14.7
  Thu, Nov 20 33 @Miami (FL) L 72-99 6%     2 - 2 -10.8 +4.3 -13.9
  Mon, Nov 24 225 @Appalachian St. W 88-53 48%     3 - 2 +34.2 +29.1 +10.2
  Sat, Nov 29 170 Mercer L 84-91 60%     3 - 3 -10.9 +1.2 -11.4
  Wed, Dec 3 152 Furman L 88-97 54%     3 - 4 -11.5 +10.8 -22.0
  Sat, Dec 6 221 @Wofford W 73-52 47%     4 - 4 +20.4 +10.3 +13.2
  Sat, Dec 13 323 Northern Illinois W 85-79 86%     5 - 4 -6.8 +4.1 -10.9
  Wed, Dec 17 104 Richmond W 73-70 40%     6 - 4 +4.2 +5.1 -0.8
  Sat, Dec 20 64 @Virginia Tech L 73-86 11%    
  Mon, Dec 29 212 Northeastern W 79-74 68%    
  Wed, Dec 31 185 College of Charleston W 78-75 62%    
  Thu, Jan 8 304 @N.C. A&T W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 229 Campbell W 83-77 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 212 @Northeastern L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 115 @Hofstra L 71-79 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 137 Towson W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 185 @College of Charleston L 75-78 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 120 William & Mary L 83-84 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 239 Stony Brook W 77-71 71%    
  Thu, Feb 5 227 @Hampton L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 287 Drexel W 77-69 77%    
  Thu, Feb 12 108 @UNC Wilmington L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 120 @William & Mary L 80-87 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 304 N.C. A&T W 82-73 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 137 @Towson L 69-75 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 237 @Monmouth L 76-77 50%    
  Tue, Mar 3 108 UNC Wilmington L 74-76 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.1 2.5 0.2 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.9 3.4 0.3 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.6 1.0 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.2 1.6 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.3 1.9 0.2 6.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.6 7.8 10.8 13.3 14.3 14.1 11.8 8.9 5.4 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 94.1% 0.4    0.4 0.1
15-3 84.1% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 53.5% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.6% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 17.6% 17.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 32.6% 32.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.4% 22.8% 22.8% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
14-4 3.1% 16.8% 16.8% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.6
13-5 5.4% 15.1% 15.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 4.6
12-6 8.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 7.9
11-7 11.8% 7.1% 7.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.9
10-8 14.1% 4.6% 4.6% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.5
9-9 14.3% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.0
8-10 13.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.1
7-11 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.6
6-12 7.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.7
5-13 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.5% 2.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 94.9 0.0%