William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#332
Expected Predictive Rating-19.4#353
Pace71.8#109
Improvement+0.8#114

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#344
First Shot-7.9#347
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#122
Layup/Dunks+0.5#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#314
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement+0.7#101

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#307
First Shot-2.4#258
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#298
Layups/Dunks-4.1#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+0.1#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 7.1% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 66.2% 50.5% 66.8%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 111 - 16
Quad 44 - 105 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 81   @ Wake Forest L 59-77 4%     0 - 1 -8.2 -11.1 +3.6
  Nov 12, 2021 320   American L 62-74 52%     0 - 2 -23.9 -22.2 -0.9
  Nov 16, 2021 250   @ Norfolk St. L 74-91 18%     0 - 3 -18.8 -2.4 -15.4
  Nov 20, 2021 141   Georgia St. L 59-77 11%     0 - 4 -16.1 -19.4 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2021 310   Howard L 76-82 38%     0 - 5 -14.2 -8.2 -5.7
  Nov 24, 2021 248   @ Radford L 54-67 18%     0 - 6 -14.6 -13.1 -2.6
  Dec 01, 2021 101   @ Navy L 57-76 4%    
  Dec 04, 2021 73   @ Davidson L 58-79 2%    
  Dec 07, 2021 228   Old Dominion L 62-67 32%    
  Dec 09, 2021 338   Hampton W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 12, 2021 237   Fairfield L 65-70 33%    
  Dec 22, 2021 204   @ Valparaiso L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 29, 2021 133   Hofstra L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 31, 2021 148   Northeastern L 59-69 18%    
  Jan 05, 2022 273   @ Elon L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 09, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 11, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston L 74-87 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 163   James Madison L 68-77 23%    
  Jan 17, 2022 164   Towson L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 20, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 65-80 9%    
  Jan 22, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 62-76 10%    
  Jan 29, 2022 273   Elon L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 03, 2022 198   College of Charleston L 77-84 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 10, 2022 164   @ Towson L 61-76 10%    
  Feb 12, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 65-80 11%    
  Feb 17, 2022 169   Drexel L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 161   Delaware L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 24, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 56-72 8%    
  Feb 26, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 65-82 7%    
Projected Record 5 - 25 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.9 1.7 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 5.4 8.3 6.3 1.9 0.1 24.1 9th
10th 5.0 13.2 16.3 12.6 5.8 1.6 0.1 54.6 10th
Total 5.0 13.3 18.2 18.2 15.9 11.8 7.8 4.9 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 13.9% 0.0    0.0
10-8 3.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.7% 0.7
9-9 1.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-11 4.9% 4.9
6-12 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-14 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.9
3-15 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.2
2-16 18.2% 18.2
1-17 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.3
0-18 5.0% 5.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%