William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#311
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#318
Pace66.9#242
Improvement-4.9#360

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#213
First Shot-1.1#200
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#192
Layup/Dunks-2.5#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#67
Freethrows+0.3#165
Improvement-1.0#289

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#350
First Shot-8.4#357
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#78
Layups/Dunks+3.3#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#345
Freethrows-3.8#335
Improvement-3.9#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.4 16.0
.500 or above 4.3% 14.2% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 35.1% 20.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 4.3% 11.5%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 269   American W 75-56 52%     1 - 0 +10.3 -0.1 +11.1
  Nov 11, 2023 149   @ George Washington L 89-95 13%     1 - 1 -2.1 +6.2 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2023 284   Nebraska Omaha L 83-89 43%     1 - 2 -12.4 +2.4 -14.6
  Nov 17, 2023 196   @ Air Force L 71-80 OT 19%     1 - 3 -7.8 +4.5 -12.6
  Nov 19, 2023 346   Lindenwood L 60-71 66%     1 - 4 -23.4 -18.1 -5.5
  Nov 25, 2023 285   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 96-81 55%     2 - 4 +5.6 +15.2 -10.0
  Nov 28, 2023 239   @ Norfolk St. L 62-96 25%     2 - 5 -35.1 -8.9 -28.0
  Dec 02, 2023 87   @ Richmond L 62-79 5%    
  Dec 06, 2023 186   Old Dominion L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 21, 2023 180   @ Pepperdine L 72-82 16%    
  Dec 30, 2023 317   @ Navy L 65-68 42%    
  Jan 04, 2024 292   Elon W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 06, 2024 147   Drexel L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 11, 2024 324   @ Hampton L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 13, 2024 258   Stony Brook W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 18, 2024 310   Campbell W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 20, 2024 360   @ N.C. A&T W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 25, 2024 106   @ Hofstra L 66-81 8%    
  Jan 27, 2024 223   @ Northeastern L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 01, 2024 172   Delaware L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 123   College of Charleston L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 08, 2024 245   @ Monmouth L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 10, 2024 172   @ Delaware L 67-78 18%    
  Feb 15, 2024 199   Towson L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 19, 2024 123   @ College of Charleston L 69-83 10%    
  Feb 22, 2024 136   UNC Wilmington L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 24, 2024 258   @ Stony Brook L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 29, 2024 292   @ Elon L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 02, 2024 324   Hampton W 80-76 65%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.3 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.0 2.1 0.2 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.9 0.5 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.9 5.3 0.9 0.0 12.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 4.3 5.9 1.6 0.0 12.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.2 3.0 0.3 15.5 12th
13th 0.2 1.4 4.8 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.6 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.8 14th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.7 7.7 10.8 13.7 15.2 14.1 11.6 9.5 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 59.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.3
10-8 5.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.7
9-9 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
8-10 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
7-11 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-12 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
5-13 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-15 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-16 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%