William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #134
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 #111
Pace 81.1 #5
Improvement -1.6 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #146 B- C- C- C B
Defense #135 C C B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.25 #80 +3.5 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #336 0.71 #261 -3.5 #336
Three Pointers 47% #71 1.00 #204 +2.6 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.6 #105
Freethrows 0.30 #195 75% #76 0.23 #156
Second Chance 26.6% #291 1.14 #71 0.30 #212
Turnovers 17.2% #237
Total Offense +0.6 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.22 #272 -1.0 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #353 0.77 #203 +2.5 #16
Three Pointers 48% #22 0.91 #56 -1.2 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.4 #167
Freethrows 0.28 #123 71% #88 0.20 #112
Second Chance 31.3% #218 1.00 #115 0.31 #171
Turnovers 19.0% #50
Total Defense +0.9 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #33 1.7% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #134 -2.4% #137
Possession Length 13.7 #2 18.5 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #40 0.16 #136
Improvement +0.4 #157 -2.0 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 17.9% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 96.9% 85.0%
Conference Champion 6.6% 8.0% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.7% 17.9% 12.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 296 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 72% -4  1 - 0 -2 +0 C- A+ F -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 117 @Richmond L 86 - 90 34% -1  1 - 1 +2 +7 C- C A+ -5 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 19 @St. John's L 60 - 93 5% -13  1 - 2 -13 -11 D- A F +2 B- B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 146 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 41% +9  2 - 2 +12 +3 B C F +8 A+ D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 266 UTEP W 74 - 63 76% +8  3 - 2 +5 -4 C+ D- F +9 A+ D- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 259 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 75% +12  4 - 2 +28 +13 A+ C B- +13 B- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 223 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 78% +7  5 - 2 +6 +3 B F+ C- +2 C+ B A
 Tue, Dec 2 121 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 35% +8  6 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F F +4 A F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 65 @George Washington L 86 - 99 17% -4  6 - 3 -1 +8 B B- C+ -8 D D+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 243 Radford W 96 - 83 80% +3  7 - 3 +5 +5 D B- A- -1 B- D B-
 Mon, Dec 29 170 Towson W 84 - 70 70% +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +10 +12 A+ F B+ -1 D- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 222 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 78% +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +12 +6 A+ D- D- +8 A- A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 155 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 43% -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -3 F C A+ -1 F+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 199 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 53% -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -10 -2 D+ B+ F -8 D- F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 200 @Drexel L 58 - 64 54% -5  9 - 6 2 - 3 -5 -9 D- F F+ +3 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 289 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 86% +7  10 - 6 3 - 3 -2 +10 A+ C C- -13 F C+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 115 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 56% +11  11 - 6 4 - 3 +7 +1 C C- C +6 A B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 135 Hofstra W 89 - 82 62% +5  12 - 6 5 - 3 +5 +18 A- B A+ -12 C D+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 181 @Elon L 76 - 79 51% +4  12 - 7 5 - 4 -2 +4 C+ D F+ -6 C+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 221 Campbell W 89 - 81 78%
 Thu, Feb 5 115 @UNC Wilmington L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 237 @Hampton W 77 - 74 61%
 Thu, Feb 12 253 @Northeastern W 88 - 84 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 181 Elon W 86 - 80 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 221 @Campbell W 86 - 84 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 253 Northeastern W 91 - 81 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 289 @N.C. A&T W 86 - 80 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 237 Hampton W 80 - 71 79%
Totals 18 - 10 11 - 7 +2 +1 B- C- C- +1 C C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.3 6.6 1st
2nd 0.3 4.7 11.7 7.9 0.9 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 13.8 8.9 1.3 0.0 27.7 3rd
4th 0.7 8.5 6.1 0.7 16.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.3 6.0 0.7 10.0 5th
6th 0.3 4.3 1.3 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 0.4 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.3 11.1 19.8 25.4 22.3 12.4 3.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 71.5% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.1
13-5 26.4% 3.3    0.7 1.8 0.8 0.1
12-6 4.4% 1.0    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 1.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.1% 28.6% 28.6% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 2.2
13-5 12.4% 25.2% 25.2% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.4 9.3
12-6 22.3% 21.8% 21.8% 13.1 0.8 2.8 1.2 0.0 17.5
11-7 25.4% 17.1% 17.1% 13.3 0.4 2.3 1.6 0.1 21.1
10-8 19.8% 11.7% 11.7% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 17.5
9-9 11.1% 7.6% 7.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 10.3
8-10 4.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-11 1.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.2 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.1 7.8 70.0 22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%