William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#121
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#71
Pace83.3#6
Improvement+0.8#125

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#131
First Shot+2.5#109
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#261
Layup/Dunks+0.8#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#90
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement-0.6#226

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#116
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#267
Layups/Dunks-2.4#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#9
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#81
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement+1.3#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 20.0% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 96.5% 97.6% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 92.5% 87.3%
Conference Champion 28.7% 30.1% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.2% 20.0% 15.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 49 - 8
Quad 412 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 232 @Norfolk St. W 81-78 65%     1 - 0 +2.0 +3.8 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 11 102 @Richmond L 86-90 33%     1 - 1 +3.6 +8.8 -4.8
  Sat, Nov 15 16 @St. John's L 60-93 6%     1 - 2 -12.7 -10.6 +2.0
  Wed, Nov 19 124 @Bowling Green W 82-74 41%     2 - 2 +13.4 +4.8 +7.8
  Mon, Nov 24 217 UTEP W 74-63 73%     3 - 2 +7.6 -2.0 +9.0
  Tue, Nov 25 219 Abilene Christian W 92-58 73%     4 - 2 +30.5 +14.0 +14.4
  Sun, Nov 30 215 Old Dominion W 88-75 81%     5 - 2 +6.6 +1.4 +3.8
  Tue, Dec 2 138 @Duquesne W 83-79 44%     6 - 2 +8.5 +4.2 +3.9
  Sat, Dec 6 81 @George Washington L 86-99 24%     6 - 3 -2.7 +6.8 -8.2
  Thu, Dec 18 254 Radford W 92-81 85%    
  Mon, Dec 29 139 Towson W 76-72 67%    
  Wed, Dec 31 196 Stony Brook W 81-73 78%    
  Mon, Jan 5 170 @College of Charleston W 80-79 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 220 @Monmouth W 82-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 270 @Drexel W 78-72 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 310 N.C. A&T W 89-74 91%    
  Thu, Jan 22 109 UNC Wilmington W 78-76 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 113 Hofstra W 79-76 60%    
  Thu, Jan 29 191 @Elon W 86-84 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 229 Campbell W 88-78 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 109 @UNC Wilmington L 75-79 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 230 @Hampton W 78-74 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 208 @Northeastern W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 191 Elon W 89-81 76%    
  Thu, Feb 19 229 @Campbell W 85-81 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 208 Northeastern W 84-75 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 310 @N.C. A&T W 86-77 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 230 Hampton W 81-71 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.1 8.4 5.4 2.6 0.6 28.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.5 7.8 5.1 1.8 0.2 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.6 6.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 15.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 6.9 9.9 12.4 14.8 15.7 13.2 10.2 5.6 2.6 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.1
16-2 96.7% 5.4    4.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 81.9% 8.4    5.8 2.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.1% 7.1    3.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.3% 3.8    1.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.7% 28.7 18.2 7.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 48.5% 47.4% 1.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2%
17-1 2.6% 40.6% 40.6% 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6
16-2 5.6% 38.2% 38.2% 12.0 0.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.4
15-3 10.2% 32.4% 32.4% 12.4 0.2 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.9
14-4 13.2% 25.9% 25.9% 12.6 0.1 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.8
13-5 15.7% 21.8% 21.8% 12.8 1.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.3
12-6 14.8% 17.0% 17.0% 13.1 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 12.3
11-7 12.4% 12.0% 12.0% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 10.9
10-8 9.9% 9.7% 9.7% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.9
9-9 6.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.5
8-10 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
7-11 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.2 7.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 80.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.5 3.9 6.5 11.7 9.1 54.5 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 5.1% 11.5 2.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%