William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#305
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#262
Pace65.7#261
Improvement-1.0#293

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#251
First Shot-2.1#255
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#205
Layup/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-1.1#263
Improvement-0.1#210

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#322
First Shot-5.0#325
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks-2.6#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#293
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#285
Freethrows+1.4#77
Improvement-0.9#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.4% 42.4% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 83 - 12
Quad 48 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 212   Navy L 59-74 39%     0 - 1 -19.8 -8.5 -13.4
  Nov 13, 2022 49   @ Virginia Tech L 77-94 4%     0 - 2 -4.3 +16.6 -22.4
  Nov 16, 2022 236   @ American L 64-71 26%     0 - 3 -8.1 -2.4 -6.5
  Nov 19, 2022 237   Army W 76-67 45%     1 - 3 +2.4 -0.2 +2.7
  Nov 23, 2022 178   Radford W 62-51 32%     2 - 3 +8.0 -5.4 +14.4
  Nov 25, 2022 64   @ Pittsburgh L 64-80 5%     2 - 4 -4.9 +0.4 -6.3
  Nov 29, 2022 37   @ North Carolina St. L 64-85 3%     2 - 5 -6.8 -4.9 -1.2
  Dec 03, 2022 125   Richmond W 58-57 24%     3 - 5 +0.7 -4.6 +5.5
  Dec 07, 2022 176   @ Old Dominion L 62-72 17%     3 - 6 -7.5 -1.2 -7.5
  Dec 10, 2022 203   Norfolk St. L 53-67 37%     3 - 7 -18.4 -19.1 -0.8
  Dec 18, 2022 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 62-78 22%     3 - 8 -15.6 -9.0 -8.0
  Dec 31, 2022 202   @ Drexel L 56-66 20%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -8.9 -8.3 -1.8
  Jan 05, 2023 252   Northeastern W 69-66 49%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -4.5 -1.8 -2.5
  Jan 07, 2023 107   Hofstra L 62-75 20%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -12.0 -10.3 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2023 342   Hampton W 81-65 74%     5 - 10 2 - 2 +1.5 +8.4 -5.1
  Jan 14, 2023 152   @ UNC Wilmington W 69-67 15%     6 - 10 3 - 2 +5.4 +2.8 +2.8
  Jan 16, 2023 83   @ College of Charleston L 54-82 6%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -18.7 -15.9 -2.2
  Jan 19, 2023 206   @ Delaware L 53-80 20%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -26.1 -15.3 -13.0
  Jan 21, 2023 277   N.C. A&T L 86-90 53%     6 - 13 3 - 5 -12.7 -5.9 -6.1
  Jan 26, 2023 313   Stony Brook W 77-74 62%     7 - 13 4 - 5 -7.9 +12.3 -19.7
  Jan 28, 2023 141   @ Towson L 73-92 13%     7 - 14 4 - 6 -14.6 +6.2 -22.0
  Feb 02, 2023 342   @ Hampton W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 11, 2023 334   @ Elon L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 13, 2023 141   Towson L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 16, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook L 66-68 40%    
  Feb 18, 2023 252   @ Northeastern L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 23, 2023 334   Elon W 72-67 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 351   Monmouth W 71-63 76%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.1 0.9 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 7.7 3.1 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 11.0 7.6 0.5 0.0 21.0 7th
8th 0.6 8.7 10.5 1.3 0.0 21.1 8th
9th 0.0 4.2 10.2 2.4 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 8.4 3.6 0.1 14.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.7 4.7 14.2 24.4 26.5 18.5 8.4 2.3 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
10-8 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.3
9-9 18.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.5
8-10 26.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.5
7-11 24.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.4
6-12 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-13 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3%
Lose Out 0.7%