Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #238
Expected Predictive Rating -6.9 #272
Pace 61.1 #354
Improvement +5.6 #8

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 C D D- D C+
Defense #177 C C- D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #178 1.05 #304 -2.2 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #222 0.63 #318 -2.0 #279
Three Pointers 44% #130 1.12 #49 +3.6 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #192 -0.6 #192
Freethrows 15.8 #267 67% #325 10.6 #301
Second Chance 31.1% #168 0.85 #351 0.27 #286
Turnovers 18.9% #312
Total Offense -4.0 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.15 #158 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #85 0.79 #238 -1.7 #294
Three Pointers 36% #304 0.98 #144 +3.0 #71
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #160 +0.7 #160
Freethrows 18.2 #228 72% #175 13.2 #139
Second Chance 31.6% #221 1.07 #224 0.34 #231
Turnovers 14.9% #279
Total Defense -0.4 #177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #150 -0.6% #118
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #200 -0.8% #166
Possession Length 19.2 #340 17.3 #188
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #245 0.19 #245
Improvement +0.1 #173 +5.5 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 14.0% 25.9% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.9% 51.5% 23.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.5% 5.6%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round1.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 93 - 12
Quad 411 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 175 @Saint Joseph's L 65 - 76 27% -1  0 - 1 -9 -6 F B D- -3 C+ A D
 Tue, Nov 11 215 @Colgate L 83 - 90 33% -7  0 - 2 -7 +10 A+ C D -17 F D A-
 Sat, Nov 15 61 Syracuse L 50 - 80 11% -10  0 - 3 -21 -14 C- F F -9 C- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 352 NJIT W 75 - 43 86% +13  1 - 3 +16 -4 D+ D C +19 A+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 206 Penn L 68 - 84 55% -9  1 - 4 -22 -7 F C- B -16 D F C-
 Sun, Nov 23 244 Old Dominion W 75 - 71 63% +1  2 - 4 -4 +4 B- C+ D -7 D+ C- D
 Tue, Nov 25 363 @Morgan St. W 71 - 66 80% +7  3 - 4 -8 -4 D F F -4 D A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 239 @American L 73 - 75 39% +1  3 - 5 -3 +4 A- F B -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 208 La Salle L 64 - 69 44% -8  3 - 6 -8 -6 F A- C -2 D C F
 Tue, Dec 16 275 Howard L 66 - 74 69% -7  3 - 7 -18 -5 C F D- -13 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 297 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 67 73% +11  4 - 7 -3 -2 A+ D+ F -1 F D A+
 Sun, Dec 21 341 Maine W 74 - 56 82% +9  5 - 7 +4 +15 A+ D- F -8 C+ F C
 Mon, Dec 29 155 @College of Charleston L 63 - 72 23% +1  5 - 8 0 - 1 -6 -1 C D F -6 F F B
 Wed, Dec 31 118 @UNC Wilmington L 53 - 65 17% -8  5 - 9 0 - 2 -6 -8 F B- F +0 A- C F
 Sat, Jan 3 110 Hofstra L 67 - 70 30% -8  5 - 10 0 - 3 -2 +7 C+ D A+ -9 C F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 274 Stony Brook W 56 - 37 69% +7  6 - 10 1 - 3 +10 -7 F A F +21 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 138 William & Mary W 64 - 58 40% +5  7 - 10 2 - 3 +4 -5 A+ F F +9 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 185 @Monmouth L 62 - 68 29%
 Sat, Jan 17 236 Northeastern W 73 - 70 60%
 Mon, Jan 19 166 @Towson L 59 - 66 26%
 Thu, Jan 29 242 Hampton W 66 - 63 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 302 N.C. A&T W 72 - 65 74%
 Thu, Feb 5 191 @Campbell L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 169 @Elon L 67 - 74 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 185 Monmouth W 65 - 64 51%
 Mon, Feb 16 274 @Stony Brook L 63 - 64 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 236 @Northeastern L 70 - 73 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 166 Towson L 62 - 63 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 191 Campbell W 72 - 71 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 110 @Hofstra L 60 - 71 15%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 10 -4 -4 C D D- +0 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.9 2.2 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.0 4.9 0.4 12.1 7th
8th 0.3 4.5 7.2 1.3 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.6 7.8 3.1 0.2 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 7.3 4.9 0.3 14.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.8 0.7 0.0 11.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 13th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.2 9.6 15.5 18.9 18.5 15.1 9.4 4.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 45.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 9.6% 9.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.9% 9.1% 9.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-7 4.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.6
10-8 9.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.2
9-9 15.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 14.9
8-10 18.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 18.3
7-11 18.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.7
6-12 15.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.5
5-13 9.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-14 4.2% 4.2
3-15 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.3 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%