Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#202
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#235
Pace61.7#330
Improvement-1.6#338

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#243
First Shot-1.8#246
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#215
Layup/Dunks+0.4#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows-2.2#327
Improvement-1.0#319

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot-0.9#204
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#67
Layups/Dunks-3.4#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#86
Freethrows+1.4#75
Improvement-0.6#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 68.6% 87.5% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 97.1% 84.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round2.8% 4.0% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 413 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 176   Old Dominion W 71-59 55%     1 - 0 +9.1 +2.2 +7.7
  Nov 15, 2022 148   Penn L 59-64 50%     1 - 1 -6.7 -15.6 +8.8
  Nov 21, 2022 274   Texas Arlington W 59-38 66%     2 - 1 +15.2 -6.5 +25.0
  Nov 22, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast L 59-67 44%     2 - 2 -8.0 -9.7 +1.1
  Nov 23, 2022 117   Indiana St. L 81-85 34%     2 - 3 -1.3 +14.6 -16.1
  Nov 27, 2022 98   @ Temple L 61-73 19%     2 - 4 -4.4 +2.0 -8.2
  Nov 30, 2022 261   Lafayette W 64-56 73%     3 - 4 -0.1 +3.3 -1.8
  Dec 03, 2022 115   Princeton L 63-83 43%     3 - 5 -19.8 -6.3 -14.9
  Dec 10, 2022 230   @ La Salle W 65-58 OT 47%     4 - 5 +6.2 -7.5 +13.6
  Dec 14, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 49-66 9%     4 - 6 -3.5 -12.6 +8.5
  Dec 17, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 85-52 92%     5 - 6 +15.7 +7.1 +10.0
  Dec 29, 2022 334   Elon W 62-50 86%     6 - 6 1 - 0 -1.1 -5.3 +6.5
  Dec 31, 2022 305   William & Mary W 66-56 80%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -0.6 -5.7 +6.4
  Jan 05, 2023 141   @ Towson L 58-64 28%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -1.6 -4.1 +1.6
  Jan 07, 2023 351   Monmouth W 67-35 90%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +16.6 -1.0 +21.9
  Jan 12, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook L 66-67 64%     8 - 8 3 - 2 -6.4 +3.2 -9.9
  Jan 14, 2023 252   @ Northeastern W 76-55 52%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +19.0 +8.5 +11.8
  Jan 19, 2023 342   Hampton W 79-73 88%     10 - 8 5 - 2 -8.5 +4.6 -12.5
  Jan 21, 2023 206   Delaware W 77-74 OT 61%     11 - 8 6 - 2 -1.5 -5.4 +3.6
  Jan 26, 2023 277   @ N.C. A&T L 55-68 56%     11 - 9 6 - 3 -16.2 -21.5 +5.7
  Jan 28, 2023 334   @ Elon L 58-72 72%     11 - 10 6 - 4 -21.6 -8.8 -15.1
  Feb 02, 2023 83   College of Charleston L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 04, 2023 351   @ Monmouth W 66-58 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 206   @ Delaware L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 141   Towson L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 13, 2023 107   @ Hofstra L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 16, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington W 62-61 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 342   @ Hampton W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 23, 2023 252   Northeastern W 67-61 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.8 2.5 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 11.1 6.8 0.4 21.0 4th
5th 0.2 5.5 18.5 11.2 1.1 0.0 36.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 10.1 6.0 0.3 18.5 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 3.6 0.2 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.4 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 2.5 9.0 19.7 27.5 23.8 12.9 3.8 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.6% 7.7% 7.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 3.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.6
12-6 12.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.2
11-7 23.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 22.9
10-8 27.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 26.7
9-9 19.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 19.3
8-10 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.8
7-11 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 7.7% 14.2 0.3 5.7 1.7
Lose Out 0.3% 0.8% 16.0 0.8