Towson
Colonial Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#141
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#131
Pace60.9#342
Improvement+0.4#135

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#129
First Shot-0.7#205
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#45
Layup/Dunks+1.4#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#211
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement+0.0#188

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#165
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks+1.0#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#288
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+0.4#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 13.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.3% 15.0% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.6% 13.9% 10.5%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 414 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 336   Albany W 67-62 91%     1 - 0 -8.4 -9.5 +1.4
  Nov 10, 2022 143   @ Massachusetts W 67-55 40%     2 - 0 +16.3 +3.2 +14.2
  Nov 13, 2022 148   @ Penn W 80-74 42%     3 - 0 +9.8 +7.6 +2.3
  Nov 17, 2022 138   @ UNC Greensboro W 56-53 39%     4 - 0 +7.4 -1.7 +9.6
  Nov 22, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 83-67 93%     5 - 0 +1.3 +9.6 -6.8
  Nov 25, 2022 232   Fairfield L 69-74 70%     5 - 1 -8.7 +5.1 -14.4
  Nov 26, 2022 182   South Alabama W 62-60 58%     6 - 1 +1.5 -7.9 +9.5
  Nov 27, 2022 228   Mercer W 70-60 68%     7 - 1 +6.9 +3.8 +4.2
  Dec 02, 2022 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 74-64 94%     8 - 1 -5.6 +4.2 -8.6
  Dec 07, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 75-80 18%     8 - 2 +6.6 +13.8 -7.5
  Dec 11, 2022 212   Navy L 69-71 OT 73%     8 - 3 -6.8 -6.9 +0.0
  Dec 17, 2022 160   Northern Iowa L 66-83 55%     8 - 4 -16.7 -6.1 -10.5
  Dec 22, 2022 195   @ Bryant L 59-69 51%     8 - 5 -8.6 -17.4 +9.1
  Dec 31, 2022 83   College of Charleston L 74-76 OT 42%     8 - 6 0 - 1 +1.8 -2.0 +4.0
  Jan 05, 2023 202   Drexel W 64-58 72%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +1.6 +0.4 +2.2
  Jan 07, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook W 67-55 75%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +6.6 +3.9 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2023 206   @ Delaware L 59-72 53%     10 - 7 2 - 2 -12.1 -7.6 -5.8
  Jan 14, 2023 351   Monmouth W 68-48 93%     11 - 7 3 - 2 +4.6 +0.1 +7.2
  Jan 16, 2023 107   Hofstra W 68-47 52%     12 - 7 4 - 2 +22.0 +1.4 +22.8
  Jan 19, 2023 277   @ N.C. A&T W 79-67 68%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +8.8 +10.8 -1.0
  Jan 21, 2023 334   @ Elon W 66-62 81%     14 - 7 6 - 2 -3.6 -2.7 -0.5
  Jan 26, 2023 252   Northeastern W 72-63 81%     15 - 7 7 - 2 +1.5 +2.8 -0.6
  Jan 28, 2023 305   William & Mary W 92-73 87%     16 - 7 8 - 2 +8.4 +18.1 -8.5
  Feb 02, 2023 107   @ Hofstra L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 08, 2023 342   Hampton W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 11, 2023 202   @ Drexel W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 13, 2023 305   @ William & Mary W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 16, 2023 206   Delaware W 70-64 73%    
  Feb 18, 2023 277   N.C. A&T W 74-64 84%    
  Feb 23, 2023 83   @ College of Charleston L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 25, 2023 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 62-64 42%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.7 9.9 3.3 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 14.3 22.1 8.4 0.1 46.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.9 10.5 2.7 0.0 22.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 2.5 0.3 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.7 12.7 25.5 29.6 19.9 7.0 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.0    0.7 0.2
15-3 51.2% 3.6    0.9 1.9 0.8
14-4 8.3% 1.7    0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 1.8 2.8 1.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.0% 20.7% 20.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-3 7.0% 18.7% 18.7% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.7
14-4 19.9% 14.6% 14.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 17.0
13-5 29.6% 12.0% 12.0% 13.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 26.1
12-6 25.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 23.2
11-7 12.7% 8.1% 8.1% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 11.6
10-8 3.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
9-9 0.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.4 1.9 0.1 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 20.7% 12.5 1.0 10.0 8.9 0.8