Towson
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#164
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#175
Pace64.6#295
Improvement+1.1#83

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#147
First Shot-1.7#221
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#54
Layup/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#214
Freethrows+1.9#72
Improvement+0.7#99

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot+3.1#83
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#339
Layups/Dunks+4.1#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#256
Freethrows-0.1#195
Improvement+0.4#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.4% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 70.6% 74.7% 52.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 76.5% 66.5%
Conference Champion 15.0% 16.0% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.3% 2.1%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round12.4% 13.1% 8.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 412 - 318 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 298   @ Albany W 77-56 67%     1 - 0 +16.7 +6.8 +10.5
  Nov 13, 2021 135   Monmouth L 71-79 54%     1 - 1 -8.8 -7.7 -0.5
  Nov 16, 2021 338   Hampton W 78-54 92%     2 - 1 +8.4 -3.6 +11.4
  Nov 19, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh L 59-63 46%     2 - 2 -2.8 -4.1 +0.8
  Nov 23, 2021 189   Penn W 76-61 67%     3 - 2 +10.7 +4.9 +6.8
  Nov 25, 2021 49   San Francisco L 61-71 19%     3 - 3 -0.7 +1.7 -3.8
  Nov 26, 2021 201   New Mexico W 73-58 58%     4 - 3 +13.2 +3.2 +11.3
  Dec 02, 2021 276   LIU Brooklyn W 76-67 81%    
  Dec 06, 2021 137   @ Kent St. L 65-70 32%    
  Dec 08, 2021 25   @ Ohio St. L 61-77 6%    
  Dec 11, 2021 307   @ Coppin St. W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 14, 2021 167   UNC Greensboro W 64-61 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 101   @ Navy L 61-68 24%    
  Dec 31, 2021 163   James Madison W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 03, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 05, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 09, 2022 148   Northeastern W 63-61 55%    
  Jan 11, 2022 133   Hofstra W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 273   @ Elon W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 17, 2022 332   @ William & Mary W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 20, 2022 198   College of Charleston W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington W 71-61 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 161   Delaware W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 169   Drexel W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 10, 2022 332   William & Mary W 76-61 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 273   Elon W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington W 68-64 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 69-72 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.1 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 15.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.9 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.7 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.9 4.6 1.1 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.1 5.5 1.2 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.5 4.3 0.9 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.3 0.9 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 4.7 7.2 9.6 11.8 14.3 13.5 12.0 9.6 7.5 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 98.9% 1.8    1.7 0.1
15-3 90.8% 3.3    2.7 0.7
14-4 66.8% 5.0    3.1 1.8 0.2
13-5 31.8% 3.1    1.0 1.7 0.4 0.0
12-6 9.9% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.1 4.5 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 75.6% 75.6% 12.0 0.1 0.0
17-1 0.5% 41.2% 41.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.8% 33.0% 33.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 3.7% 37.9% 37.9% 13.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3
14-4 7.5% 25.2% 25.2% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 5.6
13-5 9.6% 20.7% 20.7% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 7.6
12-6 12.0% 15.3% 15.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 10.2
11-7 13.5% 13.6% 13.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 11.7
10-8 14.3% 10.1% 10.1% 15.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 12.8
9-9 11.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 11.0
8-10 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 9.2
7-11 7.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.9
6-12 4.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-13 1.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 1.9
4-14 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 3.6 4.8 2.1 87.3 0.0%