UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.9 #121
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #110
Pace 63.4 #327
Improvement -1.5 #276

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #105 D+ B- B+ B- D+
Defense #149 B- A- C+ F A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #265 1.14 #212 -2.4 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #104 0.70 #236 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.94 #263 -1.7 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #264 -3.3 #264
Freethrows 19.2 #92 72% #184 13.8 #106
Second Chance 38.6% #22 1.04 #176 0.40 #48
Turnovers 15.2% #95
Total Offense +2.5 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #357 1.28 #306 +5.0 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #40 0.73 #167 -1.9 #307
Three Pointers 47% #45 0.92 #78 -0.7 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.4 #109
Freethrows 12.5 #15 75% #289 9.4 #25
Second Chance 28.7% #121 1.05 #198 0.30 #141
Turnovers 13.8% #331
Total Defense +0.3 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #276 -3.2% #15
Shot Type Make Effect -5.1% #248 -1.6% #153
Possession Length 19.0 #341 17.1 #183
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #344 0.19 #228
Improvement -1.8 #306 +0.3 #163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 20.8% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 96.5% 84.9%
Conference Champion 26.9% 29.8% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.6% 20.8% 13.8%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 83.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 47 - 6
Quad 415 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 130 @Kent St. L 77-86 42%     -8.5   0 - 1 -4.0 +3.7 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 15 284 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 87%     8.2   1 - 1 +3.4 +7.3 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 274 East Carolina W 85-60 87%     12.2   2 - 1 +15.7 +13.8 +3.0
  Fri, Nov 21 244 @Radford W 81-73 67%     8.3   3 - 1 +6.3 +6.1 +0.2
  Wed, Nov 26 262 SE Louisiana W 70-57 86%     -1.4   4 - 1 +4.2 +3.9 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 206 Navy W 87-57 80%     21.4   5 - 1 +24.0 +18.7 +7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 97%     12.3   6 - 1 +7.1 +6.7 +0.7
  Wed, Dec 3 168 Marshall W 70-69 74%     1.2   7 - 1 -2.8 +3.6 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 6 305 @Louisiana W 70-63 78%     2.9   8 - 1 +1.6 +4.7 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 214 @Valparaiso W 73-70 62%     -2.0   9 - 1 +2.7 +9.3 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 20 267 Howard L 66-67 86%     -4.0   9 - 2 -10.0 -6.3 -3.7
  Mon, Dec 29 308 @N.C. A&T W 87-78 79%     -0.6   10 - 2 1 - 0 +3.3 +5.3 -2.7
  Wed, Dec 31 269 Drexel W 65-53 87%     8.1   11 - 2 2 - 0 +2.9 -0.9 +5.8
  Sat, Jan 3 242 Hampton W 74-63 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 201 @Northeastern W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 @Stony Brook W 69-64 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 Campbell W 79-69 81%    
  Thu, Jan 22 111 @William & Mary L 75-79 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 242 @Hampton W 71-66 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 140 @Towson L 65-66 46%    
  Thu, Feb 5 111 William & Mary W 78-76 57%    
  Mon, Feb 9 162 @College of Charleston W 73-72 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 166 Elon W 79-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 109 Hofstra W 70-68 57%    
  Thu, Feb 19 236 Monmouth W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 227 @Campbell W 76-72 63%    
  Thu, Feb 26 308 N.C. A&T W 80-65 91%    
  Sat, Feb 28 162 College of Charleston W 75-69 70%    
  Tue, Mar 3 166 @Elon W 76-75 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.1 8.3 5.4 1.9 0.4 26.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.5 8.6 5.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.2 7.7 4.6 1.0 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 6.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 2.4 0.3 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.4 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 6.2 9.2 13.8 16.2 17.1 13.9 10.3 5.6 1.9 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.5% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 96.4% 5.4    4.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 80.2% 8.3    5.7 2.4 0.2
14-4 50.9% 7.1    3.2 3.0 0.8 0.0
13-5 19.2% 3.3    0.8 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.9% 26.9 16.5 7.8 2.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 38.9% 38.9% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.9% 38.2% 38.2% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.2
16-2 5.6% 37.7% 37.7% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 3.5
15-3 10.3% 30.0% 30.0% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.3 7.2
14-4 13.9% 26.1% 26.1% 13.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.7 0.0 10.3
13-5 17.1% 22.1% 22.1% 13.2 0.4 2.2 1.1 0.1 13.3
12-6 16.2% 18.4% 18.4% 13.5 0.1 1.5 1.3 0.1 13.3
11-7 13.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.6 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 12.0
10-8 9.2% 8.7% 8.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 8.4
9-9 6.2% 5.6% 5.6% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.9
8-10 3.1% 5.4% 5.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.3 3.9 9.6 5.2 0.5 0.1 80.4 0.0%