UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#108
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#77
Pace62.5#341
Improvement-0.5#215

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#91
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#15
Layup/Dunks-1.2#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#251
Freethrows+1.8#83
Improvement+0.5#127

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#162
First Shot+0.3#160
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#307
Freethrows+2.6#46
Improvement-1.1#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 23.2% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 94.5% 90.8%
Conference Champion 32.6% 33.5% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.6% 23.2% 17.6%
Second Round2.8% 2.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 89.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 416 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 131 @Kent St. L 77-86 46%     0 - 1 -4.2 +2.3 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 15 261 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 87%     1 - 1 +4.5 +7.3 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 18 280 East Carolina W 85-60 89%     2 - 1 +15.4 +13.3 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 21 252 @Radford W 81-73 72%     3 - 1 +5.8 +6.4 -0.7
  Wed, Nov 26 273 SE Louisiana W 70-57 88%     4 - 1 +4.1 +3.7 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 204 Navy W 87-57 82%     5 - 1 +24.0 +19.3 +6.9
  Sat, Nov 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 97%     6 - 1 +7.5 +7.3 +0.5
  Wed, Dec 3 160 Marshall W 70-69 74%     7 - 1 -2.0 +3.8 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 326 @Louisiana W 70-63 84%     8 - 1 +0.2 +3.7 -2.9
  Sat, Dec 13 212 @Valparaiso W 73-70 65%     9 - 1 +2.7 +9.1 -6.1
  Sat, Dec 20 281 Howard W 77-64 90%    
  Mon, Dec 29 302 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 285 Drexel W 74-61 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 232 Hampton W 74-63 84%    
  Thu, Jan 8 215 @Northeastern W 73-69 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 198 @Stony Brook W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 229 Campbell W 79-68 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 121 @William & Mary L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 232 @Hampton W 71-66 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 140 @Towson L 66-67 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 121 William & Mary W 79-75 63%    
  Mon, Feb 9 171 @College of Charleston W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 191 Elon W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 114 Hofstra W 71-68 62%    
  Thu, Feb 19 221 Monmouth W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 229 @Campbell W 76-71 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 302 N.C. A&T W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 171 College of Charleston W 75-67 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 191 @Elon W 77-74 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.1 8.4 9.1 6.5 2.9 0.7 32.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.6 7.9 5.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.5 3.8 0.8 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.6 2.0 0.4 7.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.6 8.8 12.2 14.9 16.2 14.9 11.2 6.7 2.9 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.8% 2.9    2.8 0.1
16-2 96.3% 6.5    5.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.6% 9.1    6.6 2.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 56.3% 8.4    4.2 3.3 0.8 0.0
13-5 25.3% 4.1    1.2 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.6% 32.6 21.2 8.4 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 53.3% 51.3% 2.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4.2%
17-1 2.9% 45.9% 45.9% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.6
16-2 6.7% 37.8% 37.8% 12.1 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.2
15-3 11.2% 34.5% 34.5% 12.4 0.1 2.1 1.5 0.1 7.3
14-4 14.9% 29.5% 29.5% 12.6 0.0 1.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.5
13-5 16.2% 24.6% 24.6% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 12.2
12-6 14.9% 19.2% 19.2% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.8 0.0 12.1
11-7 12.2% 14.9% 14.9% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 10.4
10-8 8.8% 10.0% 10.0% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.0
9-9 5.6% 6.7% 6.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.2
8-10 3.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 8.2 9.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.2 1.1 4.3 4.3 2.2 9.7 17.2 48.4 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 5.9% 11.5 2.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 5.4% 11.0 5.4