UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#152
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#90
Pace63.3#308
Improvement-1.4#331

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#217
First Shot-0.9#213
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#212
Layup/Dunks-3.3#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#303
Freethrows+3.3#11
Improvement-1.5#343

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#114
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#174
Layups/Dunks+0.1#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#28
Freethrows-0.9#253
Improvement+0.1#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 8.6% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 97.2%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.2% 8.6% 6.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 25 - 7
Quad 415 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 26   @ North Carolina L 56-69 9%     0 - 1 +2.6 -5.1 +6.6
  Nov 15, 2022 43   @ Oklahoma L 53-74 12%     0 - 2 -7.7 -5.6 -5.2
  Nov 18, 2022 6   @ Connecticut L 50-86 5%     0 - 3 -16.0 -10.2 -8.2
  Nov 25, 2022 136   Missouri St. W 68-54 46%     1 - 3 +15.8 +1.6 +15.3
  Nov 26, 2022 146   Vermont W 68-66 48%     2 - 3 +3.2 +0.7 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2022 80   North Texas W 55-51 29%     3 - 3 +10.6 +0.2 +11.3
  Nov 30, 2022 246   @ Coastal Carolina W 60-58 59%     4 - 3 +0.3 -11.7 +12.1
  Dec 06, 2022 205   East Carolina W 74-61 69%     5 - 3 +8.5 +7.7 +2.4
  Dec 10, 2022 197   Jacksonville W 81-53 68%     6 - 3 +23.9 +16.9 +10.5
  Dec 18, 2022 304   High Point W 85-82 85%     7 - 3 -7.5 -0.8 -7.0
  Dec 21, 2022 255   @ Campbell W 74-66 61%     8 - 3 +5.9 +6.7 +0.0
  Dec 28, 2022 351   @ Monmouth W 68-55 84%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +3.0 -1.0 +5.1
  Dec 31, 2022 342   Hampton W 82-65 91%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +2.5 +3.9 -0.7
  Jan 04, 2023 334   @ Elon W 81-66 79%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +7.4 +8.7 -0.6
  Jan 07, 2023 277   @ N.C. A&T W 66-61 65%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +1.8 -7.6 +9.5
  Jan 11, 2023 83   College of Charleston L 69-71 38%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +1.8 +5.4 -3.8
  Jan 14, 2023 305   William & Mary L 67-69 85%     12 - 5 4 - 2 -12.6 -9.4 -3.2
  Jan 16, 2023 334   Elon W 62-54 90%     13 - 5 5 - 2 -5.1 -10.1 +5.9
  Jan 19, 2023 107   @ Hofstra L 46-70 29%     13 - 6 5 - 3 -17.5 -19.3 -1.2
  Jan 21, 2023 313   @ Stony Brook W 62-51 72%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +5.6 -5.5 +12.5
  Jan 26, 2023 351   Monmouth W 52-49 93%     15 - 6 7 - 3 -12.4 -19.8 +7.7
  Feb 02, 2023 277   N.C. A&T W 73-64 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 305   @ William & Mary W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 08, 2023 83   @ College of Charleston L 66-75 20%    
  Feb 11, 2023 252   Northeastern W 68-60 78%    
  Feb 16, 2023 202   @ Drexel L 61-62 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 206   @ Delaware L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 23, 2023 313   Stony Brook W 69-57 87%    
  Feb 25, 2023 141   Towson W 64-62 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.3 0.6 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 11.9 16.3 4.7 0.1 35.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 15.9 15.8 3.7 0.1 38.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.4 4.4 0.5 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.2 10.8 22.4 28.6 23.0 9.9 1.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 56.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2
14-4 8.0% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.5% 13.7% 13.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 9.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.7
13-5 23.0% 10.3% 10.3% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 20.6
12-6 28.6% 8.1% 8.1% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 26.3
11-7 22.4% 6.4% 6.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 21.0
10-8 10.8% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 10.2
9-9 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
8-10 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.0 1.0 0.0 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 13.7% 12.4 0.9 6.8 5.9 0.1
Lose Out 0.0%