UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.1 #115
Expected Predictive Rating +6.4 #85
Pace 64.2 #303
Improvement -1.1 #235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #113 D+ B- B- B- D+
Defense #139 C+ C+ D- B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.09 #265 -3.3 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #108 0.70 #277 +0.5 #152
Three Pointers 41% #181 1.00 #212 -0.3 #191
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #269 -3.0 #267
Freethrows 0.35 #39 71% #234 0.25 #70
Second Chance 35.3% #54 1.06 #149 0.38 #70
Turnovers 14.8% #82
Total Offense +2.3 #113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.25 #290 +3.2 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #73 0.84 #310 -2.4 #335
Three Pointers 45% #68 0.89 #36 +0.7 #148
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #129 +1.5 #129
Freethrows 0.24 #24 74% #254 0.17 #30
Second Chance 26.0% #43 1.10 #270 0.29 #101
Turnovers 13.3% #336
Total Defense +0.8 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #278 -2.0% #34
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.6% #253 -0.9% #164
Possession Length 18.9 #321 17.5 #201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #322 0.17 #194
Improvement -0.9 #233 -0.2 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 28.4% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 80.8% 87.5% 67.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round26.9% 28.4% 23.9%
Second Round2.0% 2.2% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 39 - 39 - 5
Quad 416 - 225 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 144 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 47% -8  0 - 1 -5 +3 F A- A+ -8 F B- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 301 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 90% +8  1 - 1 +2 +8 C- A+ D+ -4 B- D C
 Tue, Nov 18 257 East Carolina W 85 - 60 86% +12  2 - 1 +16 +14 A+ C C- +3 B- B D-
 Fri, Nov 21 243 @Radford W 81 - 73 67% +8  3 - 1 +6 +6 B B F +1 C- B B
 Wed, Nov 26 265 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 86% -1  4 - 1 +4 +5 D C- A- +1 B- B F
 Fri, Nov 28 176 Navy W 87 - 57 76% +21  5 - 1 +26 +21 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  6 - 1 +5 +6 B- D+ A- -1 D+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 165 Marshall W 70 - 69 74% +1  7 - 1 -2 +3 F B- A+ -6 B+ F+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 310 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 80% +3  8 - 1 +1 +3 D C C- -1 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 13 166 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 52% -2  9 - 1 +6 +10 D A+ B+ -5 A- F F
 Sat, Dec 20 275 Howard L 66 - 67 88% -4  9 - 2 -10 -5 F B+ C- -5 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 289 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 76% -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +5 +5 C C- D- -1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 200 Drexel W 65 - 53 79% +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +3 F+ B A+ +6 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 237 Hampton W 49 - 45 84% +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -3 -17 F D+ D+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 253 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 70% +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +7 F B- C -1 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 222 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 64% -8  14 - 2 5 - 0 +3 +7 C+ A- C -3 C+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 221 Campbell W 78 - 75 82% -4  15 - 2 6 - 0 -4 +3 C- F A+ -6 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 134 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 44% -11  15 - 3 6 - 1 -2 -3 F C- C +1 B B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 237 @Hampton W 75 - 67 67% +3  16 - 3 7 - 1 +7 +16 C A B+ -8 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 170 @Towson W 82 - 73 53% +3  17 - 3 8 - 1 +11 +20 A- C+ A+ -8 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 134 William & Mary W 80 - 75 67%
 Mon, Feb 9 155 @College of Charleston L 72 - 73 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 181 Elon W 79 - 71 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 135 Hofstra W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 199 Monmouth W 73 - 65 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 @Campbell W 78 - 74 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 289 N.C. A&T W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 155 College of Charleston W 76 - 70 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 181 @Elon W 76 - 74 57%
Totals 23 - 6 14 - 4 +3 +2 D+ B- B- +1 C+ C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 11.7 22.9 24.1 15.2 4.5 80.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.8 1.8 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 1.8 0.3 3.7 3rd
4th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 9.3 17.8 24.7 24.3 15.2 4.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.5    4.5
16-2 100.0% 15.2    15.2
15-3 99.4% 24.1    23.1 1.1
14-4 92.7% 22.9    18.0 4.8 0.2
13-5 66.1% 11.7    5.6 5.0 1.1 0.1
12-6 25.3% 2.4    0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 80.8% 80.8 66.6 11.9 2.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.5% 38.4% 38.4% 11.8 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.8
16-2 15.2% 34.6% 34.6% 12.5 0.1 2.6 2.4 0.2 9.9
15-3 24.3% 30.8% 30.8% 12.8 0.0 2.3 4.3 0.8 0.0 16.8
14-4 24.7% 25.5% 25.5% 13.1 0.0 1.1 3.8 1.4 0.0 18.4
13-5 17.8% 21.8% 21.8% 13.3 0.4 2.1 1.3 0.1 13.9
12-6 9.3% 17.7% 17.7% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 7.7
11-7 3.3% 14.7% 14.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.8
10-8 0.8% 13.7% 13.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 12.9 73.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 11.8 24.4 66.6 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%