UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.7 109
Results Rating +6.9 83
Consistency 0.11 26
Pace 63.8 310
Improvement +1.0 158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 120 D+ B- B B D+
Defense C+ 117 B- B- D B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 D+ 55% 265 -3.6 302
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 132 D 33% 323 +0.3 152
Three Pointers 41% 173 C 34% 158 +0.3 163
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 289 D+ -2.1 251
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 269
Second Chance B- 33.3% 94 C+ 1.06 120 B- 0.35 90
Turnovers B 14.8% 64
Freethrows A- 0.37 17 D+ 70% 269 B 0.26 53
Total Offense C+ +1.8 120

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 255 B 8.6% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 139 C 4.9% 183
Three Pointers C 83% 207 D 1.4% 303
Total C 54% 202 B- 4.8% 85

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 347 D+ 61% 274 -3.7 63
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 46 C 38% 196 +1.9 324
Three Pointers 44% 84 B+ 30% 32 -1.0 137
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.2 26 C+ -1.6 113
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 89
Second Chance B 26.4% 50 C- 1.05 225 B- 0.28 80
Turnovers D 14.2% 330
Freethrows B 0.25 39 D 75% 307 B 0.19 62
Total Defense C+ +1.9 117

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 87 D- 5.9% 346
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 53 B- 6.3% 90
Three Pointers B- 80% 83 C 0.9% 170
Total B 50% 63 D 3.8% 318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 310 17.5 228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 297 0.17 177
Consistency 0.11 95 0.09 11
Improvement -1.0 237 +2.0 74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 128 111 98
Results Rating Rank 103 89 57
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 29% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 100% 92%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 29% 24%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 39 - 310 - 4
Quad 416 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 145 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 50% -8  0% 0 - 1 D+ -5 C +1 F A- A+ D -6 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 298 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 91% +8  77% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 D+ A C- C -1 B D C
 Tue, Nov 18 247 East Carolina W 85 - 60 86% +12  89% 2 - 1 A- +17 A +11 A+ C C- A- +7 B B+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 233 @Radford W 81 - 73 68% +8  95% 3 - 1 B- +7 B- +4 B B+ F+ B- +3 D+ B+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 290 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 90% -1  37% 4 - 1 C+ +2 C +0 D- D+ A- B +4 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 153 Navy W 87 - 57 73% +21  99% 5 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +19 A+ A+ F A +10 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 364 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  79% 6 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- D+ A C+ +1 C A C
 Wed, Dec 3 178 Marshall W 70 - 69 77% +1  57% 7 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 F C A+ C -1 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 291 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 79% +3  75% 8 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 D C C+ B- +2 C+ C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 150 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 51% -2  38% 9 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 F+ A+ B+ C -1 A- F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 202 Howard L 66 - 67 80% -4  28% 9 - 2 D+ -6 D -6 F A C C -0 C+ C- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 270 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 75% -1  48% 10 - 2 1 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 C D+ D B- +2 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 216 Drexel W 65 - 53 82% +8  92% 11 - 2 2 - 0 B- +6 C -0 F+ B A A- +8 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 259 Hampton W 49 - 45 87% +4  81% 12 - 2 3 - 0 C- -5 F -20 F D+ D+ A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 79% +1  48% 13 - 2 4 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 F B C- C+ +0 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 214 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 64% -8  26% 14 - 2 5 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 B- A C+ C -1 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 196 Campbell W 78 - 75 80% -4  22% 15 - 2 6 - 0 C- -2 C +1 C F A+ D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 136 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 47% -11  0% 15 - 3 6 - 1 C- -2 D- -6 F C- C- B +4 B B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 259 @Hampton W 75 - 67 73% +3  66% 16 - 3 7 - 1 B- +5 A +13 C- A+ B+ D- -7 D- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 174 @Towson W 82 - 73 56% +3  82% 17 - 3 8 - 1 B +11 A+ +18 A B- A+ D -6 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 136 William & Mary L 78 - 85 69% +2  68% 17 - 4 8 - 2 D -8 B- +4 A+ D- C+ F -13 B+ F D
 Mon, Feb 9 149 @College of Charleston W 76 - 64 51% +9  97% 18 - 4 9 - 2 A- +15 B +6 D A- A+ A +10 B B- B
 Thu, Feb 12 227 Elon W 65 - 54 84% +9  97% 19 - 4 10 - 2 C+ +4 D- -7 C- C+ F A+ +13 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 106 Hofstra W 70 - 66 60% +0  47% 20 - 4 11 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 B- D+ A C+ +1 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 19 198 Monmouth W 79 - 69 80% -0  41% 21 - 4 12 - 2 C+ +5 C +1 F C- A+ B +4 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 196 @Campbell W 73 - 68 61% -1  26% 22 - 4 13 - 2 B- +6 C- -2 F D A A- +8 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 270 N.C. A&T W 80 - 67 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 College of Charleston W 73 - 67 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 227 @Elon W 77 - 73 66%
Totals 24 - 5 15 - 3 +4 C+ +2 D D+ D+ C+ +2 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ D C D+ 34% 41% 41% D+ D+ B- C+ B- B A- D+ B C+ D+ C B+ C+ 30% 25% 44% B+ B- B C- B- D B D B
1.11 55% 33% 34% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.1 .35 15% .37 70% .26 1.06 61% 38% 30% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.1 .28 14% .25 75% .28
Nov
10		 Kent St. C F A- F F 51% 15% 34% B+ F B A A- A+ D- C D D F A- F F 23% 15% 63% B- F A+ F B- D- C- B C
1.07 42% 44% 19% -15 +2 0.75 35% 1.2 .42 10% .28 72% .20 1.19 82% 29% 43% +13 0 1.27 23% 1.4 .33 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
15		 South Carolina Upstate B- C D- B C- 52% 30% 18% D D+ A+ D- A C- A+ B A+ C B C+ B- C+ 27% 38% 36% A+ B F+ C D C D- D+ F+
1.19 57% 31% 38% -2 0 0.98 50% 1.0 .50 16% .54 75% .41 0.98 50% 35% 31% -5 -3 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 18% .36 72% .26
Nov
18		 East Carolina A A+ F+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ C C C C- A+ C+ A+ A- B C- A C 15% 43% 43% A+ B A- B B+ D A+ F B+
1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38 0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19
Nov
21		 Radford B- B D B+ B 49% 13% 38% B B A+ D B+ F+ B+ F D+ B- B A F D 24% 14% 61% B- D+ B B B+ B C+ F+ C-
1.16 65% 33% 39% +6 +2 1.17 45% 1.0 .45 21% .38 57% .22 1.04 50% 29% 40% +2 0 1.06 25% 0.9 .22 20% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 SE Louisiana C A+ B- F D- 26% 28% 47% D- D- C D- D+ A- A+ C+ A+ B F D- A+ B- 21% 27% 52% B+ B- A B- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 82% 42% 20% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.0 .31 16% .57 77% .44 0.91 91% 43% 15% -7 -2 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 11% .22 50% .11
Nov
28		 Navy A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 26% 35% 39% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C+ A A A- A A+ A+ 39% 19% 43% D A+ C- A+ A+ D- A+ F A
1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26 0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18
Nov
29		 Gardner-Webb C+ A- D+ A+ B+ 32% 21% 47% D B- F A+ D+ A F C- F C+ B A+ F+ C 35% 14% 51% C C B- A+ A C B- F C
1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13 0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18
Dec
3		 Marshall C- B+ F F+ F 21% 38% 40% F F A- F+ C A+ A+ B- A+ C F D+ A+ B- 17% 42% 42% A+ B+ C F F C A F C+
1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51 1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18
Dec
6		 Louisiana C F+ F B+ D- 47% 12% 42% B D C+ C- C C+ A- D+ B+ B- B- C B- B- 27% 25% 48% D- C+ B+ F C- D- C F+ D+
1.10 50% 20% 39% -3 +2 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 17% .45 71% .32 0.99 50% 38% 32% -3 -1 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 14% .24 77% .18
Dec
13		 Valparaiso B+ D+ C- F F 35% 20% 46% C F+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A+ A 28% 34% 38% B A- F B- F+ F F+ D- F
1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35 1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31
Dec
20		 Howard D C- D- F F 36% 28% 36% F F B+ B+ A C B C- B- C C A+ F C- 33% 39% 27% A+ C+ C C C- C+ A+ F A-
0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26 1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19
Dec
29		 N.C. A&T C+ F C A+ C 41% 20% 39% C C C+ F D+ D A+ A A+ B- B+ F B C 32% 33% 35% B+ C A+ F A+ F C B B-
1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43 1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25
Dec
31		 Drexel C F A+ F D- 30% 37% 33% F F+ C+ A B A A+ D- A+ A- B F+ A+ A+ 18% 25% 57% A+ A+ F F F C- F B F
1.08 38% 50% 21% -8 -3 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 10% .52 71% .37 0.88 50% 45% 12% -18 -2 0.61 38% 1.1 .40 18% .39 63% .24
Jan
3		 Hampton F B- C- F F 29% 33% 38% F F C D- D+ D+ B+ F F A+ B C A+ A+ 33% 35% 33% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+
0.82 67% 36% 19% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.9 .26 18% .43 38% .16 0.75 50% 35% 13% -14 -2 0.69 22% 0.7 .15 13% .17 78% .14
Jan
8		 Northeastern B- F F B+ F 50% 13% 38% B+ F B B B C- A+ A+ A+ C+ D A+ B- C- 51% 15% 35% D- C- B+ D+ B- F F A+ D+
1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50 1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21
Jan
10		 Stony Brook B- D F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% C+ B- C- A+ A C+ C- F F C A F A+ B- 30% 21% 49% B B- A- F F D A+ F A+
1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13 1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09
Jan
17		 Campbell C B- D C- C- 54% 23% 23% B- C D+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B- F 43% 15% 41% C+ F C+ A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.15 64% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.08 29% 0.7 .20 10% .41 80% .33 1.11 70% 57% 32% +7 +1 1.17 32% 0.5 .16 21% .45 71% .32
Jan
22		 William & Mary D- F F D F 27% 12% 61% C- F C+ D C- C- A+ D A+ B D+ F A B+ 37% 6% 58% C- B A+ F B D- C- B- C-
0.96 38% 17% 30% -11 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38 1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26
Jan
24		 Hampton A A- D+ F C 44% 29% 27% D C- B A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+ D- F D C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% B+ D- B F F+ F A+ A+ A+
1.25 72% 33% 27% +2 -1 1.05 33% 1.4 .47 13% .52 70% .37 1.12 67% 40% 32% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.3 .39 13% .15 63% .10
Jan
29		 Towson A+ F A+ A+ A+ 24% 24% 52% D- A C+ B B- A+ A+ B+ A+ D B- F A+ F 37% 35% 27% B- F+ A+ C+ A+ F F C- F
1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30 1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 William & Mary B- A A- A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F A+ F+ C- D- C+ C F D F A- A+ F B+ 43% 17% 40% B B+ F F F D F C F
1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16 1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31
Feb
9		 College of Charleston B A+ F B- D+ 23% 37% 40% F D C A+ A- A+ B C B A B- F A+ B- 27% 33% 40% A+ B A F B- B F+ F F
1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19 0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
12		 Elon D- F D- A C- 25% 20% 55% D+ C- D A+ C+ F D F F A+ B+ B A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% A+ A+ B+ A A- D- B A- B+
1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12 0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17
Feb
14		 Hofstra B- A B- D B+ 30% 38% 33% F B- C- D- D+ A A+ F A+ C+ F A+ C- B- 17% 38% 46% A+ B+ A- A- A F F B- F
1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40 1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31
Feb
19		 Monmouth C F+ F B+ F 45% 20% 35% C F F+ A+ C- A+ A+ A A+ B F B+ B D 22% 43% 35% A+ C C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.10 48% 0% 39% -9 +1 0.84 24% 1.2 .30 11% .55 80% .44 0.96 90% 30% 31% +2 -4 0.98 30% 0.5 .15 25% .41 86% .35
Feb
21		 Campbell C- F F C- F 37% 22% 41% C- F A- F D A A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ F A- 56% 17% 27% C- B+ A+ F+ A+ F A- F B
1.07 47% 18% 33% -9 0 0.84 39% 0.7 .28 13% .56 61% .34 0.99 48% 0% 43% -8 +2 0.88 18% 1.2 .21 10% .31 79% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 13.3 42.2 43.3 99.2 1st
2nd 0.8 0.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.3 13.3 42.2 43.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 43.3    43.3
15-3 100.0% 42.2    42.2
14-4 100.0% 13.3    6.5 6.7
13-5 35.6% 0.5    0.5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.2% 99.2 92.0 7.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 43.3% 30.5% 30.5% 12.3 0.5 8.1 4.4 0.2 30.1
15-3 42.2% 28.0% 28.0% 12.8 0.1 3.4 7.2 1.1 0.0 30.3
14-4 13.3% 23.6% 23.6% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 10.1
13-5 1.3% 19.2% 19.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 12.6 71.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.2% 100.0% 12.3 3.7 61.7 33.5 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.3%
Lose Out 0.5%