Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#282
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 26.0% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.2 13.0
.500 or above 91.2% 96.7% 87.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 93.4% 85.9%
Conference Champion 29.6% 38.1% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round21.1% 26.0% 17.7%
Second Round3.0% 4.1% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 416 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2025 126   @ Kent St. L 67-69 41%    
  Nov 15, 2025 336   South Carolina Upstate W 84-68 94%    
  Nov 18, 2025 158   East Carolina W 71-65 70%    
  Nov 21, 2025 150   @ Radford L 66-67 47%    
  Nov 26, 2025 243   SE Louisiana W 74-64 82%    
  Nov 28, 2025 224   Navy W 74-65 79%    
  Nov 29, 2025 307   Gardner-Webb W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 03, 2025 187   Marshall W 75-67 75%    
  Dec 06, 2025 234   @ Louisiana W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 13, 2025 261   @ Valparaiso W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 20, 2025 324   Howard W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 29, 2025 351   @ N.C. A&T W 77-65 85%    
  Dec 31, 2025 227   Drexel W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 03, 2026 236   Hampton W 72-62 80%    
  Jan 08, 2026 226   @ Northeastern W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 10, 2026 288   @ Stony Brook W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 17, 2026 203   Campbell W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 22, 2026 229   @ William & Mary W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 24, 2026 236   @ Hampton W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 29, 2026 131   @ Towson L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 05, 2026 229   William & Mary W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 09, 2026 123   @ College of Charleston L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 12, 2026 228   Elon W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 14, 2026 178   Hofstra W 67-60 72%    
  Feb 19, 2026 211   Monmouth W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 21, 2026 203   @ Campbell W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 26, 2026 351   N.C. A&T W 80-62 93%    
  Feb 28, 2026 123   College of Charleston W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 03, 2026 228   @ Elon W 69-66 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.4 7.9 7.5 4.7 1.7 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.0 6.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.2 8.5 10.3 12.4 13.1 12.8 11.1 8.1 4.7 1.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 99.4% 4.7    4.4 0.2
16-2 92.3% 7.5    6.3 1.2 0.0
15-3 71.3% 7.9    5.2 2.4 0.3
14-4 42.2% 5.4    2.3 2.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 16.0% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 20.3 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 66.1% 63.9% 2.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 6.2%
17-1 4.7% 52.7% 52.1% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 1.1%
16-2 8.1% 42.9% 42.9% 12.0 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.6
15-3 11.1% 34.8% 34.8% 12.5 0.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.2
14-4 12.8% 27.7% 27.7% 13.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.3
13-5 13.1% 20.8% 20.8% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 10.4
12-6 12.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.6
11-7 10.3% 10.4% 10.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.2
10-8 8.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.0
9-9 6.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.0
8-10 4.7% 2.0% 2.0% 18.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
7-11 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.0% 21.0% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.8 6.4 5.7 3.5 1.5 0.5 79.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 7.3 2.5 8.8 16.2 15.0 18.8 5.1 7.5 17.5 6.2 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 0.5% 6.3 0.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 44.6% 10.8 10.9 33.7