UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#283
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#281
Pace66.1#255
Improvement-1.8#310

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#280
First Shot-5.2#317
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#95
Layup/Dunks-3.7#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#249
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement+0.8#96

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#261
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#295
Layups/Dunks+2.7#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#115
Freethrows-3.0#323
Improvement-2.5#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 14.6% 20.2% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 20.2% 23.2% 16.5%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 17.2% 24.2%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 93 - 11
Quad 48 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 241   @ Illinois St. L 63-68 30%     0 - 1 -6.1 -11.5 +5.3
  Nov 16, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh L 51-59 23%     0 - 2 -6.8 -15.8 +8.4
  Nov 18, 2021 227   Coastal Carolina W 65-53 48%     1 - 2 +6.1 -9.9 +16.1
  Nov 20, 2021 356   @ Delaware St. W 67-63 82%     2 - 2 -12.1 -6.2 -5.3
  Nov 24, 2021 247   Southern Miss L 66-80 43%     2 - 3 -18.6 -6.0 -12.7
  Dec 01, 2021 250   Norfolk St. W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 11, 2021 257   @ Jacksonville L 61-65 36%    
  Dec 18, 2021 282   @ High Point L 62-65 38%    
  Dec 22, 2021 179   Campbell L 60-63 41%    
  Dec 29, 2021 161   Delaware L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 31, 2021 169   Drexel L 65-68 38%    
  Jan 03, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 05, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 56-67 16%    
  Jan 09, 2022 332   William & Mary W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 11, 2022 273   Elon W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 17, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston L 73-81 24%    
  Jan 20, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 22, 2022 164   @ Towson L 61-71 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 148   Northeastern L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 133   Hofstra L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 03, 2022 273   @ Elon L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 332   @ William & Mary W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 198   College of Charleston L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 17, 2022 164   Towson L 64-68 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 163   James Madison L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 24, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 26, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 66-76 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.6 0.2 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 3.9 3.2 0.2 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 4.3 0.8 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 5.0 7.5 5.1 0.7 0.0 20.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.4 8.2 7.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 24.8 9th
10th 0.5 2.0 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 13.0 10th
Total 0.5 2.1 5.3 8.3 12.1 13.2 13.7 14.0 10.8 8.2 5.6 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 84.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 63.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-5 44.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 17.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 16.9% 16.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 12.2% 12.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 8.6% 8.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-6 1.7% 14.1% 14.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
11-7 3.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8
10-8 5.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.4
9-9 8.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.8
8-10 10.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 10.6
7-11 14.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.9
6-12 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-15 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.3
2-16 5.3% 5.3
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%