College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#123
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#146
Pace76.4#31
Improvement+2.3#32

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#144
First Shot-1.2#204
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#55
Layup/Dunks-0.7#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows+1.9#69
Improvement+2.9#5

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#125
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#14
Layups/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#101
Freethrows-1.2#263
Improvement-0.7#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.4% 24.2% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.3 12.7 13.5
.500 or above 93.5% 98.0% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 97.1% 94.2%
Conference Champion 26.2% 34.1% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round20.2% 24.0% 19.1%
Second Round3.1% 4.7% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Neutral) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 158   Iona W 71-69 71%     1 - 0 -0.6 -6.7 +6.0
  Nov 10, 2023 88   Duquesne L 72-90 39%     1 - 1 -12.0 -7.4 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2023 101   Vermont L 64-73 44%     1 - 2 -4.5 -5.3 +0.5
  Nov 17, 2023 150   Wyoming L 60-67 59%     1 - 3 -6.2 -10.7 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2023 308   @ Coastal Carolina W 80-72 78%     2 - 3 +3.0 +0.5 +2.2
  Nov 26, 2023 107   @ Kent St. W 84-78 35%     3 - 3 +13.1 +13.6 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2023 42   Liberty L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 02, 2023 18   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-84 9%    
  Dec 10, 2023 178   Rhode Island W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 14, 2023 280   The Citadel W 79-67 87%    
  Dec 18, 2023 308   Coastal Carolina W 84-70 90%    
  Dec 21, 2023 124   Saint Joseph's W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 04, 2024 106   @ Hofstra L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 06, 2024 258   @ Stony Brook W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 11, 2024 292   Elon W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 13, 2024 245   Monmouth W 80-70 83%    
  Jan 18, 2024 199   Towson W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 20, 2024 136   @ UNC Wilmington L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 25, 2024 324   @ Hampton W 85-75 82%    
  Jan 27, 2024 310   @ Campbell W 73-65 79%    
  Feb 01, 2024 136   UNC Wilmington W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 03, 2024 311   @ William & Mary W 80-72 77%    
  Feb 08, 2024 360   N.C. A&T W 92-70 98%    
  Feb 10, 2024 147   Drexel W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 15, 2024 223   @ Northeastern W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 19, 2024 311   William & Mary W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 22, 2024 172   @ Delaware W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 24, 2024 199   @ Towson W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 29, 2024 310   Campbell W 76-62 89%    
  Mar 02, 2024 106   Hofstra W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.3 8.7 6.7 3.2 1.0 26.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.9 6.6 7.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.3 6.9 1.8 0.2 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 5.0 1.8 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.0 1.2 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.7 5.2 8.5 11.3 14.8 16.6 14.9 12.1 7.3 3.2 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.8% 3.2    3.1 0.1
16-2 92.3% 6.7    5.6 1.1 0.0
15-3 72.0% 8.7    4.8 3.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 35.5% 5.3    1.5 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.3% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 16.0 8.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 76.2% 69.1% 7.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 23.1%
17-1 3.2% 54.3% 53.8% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 1.2%
16-2 7.3% 40.6% 40.6% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.3
15-3 12.1% 32.8% 32.8% 13.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.1 8.1
14-4 14.9% 23.9% 23.9% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.1 0.2 11.4
13-5 16.6% 18.5% 18.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 13.5
12-6 14.8% 15.1% 15.1% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 12.5
11-7 11.3% 10.3% 10.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 10.2
10-8 8.5% 7.6% 7.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.8
9-9 5.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.0
8-10 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.7
7-11 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.4% 20.3% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 4.0 6.8 5.5 2.5 0.5 79.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 93.1% 4.9 69.0 3.4 10.3 6.9 3.4