College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#198
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#79
Pace90.2#1
Improvement-0.8#243

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#191
First Shot-1.8#225
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#102
Layup/Dunks-1.8#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#154
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-0.7#253

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#204
First Shot-5.3#326
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#6
Layups/Dunks-2.7#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#81
Freethrows-2.8#317
Improvement-0.1#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 10.1% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 67.3% 82.6% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.5% 69.6% 59.4%
Conference Champion 8.7% 12.5% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.1% 3.6%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round7.5% 9.9% 6.8%
Second Round0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 412 - 318 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 354   South Carolina St. W 106-74 95%     1 - 0 +11.5 -1.0 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2021 222   Lipscomb W 86-77 65%     2 - 0 +3.4 -4.8 +6.8
  Nov 13, 2021 287   Loyola Maryland W 79-72 78%     3 - 0 -2.8 -3.7 +0.4
  Nov 16, 2021 43   North Carolina L 83-94 20%     3 - 1 -3.6 -4.0 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2021 32   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-96 7%     3 - 2 -15.0 -5.8 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2021 100   @ Chattanooga W 68-66 19%     4 - 2 +9.8 -0.6 +10.4
  Nov 30, 2021 168   Tulane W 81-77 56%     5 - 2 +0.9 +0.9 -0.3
  Dec 03, 2021 105   @ Furman L 78-87 20%    
  Dec 07, 2021 168   @ Tulane L 75-79 34%    
  Dec 12, 2021 293   Presbyterian W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 16, 2021 268   @ Stetson W 79-78 56%    
  Dec 19, 2021 78   Rhode Island L 75-83 22%    
  Dec 22, 2021 228   @ Old Dominion L 72-73 44%    
  Dec 29, 2021 169   Drexel W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 31, 2021 161   Delaware W 83-82 53%    
  Jan 03, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 05, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 80-87 26%    
  Jan 09, 2022 273   Elon W 87-79 75%    
  Jan 11, 2022 332   William & Mary W 87-74 87%    
  Jan 17, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 20, 2022 164   @ Towson L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 163   @ James Madison L 81-86 33%    
  Jan 27, 2022 133   Hofstra L 83-84 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 148   Northeastern L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 03, 2022 332   @ William & Mary W 84-77 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 273   @ Elon W 84-82 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 17, 2022 163   James Madison W 84-83 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 164   Towson W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 80-85 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 75-79 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.9 3.8 0.7 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 5.9 4.5 0.9 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 6.1 4.3 0.7 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 5.7 4.8 1.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.5 4.2 7.3 10.1 12.8 13.8 13.3 11.9 9.5 6.2 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 97.7% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 91.0% 1.8    1.5 0.3
14-4 68.5% 2.6    1.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 34.5% 2.1    0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 10.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.8 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 52.4% 52.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 52.4%
17-1 0.2% 40.7% 40.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.9% 27.0% 27.0% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.0% 19.5% 19.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-4 3.7% 22.6% 22.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 2.9
13-5 6.2% 20.1% 20.1% 14.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.9
12-6 9.5% 11.4% 11.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 8.4
11-7 11.9% 10.6% 10.6% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 10.6
10-8 13.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 12.4
9-9 13.8% 6.4% 6.4% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 12.9
8-10 12.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.2 0.2 12.5
7-11 10.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.0
6-12 7.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.2
5-13 4.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-14 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.4 92.3 0.0%