College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#83
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#24
Pace77.0#23
Improvement-0.5#247

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#69
First Shot+1.6#118
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#37
Layup/Dunks-2.6#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#63
Freethrows+1.2#89
Improvement-0.9#306

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#99
First Shot+2.5#98
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#159
Layups/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#30
Freethrows+3.8#5
Improvement+0.4#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.7% 55.5% 46.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 8.2% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.3% 90.3% 67.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 3.8% 0.6%
First Round50.9% 53.1% 46.0%
Second Round12.5% 13.5% 10.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 3.6% 2.5%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 23 - 03 - 1
Quad 38 - 210 - 3
Quad 417 - 027 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 164   Chattanooga W 85-78 81%     1 - 0 +4.5 +1.5 +2.4
  Nov 11, 2022 26   @ North Carolina L 86-102 19%     1 - 1 -0.4 +13.0 -12.0
  Nov 14, 2022 125   Richmond W 92-90 OT 75%     2 - 1 +1.7 +6.3 -5.0
  Nov 17, 2022 123   Davidson W 89-66 74%     3 - 1 +22.9 +16.1 +6.8
  Nov 18, 2022 113   Colorado St. W 74-64 71%     4 - 1 +10.7 -2.3 +12.8
  Nov 20, 2022 49   Virginia Tech W 77-75 47%     5 - 1 +9.3 +3.7 +5.4
  Nov 23, 2022 73   Kent St. W 74-72 58%     6 - 1 +6.4 +5.3 +1.1
  Nov 29, 2022 176   Old Dominion W 75-60 81%     7 - 1 +12.1 +6.4 +6.7
  Dec 03, 2022 301   @ The Citadel W 79-57 86%     8 - 1 +17.0 +2.2 +14.5
  Dec 06, 2022 330   @ Presbyterian W 67-62 90%     9 - 1 -2.3 -5.1 +3.2
  Dec 14, 2022 199   Stetson W 65-60 84%     10 - 1 +0.8 -5.3 +6.8
  Dec 19, 2022 246   @ Coastal Carolina W 83-69 78%     11 - 1 +12.3 +1.4 +9.9
  Dec 29, 2022 342   Hampton W 89-61 96%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +13.5 +1.0 +10.5
  Dec 31, 2022 141   @ Towson W 76-74 OT 58%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +6.4 +0.1 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2023 277   @ N.C. A&T W 92-79 82%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +9.8 +5.6 +2.6
  Jan 07, 2023 206   Delaware W 75-64 85%     15 - 1 4 - 0 +6.5 -1.4 +7.7
  Jan 11, 2023 152   @ UNC Wilmington W 71-69 62%     16 - 1 5 - 0 +5.4 +9.7 -4.0
  Jan 14, 2023 334   Elon W 78-60 96%     17 - 1 6 - 0 +4.9 +0.7 +4.6
  Jan 16, 2023 305   William & Mary W 82-54 94%     18 - 1 7 - 0 +17.4 +0.7 +16.1
  Jan 19, 2023 351   @ Monmouth W 69-55 93%     19 - 1 8 - 0 +4.0 -2.6 +7.2
  Jan 21, 2023 252   @ Northeastern W 87-61 79%     20 - 1 9 - 0 +24.0 +6.5 +15.0
  Jan 28, 2023 107   Hofstra L 81-85 70%     20 - 2 9 - 1 -3.0 +6.9 -9.8
  Feb 02, 2023 202   @ Drexel W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 206   @ Delaware W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 08, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 11, 2023 342   @ Hampton W 86-70 93%    
  Feb 13, 2023 252   Northeastern W 80-66 91%    
  Feb 16, 2023 334   @ Elon W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 23, 2023 141   Towson W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 25, 2023 313   Stony Brook W 80-63 95%    
Projected Record 27 - 3 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.7 19.8 36.6 23.0 83.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.4 6.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.0 10.9 25.8 36.6 23.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 23.0    23.0
16-2 100.0% 36.6    28.1 8.5
15-3 76.6% 19.8    9.1 9.7 1.0
14-4 34.0% 3.7    0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1
13-5 5.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 83.3% 83.3 60.9 20.1 2.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 23.0% 66.5% 57.2% 9.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 9.5 4.2 0.2 7.7 21.9%
16-2 36.6% 53.9% 52.1% 1.7% 11.7 0.2 6.7 11.6 1.2 0.0 16.9 3.6%
15-3 25.8% 46.0% 45.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 1.8 0.1 13.9 0.9%
14-4 10.9% 41.2% 41.0% 0.1% 12.2 0.3 2.8 1.3 0.0 6.4 0.2%
13-5 3.0% 35.4% 35.4% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.0
12-6 0.6% 29.7% 29.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.7% 49.7% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 18.6 27.4 5.0 0.2 47.3 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.0% 66.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.1 41.4 18.4 0.7