Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#313
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#293
Pace61.8#328
Improvement+1.3#45

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#291
First Shot-0.2#188
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#358
Layup/Dunks-6.2#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#81
Freethrows+1.4#76
Improvement+1.0#43

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#307
First Shot-6.1#345
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#44
Layups/Dunks+3.3#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#361
Freethrows+1.6#69
Improvement+0.3#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.9% 21.3% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 1.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 48 - 69 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 40   @ Florida L 45-81 3%     0 - 1 -22.0 -17.0 -4.8
  Nov 15, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island L 64-74 19%     0 - 2 -8.7 -2.4 -6.9
  Nov 17, 2022 207   @ Brown L 53-64 19%     0 - 3 -10.1 -17.4 +7.5
  Nov 23, 2022 226   @ Florida International L 50-83 23%     0 - 4 -33.3 -24.0 -8.5
  Nov 25, 2022 161   Eastern Washington L 52-81 21%     0 - 5 -28.7 -17.0 -14.6
  Dec 03, 2022 92   Yale L 72-77 16%     0 - 6 -2.4 +7.2 -10.0
  Dec 09, 2022 195   @ Bryant L 60-79 18%     0 - 7 -17.6 -13.9 -4.0
  Dec 12, 2022 323   Sacred Heart W 71-64 64%     1 - 7 -4.9 -3.8 -0.7
  Dec 15, 2022 284   @ Wagner L 55-58 34%     1 - 8 -6.9 -5.2 -2.3
  Dec 18, 2022 237   Army W 66-59 44%     2 - 8 +0.4 -5.6 +6.7
  Dec 22, 2022 23   @ West Virginia L 64-75 2%     2 - 9 +5.3 +3.6 +0.7
  Dec 31, 2022 252   @ Northeastern W 65-61 28%     3 - 9 1 - 0 +2.0 -4.7 +6.8
  Jan 05, 2023 351   @ Monmouth W 67-56 57%     4 - 9 2 - 0 +1.0 -3.3 +5.0
  Jan 07, 2023 141   Towson L 55-67 25%     4 - 10 2 - 1 -13.1 -8.5 -6.9
  Jan 12, 2023 202   Drexel W 67-66 36%     5 - 10 3 - 1 -3.4 +6.6 -9.8
  Jan 14, 2023 277   @ N.C. A&T L 59-61 32%     5 - 11 3 - 2 -5.2 -11.0 +5.6
  Jan 19, 2023 252   Northeastern L 66-79 47%     5 - 12 3 - 3 -20.5 -1.9 -20.0
  Jan 21, 2023 152   UNC Wilmington L 51-62 28%     5 - 13 3 - 4 -13.0 -14.2 -0.3
  Jan 26, 2023 305   @ William & Mary L 74-77 38%     5 - 14 3 - 5 -8.1 +10.6 -19.2
  Jan 28, 2023 342   @ Hampton W 71-66 53%     6 - 14 4 - 5 -4.0 -5.2 +1.4
  Feb 02, 2023 334   Elon W 69-64 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 107   @ Hofstra L 61-76 8%    
  Feb 08, 2023 351   Monmouth W 68-61 76%    
  Feb 11, 2023 277   N.C. A&T W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 13, 2023 206   @ Delaware L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 16, 2023 305   William & Mary W 68-66 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 107   Hofstra L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 23, 2023 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 57-69 13%    
  Feb 25, 2023 83   @ College of Charleston L 63-80 5%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.5 1.1 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 9.8 4.2 0.1 16.0 7th
8th 0.6 9.2 9.7 0.7 0.0 20.2 8th
9th 0.2 6.3 13.9 3.0 0.0 23.4 9th
10th 0.1 4.3 12.3 5.0 0.2 22.0 10th
11th 0.5 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 1.1 7.4 20.3 30.0 25.3 11.9 3.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 11.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.9
8-10 25.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 25.3
7-11 30.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 30.0
6-12 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
5-13 7.4% 7.4
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%