Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
32 Loyola Chicago 61.2%   12   5 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 6 15 - 3 +11.9      +5.1 53 +6.8 30 62.9 323 +8.4 74 0.0 1
57 Drake 26.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +7.9      +4.3 65 +3.5 77 65.6 268 +2.1 151 0.0 1
89 Missouri St. 14.6%   4 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +5.8      +5.9 33 -0.1 175 70.2 157 -1.2 201 0.0 1
114 Northern Iowa 9.1%   1 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 8 +3.6      +3.3 87 +0.3 164 70.9 135 -3.3 225 0.0 1
159 Southern Illinois 2.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +0.6      -0.4 185 +0.9 141 60.5 343 -1.6 205 0.0 1
172 Indiana St. 2.3%   2 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -0.4      +0.1 168 -0.5 188 74.9 59 -1.1 193 0.0 1
200 Valparaiso 1.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -1.9      -2.1 239 +0.3 166 67.0 237 -4.4 237 0.0 1
215 Bradley 1.0%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -2.2      -2.5 257 +0.3 161 66.2 254 -16.6 346 0.0 1
242 Illinois St. 0.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4.1      -0.1 172 -4.1 293 72.8 91 -5.6 252 0.0 1
253 Evansville 0.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 13 -4.9      -2.9 267 -1.9 242 59.7 350 -11.4 317 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 1.6 65.4 21.7 8.2 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1
Drake 2.5 26.0 32.1 21.2 9.8 6.6 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.1
Missouri St. 3.2 14.6 24.3 24.0 16.9 9.1 5.2 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.4
Northern Iowa 4.3 6.8 14.1 20.0 19.1 14.5 10.3 6.2 4.9 2.7 1.4
Southern Illinois 5.6 1.9 5.2 11.0 16.0 17.3 15.3 13.5 10.1 5.9 3.9
Indiana St. 6.0 1.4 3.8 8.3 11.7 16.8 16.3 14.6 12.2 9.4 5.5
Valparaiso 6.6 0.8 2.3 6.2 9.6 12.5 14.9 16.0 14.9 13.4 9.4
Bradley 6.9 0.5 1.5 4.2 7.4 12.5 15.1 16.3 16.0 15.2 11.4
Illinois St. 7.6 0.0 0.8 1.8 4.9 9.1 11.6 13.6 17.6 20.1 20.4
Evansville 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 6.8 9.8 12.6 17.4 21.9 26.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 15 - 3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.7 3.1 6.5 11.7 16.1 18.4 20.3 15.1 6.0
Drake 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.2 5.2 7.5 11.6 12.4 16.2 16.1 13.0 8.7 3.6 1.2
Missouri St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.1 8.2 11.4 13.6 15.2 15.2 11.4 7.4 4.3 1.6 0.2
Northern Iowa 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 3.5 4.6 7.7 9.0 12.2 13.4 13.1 13.0 9.3 6.5 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
Southern Illinois 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.5 7.1 10.5 12.8 14.6 13.0 12.0 9.7 6.6 3.6 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Indiana St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.6 6.4 8.5 13.0 14.2 13.5 12.8 10.5 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
Valparaiso 7 - 11 0.2 0.7 2.6 5.9 8.5 12.0 14.4 14.9 12.4 10.2 7.7 5.1 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
Bradley 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 2.9 6.6 10.4 13.2 14.9 14.4 12.7 9.8 6.3 3.3 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Illinois St. 6 - 12 0.7 3.6 6.8 10.4 13.5 15.5 13.7 12.5 9.6 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Evansville 5 - 13 1.0 4.5 8.6 12.4 16.1 16.0 13.9 11.2 7.4 4.8 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 65.4% 52.3 11.6 1.5 0.1
Drake 26.0% 17.6 7.2 1.2 0.1
Missouri St. 14.6% 8.5 5.1 1.0 0.1
Northern Iowa 6.8% 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0
Southern Illinois 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0
Indiana St. 1.4% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bradley 0.5% 0.2 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 61.2% 47.7% 13.5% 12   0.5 0.7 1.3 2.7 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.3 5.0 6.7 12.9 13.2 4.4 0.9 0.2 38.8 25.8%
Drake 26.2% 22.9% 3.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.9 4.6 7.2 5.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 73.8 4.3%
Missouri St. 14.6% 13.3% 1.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 1.8 4.3 3.7 2.5 0.8 0.0 85.4 1.5%
Northern Iowa 9.1% 8.1% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 90.9 1.0%
Southern Illinois 2.9% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 97.1 0.1%
Indiana St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 97.7 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 98.8 0.0%
Bradley 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 99.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Loyola Chicago 61.2% 5.2% 58.9% 29.8% 12.2% 4.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Drake 26.2% 1.7% 25.5% 9.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 14.6% 0.7% 14.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 9.1% 0.7% 8.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.9% 0.3% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 81.3 18.4 0.4
1st Round 99.7% 1.2 0.3 84.4 15.1 0.2
2nd Round 43.7% 0.5 56.3 41.3 2.4
Sweet Sixteen 17.8% 0.2 82.2 17.4 0.4
Elite Eight 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8 0.0
Final Four 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2