Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
67 Belmont 38.1%   12   25 - 5 16 - 4 +8.6      +7.6 44 +1.1 141 71.6 98 +9.9 60 +9.6 1
90 Northern Iowa 17.2%   18 - 12 11 - 9 +6.4      -0.8 181 +7.2 30 59.2 364 +3.5 114 +2.7 7
99 Illinois St. 14.3%   19 - 11 12 - 8 +5.2      +1.7 124 +3.5 78 66.7 233 +4.2 107 +4.2 5
111 Bradley 11.0%   19 - 11 13 - 7 +3.4      +2.2 114 +1.2 136 67.7 203 +3.8 109 +5.7 2
114 Illinois-Chicago 8.2%   15 - 14 12 - 8 +3.3      -0.1 166 +3.4 82 66.4 240 +1.3 136 +4.4 4
120 Southern Illinois 4.0%   15 - 15 10 - 10 +2.9      -3.8 272 +6.7 32 71.7 96 +1.5 135 +1.8 8
125 Murray St. 6.6%   20 - 11 12 - 8 +2.6      +4.5 76 -1.9 230 76.7 19 +5.0 98 +4.5 3
151 Valparaiso 1.9%   16 - 14 11 - 9 +0.2      -0.5 175 +0.7 148 64.6 284 +1.7 132 +3.4 6
199 Indiana St. 0.5%   9 - 20 4 - 16 -2.2      -1.8 218 -0.4 184 70.7 118 -5.0 243 -6.4 10
206 Drake 0.3%   10 - 19 6 - 14 -2.4      0.0 163 -2.5 252 67.9 196 -3.3 223 -3.0 9
295 Evansville 0.0%   5 - 24 3 - 17 -7.9      -4.5 296 -3.4 274 67.1 219 -7.2 280 -7.4 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 295 Evansville 80 151 Valparaiso 79   
Sun, Mar 1 67 Belmont 74 99 Illinois St. 81   
Sun, Mar 1 111 Bradley 87 125 Murray St. 78   
Sun, Mar 1 295 Evansville 67 120 Southern Illinois 81   
Sun, Mar 1 199 Indiana St. 79 114 Illinois-Chicago 63   
Sun, Mar 1 206 Drake 53 90 Northern Iowa 75   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 6.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Bradley 2.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Murray St. 3.0 100.0
Valparaiso 6.0 100.0
Indiana St. 10.0 100.0
Drake 9.0 100.0
Evansville 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 5 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 18 - 12 100.0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 11 100.0
Bradley 13 - 7 19 - 11 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 15 - 14 100.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 15 - 15 100.0
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 11 100.0
Valparaiso 11 - 9 16 - 14 100.0
Indiana St. 4 - 16 9 - 20 100.0
Drake 6 - 14 10 - 19 100.0
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 24 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.
Bradley
Illinois-Chicago
Southern Illinois
Murray St.
Valparaiso
Indiana St.
Drake
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 38.1% 35.9% 2.2% 12   0.0 0.4 21.2 16.3 0.1 61.9 3.4%
Northern Iowa 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.9 13.7 2.7 0.0 82.8 0.0%
Illinois St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.7 11.1 2.5 0.0 85.7 0.0%
Bradley 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.1 5.4 5.3 0.2 89.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 5.6 1.2 0.0 91.8 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 2.7 0.1 96.0 0.0%
Murray St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.1 3.9 2.5 0.0 93.4 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 98.1 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Drake 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 98.9 0.9
2nd Round 12.7% 0.1 87.3 12.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 38.1% 2.1% 36.8% 7.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 17.2% 0.0% 17.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 11.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 6.6% 0.0% 6.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%