Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
75 Belmont 16.3%   25 - 6 16 - 4 +7.7      +7.3 44 +0.4 159 71.8 94 +8.9 68 +9.8 1
81 Northern Iowa 100.0%   12   22 - 12 11 - 9 +7.3      +0.5 151 +6.8 31 59.0 364 +4.9 102 +2.7 7
104 Illinois St. 0.0%   19 - 12 12 - 8 +4.7      +1.1 136 +3.6 79 66.7 229 +3.9 112 +4.3 5
107 Illinois-Chicago 0.0%   17 - 15 12 - 8 +4.0      +0.7 145 +3.4 82 66.5 234 +1.9 128 +4.4 4
111 Bradley 0.0%   20 - 12 13 - 7 +3.5      +2.1 117 +1.4 133 68.1 187 +3.8 113 +5.8 2
124 Southern Illinois 0.0%   15 - 16 10 - 10 +2.6      -4.2 280 +6.8 32 71.4 101 +0.9 143 +2.0 8
129 Murray St. 0.0%   20 - 12 12 - 8 +2.3      +4.3 80 -2.0 238 77.6 14 +4.5 107 +4.6 3
161 Valparaiso 0.0%   17 - 15 11 - 9 +0.2      -0.9 188 +1.1 136 64.3 295 +1.7 133 +3.5 6
188 Drake 0.0%   12 - 20 6 - 14 -1.6      +0.4 155 -2.0 236 67.5 206 -2.0 197 -2.9 9
195 Indiana St. 0.0%   9 - 21 4 - 16 -2.0      -1.9 220 -0.1 175 70.1 129 -5.1 247 -6.2 10
294 Evansville 0.0%   5 - 25 3 - 17 -7.6      -4.5 291 -3.1 267 67.2 215 -7.1 278 -7.3 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Mar 6 111 Bradley 90 161 Valparaiso 84   
Fri, Mar 6 81 Northern Iowa 74 104 Illinois St. 52   
Fri, Mar 6 75 Belmont 79 188 Drake 100   
Fri, Mar 6 129 Murray St. 80 107 Illinois-Chicago 94   
Sat, Mar 7 111 Bradley 69 81 Northern Iowa 73   
Sat, Mar 7 188 Drake 51 107 Illinois-Chicago 72   
Sun, Mar 8 107 Illinois-Chicago 69 81 Northern Iowa 84   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Bradley 2.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Murray St. 3.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 6.0 100.0
Valparaiso 6.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Drake 9.0 100.0
Indiana St. 10.0 100.0
Evansville 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 6 100.0
Bradley 13 - 7 20 - 12 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 17 - 15 100.0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 12 100.0
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 12 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 22 - 12 100.0
Valparaiso 11 - 9 17 - 15 100.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 15 - 16 100.0
Drake 6 - 14 12 - 20 100.0
Indiana St. 4 - 16 9 - 21 100.0
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 25 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Bradley
Illinois-Chicago
Illinois St.
Murray St.
Northern Iowa
Valparaiso
Southern Illinois
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 16.3% 0.0% 16.3% 0.2 12.5 3.6 0.0 83.7 16.3%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   3.0 73.7 23.0 0.3
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 83.7 16.3
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 93.6 6.4
2nd Round 15.3% 0.2 84.7 15.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 16.3% 16.1% 6.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 14.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%