Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
67 Belmont 38.0%   12   25 - 5 16 - 4 +8.7      +7.6 44 +1.1 141 71.6 98 +9.9 60 +9.7 1
90 Northern Iowa 17.4%   18 - 12 11 - 9 +6.4      -0.8 184 +7.2 30 59.2 364 +3.5 114 +2.8 7
98 Illinois St. 14.7%   19 - 11 12 - 8 +5.3      +1.7 125 +3.6 78 66.7 233 +4.2 107 +4.2 5
111 Bradley 10.8%   19 - 11 13 - 7 +3.4      +2.2 115 +1.3 136 67.7 202 +3.8 109 +5.7 2
114 Illinois-Chicago 7.9%   15 - 14 12 - 8 +3.3      -0.1 165 +3.4 82 66.4 240 +1.3 137 +4.4 4
120 Southern Illinois 4.3%   15 - 15 10 - 10 +2.9      -3.8 272 +6.7 32 71.7 95 +1.5 135 +1.9 8
125 Murray St. 6.7%   20 - 11 12 - 8 +2.6      +4.6 76 -1.9 228 76.7 19 +5.0 98 +4.5 3
153 Valparaiso 1.8%   16 - 14 11 - 9 +0.2      -0.5 175 +0.7 148 64.5 285 +1.7 132 +3.4 6
197 Indiana St. 0.5%   9 - 20 4 - 16 -2.2      -1.8 218 -0.3 184 70.7 117 -5.0 243 -6.4 10
203 Drake 0.3%   10 - 19 6 - 14 -2.4      +0.1 160 -2.5 251 67.9 194 -3.3 222 -2.9 9
296 Evansville 0.0%   5 - 24 3 - 17 -7.9      -4.5 294 -3.4 274 67.1 219 -7.2 281 -7.4 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 296 Evansville 80 153 Valparaiso 79   
Sun, Mar 1 67 Belmont 74 98 Illinois St. 81   
Sun, Mar 1 111 Bradley 87 125 Murray St. 78   
Sun, Mar 1 296 Evansville 67 120 Southern Illinois 81   
Sun, Mar 1 197 Indiana St. 79 114 Illinois-Chicago 63   
Sun, Mar 1 203 Drake 53 90 Northern Iowa 75   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 197 Indiana St. 71 153 Valparaiso 73 59%   
Thu, Mar 5 203 Drake 69 120 Southern Illinois 74 70%   
Thu, Mar 5 296 Evansville 57 90 Northern Iowa 71 90%   
Fri, Mar 6 125 Murray St. 78 114 Illinois-Chicago 79 53%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Bradley 2.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Murray St. 3.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 6.0 100.0
Valparaiso 6.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Drake 9.0 100.0
Indiana St. 10.0 100.0
Evansville 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 5 100.0
Bradley 13 - 7 19 - 11 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 16 - 14 100.0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 11 100.0
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 12 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 19 - 12 100.0
Valparaiso 11 - 9 17 - 14 100.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 16 - 15 100.0
Drake 6 - 14 10 - 20 100.0
Indiana St. 4 - 16 9 - 21 100.0
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 25 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Bradley
Illinois-Chicago
Illinois St.
Murray St.
Northern Iowa
Valparaiso
Southern Illinois
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 38.0% 35.6% 2.3% 12   0.0 0.4 21.5 15.9 0.1 62.0 3.6%
Northern Iowa 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 1.2 14.4 1.9 0.0 82.6 0.0%
Illinois St. 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.8 11.2 2.7 0.0 85.3 0.0%
Bradley 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.1 5.6 5.0 0.2 89.2 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 5.4 0.9 92.1 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 2.5 0.1 95.7 0.0%
Murray St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.1 4.6 2.0 0.0 93.3 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Drake 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 98.9 0.9
2nd Round 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 38.0% 2.3% 36.5% 7.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 17.4% 0.0% 17.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%