Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
84 Drake 28.5%   13   17 - 6 9 - 3 22 - 8 14 - 5 +6.1      +1.9 119 +4.2 67 65.9 252 +6.3 85 +5.4 1
89 Bradley 25.1%   15 - 8 8 - 4 20 - 10 13 - 6 +5.6      +1.2 138 +4.4 60 65.6 262 +4.5 108 +3.9 4
117 Indiana St. 10.1%   14 - 9 7 - 5 19 - 11 12 - 7 +2.7      +1.5 128 +1.2 133 76.2 27 +0.7 154 +1.5 8
128 Belmont 9.0%   15 - 8 9 - 4 19 - 11 13 - 7 +2.3      +3.0 93 -0.7 198 70.7 109 +3.7 116 +4.5 3
130 Southern Illinois 8.9%   16 - 7 8 - 4 20 - 10 12 - 7 +2.2      -2.0 240 +4.3 64 61.6 334 +5.1 94 +5.0 2
136 Missouri St. 8.0%   11 - 11 7 - 5 15 - 14 11 - 8 +1.8      +0.6 155 +1.2 132 59.6 355 +0.4 160 +2.1 7
159 Murray St. 4.7%   12 - 10 8 - 5 16 - 13 12 - 8 +0.4      +1.3 133 -1.0 207 67.0 214 +1.3 144 +2.7 6
160 Northern Iowa 4.6%   11 - 11 8 - 4 14 - 15 11 - 8 +0.3      -0.5 191 +0.8 145 68.2 178 -0.6 182 +3.0 5
234 Illinois St. 0.9%   10 - 14 5 - 8 13 - 18 8 - 12 -3.7      -2.5 254 -1.3 220 63.7 300 -4.7 257 -4.0 9
264 Illinois-Chicago 0.3%   8 - 15 1 - 11 11 - 19 4 - 15 -5.5      -4.2 302 -1.3 218 71.9 86 -5.8 271 -12.0 11
267 Valparaiso 0.3%   9 - 14 4 - 9 11 - 19 6 - 14 -5.6      -4.0 299 -1.5 229 68.7 169 -4.9 259 -6.0 10
341 Evansville 0.0%   4 - 20 0 - 12 5 - 26 1 - 18 -11.5      -8.1 352 -3.4 275 71.2 102 -10.2 330 -17.7 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 1.9 57.3 19.2 10.8 6.2 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Bradley 3.1 24.0 23.1 17.5 13.2 9.3 6.5 4.1 2.2 0.1
Indiana St. 4.7 4.7 11.0 14.2 16.8 16.2 15.0 12.5 8.8 0.8 0.0
Belmont 2.3 36.8 28.3 16.0 9.6 5.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Southern Illinois 3.7 13.6 17.8 17.8 16.9 13.3 10.0 6.7 3.7 0.1
Missouri St. 5.9 1.8 4.8 7.2 11.0 12.4 16.7 19.2 25.3 1.6 0.0
Murray St. 4.9 5.3 9.1 11.9 15.6 16.3 17.9 15.0 8.4 0.4 0.0
Northern Iowa 5.0 6.2 9.1 10.9 13.5 14.0 16.2 16.3 13.3 0.5
Illinois St. 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.4 8.7 73.2 14.3 0.3
Illinois-Chicago 10.8 0.0 2.1 20.2 72.8 4.9
Valparaiso 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 27.9 61.9 8.2 0.0
Evansville 11.9 0.0 0.3 11.9 87.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 14 - 6 0.0 0.5 3.4 11.4 24.1 31.1 22.4 6.9
Bradley 13 - 7 0.1 0.9 4.0 12.4 24.1 29.6 22.0 7.0
Indiana St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.8 4.4 14.1 26.3 30.3 18.9 5.1
Belmont 13 - 7 0.0 0.9 5.3 18.3 31.2 28.8 13.1 2.5
Southern Illinois 12 - 8 0.2 1.8 7.3 18.5 29.1 26.9 13.6 2.7
Missouri St. 11 - 9 0.4 3.6 13.1 25.4 29.3 19.8 7.1 1.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.3 3.9 16.7 29.6 28.4 15.8 4.7 0.6
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 1.1 7.1 18.9 27.7 25.4 14.3 4.8 0.7
Illinois St. 8 - 12 2.5 16.6 31.7 29.1 14.9 4.3 0.7 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 4 - 16 1.4 9.3 24.0 32.1 22.5 8.8 1.7 0.2
Valparaiso 6 - 14 9.5 26.0 31.5 21.1 9.2 2.3 0.4 0.0
Evansville 1 - 19 25.9 38.0 24.3 9.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 57.3% 33.5 15.2 6.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bradley 24.0% 8.3 9.0 4.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 4.7% 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Belmont 36.8% 15.8 12.8 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 13.6% 4.0 4.8 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 1.8% 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 5.3% 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 6.2% 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois St.
Illinois-Chicago
Valparaiso
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 28.5% 28.2% 0.4% 13   0.0 0.1 4.1 14.3 8.8 1.1 0.0 71.5 0.5%
Bradley 25.1% 25.0% 0.1% 0.0 2.0 10.4 10.3 2.3 0.1 74.9 0.2%
Indiana St. 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 2.3 0.1 89.9 0.0%
Belmont 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 91.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.2 2.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 91.1 0.0%
Missouri St. 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 1.6 92.0 0.0%
Murray St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 0.7 95.3 0.0%
Northern Iowa 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.9 95.4 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Drake 28.5% 0.3% 28.4% 6.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 25.1% 0.1% 25.0% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 10.1% 0.0% 10.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 8.0% 0.8% 7.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 4.7% 0.3% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 4.6% 1.1% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5
1st Round 98.6% 1.0 1.4 98.4 0.2
2nd Round 15.6% 0.2 84.5 15.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0