Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 Illinois St. 27.8%   11   11 - 3 4 - 0 22 - 8 15 - 5 +7.9      +3.6 87 +4.3 68 67.1 242 +8.1 78 +16.5 1
83 Belmont 20.8%   12 - 3 3 - 2 22 - 8 13 - 7 +7.1      +4.5 73 +2.6 95 74.5 51 +6.3 86 +0.6 7
90 Northern Iowa 18.3%   11 - 3 4 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +6.2      -2.1 227 +8.3 18 60.1 362 +7.5 81 +12.4 3
92 Murray St. 18.2%   13 - 3 5 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +6.0      +5.7 63 +0.3 151 77.3 27 +9.7 65 +14.7 2
121 Bradley 6.3%   9 - 6 3 - 2 17 - 13 11 - 9 +2.7      +0.8 140 +1.9 111 67.6 230 +2.2 134 +5.3 4
124 Southern Illinois 5.6%   7 - 8 2 - 3 15 - 15 10 - 10 +2.5      -0.4 179 +3.0 88 73.6 69 +1.6 143 +2.6 5
151 Drake 2.3%   6 - 7 2 - 2 13 - 16 9 - 11 +0.2      +0.9 138 -0.7 197 62.9 336 -2.2 201 +1.5 6
186 Indiana St. 1.0%   6 - 8 1 - 4 12 - 17 7 - 13 -1.8      -1.6 207 -0.3 175 72.6 83 -2.2 203 -2.7 8
205 Valparaiso 0.6%   6 - 8 1 - 3 12 - 18 7 - 13 -2.7      -3.4 270 +0.8 136 66.6 252 -3.8 226 -4.0 9
207 Illinois-Chicago 0.5%   3 - 10 0 - 4 9 - 20 6 - 14 -2.7      -1.7 209 -1.0 204 68.9 196 -9.4 310 -12.0 10
260 Evansville 0.1%   2 - 12 0 - 5 6 - 23 4 - 16 -5.7      -6.0 326 +0.2 156 69.3 187 -9.0 301 -12.6 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Jan 4 83 Belmont 67 124 Southern Illinois 68   
Sun, Jan 4 151 Drake 74 186 Indiana St. 72   
Sun, Jan 4 207 Illinois-Chicago 59 205 Valparaiso 66   
Sun, Jan 4 260 Evansville 48 90 Northern Iowa 62   
Sun, Jan 4 121 Bradley 66 92 Murray St. 86   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 7 83 Belmont 66 90 Northern Iowa 68 58%   
Wed, Jan 7 121 Bradley 73 151 Drake 67 70%   
Wed, Jan 7 124 Southern Illinois 75 207 Illinois-Chicago 73 59%   
Wed, Jan 7 74 Illinois St. 73 205 Valparaiso 65 76%   
Wed, Jan 7 260 Evansville 73 92 Murray St. 82 80%   
Sat, Jan 10 121 Bradley 62 90 Northern Iowa 63 52%   
Sat, Jan 10 83 Belmont 77 151 Drake 73 65%   
Sat, Jan 10 92 Murray St. 83 205 Valparaiso 71 86%   
Sat, Jan 10 260 Evansville 69 186 Indiana St. 75 75%   
Sat, Jan 10 74 Illinois St. 79 207 Illinois-Chicago 65 89%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Illinois St. 2.0 48.3 23.6 14.0 7.9 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Belmont 3.5 12.3 18.8 21.4 20.7 13.9 7.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Northern Iowa 2.8 26.2 24.6 19.8 13.3 8.7 4.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 2.4 31.6 27.3 20.1 11.8 5.8 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 4.8 3.7 7.7 12.6 17.9 21.6 18.3 10.8 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.1
Southern Illinois 5.4 1.4 4.7 9.8 15.3 21.0 21.4 13.9 7.7 3.4 1.2 0.2
Drake 6.5 0.6 2.0 4.5 7.8 13.7 18.4 23.1 16.0 8.9 4.2 0.9
Indiana St. 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.8 9.4 18.1 24.0 20.2 14.9 5.8
Valparaiso 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.3 14.4 21.5 23.7 18.6 8.6
Illinois-Chicago 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.9 9.9 16.4 23.3 26.0 16.3
Evansville 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.8 7.1 14.0 24.7 50.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.0 6.2 10.5 14.6 17.7 17.5 14.2 9.3 4.0 0.8
Belmont 13 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.1 7.7 12.3 16.4 18.2 17.0 12.4 6.4 2.4 0.5
Northern Iowa 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.2 7.6 11.7 15.1 17.5 15.8 12.3 7.5 3.9 1.2 0.2
Murray St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.1 9.9 15.0 18.0 17.8 15.0 9.5 4.6 1.3 0.2
Bradley 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.4 7.2 11.4 15.3 17.4 15.9 13.2 8.0 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.7 9.8 13.6 16.7 17.1 14.7 10.3 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
Drake 9 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 8.2 12.1 15.5 16.7 15.1 11.7 7.6 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.6 12.9 16.0 17.6 16.3 11.6 7.4 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.4 2.0 5.4 10.5 14.5 17.8 16.6 13.6 9.7 5.4 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 6 - 14 0.3 1.7 4.9 9.4 14.6 17.0 17.2 14.0 9.7 6.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Evansville 4 - 16 2.3 7.9 15.3 19.6 19.3 15.8 9.9 5.7 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Illinois St. 48.3% 34.9 10.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Belmont 12.3% 6.0 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 26.2% 16.3 7.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 31.6% 20.4 8.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bradley 3.7% 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 1.4% 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Drake 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Illinois St. 27.8% 27.2% 0.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 11.2 13.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.2 0.8%
Belmont 20.8% 20.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.9 11.7 1.5 0.1 79.2 0.4%
Northern Iowa 18.3% 18.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.3 10.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 81.7 0.2%
Murray St. 18.2% 17.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.3 10.2 1.3 0.1 81.8 0.4%
Bradley 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.4 2.9 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 93.7 0.0%
Southern Illinois 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 94.4 0.0%
Drake 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 97.7 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.1 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois St. 27.8% 0.5% 27.5% 6.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 20.8% 0.3% 20.6% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 18.3% 0.2% 18.2% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 18.2% 0.3% 18.1% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 5.6% 0.1% 5.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 2.3% 0.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.9 0.8
2nd Round 18.5% 0.2 81.5 18.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0