Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 Belmont 29.3%   11   11 - 1 2 - 0 24 - 6 15 - 5 +8.0      +5.1 66 +2.9 91 75.2 46 +11.3 51 +11.5 5
85 Illinois St. 21.5%   9 - 3 2 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +6.8      +4.4 73 +2.4 103 66.4 267 +7.0 86 +17.0 1
96 Northern Iowa 16.1%   8 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5.6      -1.8 215 +7.4 23 61.1 357 +6.9 87 +15.7 2
99 Murray St. 14.9%   10 - 3 2 - 0 21 - 10 13 - 7 +5.3      +5.6 60 -0.3 174 77.3 27 +8.0 75 +14.0 4
108 Bradley 9.8%   8 - 4 2 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3.9      +0.8 144 +3.1 82 67.8 225 +2.9 130 +15.0 3
128 Southern Illinois 4.5%   5 - 7 0 - 2 14 - 16 9 - 11 +1.9      0.0 167 +1.9 109 73.2 81 -0.6 177 -10.0 8
142 Drake 4.3%   5 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 10 +1.2      +1.4 130 -0.2 172 63.7 327 -2.5 205 +3.0 6
200 Indiana St. 0.8%   5 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 18 6 - 14 -2.5      -2.8 244 +0.3 148 75.0 48 -2.9 211 -11.4 9
201 Illinois-Chicago 0.8%   3 - 8 0 - 2 10 - 19 7 - 13 -2.5      -0.9 187 -1.6 221 69.3 189 -8.7 302 -9.8 7
216 Valparaiso 0.5%   5 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 19 6 - 14 -3.7      -3.2 256 -0.5 177 67.3 243 -4.9 243 -12.9 10
256 Evansville 0.1%   2 - 9 0 - 2 7 - 22 5 - 15 -5.3      -4.8 297 -0.5 180 68.3 217 -8.2 294 -14.6 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 18 85 Illinois St. 75 128 Southern Illinois 68   
Thu, Dec 18 142 Drake 72 99 Murray St. 81   
Thu, Dec 18 108 Bradley 108 200 Indiana St. 99   
Fri, Dec 19 69 Belmont 84 143 UC Irvine 58   
Sun, Dec 21 108 Bradley 73 128 Southern Illinois 69   
Sun, Dec 21 185 Charlotte 88 201 Illinois-Chicago 76   
Sun, Dec 21 85 Illinois St. 85 200 Indiana St. 65   
Sun, Dec 21 99 Murray St. 85 216 Valparaiso 79   
Sun, Dec 21 142 Drake 66 256 Evansville 65   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 22 43 St. Mary's 67 96 Northern Iowa 58 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 2.4 39.8 23.8 15.3 10.1 6.0 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 2.7 31.3 23.4 17.5 12.4 8.3 4.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 3.4 19.5 19.3 17.6 15.8 12.0 8.3 4.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
Murray St. 3.3 18.4 19.7 19.3 16.5 12.7 7.7 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bradley 4.0 11.6 15.1 16.8 17.7 16.6 11.3 6.5 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
Southern Illinois 6.2 1.4 3.3 6.2 10.0 14.5 18.7 19.2 12.9 7.8 4.2 1.8
Drake 5.9 2.0 4.5 7.2 11.3 15.3 19.4 17.8 11.7 6.7 3.2 1.0
Indiana St. 8.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.3 8.3 13.6 19.6 20.2 18.0 12.6
Illinois-Chicago 8.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.3 8.6 14.3 19.4 20.3 17.4 12.1
Valparaiso 8.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 6.2 11.2 17.0 20.6 21.9 17.8
Evansville 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.8 11.2 18.0 25.6 35.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.1 8.2 11.9 15.2 16.6 15.3 11.8 7.3 3.0 0.6
Illinois St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 7.0 10.2 13.4 15.9 15.3 13.6 9.5 5.2 1.9 0.4
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 7.6 10.3 13.1 14.5 14.2 12.6 9.1 5.6 2.6 0.9 0.1
Murray St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.6 14.0 15.2 15.7 12.9 8.8 5.1 2.3 0.7 0.1
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.1 6.7 10.2 13.4 15.2 15.0 12.9 9.1 5.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.8 7.0 10.3 12.9 14.8 14.3 12.8 9.5 6.0 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Drake 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 6.0 8.9 12.2 14.6 14.8 13.2 10.5 7.3 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.8 10.8 14.0 15.5 15.1 12.2 9.2 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.1 1.1 3.1 6.5 10.6 13.6 15.1 15.2 12.5 9.5 6.2 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 0.4 1.8 5.1 9.3 13.3 15.6 15.1 14.0 10.3 6.8 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.2 5.0 10.6 15.2 17.7 16.7 13.3 9.1 5.5 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 39.8% 27.9 9.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 31.3% 21.1 8.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 19.5% 12.0 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
Murray St. 18.4% 10.8 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bradley 11.6% 6.5 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Drake 2.0% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 29.3% 27.6% 1.7% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 12.7 12.6 1.4 0.1 70.7 2.4%
Illinois St. 21.5% 21.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 6.6 11.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 78.5 0.5%
Northern Iowa 16.1% 15.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.6 8.6 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 83.9 0.4%
Murray St. 14.9% 14.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7 8.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 85.1 0.2%
Bradley 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 90.2 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 95.5 0.0%
Drake 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 95.7 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 29.3% 1.5% 28.6% 7.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 21.5% 0.3% 21.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 16.1% 0.3% 16.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 14.9% 0.2% 14.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.8% 0.1% 9.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.5% 0.2% 4.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 4.3% 0.2% 4.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7 0.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 98.1 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 19.4% 0.2 80.6 19.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0