Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
68 Belmont 35.5%   12   23 - 4 14 - 3 +8.2      +7.0 49 +1.2 135 72.1 84 +10.5 56 +10.6 1
90 Northern Iowa 18.7%   17 - 10 10 - 7 +6.2      -0.9 188 +7.0 30 59.3 364 +4.3 100 +3.8 5
99 Illinois St. 13.3%   17 - 10 10 - 7 +5.2      +1.1 139 +4.0 68 67.2 224 +3.2 114 +2.6 7
106 Illinois-Chicago 12.6%   14 - 12 11 - 6 +4.1      +0.1 159 +3.9 70 66.8 232 +1.9 135 +6.0 2
120 Bradley 8.5%   17 - 10 11 - 6 +2.8      +1.6 126 +1.2 136 68.4 186 +3.4 107 +5.3 3
124 Murray St. 7.7%   19 - 10 11 - 7 +2.7      +4.3 76 -1.7 227 76.8 20 +5.2 95 +4.8 4
128 Southern Illinois 3.2%   12 - 15 7 - 10 +2.2      -3.8 272 +6.0 40 72.3 76 +0.2 153 -0.1 8
161 Valparaiso 2.3%   14 - 13 9 - 8 -0.2      -1.1 196 +0.9 143 64.6 291 +1.3 141 +3.3 6
193 Drake 0.5%   10 - 17 6 - 12 -2.0      +0.4 152 -2.4 248 67.7 204 -3.1 217 -2.4 9
211 Indiana St. 0.4%   8 - 18 3 - 14 -2.9      -1.4 211 -1.5 220 70.5 126 -5.9 260 -8.0 10
298 Evansville 0.0%   4 - 21 2 - 14 -7.8      -5.5 311 -2.4 249 67.3 221 -8.2 296 -8.8 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 18 193 Drake 61 128 Southern Illinois 66   
Wed, Feb 18 120 Bradley 72 161 Valparaiso 79   
Wed, Feb 18 211 Indiana St. 60 90 Northern Iowa 81   
Wed, Feb 18 99 Illinois St. 78 124 Murray St. 61   
Wed, Feb 18 298 Evansville 46 106 Illinois-Chicago 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 21 120 Bradley 73 99 Illinois St. 72 53%   
Sat, Feb 21 128 Southern Illinois 59 90 Northern Iowa 66 75%   
Sat, Feb 21 106 Illinois-Chicago 72 161 Valparaiso 65 76%   
Sat, Feb 21 68 Belmont 87 211 Indiana St. 73 90%   
Sat, Feb 21 298 Evansville 72 124 Murray St. 86 89%   
Tue, Feb 24 120 Bradley 69 106 Illinois-Chicago 74 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 3.7 19.5 29.5 25.8 12.4 10.2 2.6
Illinois St. 4.9 6.9 14.1 18.1 14.7 33.3 13.0
Illinois-Chicago 2.5 0.1 71.1 15.9 8.9 2.2 1.5 0.4
Bradley 3.2 0.0 40.5 22.3 19.7 10.7 6.1 0.7
Murray St. 3.4 23.7 28.9 31.9 13.4 2.0 0.2
Southern Illinois 7.8 2.1 11.8 85.6 0.6
Valparaiso 6.1 0.5 4.4 6.3 10.5 34.0 43.0 1.3
Drake 8.9 5.7 94.3
Indiana St. 10.1 0.5 91.7 7.8
Evansville 10.7 0.0 32.6 67.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 5 0.2 6.5 48.6 44.7
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 19 - 11 3.3 19.9 42.9 34.0
Illinois St. 11 - 9 18 - 12 18.2 40.4 32.2 9.2
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 16 - 13 3.6 20.8 42.9 32.7
Bradley 12 - 8 18 - 12 12.8 37.5 37.5 12.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 11 6.7 59.0 34.4
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 14 - 16 5.0 28.9 50.7 15.4
Valparaiso 11 - 9 16 - 14 8.8 35.0 44.0 12.2
Drake 7 - 13 11 - 18 47.0 42.4 10.5
Indiana St. 4 - 16 9 - 20 45.9 41.8 11.3 0.9
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 24 43.6 40.7 14.1 1.5 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 99.9 0.1
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.
Illinois-Chicago 0.1% 0.1
Bradley 0.0% 0.0
Murray St.
Southern Illinois
Valparaiso
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 35.5% 32.8% 2.7% 12   0.0 0.0 0.6 20.9 13.8 0.1 64.5 4.1%
Northern Iowa 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 1.8 13.5 3.3 0.1 81.3 0.0%
Illinois St. 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.9 8.9 3.4 0.1 86.7 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.4 6.8 4.7 0.7 0.0 87.5 0.0%
Bradley 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 91.5 0.0%
Murray St. 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.3 5.4 2.0 0.1 92.3 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 96.8 0.0%
Valparaiso 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 97.7 0.0%
Drake 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 98.8 1.0
2nd Round 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 35.5% 2.7% 33.8% 6.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 18.7% 0.0% 18.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 13.3% 0.0% 13.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 12.6% 0.0% 12.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 8.5% 0.0% 8.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%