Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
62 Belmont 42.0%   12   25 - 4 16 - 3 +8.9      +7.3 48 +1.6 126 72.1 88 +10.8 55 +10.8 1
95 Northern Iowa 13.4%   17 - 12 10 - 9 +5.9      -0.8 188 +6.7 34 59.2 364 +3.3 112 +2.2 7
99 Illinois St. 12.4%   18 - 11 11 - 8 +5.0      +1.2 134 +3.7 72 67.0 224 +3.7 109 +3.4 6
106 Illinois-Chicago 11.5%   15 - 13 12 - 7 +4.0      +0.4 158 +3.6 75 66.4 242 +1.8 135 +5.3 3
114 Bradley 8.9%   18 - 11 12 - 7 +3.2      +1.9 120 +1.4 134 68.0 195 +3.6 110 +5.4 2
122 Murray St. 8.3%   20 - 10 12 - 7 +2.8      +4.4 74 -1.6 223 76.9 18 +5.4 93 +5.0 4
124 Southern Illinois 3.9%   14 - 15 9 - 10 +2.8      -4.1 276 +6.9 31 72.0 90 +1.3 141 +1.6 8
151 Valparaiso 3.5%   16 - 13 11 - 8 +0.5      -0.6 174 +1.0 143 64.3 295 +2.5 121 +4.5 5
190 Drake 0.4%   10 - 18 6 - 13 -1.9      +0.6 152 -2.4 246 67.7 205 -3.1 217 -2.6 9
213 Indiana St. 0.3%   8 - 20 3 - 16 -2.9      -2.1 227 -0.9 196 70.7 120 -5.9 256 -8.1 10
299 Evansville 0.0%   4 - 23 2 - 16 -8.1      -5.4 311 -2.7 256 67.2 220 -8.2 298 -8.9 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 24 114 Bradley 86 106 Illinois-Chicago 93   
Wed, Feb 25 99 Illinois St. 71 95 Northern Iowa 69   
Wed, Feb 25 190 Drake 71 151 Valparaiso 74   
Wed, Feb 25 213 Indiana St. 55 124 Southern Illinois 66   
Wed, Feb 25 62 Belmont 98 299 Evansville 64   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 28 299 Evansville 66 151 Valparaiso 72 70%   
Sun, Mar 1 62 Belmont 77 99 Illinois St. 76 54%   
Sun, Mar 1 114 Bradley 83 122 Murray St. 80 63%   
Sun, Mar 1 190 Drake 64 95 Northern Iowa 69 68%   
Sun, Mar 1 213 Indiana St. 70 106 Illinois-Chicago 74 65%   
Sun, Mar 1 299 Evansville 65 124 Southern Illinois 72 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 6.5 10.3 34.1 55.6
Illinois St. 4.7 16.7 30.6 15.4 37.4
Illinois-Chicago 2.4 64.9 35.1
Bradley 2.6 62.3 13.2 24.5
Murray St. 3.0 37.7 21.9 40.4
Southern Illinois 7.7 25.3 74.7
Valparaiso 4.2 25.2 45.6 15.4 13.8
Drake 9.0 100.0
Indiana St. 10.0 95.5 4.5
Evansville 10.7 31.7 68.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 17 - 3 26 - 4 47.2 52.8
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 18 - 12 33.1 66.9
Illinois St. 11 - 9 18 - 12 52.8 47.2
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 16 - 13 35.1 64.9
Bradley 13 - 7 19 - 11 37.7 62.3
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 11 62.3 37.7
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 15 - 15 22.6 77.4
Valparaiso 12 - 8 17 - 13 29.2 70.8
Drake 6 - 14 10 - 19 66.9 33.1
Indiana St. 3 - 17 8 - 21 64.9 35.1
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 24 55.2 37.8 7.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.
Illinois-Chicago
Bradley
Murray St.
Southern Illinois
Valparaiso
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 42.0% 37.4% 4.7% 12   0.0 0.1 1.7 27.6 12.7 0.0 58.0 7.4%
Northern Iowa 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.7 9.8 2.8 0.0 86.6 0.0%
Illinois St. 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.5 8.7 3.2 0.1 87.6 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.2 5.3 5.4 0.6 0.0 88.5 0.0%
Bradley 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.1 4.4 4.1 0.4 91.1 0.0%
Murray St. 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.2 5.2 2.8 0.1 91.7 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 96.1 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.0 96.5 0.0%
Drake 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.4 4.7
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 97.9 2.0
2nd Round 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 42.0% 4.4% 39.3% 8.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 13.4% 0.0% 13.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 12.4% 0.0% 12.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%