Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
106 Northern Iowa 17.1%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +3.7      +1.8 110 +1.9 111 63.6 310 0.0 161 0.0 1
108 Belmont 14.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +3.3      +2.5 95 +0.8 132 75.2 41 +2.4 129 0.0 1
109 Bradley 14.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +3.3      +1.1 126 +2.2 104 65.1 282 -10.1 332 0.0 1
111 Illinois St. 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +3.1      +3.7 80 -0.6 179 64.9 289 0.0 161 0.0 1
122 Murray St. 11.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +2.1      +1.0 130 +1.1 122 71.4 106 +10.8 19 0.0 1
136 Drake 8.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 10 +1.0      0.0 155 +1.0 127 58.2 361 +7.6 41 0.0 1
139 Illinois-Chicago 7.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.7      -0.1 163 +0.9 130 72.0 89 +2.1 130 0.0 1
140 Southern Illinois 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +0.7      -0.2 165 +0.9 129 69.3 163 0.0 161 0.0 1
216 Indiana St. 2.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -3.3      +0.3 149 -3.6 306 78.9 13 -11.2 338 0.0 1
239 Evansville 1.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -4.3      -3.8 290 -0.5 175 66.9 238 +11.3 18 0.0 1
285 Valparaiso 0.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -6.3      -3.9 294 -2.5 262 69.3 162 +1.7 134 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Northern Iowa 4.0 21.3 16.4 13.1 11.3 9.4 8.3 6.9 5.2 4.2 2.5 1.3
Belmont 4.2 19.0 15.5 13.5 11.9 10.3 9.0 7.0 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.3
Bradley 4.2 19.0 15.7 13.6 11.5 10.3 8.9 7.2 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.1
Illinois St. 4.3 18.7 14.8 13.3 11.2 10.3 8.8 7.6 6.2 4.5 3.2 1.5
Murray St. 4.8 13.1 12.8 12.6 11.7 11.2 10.0 9.0 7.9 5.9 3.8 2.1
Drake 5.4 9.2 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.0 10.8 10.5 9.2 7.7 6.0 3.5
Illinois-Chicago 5.5 8.6 9.7 10.1 10.9 10.8 11.3 11.1 9.6 8.1 6.3 3.6
Southern Illinois 5.5 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.9 10.4 9.7 8.5 6.4 3.9
Indiana St. 7.6 2.0 3.1 4.3 5.5 7.3 8.9 10.4 13.0 15.1 16.1 14.2
Evansville 8.1 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.9 7.5 9.7 12.6 15.8 18.8 18.3
Valparaiso 9.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.5 5.0 7.1 10.4 14.7 21.6 32.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.0 8.5 9.3 10.5 10.9 10.6 9.2 7.6 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.5
Belmont 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.9 7.2 9.1 10.3 11.2 10.7 10.2 8.7 7.0 5.2 2.8 1.2 0.3
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.2 5.9 7.4 9.1 10.1 10.8 11.0 10.3 8.8 6.9 4.9 2.8 1.2 0.4
Illinois St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.7 6.0 7.7 8.9 10.0 10.6 10.6 9.8 8.8 6.7 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.4
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.9 7.6 8.8 10.2 10.5 10.9 10.1 8.9 7.1 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2
Drake 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.4 8.8 10.0 10.7 10.5 9.9 8.9 7.3 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.1 6.1 7.4 9.1 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.8 8.4 6.7 4.9 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.2 6.1 7.8 8.9 10.1 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.3 6.7 5.1 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Indiana St. 7 - 13 0.4 1.7 3.8 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.1 11.4 10.6 9.6 8.1 6.2 4.9 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Evansville 7 - 13 0.8 2.8 4.8 7.7 9.6 11.2 12.0 11.5 10.0 8.5 6.9 5.1 3.6 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 1.9 5.4 8.8 11.7 13.0 12.6 11.9 9.9 8.0 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Iowa 21.3% 15.0 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Belmont 19.0% 13.0 4.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bradley 19.0% 13.0 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 18.7% 12.9 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 13.1% 8.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drake 9.2% 5.7 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 8.6% 5.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 9.4% 6.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 2.0% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Evansville 1.2% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Iowa 17.1% 16.5% 0.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 3.4 7.0 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 82.9 0.7%
Belmont 14.9% 14.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.8 6.0 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 85.1 0.4%
Bradley 14.5% 14.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 5.4 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 85.5 0.2%
Illinois St. 15.2% 14.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.8 6.1 3.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 84.9 0.5%
Murray St. 11.4% 11.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 4.7 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 88.6 0.4%
Drake 8.4% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 91.6 0.2%
Illinois-Chicago 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 92.3 0.1%
Southern Illinois 8.4% 8.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 91.6 0.2%
Indiana St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 97.6 0.0%
Evansville 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 98.3 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Iowa 17.1% 0.5% 16.9% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 14.9% 0.3% 14.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 14.5% 0.2% 14.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 15.2% 0.4% 15.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 11.4% 0.3% 11.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 8.4% 0.3% 8.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.7% 0.2% 7.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 8.4% 0.3% 8.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 97.9 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 17.4% 0.2 82.6 17.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0