Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 Belmont 34.5%   12   20 - 3 11 - 2 +7.9      +6.8 49 +1.0 135 72.7 78 +10.2 59 +10.1 1
89 Illinois St. 20.5%   14 - 8 7 - 5 +6.0      +1.1 136 +5.0 55 66.4 244 +3.8 104 +3.1 5
105 Murray St. 13.9%   17 - 7 9 - 4 +4.3      +5.3 66 -1.0 211 78.3 14 +5.9 86 +5.7 2
110 Northern Iowa 8.6%   13 - 9 6 - 6 +3.6      -3.0 249 +6.6 36 59.0 364 +2.8 114 +0.9 8
120 Bradley 9.0%   15 - 8 9 - 4 +2.6      +1.9 118 +0.7 140 68.6 181 +3.2 109 +5.4 4
129 Southern Illinois 4.1%   9 - 13 4 - 8 +1.9      -3.3 256 +5.2 51 72.0 89 -0.2 168 -0.8 9
134 Illinois-Chicago 6.0%   11 - 11 8 - 5 +1.5      -0.5 176 +2.0 112 67.1 228 +0.6 147 +5.5 3
159 Valparaiso 2.1%   10 - 12 5 - 7 -0.2      -1.9 222 +1.7 122 65.2 275 -0.3 169 +1.7 6
164 Drake 1.8%   10 - 12 6 - 7 -0.4      +0.6 148 -1.1 214 66.7 236 -1.0 187 +1.1 7
192 Indiana St. 0.8%   8 - 14 3 - 10 -1.9      -1.3 205 -0.6 190 71.8 95 -4.4 234 -5.8 10
288 Evansville 0.1%   3 - 18 1 - 11 -7.1      -5.5 316 -1.5 231 67.8 210 -9.2 314 -11.3 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 3 89 Illinois St. 50 129 Southern Illinois 54   
Tue, Feb 3 120 Bradley 72 159 Valparaiso 65   
Tue, Feb 3 105 Murray St. 81 134 Illinois-Chicago 74   
Tue, Feb 3 74 Belmont 103 164 Drake 90   
Tue, Feb 3 288 Evansville 63 192 Indiana St. 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 6 120 Bradley 63 110 Northern Iowa 67 65%   
Fri, Feb 6 105 Murray St. 79 129 Southern Illinois 80 53%   
Fri, Feb 6 74 Belmont 79 134 Illinois-Chicago 75 63%   
Fri, Feb 6 164 Drake 66 89 Illinois St. 75 81%   
Fri, Feb 6 288 Evansville 63 159 Valparaiso 73 82%   
Mon, Feb 9 105 Murray St. 73 110 Northern Iowa 69 64%   
Mon, Feb 9 74 Belmont 81 120 Bradley 79 59%   
Mon, Feb 9 164 Drake 72 159 Valparaiso 69 61%   
Mon, Feb 9 192 Indiana St. 72 129 Southern Illinois 73 53%   
Mon, Feb 9 288 Evansville 63 89 Illinois St. 74 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.1 93.1 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 3.4 5.2 29.0 23.8 18.5 12.7 6.7 2.8 1.0 0.2
Murray St. 2.7 10.4 41.9 24.1 14.1 6.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 5.6 0.3 4.7 9.3 13.5 19.5 21.7 15.5 10.2 5.1 0.2
Bradley 3.5 5.3 26.1 22.7 20.0 14.4 7.6 3.0 0.9 0.1
Southern Illinois 7.4 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.0 14.2 21.2 25.9 21.7 4.0 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 3.9 2.8 18.3 22.2 22.0 18.6 9.9 4.4 1.5 0.4
Valparaiso 6.9 0.8 2.7 6.0 10.9 17.4 22.8 21.8 16.1 1.6 0.1
Drake 7.1 0.4 1.8 4.4 9.7 16.6 21.0 21.7 23.7 0.7
Indiana St. 9.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.1 12.3 79.6 2.6
Evansville 10.9 0.1 0.4 8.4 91.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 5 0.1 0.3 3.0 11.6 25.0 31.3 22.3 6.5
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 11 0.0 0.4 2.4 9.0 18.0 26.4 24.8 15.0 4.0
Murray St. 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.3 2.6 11.6 23.3 28.9 21.7 9.8 1.8
Northern Iowa 10 - 10 17 - 13 0.2 2.3 8.7 17.9 25.6 24.2 15.2 5.1 0.8
Bradley 12 - 8 18 - 12 2.3 10.6 20.9 26.4 22.5 12.6 4.2 0.6
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.2 1.0 4.7 13.1 22.7 26.6 20.4 9.3 2.0
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 15 - 14 0.8 4.9 13.4 24.3 26.4 20.1 8.4 1.7
Valparaiso 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.4 2.7 9.0 19.6 26.2 23.9 13.3 4.3 0.6
Drake 9 - 11 13 - 16 2.5 11.3 23.8 27.5 22.1 9.6 2.9 0.3
Indiana St. 5 - 15 10 - 19 6.0 19.1 28.6 25.2 14.4 5.6 1.1 0.1
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 24 19.4 33.9 26.1 14.3 4.9 1.1 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 93.1% 79.9 10.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
Illinois St. 5.2% 1.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Murray St. 10.4% 3.2 5.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
Northern Iowa 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Bradley 5.3% 1.2 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
Southern Illinois
Illinois-Chicago 2.8% 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 34.5% 33.1% 1.4% 12   0.1 0.2 1.0 18.1 14.9 0.4 65.5 2.2%
Illinois St. 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.1 14.1 2.1 0.1 79.5 0.0%
Murray St. 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 9.8 2.2 0.1 86.1 0.0%
Northern Iowa 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.4 4.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 91.4 0.0%
Bradley 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 3.9 4.1 0.9 0.1 91.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 95.9 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 94.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 97.9 0.0%
Drake 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.1 0.6
2nd Round 13.4% 0.1 86.7 13.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 34.5% 1.4% 33.7% 6.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 20.5% 0.0% 20.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%