Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Bradley 16.3%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 8 +4.2      +1.6 119 +2.6 102 65.1 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
109 Illinois St. 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +4.0      +4.0 73 0.0 164 64.9 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
110 Northern Iowa 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +3.8      +1.6 121 +2.3 106 63.6 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Belmont 14.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +3.6      +3.1 93 +0.5 146 75.2 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Drake 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +3.5      +0.2 156 +3.2 86 53.2 365 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Murray St. 9.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 +2.0      +0.7 142 +1.3 125 63.1 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Southern Illinois 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +1.1      +0.3 155 +0.9 136 69.3 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Illinois-Chicago 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 +0.1      -0.1 163 +0.2 155 72.0 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 Indiana St. 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -1.0      +1.4 125 -2.4 255 78.9 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 Evansville 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 14 -4.5      -4.3 293 -0.2 170 66.9 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Valparaiso 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -5.3      -2.3 240 -3.0 277 69.3 138 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Bradley 4.1 20.5 15.7 13.4 11.3 10.2 8.4 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.6 1.2
Illinois St. 4.2 19.2 15.3 13.3 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.1 6.1 4.3 3.0 1.5
Northern Iowa 4.3 18.2 15.2 12.9 11.6 10.0 9.1 7.3 6.4 4.7 3.0 1.6
Belmont 4.4 17.2 14.4 12.7 11.9 10.6 9.2 8.1 6.0 4.9 3.3 1.7
Drake 4.5 16.3 14.0 12.6 11.7 10.6 9.5 8.0 6.8 5.3 3.5 1.8
Murray St. 5.2 10.8 11.2 11.0 11.2 10.9 10.5 9.8 8.7 7.5 5.4 3.0
Southern Illinois 5.7 8.3 9.3 10.0 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 9.7 9.2 6.8 4.4
Illinois-Chicago 6.2 6.2 7.3 8.3 9.3 9.9 10.8 10.8 11.1 10.8 9.1 6.3
Indiana St. 6.8 4.1 5.3 6.4 7.8 9.0 10.5 11.1 12.5 12.7 11.8 8.9
Evansville 8.5 1.1 1.9 2.4 3.4 4.8 6.8 8.6 11.9 15.3 20.1 23.7
Valparaiso 8.8 0.8 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.0 5.7 7.9 10.4 15.0 21.1 28.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.1 5.6 6.9 9.0 9.6 10.4 11.2 10.2 9.1 7.4 5.3 3.3 1.5 0.5
Illinois St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.2 8.8 10.0 10.6 10.6 10.3 8.7 6.9 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.4
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.8 6.2 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.6 10.5 10.3 8.4 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.2 0.4
Belmont 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.4 10.6 10.5 9.5 8.1 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.1 0.3
Drake 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.1 6.5 8.1 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.3 9.2 7.7 6.3 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.3
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.3 10.4 10.7 9.8 8.8 7.7 5.9 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.0 7.8 9.4 10.1 10.4 10.1 9.3 8.0 6.5 4.8 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 9 - 11 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.7 4.2 6.1 7.6 9.3 10.0 10.1 10.1 9.3 8.4 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Indiana St. 9 - 11 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.8 6.1 7.7 9.1 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.4 8.2 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 6 - 14 1.5 3.9 6.6 9.3 10.8 11.6 11.8 10.7 9.3 7.6 5.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 1.9 5.0 8.1 10.6 12.2 12.2 11.6 10.1 8.2 6.4 5.0 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Bradley 20.5% 14.1 5.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Illinois St. 19.2% 12.9 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 18.2% 12.4 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Belmont 17.2% 11.5 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Drake 16.3% 10.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
Murray St. 10.8% 7.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 8.3% 5.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 6.2% 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 4.1% 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Evansville 1.1% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Bradley 16.3% 15.7% 0.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 5.0 5.7 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 83.7 0.7%
Illinois St. 15.1% 14.6% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 4.9 5.4 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 84.9 0.7%
Northern Iowa 14.8% 14.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 4.5 5.3 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 85.2 0.6%
Belmont 14.1% 13.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 4.3 5.0 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 85.9 0.6%
Drake 13.5% 13.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.1 4.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 86.5 0.5%
Murray St. 9.5% 9.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 90.5 0.2%
Southern Illinois 7.7% 7.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 92.3 0.2%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 94.2 0.1%
Indiana St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 96.0 0.0%
Evansville 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Bradley 16.3% 0.4% 16.1% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 15.1% 0.4% 15.0% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 14.8% 0.4% 14.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 14.1% 0.4% 13.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 13.5% 0.4% 13.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 9.5% 0.3% 9.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 7.7% 0.3% 7.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 0.1% 5.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 4.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.9 3.0 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 97.4 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 18.6% 0.2 81.4 18.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0