Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +5.0 98
Results Rating +3.7 108
Consistency 0.19 347
Pace 67.1 224
Improvement -2.5 282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 132 B- C C D+ C-
Defense B- 72 B- B C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 281 B+ 66% 35 +0.9 142
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 213 C 38% 180 +0.1 174
Three Pointers 44% 123 C+ 35% 144 +1.9 118
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 222 B- +3.1 84
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 89
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 254 B- 1.10 84 C 0.31 186
Opponents' Steals C 9.3% 162
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 200
Turnovers C 16.7% 174
Freethrows D+ 0.28 258 C- 71% 238 D+ 0.20 269
Total Offense C+ +1.3 132

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 302 B- 9.7% 107
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 160 C 4.9% 176
Three Pointers B- 87% 117 D 1.5% 311
Total C- 53% 232 C+ 5.1% 120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 228 C 58% 174 -0.8 141
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 22 B 34% 51 +1.8 318
Three Pointers 35% 340 C+ 33% 122 -3.8 35
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 34 B- -1.8 107
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 87
Second Chance B 26.1% 41 B- 0.98 92 B 0.25 44
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.3% 272
Other Turnovers B- 8.2% 74
Turnovers C 16.5% 198
Freethrows C 0.30 176 B+ 69% 32 C+ 0.21 132
Total Defense B- +3.8 72

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 178 C- 9.2% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 107 D 2.2% 325
Three Pointers C+ 82% 130 D+ 0.4% 279
Total B- 51% 96 D+ 4.2% 299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 275 16.7 72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 315 0.16 129
Consistency 0.14 303 0.17 359
Improvement -1.9 284 -0.7 223

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 109 100 89
Results Rating Rank 128 111 84
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 6 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 14% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 14% 10%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 512 - 11
Quad 48 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 210 @Ohio L 68 - 72 68% -2  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 D- -8 D+ F C+ B +4 D A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 165 Cornell W 76 - 65 79% +4  72% 1 - 1 B- +8 F+ -10 D C F A+ +17 A+ B D
 Fri, Nov 14 59 USC L 67 - 87 33% -12  3% 1 - 2 D -11 C- -1 D- C+ B- F+ -10 D+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 265 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 77% +4  88% 2 - 2 C -1 B+ +8 C- F A+ F+ -9 F+ C F
 Sun, Nov 23 228 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 86% +29  91% 3 - 2 A+ +45 A +12 A+ C- A A+ +30 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 169 Charlotte W 79 - 69 71% +8  96% 4 - 2 B +9 B- +5 B C+ A B +5 D A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 171 Furman W 72 - 65 72% +4  81% 5 - 2 B- +6 C +1 C+ B C- B+ +6 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 287 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 91% +9  96% 6 - 2 C +1 B- +4 B+ A D+ C- -3 C- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 347 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 96% +30  99% 7 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +16 A B+ B- A+ +12 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 33 Utah St. L 78 - 83 19% -6  7% 7 - 3 B +9 A +11 A+ A+ F C- -2 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 124 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 47% -0  35% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B+ +13 B+ +8 B A C+ B +5 C D- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 213 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 85% +15  84% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B+ +14 A- +10 A- F+ A+ B +5 C+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 189 @Drake W 73 - 56 65% +8  79% 10 - 3 3 - 0 A +18 C +1 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 297 Evansville W 73 - 47 92% +14  84% 11 - 3 4 - 0 A- +15 F+ -8 D+ F A A+ +23 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 150 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 56% -5  3% 11 - 4 4 - 1 C- -2 B- +4 D+ B- A- D- -7 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 106 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 65% -1  13% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C- -3 F -14 F C- B+ A +11 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 213 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 68% -6  7% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D+ -5 A+ +16 A B B+ F -21 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Bradley W 88 - 62 68% +13  89% 12 - 6 5 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +17 A A- A+ A +11 A+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 95 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 58% +5  76% 13 - 6 6 - 3 B- +8 D- -6 D B+ F A+ +15 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 62 @Belmont L 69 - 80 25% -6  11% 13 - 7 6 - 4 C +1 D+ -3 F+ A- D B +4 D- A B
 Wed, Jan 28 121 @Murray St. W 70 - 65 47% +3  75% 14 - 7 7 - 4 B +11 D -4 C+ C D+ A+ +15 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 124 Southern Illinois L 50 - 54 69% -1  28% 14 - 8 7 - 5 C- -4 F -18 F F B- A+ +14 B A+ A
 Fri, Feb 6 189 Drake W 86 - 76 82% +12  99% 15 - 8 8 - 5 B- +5 B- +5 B+ C+ C+ C+ +0 B B- C-
 Mon, Feb 9 297 @Evansville L 80 - 88 83% -9  15% 15 - 9 8 - 6 D- -13 B+ +8 B+ F A+ F -21 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 150 Valparaiso W 86 - 64 76% +4  56% 16 - 9 9 - 6 A +20 A +12 A+ C B+ A- +8 A+ D D-
 Sun, Feb 15 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 56 - 83 42% -13  12% 16 - 10 9 - 7 F -20 F -16 F+ F D- C- -2 F+ D D+
 Wed, Feb 18 121 Murray St. W 78 - 61 69% +9  76% 17 - 10 10 - 7 A- +17 B +6 A+ B F A+ +13 A+ D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Bradley L 60 - 74 45% -9  5% 17 - 11 10 - 8 D+ -8 D- -7 C+ F F C- -2 D+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 25 95 @Northern Iowa W 71 - 69 35% +0  53% 18 - 11 11 - 8 B +11 A +13 A A- D+ C- -2 F A+ D+
 Sun, Mar 1 62 Belmont L 76 - 77 46%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +5 C+ +1 D B- C- B- +4 C+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B+ C C+ B- 35% 35% 44% C- B- D+ B- C C D+ C- D+ B- C B C+ B- 37% 28% 35% B+ B- B B- B C C B+ C+
1.10 66% 38% 35% +3 0 1.08 28% 1.1 .31 17% .28 71% .20 1.03 58% 34% 33% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.0 .25 16% .30 69% .19
Nov
6		 Ohio D- D+ A+ F D+ 44% 18% 38% C+ D+ F D- F C+ F F F B D- B+ A+ C- 70% 16% 14% F D A+ A A+ F F A+ D+
0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10 1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24
Nov
9		 Cornell F+ C+ F B+ D+ 33% 29% 38% F D C C C F A+ F A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% A A+ A F+ B D F B- F
1.05 63% 29% 39% +1 -1 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 19% .56 52% .29 0.90 60% 22% 17% -16 0 0.70 23% 1.3 .30 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
14		 USC C- F+ A+ F D- 33% 18% 49% C D- A+ F+ C+ B- D- A+ C- F+ F F A- D+ 42% 24% 34% C D+ B+ F+ C F F A- F+
0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21 1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35
Nov
16		 Long Beach St. B+ B B+ F C- 43% 24% 33% C- C- F A- F A+ A+ B A+ F+ F+ B F F 29% 35% 36% B F+ C- B- C F C- A+ B+
1.21 65% 45% 27% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.4 .23 9% .63 79% .50 1.18 69% 32% 45% +7 -2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 9% .29 56% .16
Nov
23		 Coastal Carolina A C- A- A+ A+ 25% 34% 41% D A+ F+ A+ C- A B- B+ B A+ B C A+ A+ 17% 40% 43% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25 0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05
Nov
27		 Charlotte B- C A+ C+ B- 41% 15% 43% B B C B C+ A A+ D+ A+ B C- A F F 36% 25% 39% A D B A+ A+ B F A+ D
1.20 58% 57% 35% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36 1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27
Nov
28		 Furman C A+ C+ D+ B 20% 37% 43% F C+ D+ A+ B C- A- D B B+ B C F+ C- 39% 14% 47% C C- A+ A+ A+ C A A+ A+
1.08 70% 42% 32% +2 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21 0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11
Dec
3		 Eastern Kentucky B- D+ A+ A+ B 41% 16% 43% B B+ D A+ A D+ C A- B- C- C B F+ D+ 18% 30% 52% A- C- B F+ C C+ F A- F
1.25 57% 63% 45% +11 +1 1.25 29% 1.6 .46 17% .34 80% .27 1.10 56% 33% 38% +2 -3 1.00 28% 1.3 .36 18% .40 65% .26
Dec
6		 Chicago St. A+ A+ F A- A 34% 4% 62% B- A A+ F B+ B- F+ F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 24% 41% 35% A- A+ F+ C D A+ D+ F F
1.42 89% 0% 39% +14 +2 1.34 55% 0.9 .47 18% .27 53% .15 0.79 50% 15% 24% -17 -4 0.61 34% 0.9 .32 22% .29 93% .27
Dec
13		 Utah St. A A+ B+ D A+ 39% 32% 30% D A+ C+ A+ A+ F C A+ B C- D- A+ F D 54% 13% 33% D+ D F A+ F A+ B- F C
1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26 1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24
Dec
18		 Southern Illinois B+ A+ A+ F B 35% 19% 46% C+ B B A+ A C+ B F F B A- F A+ D+ 33% 44% 23% A+ C C F D- A+ F A+ D+
1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12 0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22
Dec
21		 Indiana St. A- A+ C+ F A 42% 32% 26% D A- F D+ F+ A+ C- A C B C A+ D+ C+ 41% 7% 52% C C+ A+ F A+ D F A F
1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19 0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28
Dec
29		 Drake C A+ D- A+ A+ 25% 18% 58% C A+ D- F F F C- D D+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 26% 30% 44% A A+ A+ F+ B+ C- C- A+ B-
1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19 0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19
Jan
1		 Evansville F+ B- B- D D+ 36% 23% 42% C D+ F A- F A B- F C- A+ A A+ C+ A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ C A+ A A+ C B- C+
1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19 0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19
Jan
7		 Valparaiso B- A F F+ C- 41% 31% 27% D D+ A D B- A- A+ F B D- C+ D- F F 30% 38% 32% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F D F
1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25 1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48
Jan
10		 Illinois-Chicago F F F F F 26% 15% 58% C- F D+ C+ C- B+ A B- A A A+ C A+ A+ 40% 40% 19% A+ A+ B- F F A- A+ F B+
0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30 0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18
Jan
14		 Indiana St. A+ B+ A A+ A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A F+ A+ B B+ A+ B- A+ F F D F F 46% 14% 40% B- F D+ A+ A F F F+ F
1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30 1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35
Jan
17		 Bradley A+ A+ F A+ A 37% 26% 37% B- A A C+ A- A+ F B+ F A A+ B+ B+ A+ 43% 30% 28% B- A+ D+ A+ B+ A- F C F
1.32 75% 29% 45% +10 -1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 12% .22 77% .17 0.93 40% 29% 31% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .22 18% .42 74% .31
Jan
21		 Northern Iowa D- D C D- D+ 20% 20% 61% D- D B+ B B+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% A+ A+ B F C C- C F D+
0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34 0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20
Jan
24		 Belmont D+ C- F F F+ 28% 19% 53% C- F+ B- A A- D A A+ A+ B F+ F+ F F 38% 31% 31% A+ D- A+ F A B F+ A D+
0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31 1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Murray St. D D- A+ A- C+ 50% 20% 30% B C+ F A+ C D+ D F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ A+ F B+ F B+ F C+
1.02 48% 50% 40% 0 +1 1.04 19% 1.8 .34 17% .25 57% .14 0.94 56% 20% 16% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.6 .29 12% .28 88% .25
Feb
3		 Southern Illinois F F+ F F F 28% 37% 35% F F F D- F B- F F F A+ D D+ A+ B 38% 40% 22% A B A+ A+ A+ A C+ D- C
0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11 0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21
Feb
6		 Drake B- A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B+ D+ A C+ C+ B F C- C+ B+ D- B- B- 33% 31% 35% A- B D+ A B- C- C- C C-
1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19 1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23
Feb
9		 Evansville B+ A+ F A A- 29% 20% 52% C B+ F F F A+ D D+ D F B+ F+ F F 30% 30% 40% B- F A+ F B- F D- F F
1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17 1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27
Feb
12		 Valparaiso A B A+ B+ A 44% 10% 46% A- A+ D+ B C B+ C- A+ A A- B- A+ B A+ 26% 51% 23% A+ A+ B F D D- A+ C- A+
1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29 0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17
Feb
15		 Illinois-Chicago F D A F F+ 22% 17% 61% D+ F+ F A+ F D- F A+ F C- F F A F 48% 33% 19% B F+ D C- D D+ A+ A+ A+
0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09 1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07
Feb
18		 Murray St. B A+ B A A+ 48% 14% 38% A- A+ A+ F B F D- F F A+ C- A A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% A A+ C F D- B A- A+ A+
1.20 71% 43% 42% +11 +2 1.28 50% 0.8 .40 26% .23 45% .10 0.94 61% 29% 18% -10 -1 0.80 32% 1.4 .44 18% .26 57% .15
Feb
21		 Bradley D- A+ F B+ B- 31% 27% 43% C C+ D- F F F F A F C- F F+ A+ D 40% 31% 29% B D+ D- A+ B- F B B+ B+
0.93 73% 23% 38% +3 -1 1.06 23% 0.0 .00 23% .20 80% .16 1.15 86% 44% 13% +4 -1 1.08 31% 0.8 .25 9% .28 69% .19
Feb
25		 Northern Iowa A A+ C+ B- A+ 25% 21% 54% D A C- A+ A- D+ D A+ C- C- C A+ F F 49% 16% 36% D+ F A A+ A+ D+ F A- D-
1.14 75% 40% 35% +5 -1 1.10 24% 1.4 .34 19% .22 82% .18 1.11 59% 29% 56% +11 +1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 13% .35 63% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 16.3 16.3 3rd
4th 30.1 30.1 4th
5th 15.8 15.8 5th
6th 37.7 37.7 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 53.5 46.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 46.5% 13.9% 13.9% 12.1 0.4 5.1 1.0 40.0
11-9 53.5% 10.0% 10.0% 12.4 0.1 3.3 1.9 0.0 48.2
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 12.2 88.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 12.1 6.0 78.5 15.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.1%
Lose Out 8.3%