Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#273
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 21.1% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 80.2% 88.3% 70.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 83.2% 70.9%
Conference Champion 21.2% 25.8% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.2% 3.5%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round16.5% 20.6% 11.7%
Second Round3.7% 5.2% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 38 - 510 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2025 152   @ Ohio W 76-75 54%    
  Nov 09, 2025 165   Cornell W 82-74 77%    
  Nov 14, 2025 29   USC L 68-78 18%    
  Nov 16, 2025 264   @ Long Beach St. W 71-64 74%    
  Nov 23, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina W 75-61 89%    
  Nov 27, 2025 192   Charlotte W 73-66 72%    
  Dec 03, 2025 181   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 78%    
  Dec 06, 2025 351   Chicago St. W 82-62 96%    
  Dec 13, 2025 54   Utah St. L 71-77 31%    
  Dec 18, 2025 138   @ Southern Illinois L 71-72 50%    
  Dec 21, 2025 173   Indiana St. W 83-74 77%    
  Dec 29, 2025 113   @ Drake L 60-62 43%    
  Jan 01, 2026 231   Evansville W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 07, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 10, 2026 153   Illinois-Chicago W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 14, 2026 173   @ Indiana St. W 80-77 58%    
  Jan 17, 2026 107   Bradley W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 21, 2026 112   Northern Iowa W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 25, 2026 111   @ Belmont L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 28, 2026 129   @ Murray St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 03, 2026 138   Southern Illinois W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 06, 2026 113   Drake W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 09, 2026 231   @ Evansville W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 12, 2026 261   Valparaiso W 79-66 86%    
  Feb 15, 2026 153   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 18, 2026 129   Murray St. W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 21, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 25, 2026 112   @ Northern Iowa L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 01, 2026 111   Belmont W 78-74 61%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.8 5.3 4.8 3.3 1.5 0.5 21.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.0 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.6 1.5 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.1 0.2 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.9 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 96.2% 3.3    3.1 0.2
17-3 90.5% 4.8    4.0 0.8 0.0
16-4 67.0% 5.3    3.3 1.8 0.2
15-5 42.5% 3.8    1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 14.8% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 14.5 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 84.5% 59.9% 24.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.2%
19-1 1.5% 69.3% 54.7% 14.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 32.2%
18-2 3.5% 52.2% 46.5% 5.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.7 10.6%
17-3 5.3% 44.3% 40.9% 3.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.0 5.8%
16-4 7.9% 34.8% 33.8% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 1.5%
15-5 8.9% 25.9% 25.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.6 0.1%
14-6 10.3% 18.8% 18.6% 0.1% 12.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 0.2%
13-7 11.0% 14.1% 14.1% 12.3 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.5
12-8 10.6% 9.9% 9.9% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.5
11-9 9.5% 8.6% 8.6% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.7
10-10 8.4% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1
9-11 7.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0
8-12 5.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
7-13 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 16.8% 16.0% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.2 5.3 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 83.2 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 14.1 14.1 35.4 14.1 22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 51.7% 7.8 3.4 48.3