Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#82
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#85
Pace66.3#265
Improvement+4.0#12

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#75
First Shot+3.9#78
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#130
Freethrows-1.4#273
Improvement+4.1#4

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#100
First Shot+0.9#135
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#66
Layups/Dunks-0.5#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement-0.2#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 23.9% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 98.6% 93.6%
Conference Champion 30.8% 38.5% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round21.5% 23.7% 18.1%
Second Round4.4% 5.0% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 6
Quad 39 - 312 - 9
Quad 411 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 190 @Ohio L 68-72 71%     0 - 1 -2.9 -4.8 +1.9
  Sun, Nov 9 159 Cornell W 76-65 82%     1 - 1 +8.0 -6.2 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 14 39 USC L 67-87 29%     1 - 2 -7.4 +0.5 -8.2
  Sun, Nov 16 275 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 83%     2 - 2 -1.2 +8.4 -9.6
  Sun, Nov 23 232 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 90%     3 - 2 +44.7 +15.1 +26.6
  Thu, Nov 27 186 Charlotte W 79-69 79%     4 - 2 +8.2 +8.7 +0.2
  Fri, Nov 28 148 Furman W 72-65 72%     5 - 2 +7.9 +2.6 +5.7
  Wed, Dec 3 256 Eastern Kentucky W 89-78 92%     6 - 2 +2.6 +9.4 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 6 336 Chicago St. W 95-53 96%     7 - 2 +28.3 +19.3 +10.8
  Sat, Dec 13 33 Utah St. L 78-83 26%     7 - 3 +8.4 +14.6 -6.4
  Thu, Dec 18 129 @Southern Illinois W 75-68 57%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +11.9 +5.7 +6.3
  Sun, Dec 21 198 Indiana St. W 85-65 87%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +14.5 +13.5 +1.6
  Mon, Dec 29 141 @Drake W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Jan 1 254 Evansville W 78-63 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 219 @Valparaiso W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 201 Illinois-Chicago W 80-68 87%    
  Wed, Jan 14 198 @Indiana St. W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 107 Bradley W 74-68 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 94 Northern Iowa W 66-62 64%    
  Sun, Jan 25 70 @Belmont L 75-79 35%    
  Wed, Jan 28 100 @Murray St. L 79-81 44%    
  Tue, Feb 3 129 Southern Illinois W 78-70 76%    
  Fri, Feb 6 141 Drake W 75-66 79%    
  Mon, Feb 9 254 @Evansville W 75-66 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 219 Valparaiso W 78-64 89%    
  Sun, Feb 15 201 @Illinois-Chicago W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 100 Murray St. W 82-78 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 107 @Bradley L 71-72 50%    
  Wed, Feb 25 94 @Northern Iowa L 63-65 42%    
  Sun, Mar 1 70 Belmont W 78-76 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.0 8.9 8.2 4.8 2.0 0.3 30.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.0 8.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.4 6.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.9 7.0 10.3 13.6 15.9 15.7 13.6 9.3 4.9 2.0 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.0
18-2 98.4% 4.8    4.5 0.3
17-3 88.5% 8.2    6.5 1.6 0.0
16-4 65.3% 8.9    5.3 3.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.6% 5.0    1.8 2.2 0.9 0.1
14-6 9.1% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.8% 30.8 20.7 7.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 59.2% 41.8% 17.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.8%
19-1 2.0% 53.5% 45.1% 8.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.9 15.2%
18-2 4.9% 40.4% 38.2% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 3.6%
17-3 9.3% 34.6% 33.8% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 1.8 1.3 0.0 6.1 1.2%
16-4 13.6% 29.4% 29.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.5 2.3 0.2 9.6 0.2%
15-5 15.7% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 0.0%
14-6 15.9% 19.6% 19.6% 12.0 0.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.8
13-7 13.6% 14.7% 14.7% 12.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 11.6
12-8 10.3% 12.1% 12.1% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 9.1
11-9 7.0% 8.7% 8.7% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 6.4
10-10 3.9% 7.4% 7.4% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6
9-11 2.0% 5.2% 5.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-12 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.6% 21.2% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 6.9 11.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 78.4 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.7 14.6 12.2 24.4 12.2 19.5 12.2 2.4 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 20.0% 10.2 4.0 8.0 8.0