Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#277
Pace64.3#289
Improvement+0.2#161

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#263
First Shot-2.9#279
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks-2.5#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+1.3#82
Improvement-0.2#223

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#225
First Shot-0.7#202
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#255
Layups/Dunks-1.6#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows-0.8#250
Improvement+0.4#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 3.5% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 47 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 261   Western Illinois L 68-71 64%     0 - 1 -10.9 -9.6 -1.3
  Nov 10, 2022 344   @ Eastern Illinois W 54-49 68%     1 - 1 -4.0 -15.3 +12.0
  Nov 12, 2022 224   @ Northwestern St. W 69-67 35%     2 - 1 +1.6 +6.5 -4.6
  Nov 17, 2022 224   Northwestern St. L 67-70 55%     2 - 2 -8.6 -5.3 -3.6
  Nov 21, 2022 106   LSU L 61-77 21%     2 - 3 -11.8 -12.3 +1.6
  Nov 22, 2022 176   Western Kentucky L 66-78 34%     2 - 4 -12.1 -2.2 -10.9
  Nov 23, 2022 189   Rhode Island L 44-57 38%     2 - 5 -14.0 -19.2 +2.7
  Dec 01, 2022 167   @ Murray St. L 67-70 OT 24%     2 - 6 0 - 1 +0.0 -3.0 +2.9
  Dec 04, 2022 118   Belmont W 87-77 33%     3 - 6 1 - 1 +10.4 +11.0 -0.8
  Dec 07, 2022 321   Eastern Michigan W 87-81 76%     4 - 6 -5.5 +5.9 -11.5
  Dec 10, 2022 232   SIU Edwardsville W 77-71 58%     5 - 6 -0.3 +6.2 -6.2
  Dec 17, 2022 181   Ball St. L 69-83 35%     5 - 7 -14.4 -4.9 -9.6
  Dec 19, 2022 320   Chicago St. W 66-52 75%     6 - 7 +2.6 -5.7 +10.2
  Dec 28, 2022 268   @ Illinois-Chicago L 51-55 45%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -6.9 -17.7 +10.5
  Dec 31, 2022 161   Northern Iowa L 60-66 42%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -8.2 -16.8 +9.0
  Jan 04, 2023 129   Indiana St. L 67-76 35%     6 - 10 1 - 4 -9.3 -1.4 -8.5
  Jan 07, 2023 340   @ Evansville W 69-61 66%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -0.5 -5.5 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2023 137   Missouri St. W 76-66 OT 37%     8 - 10 3 - 4 +9.3 +4.8 +4.7
  Jan 14, 2023 124   @ Southern Illinois L 57-69 18%     8 - 11 3 - 5 -6.6 -0.7 -7.8
  Jan 18, 2023 161   @ Northern Iowa L 63-65 24%     8 - 12 3 - 6 +1.1 -3.6 +4.6
  Jan 21, 2023 270   Valparaiso L 51-71 65%     8 - 13 3 - 7 -28.3 -19.6 -10.6
  Jan 25, 2023 93   @ Bradley L 75-79 OT 13%     8 - 14 3 - 8 +4.0 +2.2 +2.2
  Jan 29, 2023 124   Southern Illinois L 59-63 35%    
  Feb 01, 2023 268   Illinois-Chicago W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 118   @ Belmont L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 08, 2023 93   Bradley L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 270   @ Valparaiso L 66-67 44%    
  Feb 15, 2023 167   Murray St. L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 18, 2023 129   @ Indiana St. L 66-75 18%    
  Feb 22, 2023 90   @ Drake L 59-71 12%    
  Feb 26, 2023 340   Evansville W 71-61 82%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.6 0.3 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 3.7 16.0 21.5 11.5 2.1 0.0 54.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 11.2 10.7 3.2 0.3 28.1 10th
11th 0.7 3.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.9 6.4 18.2 27.2 25.5 14.8 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 1.3% 1.3
9-11 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.4
8-12 14.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.6
7-13 25.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 25.3
6-14 27.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.1
5-15 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.2
4-16 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%