Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.7 103
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 116
Pace 67.6 211
Improvement -2.8 293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 141 B- C C+ D+ C-
Defense B- 71 B- B C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 275 B 65% 47 +0.5 157
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 206 C 38% 163 +0.3 158
Three Pointers 44% 130 C 34% 159 +1.6 123
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 231 B- +2.6 91
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 105
Second Chance D+ 27.1% 276 B 1.13 52 C 0.31 192
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 136
Freethrows C- 0.29 244 C- 71% 239 D+ 0.20 253
Total Offense C +1.0 141

Assists Blocks (Opponent's)
Close Shots D+ 42% 291 C+ 9.9% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 159 C 5.1% 192
Three Pointers B- 87% 122 D- 1.7% 331
Total C- 54% 222 C+ 5.3% 143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 237 C+ 57% 149 -1.4 124
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 19 B 34% 42 +1.7 312
Three Pointers 35% 336 C+ 33% 142 -3.4 48
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 32 B- -2.0 96
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 73
Second Chance B+ 25.8% 37 C+ 0.98 106 B 0.25 46
Turnovers C 16.6% 196
Freethrows C 0.30 183 B 70% 62 C+ 0.21 148
Total Defense B- +3.8 71

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 185 C- 9.7% 220
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 124 D 2.6% 309
Three Pointers B- 81% 122 D+ 0.5% 331
Total B- 52% 98 D+ 4.5% 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 259 16.6 69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 313 0.15 100
Improvement -2.3 #300 -0.5 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 100% 78%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 13% 10%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 511 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 209 @Ohio L 68 - 72 67% -2  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 D- -8 D+ F C+ B +4 D A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 149 Cornell W 76 - 65 76% +4  72% 1 - 1 B +8 F -10 D C- F A+ +18 A+ B D-
 Fri, Nov 14 49 USC L 67 - 87 27% -12  3% 1 - 2 D -9 C- -1 D B- B F+ -9 C- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 260 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 76% +4  88% 2 - 2 C -1 B+ +8 C- F A+ F+ -8 D- C F
 Sun, Nov 23 234 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 86% +29  91% 3 - 2 A+ +45 A +12 A+ C- A A+ +30 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 184 Charlotte W 79 - 69 73% +8  96% 4 - 2 B +8 B- +5 B C+ A- B +4 D- A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 174 Furman W 72 - 65 70% +4  81% 5 - 2 B- +6 C +0 C+ B- C- B+ +6 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 272 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 90% +9  96% 6 - 2 C +1 B- +4 B+ A D+ C- -3 C- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 352 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 97% +30  99% 7 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +15 A B+ B- A+ +12 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 30 Utah St. L 78 - 83 17% -6  7% 7 - 3 B +10 A +12 A+ A+ F C- -2 D F+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 128 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 49% -0  35% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B+ +12 B +6 B- A+ C B+ +6 C D- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 200 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 83% +15  84% 9 - 3 2 - 0 A- +15 A- +10 A- F+ A+ B+ +6 C+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 191 @Drake W 73 - 56 64% +8  79% 10 - 3 3 - 0 A +18 C +1 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 278 Evansville W 73 - 47 91% +14  84% 11 - 3 4 - 0 A- +16 D- -7 C- F A A+ +23 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 170 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 59% -5  3% 11 - 4 4 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 D+ B B+ D- -8 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 118 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 67% -1  13% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C- -4 F -14 F C- A- A +10 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 200 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 65% -6  7% 11 - 6 4 - 3 C- -4 A+ +16 A B- A- F -20 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Bradley W 88 - 62 67% +13  89% 12 - 6 5 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +17 A A- A+ A +10 A+ B A-
 Wed, Jan 21 91 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 58% +5  76% 13 - 6 6 - 3 B- +8 D -6 D+ B+ F A+ +14 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 69 @Belmont L 69 - 80 27% -6  11% 13 - 7 6 - 4 C +0 D+ -3 F+ A- D B +4 D- A B-
 Wed, Jan 28 119 @Murray St. W 70 - 65 45% +3  75% 14 - 7 7 - 4 B +11 D -4 B- C D+ A+ +15 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 128 Southern Illinois L 50 - 54 71% -1  28% 14 - 8 7 - 5 D+ -5 F -20 F F+ B- A+ +15 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Feb 6 191 Drake W 86 - 76 82% +12  99% 15 - 8 8 - 5 B- +5 B- +4 B C+ C+ C+ +1 B C+ C
 Mon, Feb 9 278 @Evansville L 80 - 88 79% -9  15% 15 - 9 8 - 6 D- -12 B+ +9 A- F A+ F -21 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 170 Valparaiso W 86 - 64 78% +4  56% 16 - 9 9 - 6 A +18 A +12 A+ C B A- +7 A+ D F+
 Sun, Feb 15 118 @Illinois-Chicago L 56 - 83 45% -13  12% 16 - 10 9 - 7 F -21 F -17 F+ F D D+ -3 F D D+
 Wed, Feb 18 119 Murray St. W 82 - 77 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Bradley L 72 - 73 44%
 Wed, Feb 25 91 @Northern Iowa L 61 - 65 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 69 Belmont L 76 - 77 48%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +5 C +1 A+ B- C- B- +4 C C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B C C B- 35% 35% 44% C- B- D+ B C C+ C- C- D+ B- C+ B C+ B- 37% 28% 35% B+ B- B+ C+ B C C B C+
1.10 65% 38% 34% +3 0 1.07 27% 1.1 .31 16% .29 71% .20 1.03 57% 34% 33% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.0 .25 17% .30 70% .20
Nov
6		 Ohio D- C- A F+ D+ 44% 18% 38% C+ D+ F D- F C+ F F F B D- B+ A+ C- 70% 16% 14% F D A+ A A+ F F A+ D+
0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10 1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24
Nov
9		 Cornell F C+ F B+ D+ 33% 29% 38% F D C D+ C- F A+ F B+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% A A+ A F+ B D- F B- F+
1.05 63% 29% 39% +2 -1 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 19% .56 52% .29 0.90 60% 22% 17% -16 0 0.70 23% 1.3 .30 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
14		 USC C- F+ A+ F D- 33% 18% 49% C+ D A+ F+ B- B D- A+ C F+ F+ F B+ D+ 42% 24% 34% C C- B+ F+ C- F F A- D-
0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21 1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35
Nov
16		 Long Beach St. B+ B B+ F C- 43% 24% 33% C C- F A- F A+ A+ B A+ F+ D- B+ F F 29% 35% 36% B D- C- C+ C F C- A+ B
1.21 65% 45% 27% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.4 .23 9% .63 79% .50 1.18 69% 32% 45% +7 -2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 9% .29 56% .16
Nov
23		 Coastal Carolina A C- A- A+ A+ 25% 34% 41% D A+ F+ A+ C- A C+ A- B A+ B C A+ A+ 17% 40% 43% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25 0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05
Nov
27		 Charlotte B- C A+ C+ B- 41% 15% 43% B B C B- C+ A- A+ D A+ B C- A F F 36% 25% 39% A D- B+ A+ A+ B F A+ D
1.20 58% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36 1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27
Nov
28		 Furman C A+ B- C- B 20% 37% 43% F C+ D+ A+ B- C- A- F+ B B+ B C D- C- 39% 14% 47% C C A+ A+ A+ C A- A+ A
1.08 70% 42% 32% +3 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21 0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11
Dec
3		 Eastern Kentucky B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 41% 16% 43% B- B+ D A+ A D+ C A- B- C- C+ B F+ D 18% 30% 52% A C- B F+ C C+ F A- F
1.25 57% 63% 45% +11 +1 1.25 29% 1.6 .46 17% .34 80% .27 1.10 56% 33% 38% +2 -3 1.00 28% 1.3 .36 18% .40 65% .26
Dec
6		 Chicago St. A+ A+ F B+ A 34% 4% 62% B- A A+ F B+ B- F+ F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 24% 41% 35% A- A+ F+ C D A+ D+ F F
1.42 89% 0% 39% +14 +2 1.34 55% 0.9 .47 18% .27 53% .15 0.79 50% 15% 24% -17 -4 0.61 34% 0.9 .32 22% .29 93% .27
Dec
13		 Utah St. A A+ B+ D+ A+ 39% 32% 30% D+ A+ B- A+ A+ F C A B C- D- A+ F D 54% 13% 33% D+ D F A+ F+ A+ B- F C
1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26 1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24
Dec
18		 Southern Illinois B A+ A F B 35% 19% 46% C B- B A+ A+ C B- F F B+ A- F A+ D+ 33% 44% 23% A+ C C F D- A+ F A+ C-
1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12 0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22
Dec
21		 Indiana St. A- A+ B- F A 42% 32% 26% D A- F D F+ A+ D+ A C B+ C A+ D+ C+ 41% 7% 52% C C+ A+ F A+ D F A F
1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19 0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28
Dec
29		 Drake C A+ F+ A+ A+ 25% 18% 58% C+ A+ D- F F F C- D+ D+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 26% 30% 44% A A+ A F+ B C- C A+ B-
1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19 0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19
Jan
1		 Evansville D- B- C+ D C- 36% 23% 42% C C- F A- F A B- F C- A+ A- A+ B- A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ C+ B- B-
1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19 0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19
Jan
7		 Valparaiso B- A F D- C- 41% 31% 27% D D+ A D+ B B+ A+ F B D- C+ D- F F 30% 38% 32% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F D F
1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25 1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48
Jan
10		 Illinois-Chicago F F F F F 26% 15% 58% C- F D+ C+ C- A- A B- A A A C A+ A+ 40% 40% 19% A+ A+ B- F F A- A+ F B+
0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30 0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18
Jan
14		 Indiana St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A F A+ B- A- A+ B A+ F F D+ F F 46% 14% 40% B- F D+ A+ A F F D- F
1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30 1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35
Jan
17		 Bradley A+ A+ F A+ A 37% 26% 37% B- A A C A- A+ F B F A A+ B+ B+ A+ 43% 30% 28% C+ A+ D+ A+ B A- F C+ F
1.32 75% 29% 45% +10 -1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 12% .22 77% .17 0.93 40% 29% 31% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .22 18% .42 74% .31
Jan
21		 Northern Iowa D D C D- C- 20% 20% 61% D- D+ B+ B B+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% A+ A+ B F C C- C F D+
0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34 0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20
Jan
24		 Belmont D+ C- F F F+ 28% 19% 53% C F+ B- A A- D A A+ A+ B F+ F+ F F 38% 31% 31% A+ D- A+ F A B- F+ A- D+
0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31 1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Murray St. D D- A+ A- C+ 50% 20% 30% B B- F A+ C D+ D- F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ A+ F B+ F B+ F C
1.02 48% 50% 40% 0 +1 1.04 19% 1.8 .34 17% .25 57% .14 0.94 56% 20% 16% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.6 .29 12% .28 88% .25
Feb
3		 Southern Illinois F F+ F F F 28% 37% 35% F F F D- F+ B- F F F A+ D D+ A+ B 38% 40% 22% A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D- C
0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11 0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21
Feb
6		 Drake B- A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B C- A- C+ C+ B F C- C+ B+ D- B- B- 33% 31% 35% A- B D+ A C+ C C- C+ C-
1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19 1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23
Feb
9		 Evansville B+ A+ F A A 29% 20% 52% C A- F F F A+ D C- D F B F+ F F 30% 30% 40% C+ F A+ F B- F D F F
1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17 1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27
Feb
12		 Valparaiso A B A+ B+ A 44% 10% 46% A- A+ D+ B C B C- A+ A A- B- A+ B A+ 26% 51% 23% A+ A+ B F D F+ A+ C- A
1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29 0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17
Feb
15		 Illinois-Chicago F D A- F F+ 22% 17% 61% D+ F+ F A+ F D F A F D+ F F A- F 48% 33% 19% B F D+ C- D D+ A+ A+ A+
0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09 1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.7 4.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.9 2.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 12.1 14.6 4th
5th 1.2 14.7 2.9 18.9 5th
6th 2.0 17.9 18.6 0.1 38.5 6th
7th 4.8 7.5 0.7 13.0 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.1 26.6 36.7 23.6 6.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.0% 19.2% 19.2% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 4.9
12-8 23.6% 15.1% 15.1% 12.1 0.2 2.9 0.5 20.0
11-9 36.7% 11.9% 11.9% 12.3 0.1 3.1 1.2 0.0 32.3
10-10 26.6% 9.3% 9.3% 12.5 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.1 24.1
9-11 7.1% 6.3% 6.3% 12.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 6.7
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 12.2 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 11.7 0.4 26.7 70.7 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 1.8%