Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#241
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#251
Pace72.9#91
Improvement+0.7#125

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#175
First Shot+0.8#155
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#242
Layup/Dunks-2.4#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#113
Freethrows+2.7#33
Improvement+1.2#65

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#297
First Shot-1.0#209
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#327
Layups/Dunks-3.8#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows-2.6#309
Improvement-0.5#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 8.6% 16.7% 5.7%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 23.7% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.5% 18.2% 38.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 25.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 51 - 8
Quad 32 - 73 - 15
Quad 48 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 283   UNC Wilmington W 68-63 70%     1 - 0 -4.4 -7.9 +3.6
  Nov 12, 2021 260   @ Eastern Michigan L 98-103 2OT 43%     1 - 1 -7.5 -0.5 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2021 89   Murray St. L 65-77 24%     1 - 2 -8.9 -3.9 -5.4
  Nov 20, 2021 291   Bucknell W 105-100 OT 72%     2 - 2 -5.0 +3.0 -9.2
  Nov 23, 2021 56   Saint Louis L 76-82 13%     2 - 3 +2.2 +3.9 -1.5
  Nov 24, 2021 72   Buffalo L 90-106 15%     2 - 4 -9.0 +9.3 -16.8
  Dec 01, 2021 93   Missouri St. L 74-81 26%    
  Dec 04, 2021 258   Jackson St. W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 11, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 18, 2021 214   Ball St. W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 21, 2021 300   Texas San Antonio W 81-75 71%    
  Dec 29, 2021 29   @ Wisconsin L 59-78 4%    
  Jan 02, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 05, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 63-76 12%    
  Jan 08, 2022 245   @ Evansville L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 12, 2022 58   @ Drake L 65-80 8%    
  Jan 16, 2022 213   Bradley W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 19, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 71-84 13%    
  Jan 23, 2022 245   Evansville W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 26, 2022 58   Drake L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 71-82 17%    
  Feb 02, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-79 5%    
  Feb 05, 2022 154   Southern Illinois L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 204   Valparaiso W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 15, 2022 112   Northern Iowa L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 19, 2022 213   @ Bradley L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 22, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 174   Indiana St. L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.2 0.9 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.1 1.1 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.6 5.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 6.7 5.9 1.6 0.1 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.1 7.4 6.4 1.3 0.1 20.2 9th
10th 1.0 3.6 6.1 7.5 4.1 0.9 0.0 23.2 10th
Total 1.0 3.6 7.0 11.9 13.9 15.4 14.0 12.1 9.0 6.0 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 58.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 45.5% 45.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 1.8
10-8 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
9-9 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.9
8-10 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.9
7-11 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 15.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.4
4-14 13.9% 13.9
3-15 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.6% 3.6
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%