Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.1 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +3.7 #106
Pace 66.5 #246
Improvement +0.9 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #99 C+ C+ C+ C C-
Defense #85 B- B C C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.30 #50 +0.8 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #156 0.78 #134 +0.6 #150
Three Pointers 43% #146 1.03 #173 +1.1 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.6 #106
Freethrows 0.30 #184 71% #228 0.22 #193
Second Chance 29.9% #206 1.15 #57 0.34 #122
Turnovers 15.7% #136
Total Offense +2.8 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.15 #157 +1.9 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #21 0.67 #51 -1.7 #306
Three Pointers 36% #301 1.00 #156 +2.8 #78
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #81 +3.0 #86
Freethrows 0.32 #244 68% #25 0.22 #172
Second Chance 26.5% #51 0.98 #98 0.26 #51
Turnovers 16.5% #180
Total Defense +3.3 #85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #231 -2.3% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #84 -3.8% #110
Possession Length 18.3 #271 17.0 #125
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #315 0.15 #95
Improvement +0.2 #168 +0.7 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 24.6% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 99.0% 93.4%
Conference Champion 11.7% 20.8% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.9% 24.5% 18.2%
Second Round3.0% 3.8% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 310 - 512 - 11
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 209 @Ohio L 68 - 72 72% -2  0 - 1 -4 -5 D F C +1 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 175 Cornell W 76 - 65 83% +4  1 - 1 +7 -8 D- C- F +15 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 14 48 USC L 67 - 87 31% -12  1 - 2 -9 +2 D B+ C+ -11 C- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 251 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 78% +4  2 - 2 +0 +11 C- F+ A+ -11 D- C F
 Sun, Nov 23 240 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 89% +30  3 - 2 +45 +13 A+ C- B+ +28 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 171 Charlotte W 79 - 69 75% +10  4 - 2 +9 +9 B- B- A- +1 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 159 Furman W 72 - 65 72% +4  5 - 2 +7 +3 C A+ C +4 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 260 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 90% +9  6 - 2 +3 +8 A- A- D -5 C- C+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 358 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 98% +30  7 - 2 +24 +18 A B B- +8 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 40 Utah St. L 78 - 83 26% -6  7 - 3 +8 +14 A+ A+ F+ -6 D D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 144 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 58% -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +7 B- A D+ +4 C C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 197 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 86% +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +15 +13 A- F+ A+ +2 C A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 147 @Drake W 73 - 56 59% +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +21 +7 A+ F F +15 A+ B- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 270 Evansville W 73 - 47 92% +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +17 -3 C F A +19 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 167 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 64% -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -4 +7 C- B B+ -11 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 135 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 76% -1  11 - 5 4 - 2 -5 -13 F C- B +7 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 197 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 70% -6  11 - 6 4 - 3 -4 +19 A B- B+ -23 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 128 Bradley W 88 - 62 76% +13  12 - 6 5 - 3 +25 +19 A- A- A+ +7 A+ B A-
 Wed, Jan 21 108 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 69% +5  13 - 6 6 - 3 +6 -4 C- B F +10 A+ C C
 Sat, Jan 24 75 @Belmont L 69 - 80 33% -6  13 - 7 6 - 4 -0 +0 D- B+ D -1 D- A B-
 Wed, Jan 28 100 @Murray St. L 80 - 82 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 144 Southern Illinois W 75 - 67 78%
 Fri, Feb 6 147 Drake W 75 - 67 79%
 Mon, Feb 9 270 @Evansville W 74 - 65 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 167 Valparaiso W 74 - 64 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 135 @Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 69 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 100 Murray St. W 83 - 79 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 128 @Bradley W 73 - 72 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 108 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 63 47%
 Sun, Mar 1 75 Belmont W 77 - 75 56%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 8 +6 +3 C+ C+ C+ +3 B- B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.9 1.6 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 10.1 10.3 2.6 0.1 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 11.1 11.2 1.9 0.0 26.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 6.0 8.1 1.5 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 6.3 1.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 1.6 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 8.2 15.8 22.5 23.5 16.6 7.5 1.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 93.5% 1.6    1.2 0.4
15-5 65.3% 4.9    2.4 2.3 0.2
14-6 26.4% 4.4    0.8 2.0 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 4.4 4.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.7% 38.3% 37.4% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.4%
15-5 7.5% 32.4% 32.4% 11.7 0.8 1.6 0.1 5.1
14-6 16.6% 29.9% 29.9% 0.0% 12.0 0.7 3.8 0.5 11.7 0.0%
13-7 23.5% 23.3% 23.3% 12.2 0.3 4.0 1.2 0.0 18.0
12-8 22.5% 17.8% 17.8% 12.4 0.1 2.4 1.4 0.1 18.5
11-9 15.8% 15.1% 15.1% 12.7 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.2 13.4
10-10 8.2% 9.2% 9.2% 12.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.4
9-11 3.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
8-12 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 12.2 79.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.2 4.0 75.4 20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 3.9% 11.0 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%