Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#117
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#154
Pace76.2#27
Improvement-1.0#297

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#128
First Shot+3.3#76
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#312
Layup/Dunks+4.5#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#50
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-0.9#312

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot-0.3#187
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#54
Layups/Dunks-0.7#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#45
Freethrows-1.9#315
Improvement-0.1#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 10.8% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 98.1% 87.2%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.1% 10.8% 8.6%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 362   Green Bay W 80-53 97%     1 - 0 +7.0 -5.6 +11.7
  Nov 12, 2022 155   Ball St. W 83-71 68%     2 - 0 +9.8 +5.7 +3.8
  Nov 17, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 101-75 82%     3 - 0 +19.1 +11.3 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2022 205   East Carolina W 79-75 67%     4 - 0 +2.3 -2.8 +4.7
  Nov 22, 2022 259   UMKC L 61-63 77%     4 - 1 -7.1 -10.0 +2.8
  Nov 23, 2022 202   Drexel W 85-81 66%     5 - 1 +2.4 +18.1 -15.5
  Nov 30, 2022 84   Drake W 75-73 47%     6 - 1 +5.4 -0.6 +5.8
  Dec 03, 2022 297   @ Miami (OH) W 88-61 76%     7 - 1 +22.4 +2.7 +17.6
  Dec 07, 2022 130   @ Southern Illinois W 74-71 41%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +8.0 +6.3 +1.6
  Dec 11, 2022 270   @ Southern Indiana L 85-88 OT 71%     8 - 2 -5.9 -3.8 -1.6
  Dec 17, 2022 126   @ Duquesne L 86-92 41%     8 - 3 -0.9 +6.0 -6.3
  Dec 22, 2022 271   Northern Illinois L 57-67 85%     8 - 4 -18.4 -20.5 +2.3
  Dec 29, 2022 341   Evansville W 91-63 93%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +13.7 +10.3 +2.5
  Jan 01, 2023 267   @ Valparaiso W 68-50 70%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +15.2 -1.8 +17.8
  Jan 04, 2023 234   @ Illinois St. W 76-67 64%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +8.0 +8.6 +0.0
  Jan 07, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago W 80-60 85%     12 - 4 5 - 0 +11.8 +5.2 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2023 130   Southern Illinois L 61-69 62%     12 - 5 5 - 1 -8.5 -9.5 +1.0
  Jan 15, 2023 136   @ Missouri St. L 62-64 43%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +2.5 +1.1 +1.1
  Jan 18, 2023 89   Bradley L 67-78 49%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -8.1 -7.3 +0.0
  Jan 21, 2023 159   @ Murray St. L 73-82 49%     12 - 8 5 - 4 -5.9 +0.0 -5.8
  Jan 24, 2023 84   @ Drake L 68-70 28%     12 - 9 5 - 5 +6.8 +0.2 +6.6
  Jan 28, 2023 160   Northern Iowa W 79-71 69%     13 - 9 6 - 5 +5.6 +3.1 +2.2
  Feb 01, 2023 341   @ Evansville W 83-65 86%     14 - 9 7 - 5 +9.2 +7.2 +1.8
  Feb 04, 2023 159   Murray St. W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 08, 2023 267   Valparaiso W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 160   @ Northern Iowa L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 15, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 18, 2023 234   Illinois St. W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 22, 2023 128   @ Belmont L 76-78 41%    
  Feb 26, 2023 136   Missouri St. W 70-66 65%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 3.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.9 8.1 2.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.7 7.4 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 1.5 13.5 1.8 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 7.9 8.1 0.1 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 11.8 1.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 7.1 4.7 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.7 0.4 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.8 4.4 14.1 26.3 30.3 18.9 5.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 58.2% 3.0    0.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 8.8% 1.7    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 5.1% 16.2% 16.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.3
13-7 18.9% 13.2% 13.2% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 16.4
12-8 30.3% 10.8% 10.8% 14.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 27.0
11-9 26.3% 8.4% 8.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 24.1
10-10 14.1% 7.3% 7.3% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 13.1
9-11 4.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.2
8-12 0.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 2.3 0.1 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 16.2% 13.0 0.1 3.1 8.9 4.0 0.1
Lose Out 0.0%