Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.9 213
Results Rating -5.9 255
Consistency 0.13 92
Pace 70.7 120
Improvement +0.5 171

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 226 B- D+ D D- A-
Defense C- 196 C C D B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 B 64% 62 +6.5 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 340 C+ 40% 119 -4.1 349
Three Pointers 45% 89 D 31% 311 -0.1 181
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.9 9 C +0.4 156
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 102
Second Chance D 25.4% 317 C 1.03 174 D+ 0.26 287
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 334
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 162
Turnovers D 18.7% 299
Freethrows D- 0.26 326 D- 68% 327 D- 0.17 346
Total Offense C- -2.0 226

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 19 D+ 12.3% 263
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 45 C 5.3% 208
Three Pointers B- 88% 98 D 1.4% 308
Total A- 67% 12 D 6.7% 303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 C+ 56% 119 +0.2 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 91 F 46% 358 +2.9 353
Three Pointers 36% 304 B- 32% 82 -3.5 44
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 127 C -0.1 172
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 164
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 271 B- 0.96 69 C 0.31 181
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 259
Other Turnovers D 6.4% 301
Turnovers D 14.8% 294
Freethrows B 0.25 38 C 72% 179 B 0.18 48
Total Defense C- -0.9 196

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 43 C- 9.3% 239
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 46 D+ 2.9% 303
Three Pointers B- 80% 85 C- 0.7% 213
Total A- 46% 19 D+ 4.6% 250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 186 16.9 110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 218 0.20 297
Consistency 0.14 273 0.12 123
Improvement +2.3 77 -1.8 280

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 233 214 194
Results Rating Rank 274 263 238
Conference Record 3 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 32% 7% 45%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 71 - 9
Quad 32 - 93 - 18
Quad 46 - 49 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 169 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 31% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C- -0 C+ D+ C F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 48% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +6 F+ -9 D- C- F A+ +15 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 2 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 B- D+ F+ C- -2 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 216 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 62% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -16 D- F C+ A+ +18 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 22 313 Ball St. W 70 - 52 81% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ A +10 B+ C B+
 Wed, Nov 26 216 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 39% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 A F B+ D- -6 D F C
 Fri, Nov 28 345 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 82% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -20 F -17 F C- D- C- -2 F B- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 338 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 86% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 A- F B- B+ +6 C A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 263 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 49% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F B- +3 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 114 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 38% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 C- F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 98 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 15% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C F+ -9 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 62 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 20% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +7 C- -0 A- D+ C- A- +7 A+ B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 95 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 14% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C -0 B- +4 A+ F C+ D -5 C- F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 189 @Drake L 72 - 74 35% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 C+ +3 C A+ F D+ -5 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 297 Evansville L 69 - 72 78% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 F -12 F C B- C- -2 F A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 98 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 32% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ F+ A+ F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 121 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 20% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ A- C- C -1 C D C-
 Wed, Jan 21 114 @Bradley L 68 - 75 19% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -6 A- F F B +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 189 Drake L 62 - 76 58% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 D+ F F C+ +2 B- A D
 Tue, Jan 27 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 17% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 B- +5 B +6 A+ A+ F C -1 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 150 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 48% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -6 D -5 B- F C+ C -1 B C D
 Tue, Feb 3 297 @Evansville W 84 - 63 58% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ A- B C+ +1 C+ C+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 124 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 40% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 F+ -9 D B F+ D -5 D- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 121 Murray St. L 72 - 74 39% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -2 C- -1 A F F+ C -1 B- F A+
 Sun, Feb 15 150 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 27% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C+ +3 A +13 A- A A F -11 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 95 Northern Iowa L 60 - 81 29% -3  35% 8 - 18 3 - 14 F -18 D -6 B- C F F -14 F B F+
 Sat, Feb 21 62 @Belmont L 70 - 87 9% -10  6% 8 - 19 3 - 15 D+ -5 D -5 C+ D- C C+ +1 B- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 124 @Southern Illinois L 55 - 66 20% -9  15% 8 - 20 3 - 16 D+ -5 F -12 D- C- F A- +7 A B+ F
 Sun, Mar 1 106 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 74 35%
Totals 8 - 21 3 - 17 -3 C- -2 C+ C A- C- -1 D D- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B C+ D C 45% 21% 45% A- B- D C D+ D D- D- D- C- C+ F B- C 40% 23% 36% C+ C D+ B- C D B C B
1.06 64% 40% 31% 0 +2 1.07 25% 1.0 .26 19% .26 68% .17 1.10 56% 46% 32% 0 0 1.01 32% 1.0 .31 15% .25 72% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C- B B- F+ C 44% 10% 46% A C+ D- B+ D+ C B C+ B F C A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D+ F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A+ F F 37% 8% 55% A D- B- D C- F C B C+ A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A D- A+ A+ B B- A- B
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D+ C F D C 43% 6% 51% A+ B- C+ F D+ F+ B+ F C+ C- C- D- C+ B 53% 4% 44% D- B- F F F C B- A- B+
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F D+ F C+ F B- F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ B+ C B- D D- A C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. D+ B A+ F+ C 42% 8% 50% A- C+ C+ F D- D+ F A+ D- A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A B+ F A C B+ A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A- F B+ F A+ F D- C- F A+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A- D D+ F F C A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- D- A- A- A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ B- A+ D- A C-
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B+ 52% 9% 39% A- A- F F F B- F A+ F B+ A B C- C- 33% 25% 41% C+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ A F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F+ F B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley D+ C+ F C+ D 36% 11% 53% A C- F F+ F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C 29% 34% 37% A+ B- C- D- D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C A+ F A F+ F D- A D- 42% 32% 26% B D B+ A+ A F B F C+
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C D D+ C- A+ F C+ A- A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A+ C- A+ B B+ C+ F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C+ F F F D C F A+ C+ 65% 12% 22% F C- F D F C- D+ B- C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake C+ B F D D 39% 5% 57% A+ C B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D+ B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B+ C- C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B- F F 47% 13% 40% A F C C- C B- C+ D+ C C- B+ F+ F F 38% 23% 39% D- F A+ F A B- A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A A+ C+ F F+ A+ A+ B A+ F C- F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F F D F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D B- C 58% 22% 20% B+ C+ C- A+ A- C- D F F+ C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C D C- D C- D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A- A- F F F F F D+ F B A A A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D 33% 17% 50% B- D+ F+ F F F C+ F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ C- A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A A+ F F F F C C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C F+ C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F F+ F C+ B+ F C- C A+ F A+ A- 51% 29% 20% F B F A C D F+ B+ D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B A- A- B F F F C+ A F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D A C+ D- D- A C-
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F+ C- C+ F F+ 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ C- D+ D+ D D+ D- C- D- 46% 29% 25% C- D- F+ A+ B+ C- A C- A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A 38% 10% 52% A- A C+ F F F+ A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% C+ B- F C F A+ F B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A F+ C- D- F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B- F C- D- A+ A-
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Iowa D D+ A+ D+ C 49% 9% 43% A B- A F C F C+ F D- F B- F F F 41% 13% 46% C- F A+ F B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15 1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03
Feb
21		 Belmont D A F F+ C 43% 9% 48% A C+ F B+ D- C F A+ F C+ F+ F A+ C+ 34% 20% 46% A B- A- A+ A+ F A- F C+
0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12 1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20
Feb
25		 Southern Illinois F C F F+ D- 29% 18% 53% C D- D B C- F D- F F A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% D A A- B- B+ F B F D+
0.78 57% 22% 27% -9 0 0.84 23% 1.1 .26 25% .23 50% .11 0.93 69% 21% 12% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.9 .21 11% .26 88% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 59.9 35.4 95.3 10th
11th 4.7 4.7 11th
Total 64.6 35.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 35.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 35.3
3-17 64.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 64.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 50.4%