Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#174
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#200
Pace74.2#70
Improvement-3.0#343

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#173
First Shot+4.3#57
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#355
Layup/Dunks+5.0#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#137
Freethrows+1.6#84
Improvement-1.4#305

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#186
First Shot-1.3#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#126
Layups/Dunks+0.5#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#242
Freethrows+1.0#133
Improvement-1.6#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 4.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.1
.500 or above 33.9% 58.3% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 64.0% 35.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 6.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 3.8% 11.5%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round2.1% 4.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 65 - 14
Quad 49 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 301   @ Green Bay W 81-77 66%     1 - 0 -0.7 +1.7 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 67-92 2%     1 - 1 -1.4 -0.8 +0.3
  Nov 18, 2021 228   Old Dominion W 77-36 60%     2 - 1 +37.9 +7.1 +32.5
  Nov 19, 2021 35   Oklahoma L 63-87 13%     2 - 2 -12.3 -7.3 -3.6
  Nov 20, 2021 102   New Mexico St. L 66-80 32%     2 - 3 -9.7 -5.1 -4.9
  Nov 27, 2021 214   @ Ball St. L 75-97 45%     2 - 4 -21.2 -1.8 -18.6
  Dec 01, 2021 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-76 7%    
  Dec 04, 2021 136   Miami (OH) W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 13, 2021 182   @ North Dakota St. L 69-71 41%    
  Dec 18, 2021 342   Alabama A&M W 79-63 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 312   @ Northern Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 307   Coppin St. W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 02, 2022 213   Bradley W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 05, 2022 245   Evansville W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 58   @ Drake L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 11, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 19, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 22, 2022 204   Valparaiso W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 25, 2022 93   Missouri St. L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 30, 2022 213   @ Bradley L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 02, 2022 58   Drake L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 09, 2022 245   @ Evansville W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 15, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 154   Southern Illinois W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 23, 2022 112   Northern Iowa L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.2 3.0 1.0 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.3 6.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.2 6.1 2.3 0.1 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.9 1.6 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.2 9.4 12.6 14.0 14.2 12.2 10.3 7.1 4.4 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 69.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 8.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 68.9% 46.7% 22.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.7%
15-3 0.6% 19.4% 15.4% 3.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.7%
14-4 1.1% 16.5% 16.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.2% 11.8% 11.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-6 4.4% 5.8% 5.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.2
11-7 7.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
10-8 10.3% 4.1% 4.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 9.9
9-9 12.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.0
8-10 14.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 13.9
7-11 14.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 12.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-13 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 6.2% 6.2
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 97.9 0.0%