Belmont
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#128
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#116
Pace70.7#109
Improvement+0.7#106

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#93
First Shot+4.6#55
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#300
Layup/Dunks+0.4#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#9
Freethrows-2.6#340
Improvement+0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#198
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#258
Layups/Dunks-4.3#333
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#46
Freethrows+1.1#100
Improvement+0.6#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 9.4% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 36.8% 41.8% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.0% 9.4% 7.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 80.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 37 - 69 - 9
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 153   Ohio W 70-69 67%     1 - 0 -1.1 -6.5 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2022 87   @ Furman L 74-89 28%     1 - 1 -6.5 +0.3 -6.3
  Nov 14, 2022 194   @ Lipscomb L 75-77 53%     1 - 2 -0.5 +0.8 -1.3
  Nov 18, 2022 187   Tarleton St. L 81-89 63%     1 - 3 -9.0 +2.5 -10.9
  Nov 19, 2022 122   George Mason W 66-62 49%     2 - 3 +6.7 +0.5 +6.5
  Nov 21, 2022 269   Howard W 96-73 77%     3 - 3 +17.4 +14.4 +1.6
  Nov 27, 2022 231   @ Georgia St. W 68-66 62%     4 - 3 +1.1 +1.5 -0.3
  Dec 01, 2022 267   Valparaiso W 76-64 84%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +3.7 +3.8 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2022 234   @ Illinois St. L 77-87 63%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -11.0 +2.9 -13.7
  Dec 10, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee L 75-85 OT 59%     5 - 5 -10.1 -4.4 -4.6
  Dec 18, 2022 164   @ Chattanooga W 83-79 OT 48%     6 - 5 +6.9 +6.0 +0.8
  Dec 21, 2022 145   Samford W 79-56 64%     7 - 5 +21.6 +12.2 +12.3
  Dec 28, 2022 89   Bradley W 63-60 48%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +5.9 -1.2 +7.4
  Jan 01, 2023 130   @ Southern Illinois L 45-63 40%     8 - 6 2 - 2 -13.0 -18.7 +4.2
  Jan 04, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-71 69%     9 - 6 3 - 2 +3.2 -5.5 +8.0
  Jan 07, 2023 136   Missouri St. W 74-61 62%     10 - 6 4 - 2 +12.1 +9.8 +3.8
  Jan 10, 2023 267   @ Valparaiso W 74-59 69%     11 - 6 5 - 2 +12.2 +1.7 +10.6
  Jan 14, 2023 160   Northern Iowa W 76-72 68%     12 - 6 6 - 2 +1.6 +7.9 -6.0
  Jan 17, 2023 159   Murray St. W 80-65 67%     13 - 6 7 - 2 +12.6 +11.9 +2.1
  Jan 21, 2023 89   @ Bradley W 78-76 28%     14 - 6 8 - 2 +10.3 +12.6 -2.2
  Jan 25, 2023 341   @ Evansville W 73-64 85%     15 - 6 9 - 2 +0.2 -2.1 +2.3
  Jan 29, 2023 84   Drake L 61-79 46%     15 - 7 9 - 3 -14.6 -7.3 -7.8
  Feb 01, 2023 159   @ Murray St. L 82-83 47%     15 - 8 9 - 4 +2.1 +8.0 -5.9
  Feb 04, 2023 234   Illinois St. W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 08, 2023 136   @ Missouri St. L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 11, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 15, 2023 341   Evansville W 81-64 94%    
  Feb 19, 2023 84   @ Drake L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 22, 2023 117   Indiana St. W 78-76 59%    
  Feb 26, 2023 160   @ Northern Iowa L 72-73 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.9 17.8 12.5 2.5 36.8 1st
2nd 1.1 16.1 10.6 0.6 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.6 10.0 0.4 16.0 3rd
4th 0.5 7.9 1.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 3.3 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 0.3 2.7 6th
7th 0.5 0.8 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.9 5.3 18.3 31.2 28.8 13.1 2.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 2.5    2.5
15-5 95.5% 12.5    8.9 3.5 0.1
14-6 61.8% 17.8    4.3 8.8 4.2 0.5 0.0
13-7 12.6% 3.9    0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.8% 36.8 15.8 12.8 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.5% 13.7% 13.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.1%
15-5 13.1% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 11.5
14-6 28.8% 10.2% 10.2% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.0 25.9
13-7 31.2% 8.1% 8.1% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 28.7
12-8 18.3% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 17.0
11-9 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.0
10-10 0.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 91.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 13.7% 12.3 1.0 7.5 4.5 0.6