Belmont
Ohio Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#68
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#78
Pace74.9#58
Improvement+0.0#166

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#50
First Shot+5.1#41
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks+5.0#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#45
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement-1.5#313

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#100
First Shot+1.1#132
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#113
Layups/Dunks+1.3#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#247
Freethrows+3.6#8
Improvement+1.6#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.1% 47.2% 37.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 3.2% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
Conference Champion 56.6% 57.5% 49.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round45.6% 46.7% 37.3%
Second Round11.4% 12.0% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.8% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 35 - 28 - 6
Quad 416 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 76   @ Ohio L 80-92 40%     0 - 1 -2.1 +5.3 -6.7
  Nov 13, 2021 245   Evansville W 81-43 91%     1 - 1 +30.6 +8.1 +23.9
  Nov 15, 2021 105   Furman W 95-89 OT 72%     2 - 1 +7.3 +6.5 -0.2
  Nov 19, 2021 278   @ Kennesaw St. W 97-78 84%     3 - 1 +15.8 +20.2 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2021 10   @ LSU L 53-83 13%     3 - 2 -10.6 -12.7 +3.5
  Nov 25, 2021 58   Drake W 74-69 48%     4 - 2 +12.9 +2.5 +10.2
  Nov 26, 2021 106   Iona W 72-65 62%     5 - 2 +11.2 +1.4 +9.7
  Nov 28, 2021 113   Dayton L 61-63 64%     5 - 3 +1.6 -2.3 +3.6
  Dec 02, 2021 222   Lipscomb W 84-71 89%    
  Dec 05, 2021 239   @ Samford W 86-78 79%    
  Dec 07, 2021 56   @ Saint Louis L 75-79 36%    
  Dec 15, 2021 100   Chattanooga W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 30, 2021 322   @ SIU Edwardsville W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 01, 2022 347   @ Eastern Illinois W 82-64 95%    
  Jan 06, 2022 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-70 95%    
  Jan 08, 2022 346   @ Tennessee Martin W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 13, 2022 259   Austin Peay W 82-66 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 89   Murray St. W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 20, 2022 134   @ Morehead St. W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 277   Tennessee Tech W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 27, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 346   Tennessee Martin W 89-65 98%    
  Feb 03, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. W 85-72 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 277   @ Tennessee Tech W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 134   Morehead St. W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 85-73 86%    
  Feb 17, 2022 347   Eastern Illinois W 85-61 99%    
  Feb 19, 2022 322   SIU Edwardsville W 84-64 96%    
  Feb 24, 2022 89   @ Murray St. L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 88-69 96%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 9.4 19.3 18.6 7.3 56.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.9 8.9 11.0 4.8 29.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.1 2.9 0.6 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.2 8.4 13.7 20.9 24.0 18.6 7.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.3    7.3
17-1 100.0% 18.6    16.8 1.8
16-2 80.1% 19.3    12.9 6.3 0.1
15-3 44.8% 9.4    4.4 4.2 0.8
14-4 13.3% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.6% 56.6 41.8 13.3 1.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.3% 76.1% 68.2% 7.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 24.8%
17-1 18.6% 62.8% 59.4% 3.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.5 1.7 0.1 6.9 8.3%
16-2 24.0% 51.6% 50.4% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 1.1 6.4 4.0 0.9 0.1 11.6 2.5%
15-3 20.9% 41.0% 40.8% 0.2% 12.8 0.2 2.9 4.2 1.1 0.1 12.3 0.3%
14-4 13.7% 34.0% 33.8% 0.2% 13.1 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.1 9.0 0.2%
13-5 8.4% 24.0% 24.0% 13.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 6.4
12-6 4.2% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6
11-7 1.9% 17.7% 17.7% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
10-8 0.6% 29.7% 29.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 46.1% 44.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.8 5.1 16.9 13.5 4.7 0.9 0.0 53.9 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 6.0 0.1 2.9 14.2 21.5 30.6 17.9 4.9 1.5 3.2 1.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 57.3% 9.6 3.3 3.7 6.7 7.3 18.0 11.3 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 63.9% 10.1 30.6 33.3