Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#94
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#74
Pace75.2#55
Improvement+1.5#76

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#126
First Shot+2.0#114
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#198
Layup/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#32
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement+0.4#149

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#71
First Shot+4.0#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#198
Layups/Dunks+4.4#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#129
Freethrows+0.9#127
Improvement+1.1#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 23.8% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 97.4% 98.9% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 92.9% 86.4%
Conference Champion 28.8% 33.1% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round21.1% 23.6% 17.5%
Second Round4.3% 5.1% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 310 - 512 - 8
Quad 411 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 322 Air Force W 79-63 94%     1 - 0 +4.4 +6.2 -1.1
  Sat, Nov 8 223 Tennessee St. W 87-79 87%     2 - 0 +1.3 +0.5 -0.3
  Sat, Nov 15 295 @Oral Roberts W 83-60 83%     3 - 0 +18.6 +0.3 +16.6
  Wed, Nov 19 170 Lipscomb W 75-68 82%     4 - 0 +2.8 -5.6 +7.7
  Mon, Nov 24 358 St. Francis (PA) W 94-57 95%     5 - 0 +23.2 +14.0 +8.3
  Wed, Nov 26 171 Toledo W 87-72 74%     6 - 0 +13.8 +8.7 +4.9
  Sun, Nov 30 151 @College of Charleston W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Dec 3 117 Richmond W 78-72 70%    
  Sun, Dec 7 149 @Middle Tennessee W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Dec 13 174 Illinois-Chicago W 82-72 82%    
  Tue, Dec 16 291 @Evansville W 77-67 82%    
  Fri, Dec 19 134 @UC Irvine W 71-70 53%    
  Mon, Dec 29 195 @Indiana St. W 81-76 67%    
  Thu, Jan 1 116 Bradley W 77-72 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 142 Southern Illinois W 80-72 75%    
  Wed, Jan 7 93 @Northern Iowa L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 143 @Drake W 70-68 57%    
  Tue, Jan 13 267 Valparaiso W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 17 142 @Southern Illinois W 77-75 55%    
  Sun, Jan 25 100 Illinois St. W 76-72 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 267 @Valparaiso W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 118 Murray St. W 85-79 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 143 Drake W 73-65 75%    
  Fri, Feb 6 174 @Illinois-Chicago W 79-75 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 116 @Bradley L 74-75 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 93 Northern Iowa W 69-66 60%    
  Sun, Feb 15 118 @Murray St. L 82-83 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 195 Indiana St. W 84-73 83%    
  Wed, Feb 25 291 Evansville W 80-64 92%    
  Sun, Mar 1 100 @Illinois St. L 73-75 42%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 7.4 6.6 4.2 1.9 0.4 28.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.9 5.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.6 0.2 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.3 6.5 9.1 11.1 13.2 13.9 12.4 10.2 7.3 4.3 1.9 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 98.6% 4.2    4.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 91.5% 6.6    5.6 1.0 0.0
16-4 71.8% 7.4    4.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 43.6% 5.4    2.4 2.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 18.2% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.8% 28.8 19.8 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 71.8% 53.0% 18.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 40.0%
19-1 1.9% 57.2% 49.0% 8.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 16.1%
18-2 4.3% 47.6% 44.6% 3.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 5.4%
17-3 7.3% 40.0% 39.1% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 4.4 1.5%
16-4 10.2% 32.5% 32.3% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 0.2%
15-5 12.4% 26.9% 26.8% 0.1% 12.0 0.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.1 0.1%
14-6 13.9% 21.4% 21.3% 0.0% 12.2 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 11.0 0.0%
13-7 13.2% 17.4% 17.4% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.1 10.9
12-8 11.1% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 9.7
11-9 9.1% 9.5% 9.5% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3
10-10 6.5% 7.1% 7.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.1
9-11 4.3% 5.2% 5.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 1.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.3% 20.9% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 4.9 10.7 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 78.7 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.6 3.8 11.5 7.7 26.9 26.9 7.7 3.8 11.5