Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #250
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 #270
Pace 69.1 #187
Improvement +1.3 #117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 D+ D+ F C- D-
Defense #136 C C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #327 1.24 #91 -2.1 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.72 #220 +1.9 #84
Three Pointers 41% #186 0.87 #328 -3.0 #283
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #266 -3.3 #269
Freethrows 16.6 #230 73% #185 12.0 #219
Second Chance 23.5% #344 1.19 #33 0.28 #260
Turnovers 19.6% #330
Total Offense -6.2 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.10 #105 +2.5 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.84 #304 -2.1 #329
Three Pointers 41% #195 1.07 #267 -1.1 #231
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.7 #201
Freethrows 16.3 #132 74% #236 12.0 #214
Second Chance 30.9% #187 1.03 #169 0.32 #173
Turnovers 17.6% #110
Total Defense +0.9 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #321 -1.1% #87
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #236 2.5% #230
Possession Length 17.7 #211 15.4 #4
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #281 0.20 #259
Improvement -2.7 #326 +4.0 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 63.0% 46.7% 69.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 70 - 10
Quad 33 - 114 - 21
Quad 43 - 37 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 4 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1%  -18  0 - 1 -6 -6 F A+ C -4 C- A D+
 Wed, Nov 12 120 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 32%  -8  0 - 2 -5 -1 B+ F C- -4 D A C
 Tue, Nov 18 154 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 40%  -3  0 - 3 -11 +6 C- A+ C -17 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 188 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 36%  +4  1 - 3 +2 +1 D+ B- F +1 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 62 Akron L 59 - 97 10%  -13  1 - 4 -29 -13 F B F -16 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 152 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 30%  -12  1 - 5 -19 -14 F F D+ -4 F C B-
 Wed, Dec 3 313 Ball St. W 64 - 52 74%  +1  2 - 5 +0 -11 F F F +12 B+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 151 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 20%  -3  2 - 6 +2 +5 B B+ F -3 F A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 70 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 7%  -11  2 - 7 -13 -5 B+ D F -9 F A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 76 Belmont L 78 - 83 17%  -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -0 -0 C F B- +0 A- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 164 Drake L 65 - 66 44%  -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -5 -5 F A- F +1 C C A
 Mon, Dec 29 110 @Bradley L 68 - 76 13%  +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -1 +0 D- B- A+ -1 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 91 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 10%  -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -17 -22 F F F +5 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 103 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 24%  -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -12 -15 D+ F F +2 D- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 89 Murray St. L 69 - 79 20%  -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -6 B+ F F -0 A- C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 206 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 29%  +0  3 - 13 1 - 6 +3 -2 A F F +5 A+ F D-
 Tue, Jan 13 110 Bradley L 67 - 73 28% 
 Tue, Jan 20 172 @Illinois-Chicago L 64 - 71 25% 
 Sun, Jan 25 127 Southern Illinois L 68 - 72 35% 
 Wed, Jan 28 164 @Drake L 64 - 72 24% 
 Sat, Jan 31 103 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 68 11% 
 Tue, Feb 3 206 Indiana St. W 72 - 71 51% 
 Fri, Feb 6 194 @Valparaiso L 65 - 71 28% 
 Mon, Feb 9 91 Illinois St. L 64 - 72 21% 
 Thu, Feb 12 127 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 75 17% 
 Wed, Feb 18 172 Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 68 46% 
 Sat, Feb 21 89 @Murray St. L 70 - 85 8% 
 Wed, Feb 25 76 @Belmont L 67 - 83 7% 
 Sat, Feb 28 194 Valparaiso L 67 - 68 49% 
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -5 -6 D+ D+ F +1 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.3 8.1 11.1 4.5 0.5 0.0 26.8 10th
11th 2.7 9.3 15.6 13.5 5.0 0.6 0.0 46.9 11th
Total 2.7 9.6 17.9 22.1 20.1 14.1 7.9 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-12 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
7-13 7.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.9
6-14 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
5-15 20.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.1
4-16 22.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.1
3-17 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.9
2-18 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
1-19 2.7% 2.7
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%