Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 273
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 294
Pace 67.5 215
Improvement +0.5 165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #298 C- D D C- D-
Defense C- #224 D+ C- C C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 346 61% 95 -3.7 306
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 65 39% 125 +2.8 53
Three Pointers 43% 154 32% 250 -0.3 190
1st FG Attempt 1.00 207 -1.1 207
Second Chance 23.1% 347 1.06 130 0.25 321
Turnovers 19.3% 316
Freethrows 0.29 225 72% 182 0.21 210
Total Offense -4.7 298

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 298 60% 228 +1.6 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 83 41% 286 -1.9 322
Three Pointers 42% 151 36% 285 -1.9 281
1st FG Attempt 1.06 252 -2.2 253
Second Chance 31.7% 233 1.03 193 0.33 227
Turnovers 16.9% 182
Freethrows 0.29 119 72% 202 0.21 128
Total Defense -1.6 224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.4 329 -0.6 71
Shot Type Accuracy +0.3 163 +2.8 289
Possession Length 18.2 276 16.3 32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 344 0.21 303
Improvement +1.9 #91 -1.4 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 90.9% 74.9% 93.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 81 - 11
Quad 33 - 113 - 21
Quad 42 - 36 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 9 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  7% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -8 F A+ B- C- -3 C- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 12 172 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 40% -8  4% 0 - 2 D -9 D -6 C+ D D+ C- -3 D A C-
 Tue, Nov 18 169 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 40% -3  27% 0 - 3 D- -12 C+ +3 C- A+ C- F -15 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 178 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 31% +4  82% 1 - 3 C+ +3 C- -1 D+ C+ D- B- +4 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 74 Akron L 59 - 97 10% -13  3% 1 - 4 F -30 F -15 D- B+ F F -16 F+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 155 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 28% -12  2% 1 - 5 F -19 F -16 F F C- C- -3 D- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 307 Ball St. W 64 - 52 70% +1  51% 2 - 5 C +0 F -13 D- F F+ A+ +14 B A A
 Sat, Dec 6 159 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 20% -3  43% 2 - 6 C+ +2 B- +4 B+ C+ D C- -2 F+ B A
 Sat, Dec 13 82 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 8% -11  1% 2 - 7 F+ -14 F -10 B- D- F D -5 F+ B+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 78 Belmont L 78 - 83 16% -7  0% 2 - 8 0 - 1 C -1 D -4 C F+ C+ B- +4 B+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 177 Drake L 65 - 66 41% -2  38% 2 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -5 F+ -9 F B+ F+ B- +4 C- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 119 @Bradley L 68 - 76 13% +2  61% 2 - 10 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 D- C+ A- C+ +1 C+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 96 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 9% -14  9% 2 - 11 0 - 4 F -18 F -24 F F+ F B+ +7 C+ A D-
 Sun, Jan 4 100 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 21% -12  0% 2 - 12 0 - 5 D- -12 F -17 C- F F B- +3 D- B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 112 Murray St. L 69 - 79 26% -4  20% 2 - 13 0 - 6 D -10 F -11 B- F F C+ +2 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 198 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 26% +0  46% 3 - 13 1 - 6 C+ +4 D -4 A- F F A- +8 A+ D- D-
 Tue, Jan 13 119 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 28% +3  55% 3 - 14 1 - 7 C- -4 B +7 A C- C F+ -11 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 16% -13  11% 3 - 15 1 - 8 F -23 F -20 F F F C- -3 D- C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 177 @Drake L 78 - 82 22% +6  88% 3 - 16 1 - 9 C- -2 B +6 A+ F D+ D- -8 D+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 100 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 9% -16  5% 3 - 17 1 - 10 D+ -8 C -0 C C A- F+ -11 F+ F A-
 Tue, Feb 3 198 Indiana St. L 63 - 84 47% -15  1% 3 - 18 1 - 11 F -26 D- -7 D+ D- C- F -22 F F F+
 Fri, Feb 6 154 @Valparaiso L 63 - 70 OT 19% -1  25% 3 - 19 1 - 12 C- -4 F+ -8 C+ F D+ B +4 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 9 96 Illinois St. W 88 - 80 21% +9  82% 4 - 19 2 - 12 B +10 A+ +20 A+ C- A+ D- -9 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 131 @Southern Illinois L 64 - 75 14%
 Wed, Feb 18 137 Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 112 @Murray St. L 74 - 87 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 78 @Belmont L 68 - 85 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 154 Valparaiso L 67 - 70 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 131 Southern Illinois L 67 - 72 31%
Totals 5 - 24 3 - 17 -6 D+ -5 C- D D C- -2 D+ C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ B- C+ C- C 30% 27% 43% D- C- F+ C+ D D C- C C- C- C- D+ D+ D+ 35% 24% 42% B- D+ C- C C- C C+ C C+
1.02 61% 39% 32% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.1 .25 19% .29 72% .21 1.11 60% 41% 36% +3 -1 1.06 32% 1.0 .33 17% .29 72% .21
Nov
4		 Purdue F+ C- F F F 17% 33% 50% D- F A+ D+ A+ B- F F F C- D+ B F C- 27% 23% 50% B- C- C A- B+ D+ C F D+
0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04 1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24
Nov
12		 Middle Tennessee D B- A F B- 44% 31% 25% D C+ D- C D D+ A D B+ C- F F A+ D- 27% 31% 42% A D B- A+ A C- D+ A- C
1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29 1.08 73% 65% 26% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17
Nov
18		 Texas Arlington C+ A- F D- C- 35% 26% 39% C C- C- A+ A+ C- A+ C A+ F F F F F 33% 28% 38% A+ F F F F A+ F F F
1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39 1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42
Nov
21		 Oregon St. C- A F D C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B+ D+ C+ D- A+ B+ A+ B- A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D+ A+ F F F B- D D- F+
1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50 1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35
Nov
23		 Akron F B- A F D- 30% 26% 44% D- D- D- A+ B+ F A+ F A F F F C- F+ 42% 8% 50% D- F+ F+ F F C+ F C+ F
0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29 1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35
Nov
24		 College of Charleston F D- C F F 47% 21% 32% A- F F A+ F C- A- B- A- C- B+ D+ F F+ 31% 20% 49% C+ D- B- D+ C+ C C C- C
0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22 1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27
Dec
3		 Ball St. F A+ A- F D 26% 23% 51% D D- F+ F+ F F+ A- C- B+ A+ B+ A B B 31% 25% 44% B+ B B A+ A A B- C- B-
0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27 0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
6		 Western Kentucky B- A- D A+ A 12% 33% 56% F B+ B- C- C+ D C+ F D- C- B+ B F F 45% 24% 31% C F+ D- A+ B A F C F
1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -4 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22 1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29
Dec
13		 Notre Dame F B- F+ B- B- 28% 22% 50% C- B- C- F D- F D F F+ D A+ F+ F F 25% 29% 45% A F+ B A- B+ B- C C- C
0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15 1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Belmont D F D B+ C 24% 19% 57% C- C F+ D F+ C+ A+ A A+ B- B A+ F A- 50% 13% 37% C- B+ A A+ A+ C F D- F
1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32 1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29
Dec
21		 Drake F+ F+ C+ F F 22% 36% 42% F F C- A+ B+ F+ A+ B+ A+ B- C D+ C- C- 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C B C+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30 1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09
Dec
29		 Bradley D+ C- C+ D D+ 17% 47% 36% F D- D- A+ C+ A- F C- F+ C+ F A+ D+ C- 26% 39% 35% A+ C+ C A+ A F C F+ D+
0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17 1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
1		 Illinois St. F D- F D+ F 21% 38% 40% F F D+ F F+ F D C D B+ C- D B- C+ 36% 23% 42% C C+ A+ D A D- C A- C+
0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19 1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19
Jan
4		 Northern Iowa F A+ C F C- 42% 26% 33% C- C- F B F F C+ D+ C B- A D F F 30% 21% 49% A D- C+ A+ B A+ C+ B B-
0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18 0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15
Jan
7		 Murray St. F A+ A+ F B 41% 35% 24% D- B- F F F F B C B C+ C+ F A B+ 40% 17% 42% C B B+ F+ C+ D- F A+ D
0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25 1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29
Jan
10		 Indiana St. D D+ B A+ A- 38% 23% 39% C- A- F A+ F F F A+ F A- B+ D A+ A+ 47% 13% 40% C+ A+ F C+ D- D- D+ C- D+
1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07 0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20
Jan
13		 Bradley B A B+ A+ A+ 20% 36% 44% F+ A D- B+ C- C A+ C+ A+ F+ D+ F B F+ 40% 28% 32% C+ D- D+ A+ B F D C- D
1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38 1.24 63% 59% 32% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29
Jan
20		 Illinois-Chicago F F B- F F 25% 11% 64% C F D- F F F F+ A D+ C- F F+ A+ F 43% 29% 27% B D- B- F+ C- F C- A+ B
0.73 45% 40% 25% -11 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21 1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21
Jan
28		 Drake B A+ B+ A+ A+ 23% 37% 40% F A+ F F F D+ F F F D- F F+ C D 18% 22% 60% B+ D+ D+ A B- F+ F D+ F
1.17 83% 42% 52% +19 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13 1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47
Jan
31		 Northern Iowa C B A+ F B- 17% 30% 52% F C D A+ C A- F A+ F F+ F F B- F 31% 16% 53% B F+ F+ F F A- A+ F A+
0.95 63% 50% 25% -2 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12 1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Indiana St. D- D A+ F C+ 17% 40% 43% F D+ D- D+ D- C- A- F B- F D- C+ F F 37% 15% 48% A F F D- F F+ A A+ A
1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21 1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09
Feb
6		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F A+ C+ 35% 25% 39% D+ C+ F+ F F D+ F F+ F B C+ A+ A A+ 23% 38% 40% A A+ F F F A A F B
0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12 1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22
Feb
9		 Illinois St. A+ D+ A A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% D+ A+ F A+ C- A+ C A+ B+ D- F A F F 29% 20% 52% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ C- B
1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27 1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 4.4 10.9 7.5 1.7 0.1 24.6 10th
11th 22.9 32.4 16.2 3.1 0.1 74.6 11th
Total 22.9 36.8 27.1 10.7 2.3 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-16 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.1
3-17 36.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 36.8
2-18 22.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.9
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 19.3%