Evansville
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#341
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#330
Pace71.2#102
Improvement-1.4#328

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#352
First Shot-5.4#329
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#346
Layup/Dunks-2.5#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#251
Freethrows-2.1#324
Improvement+0.2#146

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#275
First Shot-5.6#334
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#26
Layups/Dunks-2.8#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#307
Freethrows-1.2#271
Improvement-1.6#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 95.1% 79.6% 98.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 30 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 85 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 297   @ Miami (OH) W 78-74 25%     1 - 0 -0.6 -3.5 +2.8
  Nov 12, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis L 65-83 4%     1 - 1 -8.7 -5.8 -2.6
  Nov 16, 2022 251   Southeast Missouri St. L 61-67 35%     1 - 2 -13.5 -15.1 +1.6
  Nov 19, 2022 167   @ SMU L 47-55 10%     1 - 3 -5.2 -22.1 +16.8
  Nov 23, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 56-76 3%     1 - 4 -8.9 -12.6 +4.5
  Nov 25, 2022 182   South Alabama L 67-78 15%     1 - 5 -11.5 -2.1 -9.9
  Nov 26, 2022 242   Robert Morris W 54-53 24%     2 - 5 -3.2 -12.3 +9.2
  Nov 27, 2022 232   Fairfield L 56-63 23%     2 - 6 -10.7 -16.9 +6.3
  Nov 30, 2022 130   Southern Illinois L 53-80 15%     2 - 7 -27.5 -15.2 -13.1
  Dec 03, 2022 160   @ Northern Iowa L 55-72 9%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -13.9 -12.1 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2022 255   Campbell W 72-66 35%     3 - 8 -1.6 -2.8 +1.5
  Dec 10, 2022 155   @ Ball St. L 69-88 9%     3 - 9 -15.7 -3.7 -11.9
  Dec 21, 2022 253   Bellarmine W 73-61 35%     4 - 9 +4.5 +0.1 +5.1
  Dec 29, 2022 117   @ Indiana St. L 63-91 7%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -22.5 -9.3 -12.3
  Jan 01, 2023 159   Murray St. L 61-78 19%     4 - 11 0 - 3 -19.4 -11.0 -9.3
  Jan 04, 2023 136   @ Missouri St. L 62-85 8%     4 - 12 0 - 4 -18.5 -6.9 -12.1
  Jan 07, 2023 234   Illinois St. L 61-69 31%     4 - 13 0 - 5 -14.5 -14.4 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2023 89   @ Bradley L 46-91 4%     4 - 14 0 - 6 -36.7 -19.7 -18.2
  Jan 14, 2023 267   Valparaiso L 69-76 38%     4 - 15 0 - 7 -15.3 -7.0 -8.3
  Jan 17, 2023 130   @ Southern Illinois L 70-77 7%     4 - 16 0 - 8 -2.0 -3.8 +2.4
  Jan 21, 2023 84   Drake L 61-97 9%     4 - 17 0 - 9 -32.6 -6.5 -27.6
  Jan 25, 2023 128   Belmont L 64-73 15%     4 - 18 0 - 10 -9.4 -11.1 +1.7
  Jan 28, 2023 267   @ Valparaiso L 69-81 20%     4 - 19 0 - 11 -14.8 -6.6 -7.7
  Feb 01, 2023 117   Indiana St. L 65-83 14%     4 - 20 0 - 12 -18.0 -8.6 -9.2
  Feb 04, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago L 65-74 19%    
  Feb 08, 2023 160   Northern Iowa L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 12, 2023 136   Missouri St. L 59-70 17%    
  Feb 15, 2023 128   @ Belmont L 64-81 6%    
  Feb 18, 2023 159   @ Murray St. L 62-77 8%    
  Feb 23, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 26, 2023 234   @ Illinois St. L 61-72 16%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 1 - 18





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 4.3 5.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.9 11th
12th 25.9 38.0 20.0 3.7 0.2 0.0 87.7 12th
Total 25.9 38.0 24.3 9.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 9.4% 9.4
2-18 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.3
1-19 38.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 38.0
0-20 25.9% 25.9
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 25.9%