Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.6 293
Results Rating -7.1 279
Consistency 0.16 231
Pace 67.2 216
Improvement -2.2 266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 286 C- D D D+ D-
Defense D+ 268 D+ C C- C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 B- 62% 87 -3.5 306
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 109 C 38% 166 +2.2 69
Three Pointers 43% 131 D+ 32% 263 +0.1 174
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 330 C +0.1 162
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 212
Second Chance F+ 21.8% 354 B- 1.11 70 D 0.24 327
Opponents' Steals D- 11.3% 324
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 190
Turnovers D 18.6% 303
Freethrows D+ 0.27 276 C+ 74% 154 D+ 0.20 252
Total Offense D+ -4.4 286

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 123 B- 9.2% 84
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 90 B 2.8% 41
Three Pointers C 85% 174 C+ 0.7% 131
Total C+ 58% 135 B+ 3.8% 20


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 314 C- 60% 224 -2.5 99
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 128 C 39% 217 +0.7 247
Three Pointers 45% 68 D- 38% 347 +4.8 344
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 84 D +3.5 314
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 278
Second Chance C- 31.7% 251 C+ 1.01 136 C 0.32 215
Turnovers from Steals D 7.5% 314
Other Turnovers B 8.4% 55
Turnovers C- 15.9% 229
Freethrows B- 0.27 89 D 75% 326 C+ 0.21 126
Total Defense D+ -3.2 268

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 188 C 11.1% 163
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 304 B 7.5% 50
Three Pointers D 89% 319 C- 0.6% 235
Total D+ 61% 298 C 5.6% 173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 297 16.4 29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 355 0.20 282
Consistency 0.14 269 0.13 228
Improvement +1.9 94 -4.2 341

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 295 293 291
Results Rating Rank 277 274 271
Conference Record 3 - 17 3 - 17 3 - 17
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 100 - 13
Quad 34 - 104 - 22
Quad 41 - 35 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 8 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  7% 0 - 1 D+ -8 F+ -10 F A+ B- C- -2 C A- D+
 Wed, Nov 12 162 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 33% -8  4% 0 - 2 D+ -8 D- -6 C D- D+ C- -2 D A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 175 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 36% -3  27% 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +4 C A+ C- F -16 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 160 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 23% +4  82% 1 - 3 C+ +4 C -0 D+ C+ D- B +4 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 69 Akron L 59 - 97 7% -13  3% 1 - 4 F -29 F -14 F+ A- F F -15 D- F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 144 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 21% -12  2% 1 - 5 F -18 F -15 F F C C- -3 F+ C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 282 Ball St. W 64 - 52 60% +1  51% 2 - 5 C+ +2 F -10 D+ F+ F A+ +13 B+ A A
 Sat, Dec 6 136 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 13% -3  43% 2 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ C D- C -0 D- B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 89 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 7% -11  1% 2 - 7 D- -15 F -11 C+ D F D+ -4 F+ A- B
 Tue, Dec 16 76 Belmont L 78 - 83 13% -7  0% 2 - 8 0 - 1 C -0 D -5 C- F+ C+ B +5 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 176 Drake L 65 - 66 36% -2  38% 2 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -5 F+ -9 F B+ F+ B +4 C- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 111 @Bradley L 68 - 76 10% +2  61% 2 - 10 0 - 3 C -2 D+ -3 D- C+ B+ C+ +2 B- A F
 Thu, Jan 1 101 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  9% 2 - 11 0 - 4 F -18 F -25 F F F B+ +7 C+ A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 84 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 14% -12  0% 2 - 12 0 - 5 D -10 F -17 D+ F F B +5 D- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 128 Murray St. L 69 - 79 25% -4  20% 2 - 13 0 - 6 D -11 F -11 C+ F F C+ +1 B- C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 192 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 21% +0  46% 3 - 13 1 - 6 C+ +4 D+ -4 B+ F F A- +8 A+ D- F+
 Tue, Jan 13 111 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 22% +3  55% 3 - 14 1 - 7 C- -4 B+ +8 A C- C- F -11 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 108 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 9% -13  11% 3 - 15 1 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F F C- -2 D D+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 176 @Drake L 78 - 82 18% +6  88% 3 - 16 1 - 9 C- -2 B +6 A+ F D+ D- -8 D+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 84 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 6% -16  5% 3 - 17 1 - 10 D+ -6 C -0 C C- A F+ -9 D- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 192 Indiana St. L 63 - 84 40% -15  1% 3 - 18 1 - 11 F -26 D- -7 D+ D C- F -22 F F F
 Fri, Feb 6 159 @Valparaiso L 63 - 70 OT 16% -1  25% 3 - 19 1 - 12 C- -4 F+ -9 C F D+ B+ +5 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 9 101 Illinois St. W 88 - 80 19% +9  82% 4 - 19 2 - 12 B +10 A+ +19 A+ D A+ F+ -9 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 124 @Southern Illinois L 60 - 86 11% -15  8% 4 - 20 2 - 13 F -20 D -5 C+ F D- F -16 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 108 Illinois-Chicago L 46 - 84 21% -16  0% 4 - 21 2 - 14 F -37 F -23 F F+ D+ F -17 F C- A
 Sat, Feb 21 128 @Murray St. L 75 - 88 12% -1  42% 4 - 22 2 - 15 D+ -8 D+ -3 B D C- D+ -4 C- B F
 Wed, Feb 25 76 @Belmont L 64 - 98 5% -19  0% 4 - 23 2 - 16 F -23 D- -7 C+ D- C F -17 F A F
 Sat, Feb 28 159 Valparaiso W 80 - 79 32% -1  29% 5 - 23 3 - 16 C- -2 B +7 C- B+ A- F+ -8 D A F
 Sun, Mar 1 124 Southern Illinois L 67 - 81 24% -4  11% 5 - 24 3 - 17 D- -14 C+ +3 B F A F -19 F+ B F
 Thu, Mar 5 84 Northern Iowa L 59 - 68 9% -4  1% 5 - 25 C- -2 C- -2 D+ B F+ C -1 A+ D F
Totals 5 - 25 3 - 17 -8 D+ -4 A- C D- D+ -3 D+ C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ B- C D+ C 30% 44% 43% D- C- F+ B- D D D+ C+ D+ D+ C- C D- D 33% 22% 45% B- D+ C- C+ C C- B- D C+
1.02 62% 38% 32% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .24 19% .27 74% .20 1.13 60% 39% 38% +3 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 16% .27 75% .20
Nov
4		 Purdue F+ C- F F F 17% 33% 50% D- F A+ D+ A+ B- F F F C- D+ B+ F C- 27% 23% 50% B C C A+ A- D+ C F D+
0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04 1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24
Nov
12		 Middle Tennessee D- B- A F B- 44% 31% 25% D- C F+ D+ D- D+ A D- B+ C- F F A+ F+ 27% 31% 42% A- D B+ A+ A+ C- D+ A+ C+
1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29 1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17
Nov
18		 Texas Arlington B- A F D- C 35% 26% 39% C C C- A+ A+ C- A+ C A+ F F F F F 33% 28% 38% A F F F F A+ F F F
1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39 1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42
Nov
21		 Oregon St. C A F D- C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B+ D C+ D- A+ A- A+ B A+ F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D+ A+ F F F B- D- F+ F
1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50 1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35
Nov
23		 Akron F B- A F D- 30% 26% 44% D- F+ D A+ A- F A+ F A+ F F F C- D- 42% 8% 50% F+ D- F F F C+ F B- F
0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29 1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35
Nov
24		 College of Charleston F D- C F F 47% 21% 32% B+ F F A+ F C A- C+ A- C- B+ D F F+ 31% 20% 49% C+ F+ B- C- C+ C+ C- C- C-
0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22 1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27
Dec
3		 Ball St. F A+ A- F D+ 26% 23% 51% D D+ D- D- F+ F B+ C B+ A+ B+ A B+ B 31% 25% 44% A- B+ B A+ A A C+ C- C+
0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27 0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
6		 Western Kentucky C+ A- D A+ A 12% 33% 56% F B+ B- D- C D- C F F+ C A- B F F+ 45% 24% 31% C+ D- F+ A+ B+ A F+ C+ D-
1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22 1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29
Dec
13		 Notre Dame F B- F+ C+ C+ 28% 22% 50% C C+ C- F D F D F F D+ A+ F+ F F 25% 29% 45% A F+ B+ A- A- B C+ C C+
0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15 1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Belmont D F D B+ C- 24% 19% 57% C- C- D- D- F+ C+ A+ A A+ B B+ A+ F A 50% 13% 37% C- A- A A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32 1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29
Dec
21		 Drake F+ F+ C+ F F 22% 36% 42% F F C- A+ B+ F+ A+ B- A+ B C D+ C- C 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C B C+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30 1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09
Dec
29		 Bradley D+ C- C+ D C- 17% 47% 36% F D- D A+ C+ B+ F C- F C+ F A+ D+ C 26% 39% 35% A+ B- C A+ A F C F+ D+
0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17 1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
1		 Illinois St. F D- F D+ F 21% 38% 40% F F D F F F D+ C D+ B+ C- D+ B- C+ 36% 23% 42% C+ C+ A+ D A+ F+ C- A C+
0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19 1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19
Jan
4		 Northern Iowa F A+ C- F D+ 42% 26% 33% C- D+ F B- F F C D+ C B A+ D+ F F+ 30% 21% 49% A- D- C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A- B-
0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18 0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15
Jan
7		 Murray St. F A+ A F B- 41% 35% 24% D- C+ F F F F B C+ B C+ C+ F A B 40% 17% 42% C- B- B+ F C+ D- F A D
0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25 1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29
Jan
10		 Indiana St. D+ D+ B A+ A- 38% 23% 39% C- B+ F A+ F F F A+ F A- B+ D A+ A+ 47% 13% 40% C+ A+ F C D- F+ D+ D+ D
1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07 0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20
Jan
13		 Bradley B+ A B+ A+ A+ 20% 36% 44% F A D A- C- C- A+ B- A+ F D+ F B F+ 40% 28% 32% B- D- D+ A+ B F D D+ D-
1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38 1.24 63% 59% 32% +6 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29
Jan
20		 Illinois-Chicago F F B F F 25% 11% 64% C+ F D+ F F F D- A+ D+ C- F F+ A+ F+ 43% 29% 27% B D B- F+ D+ F C- A+ B
0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21 1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21
Jan
28		 Drake B A+ B+ A+ A+ 23% 37% 40% F A+ F F F D+ F+ F F D- F F+ C D 18% 22% 60% A- D+ D+ A B- F+ F D+ F
1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13 1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47
Jan
31		 Northern Iowa C B+ A+ F B- 17% 30% 52% F C D- A+ C- A F A+ F F+ F F B F 31% 16% 53% B D- F+ F F A A+ D- A+
0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12 1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Indiana St. D- D- A+ F C+ 17% 40% 43% F D+ D- C- D C- A- F B- F D- C F F 37% 15% 48% A- F F F+ F F A A+ A
1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21 1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09
Feb
6		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F A+ C+ 35% 25% 39% D+ C F+ F F D+ F F F B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 38% 40% A A+ F F F A A F B
0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12 1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22
Feb
9		 Illinois St. A+ D+ A A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% D+ A+ F A+ D A+ B- A+ A F+ F A F F 29% 20% 52% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ C- B
1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27 1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17
Feb
12		 Southern Illinois D B+ B+ D+ B 21% 25% 55% D- C+ D- F F D- F B+ F F F A+ D- F 42% 13% 45% F F F F+ F C A F B
0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06 1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16
Feb
18		 Illinois-Chicago F A+ F F F 21% 19% 60% D F F A+ F+ D+ F F F F D- C+ F F 28% 22% 50% B+ F F+ B C- A A+ F A+
0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10 1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08
Feb
21		 Murray St. D+ A D+ B+ B+ 29% 25% 46% D B F A+ D C- F A+ F D+ C+ A+ F C- 29% 10% 61% C- C- B+ C+ B F F+ F F
1.04 69% 36% 38% +6 -1 1.11 7% 4.0 .27 17% .10 83% .08 1.22 57% 20% 40% +3 +1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 11% .41 92% .37
Feb
25		 Belmont D- A+ A F C+ 36% 18% 46% C+ C+ F A+ D- C F F F F B- A+ F F 31% 7% 62% C+ F C A+ A F A+ F A+
0.95 78% 44% 22% 0 0 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 18% .18 60% .11 1.45 59% 25% 62% +25 +1 1.55 28% 0.9 .24 13% .15 78% .12
Feb
28		 Valparaiso B C- F+ A C 39% 31% 31% D C- F A+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ F+ C+ C- F F 18% 39% 43% A+ D A+ F A F F F F
1.18 58% 27% 40% -1 -1 0.98 14% 2.8 .39 13% .37 95% .36 1.16 56% 37% 43% +5 -4 1.04 15% 1.4 .21 9% .45 86% .39
Mar
1		 Southern Illinois C+ B- B+ B- B+ 31% 22% 47% D+ B F F F A C+ A+ B+ F C- A+ F F+ 43% 22% 35% D F+ F A+ B F A- F C-
1.05 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.06 19% 0.3 .06 14% .29 81% .24 1.27 61% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 37% 0.6 .23 9% .22 92% .21
Mar
5		 Northern Iowa C- F D C+ D+ 27% 20% 53% D+ D+ C A B F+ B A A- C D- A- A+ A+ 29% 18% 53% B+ A+ F B+ D F F D+ F
0.94 33% 33% 33% -8 -1 0.84 26% 1.1 .29 22% .31 80% .25 1.08 67% 33% 19% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.0 .31 6% .37 73% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 100.0% 100.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%