Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#252
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#327
Pace66.9#262
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#293
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 8.9% 13.2% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 21.5% 10.9%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 24.7% 36.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 94 - 16
Quad 44 - 49 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 5   @ Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -8.6 -7.4 -5.4
  Nov 12, 2025 145   Middle Tennessee L 72-77 42%     0 - 2 -7.8 -2.5 -5.2
  Nov 18, 2025 210   Texas Arlington W 69-68 54%    
  Nov 21, 2025 120   Oregon St. L 63-70 25%    
  Dec 03, 2025 229   Ball St. W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 06, 2025 142   @ Western Kentucky L 69-77 23%    
  Dec 13, 2025 62   @ Notre Dame L 59-76 7%    
  Dec 16, 2025 113   Belmont L 71-76 35%    
  Dec 21, 2025 148   Drake L 64-66 44%    
  Dec 29, 2025 119   @ Bradley L 62-72 19%    
  Jan 01, 2026 111   @ Illinois St. L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 04, 2026 95   Northern Iowa L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 07, 2026 115   Murray St. L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 10, 2026 186   @ Indiana St. L 72-78 32%    
  Jan 13, 2026 119   Bradley L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 20, 2026 138   @ Illinois-Chicago L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 25, 2026 132   Southern Illinois L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 28, 2026 148   @ Drake L 61-69 25%    
  Jan 31, 2026 95   @ Northern Iowa L 59-72 14%    
  Feb 03, 2026 186   Indiana St. W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 06, 2026 291   @ Valparaiso L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 09, 2026 111   Illinois St. L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 12, 2026 132   @ Southern Illinois L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 18, 2026 138   Illinois-Chicago L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 21, 2026 115   @ Murray St. L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 25, 2026 113   @ Belmont L 68-79 19%    
  Feb 28, 2026 291   Valparaiso W 72-67 66%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 3.5 3.3 0.9 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.3 1.3 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.6 4.6 1.5 0.1 16.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.7 6.5 4.0 1.2 0.1 21.1 10th
11th 0.9 2.9 5.2 5.6 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 21.7 11th
Total 0.9 3.0 5.9 8.5 11.0 12.4 12.0 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.2 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 93.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 83.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 21.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 27.1% 27.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 31.0% 31.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 23.4% 23.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.1% 11.7% 11.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-7 1.8% 9.7% 9.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-8 2.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-9 3.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8
10-10 6.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.0
9-11 8.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 7.8
8-12 10.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
7-13 11.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.4
6-14 12.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-15 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-16 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
3-17 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-18 5.9% 5.9
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%