Evansville
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#245
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#288
Pace59.5#349
Improvement+0.2#153

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#257
First Shot+0.5#167
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks-5.7#338
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#23
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+2.5#15

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#233
First Shot-2.3#255
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#134
Layups/Dunks-3.4#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#106
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement-2.3#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.5
.500 or above 3.2% 5.8% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 18.1% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.2% 21.7% 42.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 61 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 17
Quad 47 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 43-65 8%     0 - 1 -10.7 -20.3 +8.8
  Nov 11, 2021 336   IUPUI W 60-40 85%     1 - 1 +4.8 -8.2 +16.1
  Nov 13, 2021 68   @ Belmont L 43-81 9%     1 - 2 -27.7 -24.6 -4.6
  Nov 20, 2021 65   Central Florida L 59-75 20%     1 - 3 -11.6 -5.9 -7.3
  Nov 22, 2021 184   Rice L 104-109 3OT 38%     1 - 4 -6.1 +5.5 -10.6
  Nov 23, 2021 104   Vermont L 49-58 21%     1 - 5 -4.7 -15.1 +9.7
  Nov 24, 2021 165   Akron L 60-69 33%     1 - 6 -8.9 -3.7 -6.4
  Nov 28, 2021 347   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-54 73%     2 - 6 +5.2 +0.4 +6.2
  Dec 01, 2021 154   Southern Illinois L 59-61 41%    
  Dec 04, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 69-64 67%    
  Dec 08, 2021 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 18, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin W 72-60 87%    
  Dec 21, 2021 99   @ SMU L 61-73 13%    
  Jan 02, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 05, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 08, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 12, 2022 213   @ Bradley L 59-64 31%    
  Jan 15, 2022 58   Drake L 59-68 20%    
  Jan 18, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 54-67 11%    
  Jan 23, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 26, 2022 112   Northern Iowa L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 61-74 12%    
  Feb 01, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso L 60-65 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 213   Bradley W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 09, 2022 174   Indiana St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois L 56-64 24%    
  Feb 16, 2022 58   @ Drake L 56-71 9%    
  Feb 19, 2022 204   Valparaiso W 63-62 53%    
  Feb 23, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 51-70 4%    
  Feb 26, 2022 93   Missouri St. L 64-71 26%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.9 3rd
4th 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.5 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.7 5.2 1.4 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 6.8 6.4 1.7 0.0 17.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.4 7.8 5.7 1.9 0.1 20.9 9th
10th 0.8 3.2 6.7 7.2 4.5 0.9 0.1 23.5 10th
Total 0.8 3.2 7.7 11.9 14.7 15.2 15.1 12.2 8.3 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5 5.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.4% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 2.9
9-9 5.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.3
8-10 8.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.2
7-11 12.2% 12.2
6-12 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 15.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.1
4-14 14.7% 14.7
3-15 11.9% 11.9
2-16 7.7% 7.7
1-17 3.2% 3.2
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%