Bradley
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#92
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#114
Pace65.8#257
Improvement-0.4#240

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#135
First Shot+0.9#151
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#148
Layup/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#40
Freethrows-2.0#320
Improvement+0.9#45

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#68
First Shot+4.0#65
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks+2.6#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#91
Freethrows-1.6#289
Improvement-1.4#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 25.1% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 99.0% 93.8%
Conference Champion 16.3% 20.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round24.0% 25.0% 21.5%
Second Round4.5% 4.9% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 22 - 6
Quad 36 - 48 - 10
Quad 412 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 52   @ Utah St. L 62-84 25%     0 - 1 -9.5 -9.4 +0.4
  Nov 15, 2022 315   Eastern Michigan W 89-61 93%     1 - 1 +16.8 +5.5 +10.3
  Nov 19, 2022 250   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-60 88%     2 - 1 +5.6 +2.0 +4.4
  Nov 22, 2022 30   Auburn L 64-85 25%     2 - 2 -8.5 -0.4 -8.2
  Nov 23, 2022 69   Liberty L 44-55 40%     2 - 3 -3.0 -13.5 +8.0
  Nov 26, 2022 337   Merrimack W 83-41 95%     3 - 3 +28.5 +9.9 +18.9
  Nov 30, 2022 165   Northern Iowa W 68-53 77%     4 - 3 +12.5 +2.7 +11.6
  Dec 03, 2022 138   @ Missouri St. W 58-40 53%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +22.5 -4.2 +29.2
  Dec 06, 2022 237   @ SIU Edwardsville W 56-54 74%     6 - 3 +0.8 -10.5 +11.5
  Dec 17, 2022 21   @ Arkansas L 57-76 15%     6 - 4 -2.7 -7.3 +5.0
  Dec 19, 2022 340   Stonehill W 79-50 95%     7 - 4 +15.2 +4.0 +12.4
  Dec 22, 2022 113   Akron W 74-55 69%     8 - 4 +19.4 +3.9 +16.0
  Dec 28, 2022 127   @ Belmont L 60-63 51%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +2.0 -6.6 +8.4
  Dec 31, 2022 264   Illinois-Chicago W 79-45 89%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +25.9 +6.0 +21.0
  Jan 04, 2023 161   @ Murray St. L 58-67 59%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -5.9 -10.6 +4.1
  Jan 07, 2023 268   Valparaiso W 88-66 89%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +13.8 +20.1 -4.4
  Jan 11, 2023 341   Evansville W 91-46 95%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +31.0 +16.2 +16.1
  Jan 14, 2023 84   @ Drake L 61-86 37%     11 - 7 4 - 3 -16.1 +1.3 -20.4
  Jan 18, 2023 124   @ Indiana St. W 78-67 51%     12 - 7 5 - 3 +16.2 +2.4 +13.0
  Jan 21, 2023 127   Belmont L 76-78 71%     12 - 8 5 - 4 -2.3 +3.1 -5.4
  Jan 25, 2023 235   Illinois St. W 79-75 OT 87%     13 - 8 6 - 4 -2.5 -3.3 +0.4
  Jan 29, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-76 78%     14 - 8 7 - 4 +4.2 +14.9 -10.2
  Feb 01, 2023 130   Southern Illinois W 64-58 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 165   @ Northern Iowa W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2023 235   @ Illinois St. W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 11, 2023 161   Murray St. W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 15, 2023 138   Missouri St. W 66-60 74%    
  Feb 19, 2023 130   @ Southern Illinois W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 22, 2023 268   @ Valparaiso W 70-62 78%    
  Feb 26, 2023 84   Drake W 66-64 59%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.3 8.8 5.1 16.3 1st
2nd 0.9 11.5 7.2 0.5 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.9 11.3 0.9 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 11.5 1.9 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 6.0 4.9 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 6.8 0.6 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.6 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.7 16.6 24.8 27.0 16.9 5.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 91.6% 5.1    3.6 1.4 0.1
14-6 52.1% 8.8    2.0 4.2 2.4 0.2
13-7 8.6% 2.3    0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 5.6 5.9 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 5.6% 31.4% 29.6% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 3.8 2.5%
14-6 16.9% 29.5% 29.5% 12.2 0.6 3.0 1.4 0.0 11.9
13-7 27.0% 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 12.5 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.4 20.1 0.0%
12-8 24.8% 22.7% 22.7% 12.9 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.0 0.0 19.2
11-9 16.6% 19.8% 19.8% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.0 13.3
10-10 6.7% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 5.6
9-11 2.0% 15.3% 15.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7
8-12 0.4% 14.6% 14.6% 15.0 0.1 0.4
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 23.9% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 1.9 8.8 9.8 3.3 0.3 76.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 31.4% 11.5 0.4 16.4 12.7 2.0