Bradley
Missouri Valley
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#72
Expected Predictive Rating+17.7#15
Pace64.3#305
Improvement+0.0#178

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#110
First Shot+1.2#146
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#130
Layup/Dunks-0.4#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#105
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+1.3#55

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#41
First Shot+3.5#84
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#67
Layups/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement-1.3#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.0% 3.9% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.5% 36.1% 24.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.8% 16.7% 7.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 11.2
.500 or above 98.9% 99.5% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 95.1% 82.8%
Conference Champion 31.8% 37.5% 18.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four5.5% 6.3% 3.7%
First Round29.9% 33.0% 22.3%
Second Round9.9% 11.2% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.4% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 25 - 35 - 4
Quad 310 - 315 - 7
Quad 47 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 115   @ UAB W 73-71 OT 53%     1 - 0 +8.5 -2.2 +10.6
  Nov 11, 2023 57   Utah St. W 72-66 OT 54%     2 - 0 +12.2 -3.7 +15.3
  Nov 14, 2023 174   Tarleton St. W 86-63 84%     3 - 0 +19.5 +15.6 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2023 95   Tulane W 80-77 58%     4 - 0 +8.2 +9.0 -0.8
  Nov 22, 2023 151   UTEP W 63-59 73%     5 - 0 +4.8 -5.6 +10.4
  Nov 25, 2023 101   Vermont W 79-70 71%     6 - 0 +10.5 +9.0 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2023 189   @ Murray St. W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 02, 2023 85   Indiana St. W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 05, 2023 114   @ Akron W 66-65 53%    
  Dec 15, 2023 167   Cleveland St. W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 18, 2023 88   Duquesne W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 21, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville W 70-56 91%    
  Jan 03, 2024 315   @ Valparaiso W 71-58 87%    
  Jan 06, 2024 100   Missouri St. W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 10, 2024 201   Evansville W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 120   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 17, 2024 143   @ Southern Illinois W 64-61 60%    
  Jan 20, 2024 179   Belmont W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 24, 2024 189   Murray St. W 74-62 84%    
  Jan 27, 2024 85   @ Indiana St. L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 31, 2024 110   Northern Iowa W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 03, 2024 229   @ Illinois St. W 66-58 75%    
  Feb 07, 2024 201   @ Evansville W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 84   Drake W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 14, 2024 120   Illinois-Chicago W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 18, 2024 110   @ Northern Iowa W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 21, 2024 100   @ Missouri St. L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 24, 2024 229   Illinois St. W 69-55 89%    
  Feb 28, 2024 143   Southern Illinois W 67-58 78%    
  Mar 03, 2024 84   @ Drake L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.7 8.1 7.8 5.1 2.4 0.4 31.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.9 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 5.5 4.5 1.3 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 4.6 3.7 0.8 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 5.8 7.7 10.9 12.9 14.1 12.6 11.0 8.5 5.1 2.4 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.4    2.4
18-2 99.6% 5.1    4.9 0.2
17-3 92.7% 7.8    6.7 1.1 0.0
16-4 73.5% 8.1    5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 45.5% 5.7    2.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.1% 2.0    0.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 22.7 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 98.9% 55.1% 43.8% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
19-1 2.4% 96.5% 51.3% 45.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.9%
18-2 5.1% 85.9% 43.6% 42.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.7 75.0%
17-3 8.5% 66.9% 32.8% 34.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 2.8 50.8%
16-4 11.0% 54.3% 33.0% 21.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.0 31.8%
15-5 12.6% 35.5% 25.0% 10.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 1.5 0.1 8.1 14.0%
14-6 14.1% 25.2% 20.7% 4.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.5 5.7%
13-7 12.9% 18.0% 17.2% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.6 1.0%
12-8 10.9% 15.6% 15.5% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 9.2 0.1%
11-9 7.7% 9.0% 8.6% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.0 0.5%
10-10 5.8% 9.7% 9.7% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.3
9-11 4.0% 7.5% 7.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7
8-12 2.4% 5.2% 5.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.1% 5.4% 5.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.5% 21.8% 10.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.0 4.5 10.3 8.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 67.5 13.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.4 8.3 11.9 35.7 31.0 8.3 2.4 1.2 1.2